Most of the high-level German cycling races have disappeared in a cloud of doping suspicion but the big European country still has one event on the finest calendar. The EuroEyes Cyclassics offers the sprinters a rare chance to go for glory in a WorldTour one-day race but don't be fooled by the seemingly flat nature of the course. The Waseberg, a 15% ramp in Western Hamburg, has to be tackled 4 times in the final part and threatens to ruin the race for any sprinter who hasn't turned on his climbing legs. At the same time, classics specialists are on the outlook for chances to foil the sprinters' plans in what is usually an aggressive and high-speed finale.

 

Germany once had a very rich cycling calendar with numerous week-long stage races and a couple of high-level one-day races. Bayern Rundfahrt, Hessen Rundfahrt, Sachsen Tour, Niedersachsen Rundfahrt and Rheinland-Pfalz Rundfahrt were just some of the races that joined up with the national Deutschland Tour and one-day races like HEW Cyclassics (later Vattenfall Cyclassics and now EuroEyes Cyclassics), Rund um den Henninger Turm (now Escborn Frankfurt City Loop), Rund um Köln and Rund um die Braunkohle to form a rich and diverse cycling scene.

 

No other country has been more affected by the massive doping suspicion than Germany which is now left with very few events to showcase its many fine cycling talents. The race in Bayern was the lone survivor of the stage races until it was cancelled last winter while the Frankfurt and Köln one-day races have been in a constant survival battle. A new race has been established in Berlin but it has already disappeared again. The return of the Deutschland Tour and the promotion of the Rund um den Finanzplatz to the WorldTour have slightly changed the trend but the calendar is still far from what it once was.

 

However, one race appears to be largely unaffected by the dramatic turbulence in Germany. Despite its short history, EuroEyes Cyclassics has established itself firmly on the WorldTour calendar as one of the biggest one-day races in the late summer and combines the elite race with a cyclosportive event which has developed into one of the largest and most popular in Europe. On a big Sunday in August, the race gathers thousands of amateurs who test themselves on the same roads that form the scene of one of the biggest bike races in the world.

 

Held in the Northern city of Hamburg, the race was created in 1996 and set to take place in one of the flattest parts of Germany. At that point, German cycling was at an all-time high with Jan Ullrich winning the Tour de France one year later and Erik Zabel dominating the points competition several years in a row. Ullrich honoured his home event by taking the win during his Tour-winning season and just one year later, the new event had made the big step onto the calendar of the finest one-day races: the World Cup.

 

It remained part of that series until its demise at the end of the 2004 season and was immediately included in the ProTour from the start of the next season. It has remained part of cycling's top calendar ever since and is an important late-season event for the sprinters.

 

The area around Hamburg is dead-flat and the terrain offers very few opportunities for a selective bike race. What makes the race tougher than most other flat races is the 217.7km distance and the race's landmark climb. The 800m, 15% Waseberg is a short ramp in Western Hamburg that spices up the race finale. As is common in most bike races, the organizers have tried to make the race more selective by gradually adding more passages of the steep slopes and in the last few years, the sprinters have had to survive the climb four times - the last one just 15.5km from the finish - to get a chance to go for glory in the high-speed finale on Mönckebergstrasse in central Hamburg. However, the 2015 edition bucked the trend as the distance had been shortened and one passage of the Waseberg was removed. This year the riders will again have to tackle the climb four times.

 

The Waseberg and the distance mean that the race is not one for every kind of sprinter. Only the toughest in the business have a chance to win Germany's biggest one-day race and it is no coincidence that no more than 30 riders finished in the same time as the winner in 2011 and 2012. Constant attacks have traditionally been  launched up the Waseberg in what is usually an uncontrollable finale and it requires a dedicated effort from the sprint teams to bring it back together for what is usually a confusing sprint.

 

Many have tried to foil the sprinters but few have had success. Alessandro Ballan was the most recent attacker to prevail in Hamburg in 2007 and before that we have to go all the way back to the 2003 edition when an in-form Jan Ullrich blew the race to pieces on the Waseberg, only for Paolo Bettini take the win from a small breakaway. The eight most recent editions have all finished in sprints, with Robbie McEwen, Tyler Farrar (twice), Edvald Boasson Hagen, Arnaud Demare, John Degenkolb Alexandre Kristoff and  André Greipel coming out on top.

 

Originally, the race was held just one week after the end of the Tour de France and so attracted many of the in-form Tour sprinters. In recent years, the race has been rescheduled to the weekend of the Vuelta start, with the Clasica San Sebastian taking over its former slot and benefiting from the in-form Tour climbers. Surprisingly, it seems that the new slot has boosted the start list. In the past, the sprinters were often too tired after three weeks of survival. Nowadays they have had several weeks of rest and this means that the start list includes almost every sprinter that is not at the Vuelta. The competition from the Spanish grand tour is limited as its mountainous course means that only a select few fast finishers have travelled to Spain for the grand tour and this year almost every top sprinter will be at the start.

 

Now EuroEyes Cyclassics kicks off an important series of European autumn classics that suit the same kind of riders and also includes the hillier GP Plouay and the Brussels Cycling Classic (formerly Paris-Bruxelles). Combined with the Eneco Tour which often fields many of the same riders (but has been postponed to September in 2016), those races give sprinters and classics specialists many opportunities to go for all-important points in the late summer and early autumn and as the Vuelta offers very few sprint finishes, most of them focus on this block of racing in Northern Europe. With this year’s Worlds course suiting this kind of riders, this block has only become even more important in 2016.

 

Last year André Greipel finally got what seemed to be a long overdue first win in a WorldTour classic when he powered to victory in his home race. Bouncing back from an earlier crash and benefiting from the great form that allowed him to win four stages at the Tour, Greipel beat defending champion Alexander Kristoff and Giacomo Nizzolo when it all came down to the expected bunch sprint in Hamburg. This year Greipel will try to defend his title but he will again have to beat Kristoff and Nizzolo who will try to do better than they did 12 months ago.

 

The course

With very few topographical challenges in the area around Hamburg, it is no wonder that EuroEyes Cyclassics is a race for sprinters. As the race is set to finish in the city centre which is dead-flat, it is even harder for the organizers to put together a tougher race that can produce a selection. Luckily, the short, steep Waseberg is located not too far from the finish line and the ascent has become the race’s landmark climb. As said, the organizers have tried to toughen up the course by adding more passages of the feared climb but so far the change hasn't been enough to prevent a sprint finish. However, it has had a clear effect on the toughness of the race as we have seen some rather small groups arriving at the finish for the sprint in most of the recent editions.

 

After a few years where the organizers tried to change things a bit to find their best formula for the race, they seemed to have found the ideal course which has not been changed for a couple of years. The 2012-2014 had almost identical courses but last year the organizers have introduced a novelty. Instead of the traditional start in Hamburg, the riders took off from Köln which meant that the distance was shortened from 247.2km to 221.3km. Hence, the flat opening part of the race was changed and the finale was modified too as one passage of the Waseberg was skipped, meaning that the riders just had to do the climb thrice.

 

This year the race will again kick off in Hamburg and the course closely resembles the one that was used two years ago. The Waseberg will again be climbed four times but they have maintained the shorter distance. However, the shorter distance has mainly been obtained by reducing the distance between the second and third passage of the climb and so the race may be harder than it has ever been.

 

The 217.7km race will kick off in central Hamburg and head south onto a big, almost completely flat loop in the area just south of the big city. This is usually the scene for the creation of an early breakaway. As soon as the day's escape has been created, the race settles into a steady rhythm with the group getting a rather large gap and the sprint teams keeping everything under control. The peloton will climb one small ascent early on but the main purpose of this early section is to build up the distance and accumulate fatigue in the riders' legs. If it’s windy, the race can be nervous but otherwise, it usually pans out as a traditional sprint race.

 

Having returned to Hamburg, the riders won't pass the finish line but head onto another big loop which traverses the area just west of the city. That one is similarly flat but when the peloton reaches the Elbe river to head back along its shores to the city centre, they will be faced with the first passage of the Waseberg. 82.3km still remain and we should not expect too much action at this early point of the race. We may see an attack be launched at this point but don't expect to see any of the potential race winners make a move this early in the race. It is also likely that a few teams will try to ride tempo up the climb to make the race as hard as possible for the likes of Marcel Kittel. From here they will follow the traditional route back to the finish line which they will cross for the first time with 66.9km to go.

 

 

In the past, the riders have done another full lap of the circuit but this has now been skipped. Instead, they riders will do the small city loop to head back along the Elbe to a small circuit that includes the Waseberg. It is 12.8km long and mostly flat but includes the climb as a cruel challenge. For the first time ever, the riders will do three laps of the circuit. The race will now be in its finale and the pace kept extremely high as there will be a fierce battle for positions during the run-in to the climb and the pace will only be higher for every passage. The riders will pass the climb with 41.8km, 29.0km and 16.2km remaining.

 

This is where the race really kicks into life. Usually, the early break has been reeled in or is now within shouting distance and it is now time for the classics riders to make their marks. They may attack on the Waseberg itself but very often the best time to launch a move comes just after the top when everybody is on their limit.

 

Usually, a small group forms after each passage of the climb and it now takes a little time for the sprint teams to get reorganized. It requires a determined effort from them to keep the breaks under control while the sprinters themselves have to dig deep to not get dropped on the climb.

 

Having finished the third lap on the circuit, the riders speed along flat roads on the shores of the river back to the centre. This is often the scene of a hectic pursuit where the peloton desperately tries to reel in the late attackers. However, the roads are completely flat and not very technical, clearly favouring the peloton over the escapees who also have to try to figure out how to beat their companions.

 

The final turn is located 2km from the finish and from there the road only bends gradually. It is slightly downhill until they pass the flamme rouge and then the final 500m are very slightly uphill on the famous Mönckebergstrasse. The usual sprint is not your typical bunch sprint as domestique resources are limited at the end of a long, hard race. Anarchy rules and luck and positioning are crucial as no team can expect to give their sprinter a perfect lead-out. Many riders have seen their dreams vanish when they were boxed in and it is not always the fastest sprinter that wins the EuroEyes Cyclassics.

 

 

 

The weather

Held in Northern Germany, the race can be marked by wind and rain but sometimes the riders have had very unusual conditions for the race. Four years ago the race was done under extremely hot conditions which turned it into a real race of attrition. Due to the relatively easy course, the weather plays a huge role in determining the toughness of the race.

 

Last year the riders also had great summer weather but this year things will be trickier. There will be great sunshine at the start but in the early part of the race there is a 50% chance of rain. In the finale there will be a 20% risk of a shower. The temperature will be 21 degrees.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a southwesterly direction and this means that it will be a cross-headwind in the first part and then a cross-tailwind during the run back to Hamburg. Then it will be a cross-headwind on the way out to the Waseberg and a cross-tailwind on the way back to the finish. It will be a tailwind sprint.

 

The favourites

In theory, the Waseberg offers the perfect launch pad for a late attack and in a race of 217km with three late passages of such a steep ascent, it may be a bit of a surprise that the sprinters have dominated things as much as they have. The inclusion of more passages of the climb has whittled down the size of the peloton but it hasn’t prevented the sprinters from ruling in Hamburg.

 

However, the race’s reputation as a sprint race has made the bunch sprint a self-fulfilling prophecy. No teams go to this race without a sprinter on their roster and everybody is prepared for a sprint finish. Several teams go into the race with the only plan being a bunch sprint. A lot of teams hope to go on the attack but as they have a sprinter as a back-up, they are keen to lend a hand to the chase if they miss the breaks in the finale. That means that several teams are usually willing to do the work and this makes it virtually impossible to avoid the bunch sprint. Furthermore, they only know whether their sprinter has made the selection when they have crested the summit and at that point it is too late to change things.

 

This year it is unlikely to be any different. The fact that the second passage of the climb comes closer to the finish is likely to make the race a bit harder and the weather will also be worse than it has been in recent years. It will be windier than usual but history shows that it rarely plays a big role. Importantly, it will be the first time in some years that we will have a tailwind in the run-in to the finish so overall the chance to deny the sprinters is a bit higher than it has been in the past.

 

Still we find it very hard to believe that it won’t be another sprint. Almost all the big sprinters are in the race and Katusha, Etixx-QuickStep, Lotto Soudal, Giant-Alpecin, FDJ, Trek and Dimension Data will all be going all out for a sprint finish. Only a few select teams, most notably BMC and Tinkoff, really want to animate the race and as the best classics riders aren’t here, it should be a bunch kick.

 

The fact that Marcel Kittel and Mark Cavendish line up in this year’s race with a very uncertain preparation may change the dynamics slightly. Everybody wants to drop the fastest sprinters before they get to the finish in Hamburg and this means that teams like Katusha, Lotto Soudal, FDJ and Giant-Alpecin will maybe try to make things hard. It won’t be easy but they may try to apply some pressure earlier on.

 

On paper, Kittel, Greipel and Cavendish are the fastest riders in the race but the sprint in Vattenfall Cyclassics is not your usual bunch kick. Coming at the end of almost 220km, it has traditionally been more suited to classics riders. This year the stronger guys should relish the harder course and this will give them a better chance to beat the faster riders. At the same time, none of the three big sprinters have raced on the road since the Tour and this turns the race into a pretty open affair.

 

Nonetheless, Marcel Kittel features on top of our list of favourites. The German didn’t have the Tour that he had hoped for and it all ended in huge frustration when a mechanical destroyed his sprint in Paris. However, the race still showed that Kittel is the fastest sprinter in the bunch and it was only failed lead-outs that prevented him from winning more stages than one. Very often he had to start his sprints from way too far back and that allowed a smart Cavendish to use better positioning to beat him on several occasions.

 

Kittel hasn’t made any public appearances since the post-Tour criteriums and he has said nothing about his form. He is likely to have had a good rest after the Tour as he has to be fresh in October for the Worlds. However, this is still his biggest home race and so it is a very important event for him. At the same time, it is a crucial test for the German Cycling Federation when it comes to selecting the leader for the German Worlds team. Both Greipel and Kittel want to be the sole leader and this could be the only chance for them to sprint again each other at the end of a race of classics distance before we get to the big race in Qatar. This must have motivated Kittel so we expect him to come into the race in good form. If he was not competitive, it would be the wisest decision to skip the race.

 

Kittel has never won the race but in 2014 he sprinted to sixth place, proving that he can survive the Waseberg. Last year he was in terrible form but he still only cracked a few metres from the top of the final passage of the climb. This year he has been climbing better than ever so even though the course is harder, we expect him to be there in the finale.

 

If it comes down to a battle of pure speed, Kittel is the fastest but much will depend on the lead-out. For this race, he will have an excellent train. Only Maximilano Richeze will be missing but he can rely on the likes of Fabio Sabatini and the two in-form riders Tom Boonen and Matteo Trentin. They should be able to go up against the Lotto Soudal train and the tailwind sprint is perfect for Kittel as it can allow him to go from afar even if he is not at the very front. Everything depends on his form but as we expect him to have maintained his high level, Kittel is our favourite to win the race.

 

Last year André Greipel won the race at a time when he was totally unstoppable. This year he returns as the defending champion but his Tour was less smooth. Greipel suffered throughout the entire race until he finally saved things by winning the final stage on the Champs-Elysees.

 

In many ways, Greipel finds himself in a situation that is very similar to Kittel’s. He didn’t have the Tour he had hoped for, he hasn’t raced since the post-Tour criteriums and his form is a big question mark. Furthermore, the Worlds will make him extra motivated and he will be just as fired up as his rival to lay claim on the German captaincy. Greipel has a history of coming out strong after the Tour and he has usually won at least one stage in the Eneco Tour which is his first race back. This year the Belgian-Dutch stage race has been postponed so now he hasn’t done any warm-up race and this makes things a bit more uncertain.

 

Greipel is more of a guarantee than Kittel. He is more consistent and a much better climber. In a flat sprint, he is not as fast of his compatriot but at the end of 220km in windy conditions and after four passages of the Waseberg, things may be different. Furthermore, he is surrounded by excellent train as only Greg Henderson will be missing from the line-up. Marcel Sieberg, Jurgen Roelandts and Jens Debusschere are all there and they have much more experience in working together than the Etixx train.

 

However, the train didn’t work perfectly in the Tour and they were not their usual dominant self. At the same time, Greipel wasn’t too convincing in the sprints and he doesn’t seem to have the speed and confidence of last year. He is far less of a favourite than last year but he still has a very good chance to defend the title. The tailwind power sprint suits him really well, he has the best train and he is the strongest of the three fastest sprinters. If Lotto Soudal can do things well in the finale, Kittel has to be right on his wheel to beat him.

 

The in-form sprinter at the moment is John Degenkolb. The 2013 winner has had a horrible year but the Tour de France has done him well. He showed clear signs of progress towards the end of the French race and he came out of the race in good form. At last week’s Arctic Race of Norway, he finally looked like his former self. He may only have won the final stage but he was clearly the fastest rider in the race and it was only mechanicals that prevented him from winning the first two stages too.

 

The race proved that Degenkolb has rediscovered his former speed but more importantly he has become better at positioning. This has always been his big challenge but he did that really well in Norway. The lead-out worked well and he will have an even stronger train at his disposal here as Albert Timmer and Bert De Backer have been added.

 

However, the biggest advantage for Degenkolb is the fact that the sprint comes at the end of a long, hard race. Only Alexander Kristoff is faster than the German at the end of a race of attrition and while the race will take the sting out of the legs of Kittel, Greipel and Cavendish, Degenkolb will only become stronger. If the big guys are not firing on all cylinders and Degenkolb can get the positioning right, he could very well take a second win in his home classic.

 

Mark Cavendish was the dominant sprinter in this year’s Tour but he has had a far less ideal build-up to this race. Less than one week before the start, he was riding on the track in Rio and he has probably not done any real work on the road since he abandoned the Tour. He is probably mainly in this race to start his build-up for Doha and if it hadn’t been for the Worlds, he would probably be on holiday now.

 

We doubt that Cavendish has the endurance to be competitive at the end of 217km but we won’t rule him out. After all he is currently in outstanding form and that can bring him far in this race. He has his lead-out from the Tour at his disposal and they showed that they know how to position their sprinter on the right wheel in the finale. Cavendish has proved that he has the speed to beat everyone so if he can survive the Waseberg, he may again use his smart positioning to take a big win.

 

Alexander Kristoff won the race in 2014 and finished second in last year’s race. However, the Norwegian hasn’t had much success in the sprints this year. He was good in the second half of the Tour but he didn’t really shine at the Arctic Race of Norway where Degenkolb was clearly the faster rider. At the same time, his usually flawless lead-out train mistimed things completely in his home race and they haven’t really been great this year.

 

Nonetheless, Kristoff will always be a strong contender in this race. His main strength is his ability to sprint at the end of a long, hard race and this is exactly what he will have to do in Hamburg. In the past, he has won almost all the sprints he has done in the classics whether it’s been for the win or a minor placing. This race is not the hard as the biggest one-day races but it’s still not comparable to a sprint in the Tour. He has a better train than Degenkolb and is better at positioning so if the faster guys are tired, Kristoff can win the race again.

 

Danny Van Poppel has never had much success in the classics but he definitely has the potential. He climbs pretty well and is very fast and at the moment he is in the form of his life. He won two stages in the Vuelta a Burgos and beat the likes of Kristoff, Degenkolb and Demare in Norway. His confidence is huge and in this race he should be the Sky leader. Elia Viviani is usually the preferred sprinter but he is coming off the track so Van Poppel should be given the nod. With the likes of Viviani, Ben Swift and Andrew Fenn, he has a really good lead-out and he has proved that he has the speed to beat the big favourites.

 

Giacomo Nizzolo has been on the podium in this race twice but this year his form isn’t ideal. He has just done one race to since his win at Nationals and he was clearly not at his best in the Arctic Race of Norway. He didn’t have his usual speed and despite good positioning he was not able to match the likes of Kristoff and Degenkolb. However, he can’t be ruled out in a race that suits him really well. He has been climbing better than ever in 2016 and is a stronger guy than the fastest sprinters. Last year he didn’t do well in the Eneco Tour but he was still on the podium in Hamburg. At the same time, he has a great train at his side and they worked very well in Norway. If he has found those extra percentages by doing four days of racing in Norway, he should be up there.

 

Orica-BikeExchange go into the race with Caleb Ewan as their leader. The Australian had a storming start to the season but in Europe he has had a harder time. He didn’t really shine in the Giro where a second place was his best result and he had to settle for two third places at the Tour de Pologne. However, his performance in Kuurne earlier in the year proves that he can be up there in hard races and in the past he has proved that he is a much better climber than most of the sprinters. He has shown that he has the speed to beat everyone so it will all depend on whether he can finally find the legs that allowed him to win a stage at last year’s Vuelta.

 

If Kittel is not at his best, Etixx-QuickStep can still win the race. Tom Boonen has been in outstanding form since he extended his contract. He won a stage in Wallonia and won the RideLondon Classic with a very impressive sprint. Unlike Kittel, he specializes in sprints after long, hard races so he is much more of a guarantee. If Kittel falls behind, Boonen will have one of the best trains at his side. On paper, Kristoff and Degenkolb are faster but you can’t rule an in-form Boonen out after 217km of tough racing.

 

Arnaud Demare is a former winner of this race and he has been in really great form since he made his return to racing at the Tour de Wallonie. He climbed excellently in that race but bad luck took him out of contention in the sprints. In the Arctic Race of Norway, he was again up there but unfortunately it seems that his good climbing has cost him a bit of speed. FDJ did a great lead-out work but Demare wasn’t able to match Kristoff and Degenkolb. He likes to sprint at the end of a hard race and is definitely a podium candidate but we doubt that he will win the race.

 

LottoNL-Jumbo have Moreno Hofland who is still aiming for his first success in the classics. The Dutchman may not have won anything in 2016 but he has actually been sprinting better than ever. With little support, he did very well in the Giro where he often came fast from far back and he confirmed his speed in Norway where he did really well despite his poor positioning. He is a stronger guy than most so he should be there in the finale and his form is good. Unfortunately, LottoNL-Jumbo don’t have the train to compete with the best and he may again have to start his sprint from too far back.

 

Nacer Bouhanni has had a frustrating season. After his hotel altercation, he had to skip the Tour with an injured hand and his return to racing has been far from successful. He was dropped in the finale of La Polynormande, he failed to play a role in Hageland and this week he didn’t have much success in the sprints at the Tour du Limousin where he abandoned the queen stage after having been dropped early. Nothing suggests that Bouhanni has the form to win this race but you still can’t rule him out. On paper, he climbs better than the pure sprinters and he is still one of the fastest here.

 

Elia Viviani is usually the number one sprinter in the Sky hierarchy but in this race he will probably work for Van Poppel. He has just returned from Rio where he won the gold medal in the omnium and so he has had a far from ideal preparation. Even with a perfect build-up, this race is not ideal for the Italian as the hard course could take the sting out of his legs. On the other hand, his form is clearly at an all-time high and he will be keen to prove himself for the World Championships. He has proved that he can beat the likes of Kittel and Greipel so if he is feeling good in the finale, he may get his chance.

 

Finally, we will point to Sacha Modolo. The Italian has not had his best year and the loss of Maximilano Richeze has made him far less competitive in the sprints. His lead-out is no longer as strong and he is not as fast as the best sprinters. However, he showed solid form at the Czech Cycling Tour where he won a stage and he usually benefits from a hard race. With a bit more racing than the biggest favourites and a good lead-out from Roberto Ferrari, he may be able to achieve a good result here.

 

Note: Dylan Groenewegen is a late addition to the start list and doesn't feature in the analysis.

 

Note 2: Cavendish will skip the race

 

***** Marcel Kittel

**** André Greipel, John Degenkolb

*** Mark Cavendish, Alexander Kristoff, Danny Van Poppel, Giacomo Nizzolo, Dylan Groenewegen

** Caleb Ewan, Tom Boonen, Arnaud Demare, Moreno Hofland, Nacer Bouhanni, Elia Viviani, Sacha Modolo

* Andrea Guardini, Juan Jose Lobato, Sam Bennett, Wouter Wippert, Diego Ulissi, Gianni Moscon, Oscar Gatto, Daniel Oss, Sep Vanmarcke, Matteo Trentin, Sondre Holst Enger, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Heinrich Haussler