While the classics are about to come to an end, the cycling world prepares to turn its attention from the one-day races to the Grand Tours. The first of those, the Giro d'Italia, starts less than two weeks after the conclusion of Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and while the best one-day racers battle it out in Belgium, most of the major GC contenders for the Italian race will use this week's traditional warm-up race, Giro del Trentino, to finalize their preparations on a very mountainous course that offers the perfect gauge of who's on form for the big one in Italy.

 

The professional cycling season is divided into several phases that suit different kinds of riders. After the many preparation races in January and February, Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico gave the stage racers a chance to shine before a special type of classics riders took the spotlight in Milan-Sanremo and the cobbled classics. That part came to an end with Paris-Roubaix and now the lighter guys have taken over in the Ardennes classics before we head into the grand tour season.

 

While the Ardennes classics stars are in the most important part of their season, the Giro contenders are now finalizing their preparations for the next big change on the cycling calendar. For many years, most riders regarded the Tour de Romandie with its long history and hard climbs as the perfect preparation for the Giro d'Italia. The finish of the Swiss race just one week prior to the start of the big objective made it the perfect event to fine-tune the condition ahead of the major battles in the Italian mountains. Meanwhile, the mountainous Giro del Trentino held one week earlier was a mostly Italian affair in which the home country's heroes could gauge their form ahead of their big national event.

 

The regional tour in one of the most mountainous areas of Italy was first held in 1962 but after just two editions, the race disappeared. However, the idea of hosting a preparation event for the Italian grand tour was simply too obvious to resist and the race was back on the calendar in 1979 when Knut Knudsen took a very rare foreign win in Trentino.

 

Since then the race has always offered the first big dress rehearsal for the Giro between the local heroes, giving the Italian fans a chance to see which of their own riders was on form ahead of the three-week race. Francesco Moser and Giuseppe Saronni were both among the early winners and since then Claudio Chiappucci, Gianni Bugno, Paolo Savoldelli, Gilberto Simoni, Damiano Cunego, Vincenzo Nibali, Ivan Basso and Michele Scarponi have all won the event before going on to please the home public in the Giro. However, the race was one that mostly attracted Italian teams and riders while the international riders saved their legs for Romandie.

 

In recent years, this trend has changed. While the Swiss race is now mostly the final early-season objective for some of the Tour de France contenders or a perfect occasion for the classics riders to showcase their form one last time before a well-deserved rest, the Italian race has emerged as the preferred preparation not only for the Italian riders but also the biggest international stars.

 

The race has still mostly been won by Italians but Alexandre Vinokourov's victory in the 2010 edition proved that foreign Giro contenders can also be competitive. In 2012 the race saw a further internationalization of its line-up with Astana, Ag2r-La Mondiale and BMC all using the race as a key build-up for their Giro captains Roman Kreuziger, John Gadret and Marco Pinotti and in 2013 the race was a real dress rehearsal between the two pre-race favourites for the Giro, Bradley Wiggins and Vincenzo Nibali, with eventual Giro runner-up Cadel Evans giving the event even more international flavour. In 2014, Evans, Domenico Pozzovivo, Fabio Aru and Michele Scarponi were among the pre-race Giro favourites and they were all at the start line in Trentino. Last year three of the biggest favourites again planned to use the race as their final test as Richie Porte, Fabio Aru and Domenico Pozzovivo all planned to do the race (even though Aru ultimately had to skip the race due to illness).

 

This year the race continues its internationalization as Sky, Ag2r and Astana will make sure that three foreign WorldTour teams will be at the start and in total there will be teams from four different continents. However, BMC and Lampre-Merida who have often been at the start, have both decided to skip the race. However, as the two biggest favourites for the Corsa Rosa, Vincenzo Nibali and Mikel Landa, will both use the race to test their form for the Giro, it will again be the perfect dress rehearsal for the biggest Italian race. Domenico Pozzovio and Jean-Christophe Peraud who will spearhead a strong Ag2r team at the Giro will also be present in Trentino like the leaders of all the wild card teams for the grand tour.

 

It is no surprise to see the race emerge as the preferred preparation event for the Italian grand tour. Held in the Dolomites, it offers an important opportunity to test the legs in mountains similar to the ones found in May's big race and with limited kilometres of flat roads in the Trentino region, it is one of the most pronounced mountain races of the year. In fact, it is one of the few big stage races that a pure climber can win without having to be too concerned with TT skills. Furthermore, the race finishes more than two weeks before the start of the Italian grand tour, and nowadays riders seem to prefer more rest ahead of the start of a three-week race.

 

The race plays the same role for the Tour de France as the Criterium du Dauphine does for the Tour de France and the Vuelta a Burgos for the Vuelta a Espana. All three races are held in some of the mountainous parts of their countries and take place just a few weeks prior to their national grand tour. Hence, it is no surprise to see all three races gaining popularity as preparation races.

 

Last year the race was at risk of cancellation due to the economic crisis that has marred Italian cycling. However, the organizers managed to save the race by joining forces with the Trofeo Melinda one-day race that was also at risk of extinction. Those two races have now merged into one four-day event and for the second year in a row, stage 4 will incorporate a portion of the Trofeo Melinda course. In fact, it seems that he organizers have managed to turn things around and now the event seems to thrive. This year there will even be live TV coverage of the race for the first time since 2013 and the organizers have strengthened their partnership with several key backers. A new website is part of a much more international communications strategy and the organizers are even considering to permanently join forces with the Austrian Tirol region. There is no longer any risk of cancellation for an event that clearly flourishes

 

Last year the race was the final big test for Richie Porte, Domenico Pozzovivo and Fabio Aru but the latter fell ill on the eve of the race and had to skip the event. Instead, it was Porte who firmly positioned himself as Alberto Contador’s big challenger for the Giro by claiming a dominant win in the first of two consecutive summit finishes and defending the lead in the final two stages. Mikel Landa gave signs of what was to come in the Giro by riding to second place while Leopold König made it a fantastic race for Sky by finishing third. Having turned his full attention to the Tour, Porte won’t defend his title but Landa will both back as he finalizes the preparations for the Giro. König will be absent in what has been an injury-marred spring.

 

The course

The Giro del Trentino has always been a race for climbers and the four-day race is littered with mountain stages. Unless they want to tune in their climbing legs for the Giro, the sprinters have very little incentive to fight through four hard days of climbing as they rarely have any opportunity to shine. In the past, the race often included a flat stage for the fast finishers but since 2010 no stage has ended in a bunch sprint, with the sprinters missing out when they were given a chance three years ago. This year there won’t be any opportunities for the fast finishers either and like always this is a race of tough climbing.

 

In the past few years, the race has mostly been made up of three mountain stages and a timed event which often used to be an individual time trial but has changed to a team time trial recently. In 2012, the organizers put together a simply brutal course that consisted of an opening team event and then three consecutive mountain stages, with the penultimate stage including the brutally steep Punta Veleno climb. In 2013 they presented a more balanced course that offered a flatter stage, two summit finishes, a team time trial and a lumpy breakaway stage while they returned to a harder format for the 2014 race that had a team time trial and three big summit finishes.

 

Last year the race was back to an easier format as one of the big mountain stages was replaced by the final stage which included parts of the course for the Trofeo Melinda one-day race, an event suited to classics riders. This year the format will be similar even though the race seems to be slightly easier. Again there will be no individual time trial and the climbers will be able rely on their teams to limit their losses or even gain time on their rivals in the opening team time trial which has been changed compared to the one that usually started the race. Then it is into the mountains for two tough stages that will make sure that this race is likely to be won by the best climber but this year there will only be one summit finish which is even better suited to puncheurs than real climbers. This means that it may suit the punchier guys a bit better than it usually does and the time gaps may be a bit smaller than usual. There’s still a brutal mountain near the end of stage 3 where the climbers can make a real difference. Furthermore, there won’t be a third mountaintop finish in 2016 as the final stage will again be held on the same lumpy circuit that was used in 2015 and which could make Friday a day for a breakaway. However, a very tough climb has been added to the finale, meaning that things can change right until the end of the race.

                                                                                                          

Stage 1:

Starting in the Austrian city of Lienz with an opening day consisting of two half-stages, the 2013 edition was an exception from a general rule introduced in 2008. Since that year the race has always started with a pancake flat timed event near the Lake Garda and in 2014 and 2015 the race was back to that format.

 

This year the race will again start with a team time trial but unlike in the past two years, it won’t take place on the well-known course in Arco. Instead, the organizers will use a route that is almost identical to the one that was used for the time trial in 2010. It’s 12.1km long and will bring the riders from Riva del Garda to Torbole but it will be pretty similar to the traditional opener. It is a mainly flat affair with a few technical corners and the distance makes it comparable with the stage has kicked things off recently.

 

After a short flat section along the shores of Lake Garda, the riders will leave the lake which means that the roads are slightly uphill until they reach the northernmost point of the course after 7.7km of racing, with a few turns along the way. From there, they will turn around and head back along an almost completely straight road that is slightly descending and leads back to the shores of the lake. There’s a final turn 700m from the line and then the road is slightly downhill at 1% for the final part of the stage.

 

The course may be new and not completely flat as it was the case for the previous one, but it will still be very similar to what we have seen in the past. There are a few turns but there will be plenty of room for the big specialists to make a difference. This is a course for the powerful teams that really specialize in the discipline but in a race for climbers, there aren’t many powerhouses at the start. In general, time gaps in a short team time trial and very small and the seconds won or lost are unlikely to be very important after three days of tough racing in the mountains.

 

The team time trial almost has the same length as it has had for the past four years. In 2012, BMC beat Astana by 10 seconds to put Taylor Phinney into the overall lead while Team Sky were 13 seconds faster than Astana on the flat course in Lienz in 2013. In 2014 BMC were back up on top as they put Daniel Oss in the leader’s jersey while Bora-Argon 18 created a major surprise in 2015 when they managed to beat pre-race favourites Sky and give local rider Cesare Benedetti time in the spotlight as he took the first leader’s jersey. When an almost identical course was used for the opening time trial in 2010, Alexandre Vinokourov took the win by putting 16 seconds into Stefano Garzelli.

 

 

 

Stage 2:

After an opening stage for the time triallists, the Giro del Trentino turns its focus to what the race is all about: tough climbing. However, there will be no big mountains in the first road stage of the race and even though it offers the only summit finish of the race, it is a stage more suited to punchy riders than real climbers.

 

At 220.3km, it is a very long stage that will see the race return to Austria for the first time since 2013 where a new summit finish in Anras awaits the riders. The start will be taken from Arco on the shores of Lake Garda and from there the riders will head in a northeasterly direction. He first 26.5km are slightly uphill and then a short descent leads to a flat section.

 

The riders will pass Bolzano where the intermediate sprint comes at the 89.8km mark and from here the rod starts to rise slightly. The ascending section culminates at the 138.7km mark at the top of a category 2 climb (4km, 4.7%) which is pretty irregular and has some very steep double-digit sections. Then it’s back onto flat roads for a short while as the riders head in an easterly direction. The roads will again start to rise slightly until the 191.2km mark from where it will be slightly descending. After 205.1km of racing, the riders will cross the border to reach Austrian soil.

 

The descending roads will come to an abrupt end at the bottom of the final climb. It’s a short ramp of 3.63km at an average gradient of 6.9% but don’t be fooled by the numbers. The gradient reaches double-digit numbers of 10-15% for most of the first two kilometres. The third kilometre is almost flat and even ends with a small descent. Then things get very tough in the finale as the final 500m are uphill at 11-13%. There are a few turns on the lower slopes of the climb but then it is a slightly winding road all the way to the 500m mark where two turns in quick succession lead to the 300m finishing straight.

 

The riders may head into the mountains but there are no big mountains on the menu. Instead, it is a long day of steady climbing that will all come down to a very explosive finale. The final climb has some very steep sections but it is a short ramp that is more for Ardennes specialists than the climbers who usually excel in Trentino. With an almost completely flat kilometre close to the top of the climb, there is a chance that it will all come down to an uphill sprint in the final 500m. Such a steep ramp will always make some differences but this is a stage that will only create minor time gaps.

 

Anras has never hosted a stage before.

 

 

 

 

 

Stage 3:

This year there will only be one stage with big mountains and so the climbers have to make the most of stage 3 which is where they have to win the race. Two big climbs will be on the menu and even though there is no summit finish, the fact that there is only a fast descent after the final climb means that there will be little time for a regrouping to take place.

 

For the second day in a row, the riders will have to cover more than 200km as they travel 204.6km from the Austrian city Sillian to Mezzolombardo in Italy. The official start will be given when they cross the border and then they will travel back along the roads that they used for stage 2 which means that they will head in a westerly direction along slightly descending roads. After around 60km of racing, they will turn to the southwest, passing through Bressanone and the intermediate sprint at the 70.1km. The downhill roads will continue until they have passed the city of Bolzano and then the climbing hostilities will begin.

 

Instead of continuing straight towards the finish, they will deviate from the direct route to go up the category 1 Nova Ponente (19.4km, 5.8%). It has a pretty easy first part where the gradient is mostly 3-6% but it get much steeper in the final 6km, with the 16th kilometre even averaging 10.7%. The top comes at the 124km mark and then the riders will stay on the plateau for around 10km before they reach the descent which ends with 53.5km to go.

 

The riders will now continue along flat roads in a southwesterly direction until they reach the finishing city of Mezzolombardo. Instead of ending the race here, they will do one lap of a 25.6km circuit that is simply brutal. It consists of the category 1 climb of Fai della Paganella (11.6km, 7.0%) followed by a descent back to the finish. The climb is very regular at 7-9% for the first 10km until it levels out at 3.6% for the final 1.6km. The top is located 14km from the finish and the final part of the stage is almost all downhill. The descent is not very technical though. There are a few hairpin turns with 5km to go but the final 4km follow a road that is only very slightly winding. The descent ends with 2.5km to go and then there is a flat kilometre that leads to the final 1500m which are downhill at a gradient of 2%.

 

This is the big day for the climbers. Fai della Paganella is a tough climb where the best riders can make a difference and as there is virtually no flat roads after the top, it is almost like a summit finish where the differences can be maintained all the way to the line. The final descent is not very difficult so it will be hard for the best descenders to make a big difference here so it should be a stage that is determined by the climbing legs. After a big battle between the favourites, this stage will show who’s going to win the 2016 Giro del Trentino.

 

Mezzolombardo has not hosted a finish of a major bike race for more than a decade.

 

 

 

 

 

Stage 4:

Apart from the time trials along the shores of Lake Garda, there are never completely flat stages in the Giro del Trentino which is a race made for pure climbers. Of course the final stage of this year’s race also ventures into the high mountains but this time the final big climb comes far from the finish and instead the race finishes on a difficult circuit that is more made for puncheurs. This could open the door for a different kind of riders than those who usually excel on the long climbs in Trentino as it happened when a very similar stage was used in 2015. However, there are a few changes compared to last year’s stage and the stage seems to be tougher than it was 12 months ago. With a much steeper climb pretty close to the finish, it may even change the GC on the final day. The stage has been created as part of the merger with the Trofeo Melinda race and the race will again include many of the climbs from the Italian classic and finish on the circuit that was used at last year’s race too.

 

Again it will travel between the cities of Malé and Cles and the distance of 161.1km is almost unchanged. After doing a flat loop around the starting city, the riders will head up an uncategorized climb and a descent to the hilly terrain north of Cles where they will tackle three circuits that each has a big climb. Along the way, they will pass the site of the intermediate sprint at the 58.6km mark.

 

The first circuit includes the category 2 climb of Fondo (3.4km, 5.9%) at the 73.1km mark while the challenge on the second circuit is the category 2 climb of Marca di Rurno (7km, 3.6%). The summit of that climb comes with 59.7km to go and the descent leads to the final circuit which is the hardest. Its main challenge is the very steep category 1 climb of Forcella di Brez (6km, 9.6%) which is a brutal ascent whose gradient barely drops below the 10% mark in the final 3km.

 

The top comes with just 34.8km to go and the descent leads straight to the Trofeo Melinda circuit which the riders will hit with 14km to go. It’s a rolling affair without many flat roads but it doesn’t include any real climbs. There’s a 2km rising section with an average gradient of 3.1% and 700m of around 11% that ends with 3km to go. From there, the road is slightly descending until the riders get to the final 500m which are flat. There are no real technical challenges and there is just one real turn in the final 5km, with the corner coming 3.5km from the line.

 

Compared to last year’s stage which was won by a breakaway, the stage has been made a lot harder. The Fondo climb only features one and the Passo Pedaia has been replaced by Marca di Rurno and most notably the brutal Forcella di Brez. That’s a much harder climb and unlike last year, the final ascent even comes much closer to the finish as the riders will only do one lap of the circuit instead of the two they did 12 months ago.

 

Forcella di Brez is clearly the hardest climb of the race and can do a huge amount of damage. As there are only 14km relatively flat kilometres after the descent, it’s not impossible for a lone rider to stay away until the finish and so the stage could have an impact on the GC. However, it’s more likely that a regrouping will take place and that a select group of climbers will arrive at the finish together. With a downhill finish, there’s a solid chance that a breakaway will decide the stage.

 

That’s what happened 12 months ago when Paolo Tiralongo, Fabio Duarte and David Arroyo escaped after a brutally fast and aggressive start to the stage. It came down to a 3-rider sprint that was won by Tiralongo who won his second stage in just three years. Cles also hosted a stage of the Giro del Trentino in 2006 when Damiano Cunego beat arch-rival Gilberto Simoni in a sprint from a small group to take the leader’s jersey on the second day of the race. He would go on to win the race overall.

 

The Fondo climb was used at the finish of the 2014 and 2013 Italian Championships that were won by Vincenzo Nibali and Ivan Santaromita respectively. The last five winners of the Trofeo Melinda were Carlos Betancur in 2012, Davide Rebellin in 2011, Nibali in 2010, Giovanni Visconti in 2009 and Leonardo Bertagnolli in 2008.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

It's risky business to send the riders into the high mountains at this time of the year and so the weather plays a huge role in a race like the Giro del Trentino as mountain stages may be altered or cancelled in case of bad weather. At the same time, the riders clearly prefer to have nice conditions for a preparation event as illness at this time of the year would be disastrous.

 

Luckily it seems that the rider swill have great conditions for the race. Tuesday and Wednesday are forecasted to be sunny spring days with temperatures of 20 degrees. There will be more clouds on Thursday while there may be rain on the menu for the final stage. There will be little wind during the four days.

 

The favourites

Like most other preparation races, the Giro del Trentino is always a strange affair that can be a bit difficult to predict. Some riders are usually very strong in their build-up events while others take it a bit easier before coming out with all guns blazing at their biggest races. Even though everybody is looking for positive signs and would love to achieve a notable result, the Giro contenders head into the race with very different expectations.

 

Things become even more complicated by the fact that many arrive at the race straight from a high-altitude training camp. The riders may not have fully recovered from their hard training and even though they are far off the pace, it is not always a pure reflection of their form. A poor showing in Trentino cannot be used to rule out a strong performance in the Giro.

 

Compared to the other big grand tour preparation event, Criterium du Dauphiné, Tour de Suisse and Vuelta a Burgos, the Giro del Trentino is a bit different in the sense that almost all contenders are using it as build-up for the Giro. The Tour and Vuelta build-up races can be targets for riders that come out of a grand tour with a solid level of form but in Trentino it would be a big surprise if the winner will not be at the start line in Apeldoorn in a few weeks time. Furthermore, it has been become increasingly popular for non-Giro riders to do the Trentino-Liege double and for the second year in a row Romain Bardet is among the riders who will use the Italian race to get ready for the Belgian classic which is his big goal in the early part of the season.

 

In 2013, the race had a fantastic start list that included both the big favourites for the Giro while the race was not been attract the biggest favourite for the grand tour in 2014 and 2015. Nairo Quintana and Alberto Contador both decided to skip the race but most of the riders just below the top name were at the start in Trentino. On both occasions, the race was won by a rider that would go on to play a key role in the Giro.

 

This year Vincenzo Nibali, Mikel Landa and Alejandro Valverde have received most attention as Giro d’Italia favourites and the organizers are extremely pleased to welcome Nibali and Landa in Trentino, billing the race as the big dress rehearsal for the grand tour. Being the most talented classics rider of his generation, Valverde has of course opted for a different approach as he is currently travelling for an overall win at the Vuelta a Castilla y Leon to the two Belgian Ardennes races. There will be no Rigoberto Uran, Esteban Chaves, Ilnur Zakarin or Rafal Majka either but with two of the three top names, the race deserves its status as the key test of form for the Giro contenders.

 

The Giro del Trentino has always been all about climbing and that will again be the case in 2016. All three road stages have the potential to create time gaps between the best riders and the race is very likely to be won by the best climber. Stage 2 is more for the punchy riders than the real climbers and the gaps will be relatively small but the final two stages are really for the mountain goats. With both stages having late downhills, descending skills can always come into play and with their flat finishes, sprinting and bonus seconds could also be factors.

 

As stage 3 has no flat section in the end, it is almost like a mountaintop finish and we can expect some solid gaps. It is harder to gauge what impact stage four will have. The final climb is definitely the hardest of the race but with a flat finish, we could have a regrouping and a bit more conservative racing. On the other hand, it is the final chance to change the GC so even though the overall leader may prefer to ride conservative, there will definitely be a battle between the climbers. The time gaps in the team time trial will be minor and in such a tough race, they are unlikely to determine the outcome of the race.

 

When he last targeted the Giro in 2013, Vincenzo Nibali won the Giro del Trentino after a memorable race where everybody was looking forward to the big Nibali-Wiggins dress rehearsal. A mechanical on the hardest climb took Wiggins out of contention but Nibali set himself up for his later win in the grand tour by riding to a comfortable victory. In general, he has always enjoyed success in Trentino in the build-up to his grand tour wins as he won Trofeo Melinda a few weeks before his 2010 Vuelta victory and he conquered the Italian one-day race in 2014 when it counted as the Italian Championships, before going on to win the Tour.

 

This year Nibali will again head to Trentino to finalize his form for the Giro and it is hard not to regard him as the big favourite. However, Nibali has a bit of a strange history when it comes to preparation races. IUp until 2013, he was usually flying going into the grand tours but in 2014 and 2015 he was off the pace in the Dauphiné which was his key test for the Tour. He may have won the Italian Championships on both occasions but in the big stage race test he was below his usual level.

 

However, everything seems to be different in 2016. In 2014 and 2015, he was in a constant search of form and his spring seasons were disastrous. He had big plans to do well in the early part of the year but a number of circumstances meant that he only reached his peak in the summer. His relatively poor showing in last year’s Tour seems to have changed things and he was on track for a great Vuelta until he was thrown out of the race after just two days of racing. He went on to win Il Lombardia during a golden run of form late in the season.

 

This year he has been flying since he won the Tour of Oman in commanding fashion. He was one of the big favourites for Tirreno-Adriatico but due to the cancellation of the queen stage, we never got the chance to see what he could do. Since then, he has been training at altitude and he only returned last Friday. He has had a few days to rest and recover and now goes into the Giro del Trentino with ambitions.

 

Based on the first part of the season, we expect it to be the 2013 version of Nibali that will arrive in Trentino. If that’s the case, he will be very hard to beat in a race that suits him well. On paper, only Mikel Landa can match him on the climbs but the Basque has had a complicated build-up. With the Basque still chasing his form, Nibali could go on to dominate stage 3 where he will also benefit from his climbing skills. Then he can take a conservative approach into stage 4 where the very steep climb suits him pretty well.

 

Stage 2 is a bit too explosive for Nibali but he has always done well on shorter climbs too and it won’t be impossible for him to win here too. Furthermore, Astana have one of the best teams for the opening team time trial which they could very well win. As he will have Jakob Fuglsang and Tanel Kangert at his side in the crucial moments of the mountain stages, Nibali has all the skills to dominate this race and he is clearly the favourite to win.

 

It is hard to find out what to expect from Mikel Landa. The Basque has had a very complicated build-up as he was ill and missed most of the spring season. He only returned to competition at Coppi e Bartali in late March where he was at a reasonable level and then went on to take a hugely surprising stage win in the first summit finish at the Vuelta al Pais Vasco. Of course that win was mainly due to the tactical battle between the favourites and he would later lose ground in the hard stages but at least he proved that he is now at a competitive level.

 

It is hard not to get a feeling of déjà vu. Last year Landa was also ill in the spring and only made his season debut in Catalonia. Back then, he also won a stage in Pais Vasco even though his form didn’t allow him to go for GC but when he arrived in Trentino, he was on fire. Due to Aru’s late withdrawal, he took over the leadership at Astana and he finished the race in second behind Richie Porte. That was the start of his golden period that saw him emerge as the best climber at the Giro d’Italia.

 

Of course there is no guarantee that it will be a repeat of 2015 but at least we can expect Landa to be much stronger than he was in Pais Vasco. With no individual time trial, the course suits him well. He has more punch than Nibali for stage 2 but the downhill finishes in the two big mountain stages are less favourable for him. Nibali is one of the best descenders and is stronger on the flats so he will have time to get back if he loses ground on the climbs. Furthermore, it is hard to gauge Sky’s chances in the team time trial. They have a great line up of climbers but Astana is likely to have the upper hand in the opening test. Landa is still the rider with the biggest chance to beat Nibali but he would have preferred a big mountaintop finish to make a bigger difference.

 

Domenico Pozzovivo hasa great track record in the race but it is with some reluctance that we have him as a four-star favourite for this year’s race. One year ago, the Italian was one of the most underrated riders in the peloton. In fact he finished in the top 10 in every race he finished in 2014 and 2015 until he was a surprisingly poor 11th in the Vuelta – if you forget about the races he did at the end of the 2014 when he had just broken his legs. That showed an impressive reliability in both stage and one-day races. Furthermore, Giro del Trentino has always been a happy hunting ground for him as he won the race overall when it included the brutal Punta Veleno climb in 2012 and has won stages in 2010, 2012 and 2015.

 

However, Pozzovivo has not been at his usual level since his dramatic crash at the 2015 Giro. Things looked good when he returned to competition at the Tour de Suisse but since then he has been far from his best. Nothing has worked out for him in 2016 and even though he initially looked strong in Oman, he has come up short in all his key races.

 

Pozzovivo is going into the Giro d’Italia which is the big test of his ability to return to his former level and this race will give the first indications. On paper, Romain Bardet is the in-form Ag2r rider but he is using the race more as preparation for the Giro and won’t go too deep. Instead, Pozzovivo will again be the leader and of course the mountainous course suits him well. Ag2r are no TTT specialists but in such a short test, they won’t lose too much time. He can do pretty well on the steep wall in stage 2 and he will find the very steep climb in stage 4 to his liking. The downhill finishes will make it harder for him to win but the real question when it comes to Pozzovivo is whether he will be able to return to his best.

 

On paper, Romain Bardet may be Nibali’s biggest rival but we doubt that he will go all out for victory. Liege-Bastogne-Liege is his biggest goal in the spring and he has been training at altitude to get ready. Last year he made the unusual choice to use Trentino as the final preparation and as it worked well, he will do so again in 2016. However, it is more of a build-up race than an important goal for him.

 

Bardet has had a solid year. He almost beat Nibali in Oman and did reasonably well in Catalonia. The Paris-Nice course didn’t suit him but he still managed to finish in the top 10. In general, it seems that he has taken another step. With his great climbing skills and excellent descending, the course is tailor-made for him but we doubt that he will be riding for victory. He won’t go all out four days in a row so close to Liege so he is more of an outsider than a real favourite.

 

The third Ag2r card is veteran Jean-Christophe Peraud. In his final year as a professional, he is getting ready for a belated Giro d’Italia debut and Trentino is an important test of form. He progressed gradually for several years until it all culminated with his second place in the 2014 Tour but since then a number of health issues have slowed him down. He never reached his best level in 2015 but this year he has not had any health problems and seems to be in a better place.

 

However, Peraud is an old man and at his age, it’s always questionable whether it’s possible to get back to the former level. Until now, nothing suggests that he will be able to do so. He rode aggressively at Criterium International but he failed to make it three in a row in the French race and so he actually did worse than he did 12 months ago. He is likely to be a lot stronger now but there are still several doubts regarding his top level. At his best, he is a solid climber and a good descender but he misses an individual time trial to really be a favourite for this race, especially as Ag2r are not team time trial specialists.

 

Many were questioning whether Gazprom-Rusvelo would be competitive at the Giro d’Italia but there is no longer any doubt that they will have at least one strong card to play. Sergey Firsanov has been flying since March when he rode to a dominant solo win in the hardest stage at Coppi e Bartali and went on to take the overall win. On Sunday, he won the Giro dell’Appennino after a memorable solo ride which earned lots of praise from his rivals as he was riding into a strong headwind.

 

Firsanov seems to be in the form of his life and he likes this kind of hilly course. As Gazprom-Rusvelo are usually among the very best in the team time trials – they won the TTT at Coppi e Bartali – he should also benefit from the opening stage. However, for this mountainous race, they haven’t brought their big engines so they are unlikely to win on the first day. Firsanov will have to make the difference on the climbs but based on his current form he may be strong enough to do so.

 

Caja Rural go into the race with Hugh Carthy as their leader. It has always been obvious that the Brit is a great climbing talent but many were still surprised that he finished in the top 10 in Catalonia which had gathered the strongest field for any one-week stage race this year. Since then he has continued his solid showing with a top 10 in GP Miguel Indurain and Sunday’s Giro dell’Appennino, proving that the form is still good. This race is a big goal for him and with no individual time trial, the course suits him well. Of course Caja Rural will lose time in the team time trial but on the climbs, Carthy should be one of the best.

 

Astana have more cards to play. Jakob Fuglsang will be Nibali’s lieutenant in the Giro and in Trentino and he will be ready to take over if the captain fails. He goes into the race in a support role but he has often been riding to top 10 results while working as a domestique. The Dane is a solid climber and has been riding well all year, most notably in Oman where he finished third behind his team leader. He showed good form by making a solid Tour of Flanders debut and since then he has been training at altitude with Nibali. There is little doubt that the consistent Dane will be up there but of course his overall chances depend on Nibali.

 

Drapac go into the race with the hugely talented Brendan Canty. The Australian has long been regarded as a solid climbing talent but his performances at the Abu Dhabi Tour and especially at the Tour of Oman have proved that he can now challenge the best on the climbs. This mountainous course suits him really well but his form is a bit uncertain. He has done a few one-day races in Europe but as they didn’t really suit him, it is hard to know whether he has hit his best form for a race that must be a big goal for him.

 

Astana have a third card to play with Tanel Kangert. The Estonian almost finished in the top 10 while working for Nibali at the 2013 Giro and Vuelta and last year he was again 13th in the Giro. The loyal Estonian is brutally strong and will be a key rider in both the team time trial and the mountains. However, as he is a bit down in the Astana hierarchy, only bad luck for his captains will allow him to take his own chance.

 

Sky have a solid team to support Landa but they haven’t lined up any of their other stage race stars. However, the door could be open for some of the domestiques to take their chance if Landa is not at 100%. One option is the hugely talented Gianni Moscon who has had a remarkable pro debut. The Italian can do almost everything: he finished third in the hilly Coppi e Bartali and played a key role for Ian Stannard and Luke Rowe on the cobbles at Paris-Roubaix. He is riding on home soil here and his unlimited potential could see him deliver another top result if he gets the freedom to ride for himself.

 

In Coppi e Bartali, the hugely talented Egan Bernal stayed with Firsanov until he crashed on the final descent in the queen stage. Androni manager GianniSavio has always claimed that the 19-year-old is a huge climbing talent and he has already proved his boss right. If Bernal has the legs he had in Coppi e Bartali, there is no reason that he can’t do well here but as his performance in Appennino was not great, his condition is uncertain.

 

Another exciting neo-professional is Giulio Ciccone. We have been impressed by him right from the beginning of the year and most recently he has played a key role for Colbrelli in the hilly classics. Impressively, he almost finished with the best in his Amstel Gold Race debut after working hard for his leader and he seems to be riding even better than he did at the start of the year. This mountainous race suits him down to the ground.

 

Bora-Argon 18 are here with all their stage race specialists but Emanuel Buchmann and Dominik Nerz are probably their best cards. For some reason, their many climbers are very inconsistent so you never know what you will get but at least Buchmann showed great form in the breakaway at Brabantse Pijl. He nearly won a mountain stage in his debut Tour and he will found the mountainous course to his liking.

 

Nerz was signed as the stage race leader for Bora-Argon 18 but health issues marred his 2015 season. His top 10 at Criterium International proves that he is back on track and there is little doubt that he has the potential to do well in a race like this.

 

Bardiani have a second card to play with Stefano Pirazzi. He is very inconsistent but he seems to have hit his best form since 2013. He won the very hard final stage in Coppi e Bartali and when he is at 100%, he is a very good climber. In fact, he finished 7th in this race in 2013 when he was up there with the very best on the climbs. He didn’t do well in Appennino so his form is a bit uncertain but you never know what you will get from Pirazzi.

 

Sergio Pardilla is back on track after his horror crash at last year’s Vuelta al Pais Vasco. He was able to follow the impressive Movistar riders at Klasika Primavera where he finished third but he had a harder time in Appennino where he lost a bit of ground on the final climb. However, the longer climbs in Trentino should suit him better and as he is still building form, we can expect him to be getting better and better.

 

Finally, we are curious to see what Pierpaolo Ficara can do. The 25-year-old Italian had never done a pro race before the season but he has proved that he has a lot of potential. He was up there in the hard stages in Coppi e Bartali and yesterday he finished an impressive fourth in Appennino after a very aggressive ride where he was on the attack almost all day. He doesn’t have much experience but his potential seems to be huge.

 

***** Vincenzo Nibali

**** Mikel Landa, Domenico Pozzovivo

*** Romain Bardet, Sergey Firsanov, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Hugh Carthy, Jakob Fuglsang

** Brendan Canty, Tanel Kangert, Gianni Moscon, Egan Bernal, Giulio Ciccone, Emanuel Buchmann, Dominik Nerz, Stefano Pirazzi, Sergio Pardilla

* Pierpaolo Ficara, Ivan Santaromita, Edgar Pinto, Patrick Konrad, Rodolfo Torres, Mauro Finetto, Damiano Cunego, Francisco Mancebo, Ian Boswell, David Lopez, Manuel Bongiorno, Clemens Fankhause, Kleber Ramos