For the third year in a row, the Giro del Trentino will kick off with a short, flat team time trial and as the rest of the week is all about climbing, it will be the only chance for the powerful riders to show themselves. The short test is unlikely to create major time gaps but it will be important to get the race off to a solid start and boost the confidence ahead of the first big test in the mountains.

The course

Starting in the Austrian city of Lienz with an opening day consisting of two half-stages, the 2013 edition was an exception from a general rule introduced in 2008. Since that year the race has always started with a pancake flat timed event near the Lake Garda and in 2014 and 2015 the race was back to that format.

This year the race will again start with a team time trial but unlike in the past two years, it won’t take place on the well-known course in Arco. Instead, the organizers will use a route that is almost identical to the one that was used for the time trial in 2010. It’s 12.1km long and will bring the riders from Riva del Garda to Torbole but it will be pretty similar to the traditional opener. It is a mainly flat affair with a few technical corners and the distance makes it comparable with the stage that has kicked things off recently.

After a short flat section along the shores of Lake Garda, the riders will leave the lake which means that the roads are slightly uphill until they reach the northernmost point of the course after 7.7km of racing, with a few turns along the way. From there, they will turn around and head back along an almost completely straight road that is slightly descending and leads back to the shores of the lake. There’s a final turn 700m from the line and then the road is slightly downhill at 1% for the final part of the stage.

The team time trial almost has the same length as it has had for the past four years. In 2012, BMC beat Astana by 10 seconds to put Taylor Phinney into the overall lead while Team Sky were 13 seconds faster than Astana on the flat course in Lienz in 2013. In 2014 BMC were back up on top as they put Daniel Oss in the leader’s jersey while Bora-Argon 18 created a major surprise in 2015 when they managed to beat pre-race favourites Sky and give local rider Cesare Benedetti time in the spotlight as he took the first leader’s jersey. When an almost identical course was used for the opening time trial in 2010, Alexandre Vinokourov took the win by putting 16 seconds into Stefano Garzelli.

The weather

The weather has not always been great for the Giro del Trentino but this year things will get off to a sunny start. Tuesday will be sunny with a maximum temperature of 20 degrees and a light wind from a westerly direction. This means that the riders will mainly have a crosswind, with a tailwind section at the start and at the finish.

The favourites

The opening team time trial has rarely played much of a role in the Giro del Trentino. The race is very mountainous and as time gaps are always very small in short team time trials, the time differences can easily be erased later in the week. As there is no team time trial in this year’s Giro d’Italia, it will be even less important and the main purpose will be to get the race off to a good start and boost the morale.

The course may be new and not completely flat as it was the case for the previous one, but it will still be very similar to what we have seen in the past. There are a few turns but there will be plenty of room for the big specialists to make a difference. This is a course for the powerful teams that really specialize in the discipline.

However, this is a race for climbers and there aren’t many powerhouses at the start. It doesn’t really make sense for the big engines to travel to Trentino and this makes the team time trial more unpredictable and open than it is usually the case for a discipline in which only a few select teams are real specialists. That means that it is possible to create surprises here as it was the case 12 months ago when Bora-Argon 18 shocked the world by beating Sky.

This year Astana seems to have the strongest team for this stage. Tanel Kangert is a real time trial specialist and even though he usually needs longer and harder courses, he will be a big engine for the team. Vincenzo Nibali is always strong in team time trials and even though he is definitely not the time triallist he once was, Jakob Fuglsang is still a strong rider. The rest of the team is mainly made up of climbers but three strong riders are enough in a race without any specialists. Astana always do better in team time trials that their line-up suggests and a very similar line-up did surprisingly well in the team time trial at the Tour de San Luis. We expect Astana to get the race off to a great start by taking the win.

Last year Bora-Argon 18 won this stage and they go into the race with an almost identical line-up. Only Cristiano Salerno has been replaced by Gregor Mühlberger and as none of them are specialists, that won’t make much of a difference. In fact their young riders Patrick Konrad and Emanuel Buchmann are now one year stronger and can be expected to do better. As Dominik Nerz and Paul Voss are riding much better than they did 12 months ago, it could be another win for the German team.

Sky is one of the teams that really specialize in the discipline but they don’t have their specialists here. In fact, they go into the race with a team mostly made up of climbers. Christian Knees is a powerful engine and David Lopez and Philip Deignan have occasionally done good TTs as has Gianni Moscon but the rest of the team won’t find this discipline to their liking. On the other hand, Sky are definitely among the strongest teams here and in a race where there aren’t many specialists for this discipline, it won’t be impossible for them to win.

Ag2r is the third WorldTour team but they are definitely not TTT specialists. They have never been close to the best in the TTTs and last year they could only manage fourth. Back then, they even had a much better team for this discipline as they had TT specialists Patrick Gretsch and Hugo Houle on the roster. Jean-Christophe Peraud will be the main powerhouse but that is unlikely to be enough for them to win. Still they have such a formidable group of riders that they should be in the top 5 and it won’t be impossible to be on the podium in this field.

Drapac don’t have much team time trial experience but they may deliver a surprise here. Jens Mouris and Peter Koning are real specialists for a flat course like this and Travis Meyer, Lachlan Norris and Gavin Mannion are good time triallists too. They are likely to get Brendan Canty’s GC campaign off to a great start.

Gazprom-Rusvelo won the TTT at Coppi e Bartali and with their many track riders, they are always among the best in the TTTs. However, they don’t have many engines in this race, in fact Alexander Serov is the only real specialist in the team. On the other, they have a lot of experience and that will serve them well.

Caja Rural have never done well in TTTs but in this race they have one of the strongest teams. They don’t have any specialists but they have a lot of in-form riders which will bring them far in a race with very few specialists.

Finally, we will point to Skydive Dubai as a joker. They won the TTT at last year’s Jelajah Malaysia and have a pretty strong team for this race. Francisco Mancebo is a strong rider, Marlen Zmorka is a real specialist and Andrea Palini has the speed to do really well on a flat course like this one.

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Astana

Other winner candidates: Bora-Argon 18, Sky

Outsiders: Ag2r, Drapac, Gazprom-Rusvelo

Jokers: Caja Rural, Skydive Dubai