Astana and Vincenzo Nibali lived up to their status by winning the team time trial and even gained more than expected in the battle against the clock. However, the small gaps are unlikely to play much of a role at the end of three days of tough climbing which will kick off with a finale on short, steep wall in Austria where the punchy climbers are expected to shine.

 

The course

After an opening stage for the time triallists, the Giro del Trentino turns its focus to what the race is all about: tough climbing. However, there will be no big mountains in the first road stage of the race and even though it offers the only summit finish of the race, it is a stage more suited to punchy riders than real climbers.

 

At 220.3km, it is a very long stage that will see the race return to Austria for the first time since 2013, with a new summit finish in Anras awaiting the riders. The start will be taken from Arco on the shores of Lake Garda and from there the riders will head in a northeasterly direction. The first 26.5km are slightly uphill and then a short descent leads to a flat section.

 

The riders will pass Bolzano where the intermediate sprint comes at the 89.8km mark and from here the road starts to rise slightly. The ascending section culminates at the 138.7km mark at the top of a category 2 climb (4km, 4.7%) which is pretty irregular and has some very steep double-digit sections. Then it’s back onto flat roads for a short while as the riders head in an easterly direction. The roads will again start to rise slightly until the 191.2km mark from where it will be slightly descending. After 205.1km of racing, the riders will cross the border to reach Austrian soil.

 

The descending roads will come to an abrupt end at the bottom of the final climb. It’s a short ramp of 3.63km at an average gradient of 6.9% but don’t be fooled by the numbers. The gradient reaches double-digit numbers of 10-15% for most of the first two kilometres. The third kilometre is almost flat and even ends with a small descent. Then things get very tough in the finale as the final 500m are uphill at 11-13%. There are a few turns on the lower slopes of the climb but then it is a slightly winding road all the way to the 500m mark where two turns in quick succession lead to the 300m finishing straight.

 

Anras has never hosted a stage before.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Anras is likely to be hot by snow in the weekend but that won’t be a concern for the riders. Wednesday is forecasted to be sunny with a maximum temperature of 12 degrees. There will be a light wind from a northerly direction which means that it will be a long day with a cross-headwind. After the first climb, it will be a crosswind for the rest of the stage until the riders get to the final climb where there will be a cross-headwind or a headwind until the riders turn into a crosswind with 300m to go.

 

The favourites

It was always going to be difficult to beat Astana in the opening team time trial but the Kazakh team gained more time than expected. To go more than one second faster per kilometre than their closest rivals was pretty impressive and proves that the Kazakhs and Vincenzo Nibali will be the ones to beat this week.

 

With a team made up of climbers, Sky did reasonably well by taking second but it was a surprise to see Mikel Landa sit on for most of the time. The Basque has reportedly worked a lot on his time trialling and claims to be close to his peak condition and so one could have expected him to leave a better impression even on a stage that didn’t suit him.

 

Ag2r can be pleased with their performance as they did a better team time trial than usual and especially Romain Bardet looked very motivated. He is still unlikely to go all out for GC here as he is mainly in Trentino to prepare for Liege and Romandie but he will definitely test himself in a few stages. As opposed to this, Bora-Argon 18 did worse than expected.

 

However, the big losers were Hugh Carthy and Brendan Canty. Caja Rural did a disastrous team time trial and the talented Brit not finds himself almost a minute behind Nibali. Canty was even more unfortunate as he crashed with two of his teammates and surprisingly his teammates didn’t wait for their talented leader. Furthermore, it was a shame to see the exciting Pierpaolo Ficarra lose so much time as his small Amore e Vita were unable to bring time trial bikes to the race.

 

Today’s stage didn’t show anything about the climbing form of the favourites. Tomorrow’s stage will give the first small hints but the final climb is very special and can’t be used too much as a gauge of how the riders will do on the longer climbs. In fact, the final climb is a bit like Mur de Huy and so we will have a mini Fleche Wallonne as a warm-up for the real event later in the afternoon.

 

It’s a very long stage with a headwind which means that it will probably be a long waiting game until we get to the exciting conclusion. A break will go up the road and then it will be up to Astana to control things. They will gladly do so with Davide Malacarne and Bakhtiyar Kozhatayev and they will make sure that the break has no chance. In the end, it will come down to an uphill sprint on the final.

 

For such a short climb, positioning is crucial and so it will be a big sprint to the bottom. That favours the riders from the bigger teams as they will have better support and some of the good climbers from the small team will already have to spend some energy on the lower slopes to get back into position. That kind of effort can be costly on such a short climb.

 

As said, the finish is a bit like Fleche Wallonne and so it suits the punchy guys much more than the real climbers. However, there aren’t many specialists in this kind of finish as they are all in Belgium for the Belgian classic. This makes it a pretty open affair with no obvious favourite.

 

Due to the easy first third kilometre, it’s a very special climb. As there will be a cross-headwind, it will be hard to attack already in the steep first part, mainly because Astana and Sky have very strong teams that will set a brutal pace right from the bottom. That will create a huge selection but it will probably come down to an uphill sprint in the final 500m.

 

As said, there aren’t any real specialists for this kind of sprint but among the favourites, Romain Bardet is probably the punchiest. The Frenchman is here to prepare for Liege and Romandie so like last year he is unlikely to go all in for GC. However, he will probably use the first two road stages to test his form and tomorrow’s uphill sprint will be a good gauge of his skills for the climbs in the Ardennes. Bardet has had a great season so far and nearly beat Nibali in Oman before he went on to do a solid Paris-Nice on a course that didn’t suit him. In Catalonia, he proved his uphill sprinting skills by taking third on La Molina which is an explosive climb even though it is not as steep as this one. He has been preparing for his big goals at altitude and looked skinny and strong in the team time trial. We put our money on Bardet to win this stage.

 

We have little doubt that Vincenzo Nibali will be the best climber later in the race but this finish doesn’t suit him. However, he is not too bad in an uphill sprint, especially when it’s very steep. If there had been some real specialists in this race, he would have had little chance but we won’t be surprised if he stamps his authority by winning the first battle in the mountains.

 

As said, we were a bit disappointed to see Mikel Landa in today’s stage but it is hard to gauge too much from a flat team time trial. He claims to be in good form and usually he has a better punch than Nibali for this kind of finish. Due to his difficult build-up, we are not totally convinced that his form is already good enough to compete with the Italian. On the other hand, he had a very similar approach in 2015 and back then he was very good in this race. The finale is not too different from the ones he has conquered in Pais Vasco in the last two years so he may win this stage too.

 

Domenico Pozzovivo has not been his usual self since his Giro d’Italia crash and so we are curious to see what he can do in this race. He is always strong in Trentino and he actually has a decent punch when it gets very steep. Tomorrow’s stage is the first big test of his form and this field he can win this kind of stage.

 

Mauro Finetto will have no chance on the longer climbs later in the race but this finale is good for the punchy Italian who has been flying all year. He has just finished third in the Giro dell’Appennino and he was second overall in Coppi e Bartali where the climbs are very similar. He is by far the uphill sprinter of the favourites but the final climb could be too steep for him.

 

Jakob Fuglsang will be riding for Nibali but as he proved in Oman, he can still do well himself while supporting his leader. In fact, he may even be slightly better suited to this kind of finish than Nibali and if he is not forced to set the pace earlier on the climb, he could win this stage.

 

Sergey Firsanov is the in-form rider at the moment. Everybody was very impressed by his dominant solo show at the Giro dell’Appennino and he will be one to watch this week. He is not really suited to an uphill sprint but his good form will take him far.

 

Jean-Christophe Peraud is the third Ag2r card. He has not been at his best since the 2014 Tour de France but now he has finally had a solid build-up without any health issues. If he can return to his former level, the former mountain biker can do well on a short, steep climb.

 

We are curious to see how 19-year-old Egan Bernal will do. The Colombian was flying at Coppi e Bartali where he was unfortunate to crash while riding with Firsanov. He wasn’t very strong in Appennino so his form is uncertain but he should be able to do well here if he can get into a good position.

 

Gianni Moscon will be riding for Mikel Landa but he may be allowed to take his own chance, especially if Astana do all the work on the climb. He has been really good all year and he is better suited to this kind of finish than his captain.

 

Pierpaolo Ficarra and Giulio Ciccone are two of the most exciting Italian climbers and they have been absolutely impressive this year. They probably lack the experience to win here but they could both deliver a solid performance.

 

Finally, we will point to Eduard Prades. This finale doesn’t suit Caja Rural captains Hugh Carthy and Sergio Pardilla and instead Prades could be given his chance. The climb is probably too long and too steep for the fast Spaniard but if he can stay with the best until the final 500m, he may have a chance in a sprint.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Romain Bardet

Other winner candidates: Vincenzo Nibali, Mikel Landa

Outsiders: Domenico Pozzovivo, Mauro Finetto, Jakob Fuglsang, Sergey Firsanov

Jokers: Jean-Christophe Peraud, Egan Bernal, Gianni Moscon, Pierpaolo Ficarra, Giulio Ciccone, Eduard Prades