Mikel Landa proved that he is fully back on track after his bout of illness and that he is ready to take on Vincenzo Nibali and Alejandro Valverde at the Giro d’Italia. With Nibali delivering a surprisingly poor performance, the Basque is now in pole position to win the race and he could very well ride to another dominant solo win in Thursday’s queen stage where the longer climb should suit him even better than today’s short ramp.

 

The course

This year there will only be one stage with more real mountains and so the climbers have to make the most of stage 3 which is where they have to win the race. Two big climbs will be on the menu and even though there is no summit finish, the fact that there is only a fast descent after the final climb means that there will be little time for a regrouping to take place.

 

For the second day in a row, the riders will have to cover more than 200km as they travel 204.6km from the Austrian city Sillian to Mezzolombardo in Italy. The official start will be given when they cross the border and then they will travel back along the roads that they used for stage 2 which means that they will head in a westerly direction along slightly descending roads. After around 60km of racing, they will turn to the southwest, passing through Bressanone and the intermediate sprint at the 70.1km. The downhill roads will continue until they have passed the city of Bolzano and then the climbing hostilities will begin.

 

Instead of continuing straight towards the finish, they will deviate from the direct route to go up the category 1 Nova Ponente (19.4km, 5.8%). It has a pretty easy first part where the gradient is mostly 3-6% but it get much steeper in the final 6km, with the 16th kilometre even averaging 10.7%. The top comes at the 124km mark and then the riders will stay on the plateau for around 10km before they reach the descent which ends with 53.5km to go.

 

The riders will now continue along flat roads in a southwesterly direction until they reach the finishing city of Mezzolombardo. Instead of ending the race here, they will do one lap of a 25.6km circuit that is simply brutal. It consists of the category 1 climb of Fai della Paganella (11.6km, 7.0%) followed by a descent back to the finish. The climb is very regular at 7-9% for the first 10km until it levels out at 3.6% for the final 1.6km. The top is located 14km from the finish and the final part of the stage is almost all downhill. The descent is not very technical though. There are a few hairpin turns with 5km to go but the final 4km follow a road that is only very slightly winding. The descent ends with 2.5km to go and then there is a flat kilometre that leads to the final 1500m which are downhill at a gradient of 2%.

 

Mezzolombardo has not hosted a finish of a major bike race for more than a decade.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The excellent weather will continue for another day as Thursday will be a day with bright sunshine and a maximum temperature at the finish of 22 degrees. There will be a light wind from a southerly direction which means that it will be a cross-headwind for most of the day after the opening crosswind section. There will be a headwind on the final climb and a tailwind on the descent until the riders turn into a cross-headwind for the final 5km.

 

The favourites

The feeling of déjà vu is now complete. One year ago Mikel Landa fell ill in the beginning of the season and postponed his comeback until late March. He rode a solid Vuelta al Pais Vasco where he won a stage but failed to be competitive in the top of the GC. Finally, he positioned himself as a real Giro contender by riding an excellent Giro del Trentino.

 

History has repeated itself in 2016 and the description fully covers Landa’s 2016 season after he rode to a storming win in today’s summit finish whose short, steep ramp didn’t suit him. Instead of waiting for the final sprint, he was brave to attack into a headwind and even though Sergey Firsanov got close in the end, he proved that his health issues are fully behind him.

 

While Landa boosted his confidence significantly, Vincenzo Nibali was dealt a huge blow. He had done nothing to hide that he was here to win the race as he had done in 2013 but he was never really in contention. Of course the finale didn’t suit him and he was poorly positioned at the bottom of the climb as Astana had used almost their entire team to chase down the break. However, his teammates Jakob Fuglsang and Michele Scarponi were similarly poorly positioned and both finished with the best.

 

Nibali now seems to be out of the battle for victory but he will still try to boost his confidence by doing better in tomorrow’s stage. As he had to blow some cobwebs after a long time without racing, there is a solid chance that he will do much better but it is hard to see him turn things out completely. As Fuglsang is still within striking distance, he will probably put himself at his teammate’s side and he may even skip or abandon the final stage to turn his attention to Liege.

 

The hardest climb comes in the final stage but as there is a flat run-in to the finish, tomorrow is the big day for the climbers. Fai della Paganella is a tough climb where the best riders can make a difference and as there is virtually no flat roads after the top, it is almost like a summit finish where the differences can be maintained all the way to the line. The final descent is not very difficult so it will be hard for the best descenders to make a big difference so it should be a stage that is determined by the climbing legs. After a big battle between the favourites, this stage will probably show who’s going to win the 2016 Giro del Trentino.

 

Today’s stage turned out to be very fast as all the continental teams rode very aggressively in the beginning. Tomorrow it will be more of the same and even though there will be a headwind, we can expect it to be another fast day. Today Astana had to do almost all the work but tomorrow it will be left to Sky to chase down the early break and we will probably see Xabier Zandio and Christian Knees ride on the front for most of the day.

 

It cannot be ruled out completely that a breakaway will have a chance. Sky have already won a stage and will probably be pleased to see the bonus seconds disappear. However, Ag2r and Gazprom-Rusvelo definitely want a stage win and we expect those teams to come to the fore to make sure that the GC riders will battle it out on the final climb.

 

Ag2r have three cards to play and like Astana, they will have strength in numbers. Sky have a good team and Ian Boswell and Philip Deignan both rode really well today. However, if Ag2r or hit out very early with their best names, Landa could be isolated. This will put him on the defensive and the best way to prevent his rivals from using their strength in number may be to launch his own attack.

 

Furthermore, Landa is a known as a very hungry rider who always chases victory when he eyes a chance. There is little doubt that tomorrow’s stage is a real target as it is a big test in the high mountains. Today he proved that he is the best climber in the race and he is also a pretty good descender. Obviously he would have preferred it to be a summit finish but as the descent is not technical, gaps are likely to be maintained. On paper, only Nibali can match his climbing skills and as the Italian is not at his best, we expect Landa to claim another solo win. Furthermore, he is faster than most of his GC rivals in a flat sprint and so he is our favourite.

 

It has never been a secret that Sergey Firsanov is in the form of his life. The Russian won Coppi e Bartali and received huge appraisal for his impressive solo ride into a strong headwind at the Giro dell’Appennino. Today he again underlined his form and if he had been better positioned at the bottom of the climb, he is very likely to have followed Landa. He has never really been competitive in the high mountains but he is obviously climbing better than ever before. It’s definitely not impossible for him to ride to another solo win and he could very well take another win here even though he is hampered by his lack of sprinting skills.

 

Romain Bardet did well in today’s stage but faded a bit in the end. Tomorrow’s longer climb suits him a lot better and he will benefit from the descent as he is a great descender. Furthermore, he is not slow in a flat sprint and this makes this a good stage for him. The main question is how deep he will dig so close to his big goal in Liege.

 

Jakob Fuglsang proved that he is riding really well as he was in a poor position at the bottom of the climb. He is now the clear Astana leader and as it is the case for most, he will be more comfortable on tomorrow’s longer climb where the gradients are less severe. He has climbed really well all year, most notably in Oman, and he could bounce back for Astana by winning this stage.

 

Domenico Pozzovivo delivered his best performance since last year’s Tour de Suisse and even though he is clearly not at his best yet, it is a sign of improvement. He can’t sprint and he is still a bit afraid on the descents after his Giro crash but he has one big advantage. Ag2r can have strength in numbers and this can allow them to play a tactical game in the finale as they did last year when Pozzovivo also won stage 3.

 

We were pretty surprised to see Damiano Cunego do so well today. The Italian crashed hard at Strade Bianche and showed no sign of form at Amstel Gold Race. However, he has apparently trained well at altitude. Tomorrow’s longer climb suits him less but among the favourites in this race, he is by far the best sprinter and as he is also a good descender, it’s a good stage for him if he can keep up with the best on the climb.

 

This also opens the door for Jean-Christophe Peraud. The Frenchman did pretty well in today’s stage and proves that he is still competitive. It will be a surprise if he emerges as the best climber but if the best can’t make a difference, a bigger group can gather at the top and this will allow Ag2r to play the tactical game.

 

We have always had huge confidence in Giulio Ciccone who has been impressive right from the start of his neo-pro season. A few days after playing a key role for Colbrelli at Amstel Gold Race, he finished fourth in today’s stage. He is not fast in a sprint but as he will be less marked in the finale, he may take his chance.

 

Hugh Carthy is one of the most talented climbers as he proved by finishing in the top 10 in the highly competitive Volta a Catalunya. He did pretty well in a stage that didn’t suit him so he should definitely be with the best on tomorrow’s longer climb.

 

The longer climb should also suit Emanuel Buchmann who has been riding very well recently and he is part of a strong Bora-Argon 18 team that has numerous cards to play. We are also curious to see how Pierpaolo Ficara will do on a longer climb where positioning is less important.

 

Finally, we won’t write Vincenzo Nibali off completely. Even though it is hard for him to turn things around, you can never rule out one of the best climbers in the world. His aggressive mindset will probably see him hit out early and with his good descending skills, it’s actually a pretty good stage for him.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Mikel Landa

Other winner candidates: Sergey Firsanov, Romain Bardet

Outsiders: Domenico Pozzovivo, Damiano Cunego, Jean-Christophe Peraud

Jokers: Giulio Ciccone, Hugh Carthy, Emanuel Buchmann, Pierpaolo Ficara, Vincenzo Nibali