Giro del Trentino stage 4 preview

Mikel Landa looked brutally strong in the queen stage but paid the price for a lack of team support and now finds himself in a very vulnerable situation as he goes into the final stage. The hardest climb of the entire race will be the perfect battleground for the Basque but with a long, relatively flat run-in to the finish, a poor team and tactics could very well cost the strongest rider the overall win in the race

 

The course

Apart from the time trials along the shores of Lake Garda, there are never completely flat stages in the Giro del Trentino which is a race made for pure climbers. Of course the final stage of this year’s race also ventures into the high mountains but this time the final big climb comes far from the finish and instead the race finishes on a difficult circuit that is more made for puncheurs. Last year it opened the door for a different kind of riders than those who usually excel on the long climbs in Trentino as it happened when a very similar stage was used in 2015. However, there are a few changes compared to last year’s stage and the stage is a lot tougher than it was 12 months ago. With a much steeper climb pretty close to the finish, the GC will come into play on the final day. The stage has been created as part of the merger with the Trofeo Melinda race and the race will again include many of the climbs from the Italian classic and finish on the circuit that was used at last year’s race too.

 

Again it will travel between the cities of Malé and Cles and the distance of 161.1km is almost unchanged. After doing a flat loop around the starting city, the riders will head up an uncategorized climb and a descent to the hilly terrain north of Cles where they will tackle three circuits that each has a big climb. Along the way, they will pass the site of the intermediate sprint at the 58.6km mark.

 

The first circuit includes the category 2 climb of Fondo (3.4km, 5.9%) at the 73.1km mark while the challenge on the second circuit is the category 2 climb of Marca di Rurno (7km, 3.6%). The summit of that climb comes with 59.7km to go and the descent leads to the final circuit which is the hardest. Its main challenge is the very steep category 1 climb of Forcella di Brez (6km, 9.6%) which is a brutal ascent whose gradient barely drops below the 10% mark in the final 3km.

 

The top comes with just 34.8km to go and the descent leads straight to the Trofeo Melinda circuit which the riders will hit with 14km to go. It’s a rolling affair without many flat roads but it doesn’t include any real climbs. There’s a 2km rising section with an average gradient of 3.1% and 700m of around 11% that ends with 3km to go. From there, the road is slightly descending until the riders get to the final 500m which are flat. There are no real technical challenges and there is just one real turn in the final 5km, with the corner coming 3.5km from the line.

 

Compared to last year’s stage which was won by a breakaway, the stage has been made a lot harder. The Fondo climb only features once and the Passo Pedaia has been replaced by Marca di Rurno and most notably the brutal Forcella di Brez. That’s a much harder climb and unlike last year, the final ascent even comes much closer to the finish as the riders will only do one lap of the circuit instead of the two they did 12 months ago.

 

Last year Paolo Tiralongo, Fabio Duarte and David Arroyo escaped after a brutally fast and aggressive start to the stage. It came down to a 3-rider sprint that was won by Tiralongo who won his second stage in just three years. Cles also hosted a stage of the Giro del Trentino in 2006 when Damiano Cunego beat arch-rival Gilberto Simoni in a sprint from a small group to take the leader’s jersey on the second day of the race. He would go on to win the race overall.

 

The Fondo climb was used at the finish of the 2014 and 2013 Italian Championships that were won by Vincenzo Nibali and Ivan Santaromita respectively. The last five winners of the Trofeo Melinda were Carlos Betancur in 2012, Davide Rebellin in 2011, Nibali in 2010, Giovanni Visconti in 2009 and Leonardo Bertagnolli in 2008.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

It has been a great start to the race but that could change on the final day. The cloudy morning is likely to be dry but there is a 30-40% chance of rain in the afternoon when the race is set to finish. The maximum temperature will be 18 degrees. There will be a light wind from a southerly direction which means that the riders will mainly have tailwind on all the climbs and headwind on the descents. It will be headwind in the first part of the final circuit and then a tailwind in the second half.

 

The favourites

The organizers could have not have written a better script for the final stage. Last year the final day had a similar course but it didn’t include the steep Forcella di Brez and it was pretty easy for Sky to control things. Hence, the final day ended as a bit of a disappointment from a spectator’s point of view but this year things will be completely different.

 

Today Mikel Landa looked like he was totally at ease on the final climb but he paid the price for a lack of team support and it as simply impossible for him to cover the many attacks in the flat final section. He made a mistake by not covering Jakub Fuglsang’s wheel and when the Dane and Sergey Firsanov escaped, he had to dig deep to close to gap. That made him vulnerable to attacks and it was Tanel Kangert who made the right move to get back into serious GC contention.

 

There is little doubt that Landa is the best climber in the race and if tomorrow’s stage had had a mountaintop finish, he would probably have sealed the overall win by riding to another stage victory. However, the relatively flat finale means that we have the perfect script for an excellent end to the race. The strongest rider is up against two strong teams, Astana and Ag2r, that both have cards to play. If he again finds himself isolated after the final climb, he has to be very lucky to come away with the win. For this scenario, the stage could not have designed in a better way.

 

Today Landa seemed to be in a class of his own and it looked like he could ride away whenever he wanted. However, he never launched his own attack which was a bit of a surprise. He claims that he was never really in trouble on the climb and if that’s true, it was a huge mistake to make himself vulnerable in this way.

 

Tomorrow he has to avoid a similar scenario at all costs. If he is again up against three Ag2r riders and two from Astana, it is very hard to imagine that he will be able to control things. It’s hard to believe that his teammates will suddenly come good, especially as they have to control what will be a fast and furious start to the stage so his only real chance is to attack which is often the best defence.

 

Last year the first part of this stage was hugely exciting with constantly changing race situations as Ag2r tried to blow the race to pieces. With such a tactical finale on the menu, it will be more of the same tomorrow. Sky would love to have riders up the road but Astana will never allow that to happen. With Astana and Ag2r both wanting to make the race hard, we can expect a brutally fast start that will be very hard for Sky to control.

 

If Sky can’t get riders up the road, they hope for the break to stay away. There are now significant time gaps so if they can send a non-dangerous breakaway up the road, they will be pleased to see the bonus seconds disappear. However, things are different for Astana and Ag2r and we expect those two teams to make sure that the break will be brought back and make the race hard. Then it will probably come down to a showdown on Forcella di Brez.

 

Forcella di Brez is clearly the hardest climb of the race and can do a huge amount of damage. It’s really a beast that gives no room for recovery. The goal of Astana and Ag2r is to isolate Landa early and get to the top with a small group like today. Landa has to avoid such a scenario and as he can’t cpunt on his teammates, his only real chance is to make a big attack.

 

Landa didn’t attack in today’s stage and was probably scared by the headwind. However, he seemed to be so much at ease that we expect him to be able to drop everybody on this very steep climb. If that happens, we could be in for an excellent chase in the finale, with Landa trying to keep a group of chasers at bay.

 

There are only 14 flat kilometres after the descent so it can definitely go both ways, especially as the chase group will probably contain less than a handful of riders after such a steep climb. The headwind clearly benefits the chasers but the toughness of the climb means that Landa could very well have a pretty big advantage at the top.

 

If we are right, the stage can have three different outcomes. Landa could stay away and ride to a solo win. If he is caught, we will have a very uncontrollable situation like today and then it is likely that a late attack will pay off. If the stars align for Landa, he can get allies to close the gaps – especially if Ag2r and Astana start to ride against each other – and then it can come down to a sprint from a small group.

 

We put our money on Landa. The Basque looked so impressively strong in today’s stage that it is hard to imagine that anyone will be able to keep up with him. If he goes hard on the Forcella di Clez, he will probably get a big advantage at the top and as the chasers will have to go hard, the group will explode. Landa is no bad descender and with just 14km of flat terrain, we believe that he will be strong enough to make it to finish and win both the stage and the overall.

 

If not, the door will be open for everyone to attack. Landa will of course mark the Astana riders closer than the rest so it will be harder for Jakob Fuglsang and Tanel Kangert to get clear. In fact, we are not even sure that Kangert will be able to survive this very steep climb. Ag2r are in a better position to win the stage as their climbers are a bit further down in the standings and they won’t be marked as closely as Astana.

 

This opens the door for Jean-Christophe Peraud. The Frenchman is 38 seconds behind and so he is not an immediate threat to Landa. The Frenchman looked very strong in today’s stage and was one of the most aggressive riders. Furthermore, he is one of the strongest in relatively flat terrain so it could very well be a stage win for the veteran.

 

Domenico Pozzovivo will also be less watched. He is a bit closer in GC but he doesn’t pose the same kind of threat in this finale. The Italian seems to be back on track after his Giro crash and he should definitely be there in the finale. He has recently turned himself into a bit of a winner and last year he won a stage of the Volta a Catalunya by doing just what he has to do tomorrow: attack from a group of climbers in a flat finale.

 

The Bora-Argon 18 pair of Emanuel Buchmann and Patrick Konrad were very strong in today’s stage and they could be there again tomorrow. Today Konrad was the strongest on the climb and he also won the sprint for second. It’s no surprise that he has a solid sprint as he has always been pretty fast. He won’t be too heavily marked and he can win the stage both by attacking and by sprinting from a small group. Bouchmann will have to attack but today he showed that he is ready to do so.

 

Today Egan Bernal was very strong on the climb. He is far behind in the overall standings so no one will be very concerned with him in the finale. It’s a big ask for a 19-year-old to win this kind of stage but team tactics could play into his hands.

 

Mauro Finetto is strong in hilly terrain but he usually suffers on the longer climbs. Hence, it was a great performance by him to finish just 52 seconds behind the best in today’s stage. If a regrouping takes place in the finale, he could be there. Then he will try to control things and he will be in a class of his own if it comes down to a sprint. The climb will be a tough challenge but in a bigger group he will be the clear favourite.

 

Stefano Pirazzi was his usual aggressive self in today’s stage. He is clearly close to his 2013 level and he should be up there again tomorrow. It won’t be easy for him to stay with the best but if he is there in the flat final part, he will attack relentlessly. He has already won once in 2016 and one of his attacks could pay off again tomorrow.

 

Finally, we will of course point to the Astana pair of Jakob Fuglsang and Tanel Kangert. Fuglsang seems to be the second best climber in the race and he will definitely be there in the finale. Kangert is less strong on the climbs but he knows how to pace himself really well. If they are both there, they will attack in turns. It will be harder for them to get clear as they will be marked but in this kind of finale, everything is possible.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Mikel Landa

Other winner candidates: Jean-Christophe Peraud, Domenico Pozzovivo

Outsiders: Patrick Konrad, Emanuel Buchmann, Egan Bernal

Jokers: Mauro Finetto, Romain Bardet, Stefano Pirazzi, Jakob Fuglsang, Tanel Kangert