The Italian cycling calendar was once loaded with one-day races but nowadays there are barely any left. One of the few survivors is the hilly Giro dell’Appennino and even though it is now a standalone event in a month where there aren’t many races in the country, it still plays a crucial role as a test event for the Giro d’Italia for many of the local teams and riders.

Being one of cycling’s traditional key countries, Italy once had a very rich calendar of one-day races. Botje the spring and the autumn were loaded with great classics in some of the best cycling terrain in the world. Classic riders with a good punch on the climbs and a fast finish excelled on the lumpy courses of the many race in one of cycling’s main countries.

Unfortunately, the tough economic times have taken its toll on the calendar and now there are barely any races left. The only one-day races in February are GP Costa degli Etruschi and Trofeo Laigueglia, only Strade Bianche and GP Industria have survived on the March calendar and in April, there is just one event left. The Being one of the oldest races on the Italian calendar, the Giro dell’Appennino is still on the menu as a great preparation event for the Giro d’Italia and impressively it has only been cancelled during the Second World War since it was first held in 1934.

The race may be an old one but it has never had a fixed date or format. The location has changed several times and it has been held in September, August, April, May and June. Its great history is reflected by the list of winners which includes big names like Fausto Coppi , Emile Daems , Franco Balmamion , Michele Dancelli , Gianni Motta , Felice Gimondi , Gösta Pettersson , Giovanni Battaglin , Francesco Moser, Gianni Bugno, Claudio Chiappuchi, Francesco Casagrande, Damiano Cunego, Gilberto Simoni and Gianbattista Baronchelli. It was an amateur event until the War but has been a pro race since then and is now a 1.1 race on the UCI calendar.

Like many other Italian races, it has suffered in recent years and it no longer attracts the strong field that it did in the past. In fact, it is mainly an Italian affair and things haven’t become easier by the demise of many of the other one-day races. Nowadays, it is a bit of a standalone event and this gives the big teams less of an incentive to travel to Italy. It still serves as a great build-up event for the Giro d’Italia but it is more of a warm-up race for the Giro del Trentino which starts just two days later.

Giro dell’Appennino is a typical Italian one-day race. It includes some serious climbing but as it has a flat finale, it often comes down to a reduced bunch sprint. Like most other Italian races, it is a perfect event for riders who climb well and can sprint from a small group in the end. On the other hand, the landmark climb of the Passo della Borchetta means that it is harder than most of the other one-day races and this means that a select group of climbers often decides the race.

That’s what happened in 2015 when Omar Fraile attacked from an 8-rider group to take the first pro win of his career. Stefano Pirazzi also made a late attack to take second while Damiano Cunego won the small sprint for third.

The course

Unlike many other Italian one-day races, Giro dell’Appennino is not a circuit race. Instead, it travels 196.6km over from Novi Ligure in the Po Valley through the hilly terrain just north of the Mediterranean coast and the city of Genova to the coastal city of Chiavari just a few kilometres west of Genova. Starting from the Po Valley, the first part of the race is completely flat but that’s only a warm-up for the brutal second part.

The climbing hostilities kick off after 76.1km when the riders hit the bottom of the landmark climb of Passo della Bocchetta (9.9km, 4.5%, max. 12%) which only gets steeper and steeper and has a tough second part. The descent leads straight to the Crocetta d’Orera (7.3km, 4.6%, max.9%) which doesn’t have the same kind of steep gradients. From the top, the road continues to climb all the way the top of Passo della Scoffera (9.9km, 1.8%, max.7%) which is more of a gradual uphill section than a real climb.

After a long descent, the riders get to the difficult finale with Colle Caprile (7.9km, 4.9%, max. 7%), Ruta di Camogli (3.8km, 6.6%, max. 10%) and Le Grazie (4.1km, 4.2%, max. 8%) in quick succession, with short descents in between. None of these climbs are very steep but the total amount of climbing will take its toll at the end of a hard day. The summits come with 37.5km, 22km and 5.3km to go respectively and the final climb is followed by a fast descent with wide hairpin curves. It ends 2.5km from the finish and then the riders will travel along flat, big avenues until they get to a sharp turn at the flamme rouge. The final kilometre follows a big, wide road and the final 500m are straight with the exception of a slight bend in a roundabout 300m from the line.

Compared to last year’s course, the race has been changed completelt as the finish has been moved from Pontedecimo on the outskirts of Genova to Chiavari. Passo della Bochetta comes much earlier and the final climbs are shorter and closer to the finish as there was a pretty long descent at the end of last year’s race.

The weather

The race is likely to be made harder by the rainy conditions that are forecasted for Sunday. Rain will be falling in the morning and early afternoon while the sun is expected to come out near the end. However, it won’t be cold as there will be a maximum temperature of 18 degrees at the finish but it will of course be completely different on the climbs. There will be a moderate wind from a southerly direction which means that it will be a headwind for most of the day. After Passo della Bochetta, there will be a crosswind section and then it will be a headwind on the third and fourth climb. It will be a cross-headwind in the finale and on the final two climbs.

The favourites

Giro dell’Appennino has always been one of the hardest Italian one-day races and the new course is likely to make things even harder. With three climbs and virtually no flat roads inside the final 40km, it will be a hugely selective race and the wet conditions will only make things harder. None of the climbs are very steep but the total amount of climbing means that it will be a day of attrition that only leaves the strongest in the end.

It will be interesting to see which teams will dictate proceedings. Lampre-Merida, Caja Rural, Androni and Bardiani all have strong teams with more than one card to play and they all want a hard race to get rid of the faster finishers. They want the race to get selective pretty early and will probably make sure that the early break won’t have a chance. In this kind of field, the selection is likely to be pretty big very early and we expect it to be a long day of gradual elimination where a relatively small group will battle it out on the final three climbs.

The hardest climb is the penultimate ascent but it probably comes a bit too early for a lone rider to make it to the finish. The final climb is not very hard but there will be an 8% section where the best can try to make a difference. As it comes at the end of a hard day, there is a solid chance that the best rider will get away on a climb that should usually not be very selective and as there is barely any flat road in the end, it is definitely possible to stay away. On the other hand, the flat finish means that sprinting skills could be important.

The field is loaded with good climbers but only one of them is a fast finishers. Mauro Finetto failed to find a pro team for 2016 but he has already proved that he deserves to return to the highest level. He signed with Uniero when the season had already started and after he had used a few races to find his legs, he has been absolutely flying. Recently, he was second overall in the very hard Settimana Coppi e Bartali which included much steeper climbs than this race. In general, Finetto is one of the best Italian riders on hilly courses and he is fast in a sprint from a small group. There are better climbers than him in this race but we doubt that they will be able to get rid of Finetto on the relatively easy final climb. In a sprint, he will be unrivalled. The big challenge is that he will be isolated in the finale but in a race where the legs will do the talking that may not be too much of a problem. Finetto is our favourite.

Sergey Firsanov beat Finetto in Coppi e Bartali and the Russian is likely to be even stronger now after he has spent a few weeks training at altitude. He has always been one of the best riders for hilly Italian one-day races but this year he seems to be better than ever before. He could very well ride to another solo win but he may also have a chance in a sprint if he has a few riders for company. He is not fast but apart from Finetto, none of the best climbers are.

In Coppi e Bartali, the hugely talented Egan Bernal stayed with Firsanov until he crashed on the final descent in the queen stage. Androni manager GianniSavio has always claimed that the 19-year-old is a huge climbing talent and he has already proved his boss right. If Bernal has the legs he had in Coppi e Bartali, there is no reason that he can’t ride to a solo win here.

Lampre-Merida have the strongest team with numerous potential winners. Their best card is probably Kristijan Durasek who is getting ready for his title defence in Turkey and can be expected to be in good form. He was flying at this time of the year in 2015 and if he has the same legs, he can ride to a solo win here. He is not fast in a sprint but if Lampre-Merida have more cards to play, they can attack in turns.

Simone Petilli and Przemyslaw Niemiec can also be expected to be there for the Italian team. Petilli is a hugely talented climber and recently showed his great potential in Pais Vasco. Niemiec is no longer the rider he once was and he has not really been riding well yet. However, he should be getting better as we approach the Giro. Louis Meintjes is a fourth option but he is not at his best after he crashed in Catalonia and abandoned Pais Vasco due to hypothermia.

Caja Rural have two strong climbers in Sergio Pardilla and Hugh Carthy who have both shown great form. Pardilla was able to follow the impressive Movistar riders at Klasika Primavera where he finished third and Carthy was in the top 10 in a very competitive Volta a Catalunya and in the GP Miguel Indurain. None of them are fast so they have to arrive solo at the finish but they will be among the best climbers here. Angel Madrazo is a third option. He is faster but the course is probably a bit too hard for him.

Bardiani are here with Manuel Bongiorno and Stefano Pirazzi. The latter is very inconsistent but he seems to have hit his best form since 2013. He won the very hard final stage in Coppi e Bartali and when he is at 100%, he is a very good climber. There is no doubt that he will go on the attack but he has to gauge his efforts carefully in such a tough race. Bongiorno has trained at altitude for the Giro and is definitely one of the best climbers here. However, he has never really been very good when he has just finished such a training camp.

Finally, we will point to the Androni duo of Francesco Gavazzi and Rodolfo Torres. The former is definitely the fastest rider among the good climbers but we doubt that we will be able to survive this kind of very tough course. Rodolfo Torres was absolutely flying in 2015 where he finished second in the Vuelta queen stage but he has not been at his best in 2016. However, he hasn’t raced for a while so if he has improved his form, he will be a danger man.

***** Mauro Finetto

**** Sergey Firsanov, Egan Bernal,

*** Kristijan Durasek, Simone Petilli, Sergio Pardilla, Hugh Carthy, Stefano Pirazzi

** Manuel Bongiorno, Angel Madrazo, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Rodolfo Torres, Francesco Gavazzi

* Louis Meintjes, Eduard Prades, Franco Pellizotti, Antonio Santoro, Alexander Foliforov, Alexandr Kolobnev, Luca Chirico, Matteo Busato, Daniel Martinez, David Belda, Gianfranco Zilioli.