Bad weather almost completely destroyed one of the most beautiful and important stages of the Giro d’Italia and many GC contenders are now licking their wounds after suffering huge time losses in the treacherous conditions in Chianti. Luckily they will get an immediate chance to bounce back in the hardest mountain stage of the first half of the race and even though the climb to Sestola is far from being the hardest in the business, a tough penultimate ascent offers ample ground to try to make a difference before the GC is put on hold for a few days.

 

The course

After a well-deserved rest day, there will be no chance to ease back into competition for the GC riders who are probably still trying to come to terms with the result of the time trial. After one day of recovery, it is straight into the mountains on stage 10 which offers the second summit finish of the race. As it is customary in the race, the final climb is not very tough at this early point in the race but as it comes at the end of a long stage with barely any flat roads and a difficult category 1 climb in the finale, it offers a first chance for the climbers to strike back after the time trial.

 

The stage will bring the riders over 219 from Campi Bisenzio where they spent the rest day, to Sestola. The first part will see the riders head north into the hilly area around the finishing circuit. After the first 25km, this mountain stage does not even feature a single flat metre. Just past Pistoia, the route climbs up the category 3 Passo della Collina (12.7km, 5.3%, max. 8%) and across the Tuscan-Emilian Apennines. After dropping quickly into Porretta Terme, the route climbs up again to tackle the Pietracolora category 3 climb (8.7km, 6.1%, max. 11%), leading into Valle del Samone. A short flat sector follows, leading to Marano sul Panaro.

 

Here the riders will change direction and head to the west and south as the route starts to climb and descend constantly over 70km, all the way up to the Pian del Falco category 1 climb (16.3km, 5.2%, max. 13%). Along the way, they will contest the intermediate sprints at the 146.1km and 178.9km marks. The numbers of the climb are deceptive as it can be divided into three parts. The first 5km average 6.9% and then there are 7km of almost flat roads that average just 1.8%. The final part of the climb features long stretches with double-digit gradients and averages 8.9%. Before they reach the steep section, they pass through Sestola just a few metres from the finish line.

 

The final 16km comprise a fast and technical descent that leads from the summit to Fanano. The descent can be divided into two quite steep parts: the first one runs on large roads, with just a few bends, and leads into a second one where the road is narrower at points, and which twists and turns all the way up into urban Fanano.

 

Next on the route is the final 7.4km climb that averages 5% and has a maximum of 8%. The gradient is relatively constant and it never gets steep. It is on a wide yet winding road that leads into the final 100m long, uphill home straight, on 6.5m wide asphalt road.

 

 

Sestola has hosted finishes twice. In 2014, the riders tackled a different finale and a longer climb to the finish and it was Pieter Weening who beat Davide Malacarne in a two-rider sprint after a long day in the breakaway. In 1971 Juan Manuel Fuente won the stage that finished on the Pian del Falco climb.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

After two days of luck, there was no mercy for the riders in Chianti where heavy rain completely destroyed the time trial. Today heavy rain has also been falling in Sestola but luckily things should be a bit better on Tuesday. After a sunny morning, however, there is a 50% chance of rain in the afternoon, with the biggest risk coming towards the end of the stage. The temperature at the finish will be around 15 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a northeasterly direction which means that it will be a cross-headwind for most of the day. After the feed zone, the riders will turn into a tail- and cross-tailwind in the run-in to the circuit. It will be a tailwind on the Pian del Falco and the first part of the descent. Then it will be a cross-headwind for most of the final part of the stage until the riders will turn into a cross-tailwind just before the flamme rouge.

 

The favourites

In cycling, it’s hard to find anything more frustrating than a stage being completely destroyed by bad weather. For some reason, the long time trial in the Giro always seems to be marred by rainy conditions and yesterday was the third year in a row when the outcome of the TT was significantly hampered by the bad weather. It allowed Primoz Roglic to confirm his newfound status as a TT specialist and it denied Bob Jungels a very likely stage win but it also robbed us from the chance to gauge the performance of the GC contenders and cost significant time for riders who could really have posed a threat later in the race.

 

Of course all GC riders had almost identical conditions but the results reflect their technical skills and willingness to take risks more than their strength. Hence, the time trial can’t really be used as a gauge of what we can expect in the coming days. Several strong riders lost time due to fear in the rainy condition and this means that they have been set significantly back.

 

The time trial was expected to be one of the most important stages of the entire race and was expected to create some huge time gaps. That turned out to be true as a very unfortunate Ilnur Zakarin and Esteban Chaves who was very scared in the rainy conditions, both lost more time than expected. On the other hand, the stage did barely nothing to separate the three pre-race favourites Vincenzo Nibali, Mikel Landa and Aleajndro Valverde who finished within 11 seconds of each other. Nibali and Valverde were always going to be close in this kind of TT but it is definitely a massive disappointment for both not to have been able to distance Lance. This was the stage that they had targeted as the place to put the Basque on the back foot before we head into his preferred terrain in the mountains but now the Sky leader heads into the second half in a much better position than he would have ever imagined.

 

It is a bit of a turnaround for Landa. On the first major climbs, he has clearly not been at his best level and it looked like the race could end as a bit of a disappointment. Now he is very much within striking distance and due to his limited preparation, there is little doubt that he will only get better and better. From now on, there are no very dangerous stages for him and especially the final week and the mountain time trial should be to his liking. In that sense, the situation seems to be very similar to last year’s Vuelta where he also suffered in the heat during the final week but as he started to improve his condition and it got colder, he got a long stronger, culminating with his stage win in Andorra and his crucial work for Aru in the final week. However, it is still hard to base too much on the time trial as the rainy conditions clearly favoured the Basque as it made it much less about power and TT skills.

 

The close battle between the pre-race favourites and the huge time loss for Chaves and Zakarin set the scene for a very interesting stage 10. Due to the length and the many climbs, it is by far the hardest stage yet and even though the final climb is not very hard, the proximity of the Plan del Falco means that the GC rider can move already in the steep part here. If it had just been about the final climb, it would probably have been a sprint from a reduced group but the Plan del Falco means that we can expect bigger time gaps.

 

Long mountain stages in the middle part of a grand tour are often suitable for breakaway and there is a solid chance that an escape group can make it to the finish here. That means that we can expect a very fast start with numerous attacks and as there is a tough climb in the early part, there is a big chance that we will get a strong breakaway with a lot of good climbers who can really make it to the finish in this kind of stage. This means that it will be hard for anyone to control things and make sure that things come back together for the GC riders to decide the stage.

 

Of course Etixx-QuickStep will do their best to honour the jersey but if they can make sure that none of the escapees are close on GC, they will be very happy to see the breakaway ride away with the bonus seconds. Hence, it will be up to some of the GC teams to bring the break back.

 

With a rather easy final climb, it’s a perfect opportunity for Alejandro Valverde to pick up 10 bonus seconds by winning a sprint. However, the Spanish team haven’t shown much initiative when it comes to chasing which is actually just a continuation of their usual habit in grand tours. Hence, there are no guarantees that the Spanish team will waste too much energy at this early point in the race so we doubt that they will take the initiative. Astana are afraid that Valverde will score bonus seconds so they are unlikely to work either.

 

Instead, it will probably be left to Orica-GreenEDGE, Katusha and Cannondale to do the work. Those three teams all saw their leaders lose a lot of time in the time trial and they need to bounce back as soon as possible. Esteban Chaves, Ilnur Zakarin and Rigoberto Uran all have reasonable hopes of a stage win in a stage like this and the Australian team have already shown their desire to chase in stage 6. Especially Ilnur Zakarin wants to show that he has not given up yet and so we expect those three teams to combine forces to bring the break back. It won’t be easy in such a tough stage though as only Cannondale have a really strong climbing team. With a strong break up the road, there is a solid chance that this is a stage for a breakaway but with three teams eager to chase, we put our moneys on the favourites to decide the stage.

 

If it all comes down to the final climb where there will be a headwind, it will probably be an uphill sprint. However, Astana will be eager to blow the race to pieces on the Plan del Falco and we expect the GC riders to start their battle already in the steep part near the top. With a technical descent on possibly wet roads and no valley section, a move from afar may pay off and at least aggression serves to isolate Valverde for the final climb. If the race is blown to pieces, the Spaniard will probably only have Andrey Amador at his side and that is probably not enough to control the attacks on the final climb. This means that we could very well see an outsider ride away with the win by attacking on the final climb. The three pre-race favourites will mark each other closely so it won’t be easy for Vincenzo Nibali or Mikel Landa to make a difference and as there will be a headwind on the final climb, they will have to move already on the Plan del Falco and then do a headwind time trial on the final ascent to win the stage. That’s a tough ask so we expect it to come down to a sprint from a small group of favourites or the stage to be won from a strong climber who can make a late move and get some freedom as he has lost a bit of time on GC.

 

Esteban Chaves fits that bill perfectly. Based on his performances at last year’s Vuelta, the Colombian was always going to be one of the best climbers in this race and he has fully confirmed that with a very strong ride in stage 6 and on the gravel roads in stage 8. He failed to confirm his huge TT progress in Chianti but that was more due to fear than a lack of speed. Afterwards, he admitted that he had been afraid in the rainy conditions and even though he is actually an excellent descender, he is probably still feeling the effects on his dramatic crash at the 2013 Trofeo Laigueglia. Hence, the result is no indication of his form.

 

On the contrary, he looked very strong when he accelerated in the final steep part on stage 6 and he again sprinted ahead over the top of the final climb on the gravel roads in Tuscany. Until now, he has looked like one of the strongest climbers in this race and due to his time loss, he won’t be too heavily marked by the biggest favourites. Furthermore, he has a very powerful uphill kick and this makes him suited to the rather easy final climb. He will be eager to bounce back so we expect him to ride aggressively in the finale. With one or two riders for company, he can definitely stay away and he won’t be easy to beat in a sprint.

 

In stage 6, Ilnur Zakarin was arguably the strongest rider in the race and he even claimed to be feeling bad! In the last two key stages, he claims to have felt a lot better. He opted for a defensive approach on the gravel roads which was certainly a wise choice as the stage didn’t suit him but he was on fire in the first part of the time trial. As he is not an excellent descender, it was no surprise that he lost time in the technical second part and then disaster struck in the final part where he crashed twice and had to change his bike once.

 

Luckily, he has not suffered any major injuries but of course his recovery will always be an issue. On the other hand, he will be extremely motivated to bounce back and even though this kind of final climb is too easy to suit him well, it is very unlikely that he will sit back. Due to his time loss, Nibali, Valverde and Landa may allow him to get away, especially if Valverde has no teammates. As he is also fast in an uphill sprint, there is a very big chance for Zakarin to bounce back by winning the stage.

 

Alejandro Valverde will be aiming for victory in a stage that suits him really well. The steep part of the hard climb is relatively short, the technical descent suits him well and no one is going to beat him in an uphill sprint on a 5% climb. After a slow start, he was probably the best rider on the gravel roads in Tuscany and he fully confirmed that he is one fire as most had expected him to be in the first part of the race.

 

The big challenge for Valverde will be to keep things together for a sprint. Movistar will probably try to have riders in the early break but he will rely heavily on Andrey Amador in the finale. As the Costa Rican has a great opportunity to take the maglia rosa, he may be keen to hold a little bit back in the headwind and this will make it even more difficult to control things. However, it could still very well come down to an uphill sprint in which Valverde is very likely to win.

 

Rigoberto Uran was another crash victim in the time trial. He was already far behind when he hit the deck at the 28km mark though so his massive time loss was not only a result of bad luck. It is just another confirmation of what has been the trend for the past year: while he is climbing better than ever before, the Colombian has gone from being a TT specialist to one of the worst time triallists among the GC contenders. However, he has left a very strong impression on the climbs and no one will be too concerned if he attacks in the finale as he is far behind on GC. With his fast sprint, the final climb suits him well and this obviously makes him a strong contender.

 

Jakob Fuglsang has proved that he is not afraid of moving from afar and he will probably do so again tomorrow. Astana want to isolate Valverde and as he is a GC threat, the Dane is the perfect card to play. The strategy nearly worked in stage 6 where he finished second behind lone escapee Tim Wellens and if Valverde is short on team support, he could again stay away tomorrow.

 

Domenico Pozzovivo is a much better time triallist than most think but on a rainy day, he was always going to lose a lot of time. That may now be a blessing in disguise as it will give him some freedom to attack. He is clearly still not the rider he was before his bad crash at last year’s race but in this race he has left a much better impression than he has done in the spring. The final climb doesn’t suit him but not everybody will be willing to chase if he takes off in the finale. That’s what he did in the Sestola stage two years ago and he will try to do so again.

 

Sergey Firsanov has confirmed that his spring results were no fluke and he has been able to stay with the best on the climbs. The Russian has lost lots of time in both time trials and is still regarded as an underdog. He is never afraid of attacking and if he moves on the final climb, he could very well stay away and so save the race for the Gazprom-Rusvelo team.

 

As said, it won’t be easy for Vincenzo Nibali to win the stage but it’s not impossible. To do so he will have to make the difference in the steep part on the first climb and then use his descending skills to extend his advantage. Apart from his small mistake in stage 6, he has looked very strong on the climbs and he should only get better and better. It won’t be easy to stay away in the headwind on the final climb but if he can isolate his rivals, it’s not impossible.

 

As said, a breakaway has a decent chance. For that, we will point to Igor Anton as a great candidate. The Basque has had some troubled years but occasionally he has shown flashes of his former self. In this rac,e he has been riding at a very good level and he even did a decent time trial yesterday. He is almost seven minutes behind in the overall standings so he is not a big GC threat. There’s a climb in the early part so he has a pretty good chance of making it into the break. Then he will be hard to match in the steep part on the penultimate climb.

 

Cannondale are here for Rigoberto Uran but they may also use their strong climbers to win a stage. Joe Dombrowski is riding is second grand tour and he is really confirming his talents. He is far behind in the overall standings but he has done very well on the climbs. After several years with health problems, he finally confirmed the potential that made him the hottest prospect on the transfer market a few years ago when he won last year’s Tour of Utah. If he can join the right break, he is likely to be the best climber.

 

Two years ago a stupid spectator robbed Manuel Bongiorno from a great chance to win the Monte Zoncolan stage. Since then he has never returned to the same lofty heights but in this race he has been doing better. He crashed in stage 6 but still did very well in the finale so his form is definitely good. He is very inconsistent so you never know what you will get but if he makes it into the right break on the rough climb in the beginning, he will be one of the strongest.

 

Przemyslaw Niemiec is no longer the rider he once was but at the Tour of Turkey he proved that he is still a decent climber. In this race, he is aiming for a stage win as he is no longer in GC contention and this stage is a good for him. He is very good at joining the right break, especially in a tough start like this one, and if he makes it into the right move he is likely to be one of the best climbers.

 

Tim Wellens is aiming for a second stage win and this one is another good opportunity for him. The tough start should make it easier for him to join the break and as he also has an eye on defending the mountains jersey, he should be part of the moves. He is not a pure climber but as none of the final climbs are really big mountains with tough gradients for a several kilometres, the finale suits him really well.

 

Finally, we will point to the Movistar pair of Jose Herrada and Carlos Betancur. The Spanish team want riders in the break for tactical purposes but very often this has opened the door for the escapees to go for a stage win. Herrada and Betancur are the likely candidates to try to join the move and if they makes it, they are strong enough to win the stage.

 

For other potential attackers, keep an eye on Ilya Koshevoy, Simone Petilli, Alessandro De Marchi, Matteo Busato, Georg Preidler, Darwin Atapuma, Stefan Denifl, Marcel Wyss and Hubert Dupont.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Esteban Chaves

Other winner candidates: Ilnur Zakarin, Alejandro Valverde

Outsiders: Rigoberto Uran, Jakob Fuglsang, Domenico Pozzovivo, Sergey Firsanov, Vincenzo Nibali

Jokers: Igor Anton, Joe Dombrowski, Manuel Bongiorno, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Tim Wellens, Carlos Betancur, Jose Herrada (all from a breakaway)