As expected, the climb to Sestola failed to do much damage and so stage 10 ended as status quo for the big favourites – with Mikel Landa’s withdrawal being the notable exception. Bob Jungels proved how much he has improved his climbing by surviving the Plan del Falco and can now enjoy the time in the spotlight for two days as the GC battle will be put on hold until Friday. First the attackers and puncheurs are licking their lips in anticipation of the very long stage 11 which is one of the most unpredictable of the entire race.

 

The course

After several days in hilly terrain, many riders will welcome the fact that they have reached the Po Valley which is completely flat and usually a paradise for sprinters. However, the hills are not far away and after spending most of stage 11 on the plains, the only purpose of the long opening part will be to bring the riders to the outskirts of the mountains. As it is so often the case in the Giro d’Italia, the organizers have included a tough finishing circuit where a late climb and an undulating finale could very well take the fast finishers out of contention.

 

Unlike the Tour and the Vuelta, the Giro always has very long stages and stage 11 is another one which has almost classics distance. It brings the riders over a massive 227km from Modena to Asolo, with the riders riding in a northeasterly direction all day. The stage is clearly divided into two parts: the first one runs flat from Modena to just before Asolo (approx. 200 km) while the second one is wavier and more challenging, leading into the finish.

 

The route runs across the entire Po Plain, partly on narrow roads, and partly on wide and mainly straight roads. There will be roundabouts, kerbs, speed bumps and traffic dividers while crossing urban areas but apart from that, the highlights will be the intermediate sprints at the 144.7km and 167.1km marks. Just past Maser, the road tackles a short yet very harsh category 4 climb up Forcella Mostaccin(2.9km, 7.8%, max. 16%). The first two kilometres average 8.1% while the final 900m are steeper at 10.2% and features double-digit gradients almost all the time.

 

The summit comes with 19.3km to go and is followed by a technical descent (narrow at points) leading to the Monfumo hills and to Castelcucco. Here, a series of undulations will lead to the final Asolo climb. Five kilometres before the finish, the road climbs up towards Asolo along a 1-km ramp with gradients of approx. 7% that leads into the old town centre through a mediaeval gateway and on a setts-paved stretch. A quick descent on wide roads with a hairpin bend follows, up to the final km. The last bend is 900m from the finish line, followed by a long home straight, just bending slightly, on 7.5-m wide and perfectly level asphalt road.

 

Asolo has hosted the Giro once in the past. In 2010, Vincenzo Nibali attacked on the famous Monte Grappa and dived down the descent to claim a solo stage win on a day when his leader Ivan Basso gained important time on Alexandre Vinokourov and surprise leader David Arroyo.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Again the riders had luck to avoid the forecasted rain and they will be pleased to know that the forecast for most of the coming days is looking promising which is important as we approach the Dolomites. Wednesday is expected to be sunny with just a few clouds making their presence felt late in the afternoon. Th maximum temperature at the finish will be 20 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a southeasterly direction which means that the riders will have a cross-tailwind for most of the day. On the circuit, it will mainly be a cross-tailwind in the first part that includes the climb and the descent and then it will be a cross-headwind for the final 8km.

 

The favourites

As expected, the final climb to Sestola was not hard enough to make a difference and as all the pre-race favourites could follow Michele Scarponi’s strong pace on the Plan del Falco, stage 10 failed to create any difference between the best riders. However, the stage still had a huge impact on the race as Mikel Landa was forced to abandon due to illness. It leaves Sky without their two leaders as Elia Viviani finished outside the time limit in stage 8 and so their series of bad luck in the Giro continues.

 

For four years in a row, they have had a genuine favourite for the race but their leader has never reached the finish. In 2013, Bradley Wiggins fell ill, in 2014 Richie Porte never got to the start as he also got ill, last year Porte crashed out of the race after a strong first week and now Landa has been forced out of the race. They will now hope to save the race in the way they did at last year’s Vuelta where Nicolas Roche won a stage after Froome had left Spain.

 

While Sky will try to come to terms with their new situation, Bob Jungels finds himself in an unexpected position. The Luxembourger went into the race with no GC ambitions but as he has been climbing better than ever, he now suddenly emerges as a top 10 and white jersey candidate. On paper, the long, steep climbs later in the race should be too hard for him but he already defied expectations by surviving the Plan del Falco which should usually have been too steep for him. Most importantly, last year’s Tour de France proved that he has excellent recovery skills as he was one of the strongest riders in the final week, riding in the breakaway in almost all of the Alpine stages. If there had been a time trial on the penultimate day, he would have been the overwhelming favourite and if he has the same recovery in this race, it won’t be impossible for him to hang onto a top 10 finish and deny Davide Formolo the white jersey that the Italians have always expected to be his.

 

Giulio Ciccone also deserves a mention. All year we have been deeply impressed by the Italian neo-professional. It all started when he climbed with the best at the GP Costa Degli Etruschi and since then he has just confirmed his potential in every race. We have had much the same feeling as we had two years ago when Davide Formolo emerged as the biggest Italian climbing talent but as his progress has stalled significantly, the Cannondale rider may now be passed by Ciccone in the grand tour hierarchy. Until now, most Italians have regarded Formolo as the natural successor to Nibali and Aru but there is little doubt that they have another great star in their making.

 

For now, Ciccone will have to wait a bit to show his skills and the GC battle will be on hold for the next two stages. While the sprinters will have their say in stage 10 which is the easiest of the entire race, stage 11 is one of the most unpredictable of the entire race. Forcella Mostaccin is a real beast that should be way too tough for all the sprinters if it is done at a fast pace and only the very best of the fast finishers will have a chance to survive. As the final part of the stage is by no means flat either, it will be a very tough finale.

 

That means that most of the riders have red-circled the stage as a perfect one for a breakaway. However, it is also a chance for some of the strongest sprinters to get rid of André Greipel and so this stage is one of their biggest objectives in the race. That makes it very hard to predict whether a breakaway will make it or whether a few teams will combine forces to bring it back together.

 

In any case, it will be a brutal start to the start and it will take a very long time for the break to be established. Almost all teams want to have a rider in the break and with a cross-tailwind pushing the riders towards Asolo, the stage is set to be extremely fast.

 

When the break has gone clear, it will be time to take stock of the situation and this is the time for the sprint teams to evaluate whether they believe in their sprinter. It very much depends on the composition of the breakaway. If a few key teams have missed the move, the break will probably stay away. Otherwise we expect a chase to be organized.

 

Lotto Soudal know that the finale is probably too hard for Greipel so we expect them so save energy for Thursday. However, Dimension Data and Giant-Alpecin have both made it clear that they want the stage to come down to a sprint for Kristian Sbaragli and Nikias Arndt who are both climbing better than most of the fast finishers. Hence, we expect those two teams to take the initiative.

 

Much will depend on whether Trek and Lampre-Merida believe in Giacomo Nizzolo and Sacha Modolo respectively. If those two teams also come to the fore, we expect the break to be caught. If not, the break is very likely to stay away. However, as both Nizzolo and Modolo claim to be feeling really good, we think that they will give it a try so we will put our money on the break to be caught.

 

However, that doesn’t mean that it will necessarily be a sprint. As said, none of the sprinters will survive if the pace is fast on the climb. That is unlikely though as none of the sprint teams can allow themselves to ride hard as it will put their own sprinter in difficulty. The GC teams will accelerate over the top as the descent is tricky but the door is open for late attacks. With the rolling nature of the finale, it will be very hard to bring back a strong group that escapes in the finale.

 

Hence, the stage has three possible outcomes: a reduced bunch sprint, a successful late attack or a win from a long-distance breakaway. Only one rider can realistically hope to win from every scenario. Sonny Colbrelli should find this stage to his liking. Among the fast finishers, he is by far the best climber and in fact he is the only sprinter who really wants the pace to be fast on the final climb. He has always been a good climber but after his injury-marred 2015 season, he has improved his level massively in 2016. He has been climbing with the best in all the hardest Italian one-day races and confirmed his huge potential by winning the sprint for third at the Amstel Gold Race.

 

Colbrelli proved his good form as he was the only rider to mix it up witht the GC riders in stage 4 and he was up there again when he sprinted to third on the uphill finishing straight one day later. Tomorrow he will have to consider his options carefully. He can join the early break, join the late attacks or wait for a final sprint. He is strong enough to win from every scenario so he will have to decide carefully what to do. In a flat sprint, he is not as fast as the sprinters but after a tough finale where most of them have been left behind, he should be the fastest. Colbrelli could very well make it two in a row for Bardiani.

 

Among the real sprinters, Kristian Saragli is the best climber. Dimension Data tried to do some damage in stage 7 but the finale was not hard enough to get rid of the pure sprinters. Tomorrow he will have a much better chance and it is just confirmation of his great form that he was 68th overall at the start of today’s stage. Of course the climb will be too hard if the pace is fast but he can definitely survive it is gentler. Last year he made it over such a climb before beating John Degenkolb in a sprint at the Vuelta and he could very well be the fastest rider in the group that makes it to the finish.

 

As said, a late move could very well succeed and this turns Giovanni Visconti into a great candidate. Of course the Italian was on the attack today but if he is not too tired, he will probably try to follow the attacks in the finale. The stage is very similar to the one he won in Vincenzo three years ago and he has all the skills to succeed here. He is strong on short, steep climbs, a great descender and very fast in a sprint.

 

The same goes for Diego Ulissi. The Italian is too close on GC to have any chance in a long-distance breakaway but in the finale he will probably try to follow the moves. His win in stage 4 proved that his form is good and just like Visconti, he is tailor-made for this finale. He is one of the best on short, steep climbs, a good descender and fast in a sprint.

 

Tim Wellens also fit the bill. The Belgian tried to join the break in today’s stage so he will be keen to try again tomorrow. He can both go early and wait for the finale and in any case, he will be one of the favourites. He is a good climber, an excellent descender and even though he is not as fast as Ulissi and Visconti, h also has a decent sprint.

 

If the race becomes really hard, Alejandro Valverde may fancy his chances in a sprint. We doubt that Movistar will ride to set up their captain for the win but if the opportunity presents itself, he will try in the sprint. He can beat most even in a flat sprint and would love to score 10 bonus seconds. However, if many sprinters have survived, he will probably opt for safety.

 

Enrico Battaglin once emerged as one of the biggest talents in Italy and showed his great potential in 2013 and 2014 as he won stages in both editions of the Giro. However, his progress has stalled significantly and he is no longer the rider he once was. This year he has shown signs of improvement though and this stage is very good for him. He will probably be up against better climbers if he joins the break but there will be time to get back and win the sprint. He can also mix it up in a reduced bunch sprint and he proved that the speed is there when he finished fifth in the flat sprint in stage 7.

 

Matteo Montaguti already got close to victory in stage 8 and he will be eager to make amends for the near-miss. The Italian is a master in hitting the right breakaway and he has all the skills to do well here. He climbs well, is a good descender and is fast in a sprint. He can both go from afar and try on the final climb.

 

Sky will be eager to bounce back after today’s disappointment and they have a very good candidate for this stage. Nicolas Roche is very strong on short climbs and can beat most in a sprint. He is not at his best level but he is not far off which he proved with his great ride in Yorkshire. He will definitely try to attack either early or in the finale.

 

We won’t rule Giacomo Nizzolo out. The Italian is climbing better than ever and is clearly in the form of his life. On paper, the climb is a bit too tough for him but last year he managed to hang onto Vincenzo Nibali at the Tre Valli Varesine. If he has the same kind of legs, he may create a surprise and then he is very likely to be the fastest in the final sprint.

 

Sacha Modolo, Matteo Trentin, Manuel Belletti and Nikias Arndt can also survive. The former three are fast enough to beat almost everybody in a sprint. The latter needs a smaller but if he is climbing like he did in Yorkshire, he could emerge as the fastest.

 

Movistar have an eye on the teams classification and this means that they will probably try to join the early break. Carlos Betancur and Jose Joaquin Rojas stand out as great stage win opportunities as they are both good climbers and fast in a flat sprint.

 

Wilier-Southeast haven’t had much luck yet but they will definitely try to win the stage with Matteo Busato who is having a bit of a breakthrough season. The Italian is very good on short climbs and is fast in a sprint which means that he can move both early and late in the stage. The same goes for the Cannondale pair of Moreno Moser and Simon Clarke who will definitely try to join the early break.

 

Pavel Kochetkov, Ruben Plaza and David Lopez are also solid winning candidates from an early break.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Sonny Colbrelli (sprint, early or late attack)

Other winner candidates: Kristian Sbaragli (sprint), Giovanni Visconti (late attack)

Outsiders: Diego Ulissi (late attack), Tim Wellens (early or late attack), Alejandro Valverde (sprint), Enrico Battaglin (sprint or early attack), Matteo Montaguti (early or late attack), Nicolas Roche (early or late attack), Giacomo Nizzolo (sprint)

Jokers: Sacha Modolo (sprint), Matteo Trentin (sprint), Luka Mezgec (sprint), Manuel Belletti (sprint), Nikias Arndt (sprint), Jose Joaquin Rojas (early attack), Matteo Busato (early or late attack), Moreno Moser (early or late attack), Simon Clarke (early or late attack)