Giacomo Nizzolo and Sacha Modolo climbed excellently to make it into a select group of climbers but the late attack meant that they never got the chance to sprint for the win. They now hope to get a second chance on stage 12 which is the easiest of the entire race but they will be up against a hungry André Greipel who is to make the hat-trick before his likely withdrawal before Friday’s big mountain stage.

 

The course

If they were left frustrated in stage 11, the sprinters will be eager to strike back in stage 12 and end their long drought that has followed since the great first week. The Giro d’Italia is famously known for its completely flat stages, either on the Po Valley or along the Adriatic coast. This year the organizers again offer such a stage as the riders will tackle the flat terrain around Venice before the sprinters are set to battle it out on the Adriatic coast in Bibione.

 

Wisely, the organizers rarely make these stages too long and at just 168km, stage 12 is a pretty short one. It will bring the riders from Noale to the coastal city of Bibione. The course is perfectly flat and runs almost entirely along wide and straight roads. Initially, the route follows the Riviera del Brenta in a southerly direction and then it enters the province of Treviso along trunk roads as they head north and west towards the coast. There will be roundabouts, kerbs, speed bumps and traffic dividers while crossing urban areas, especially in Mestre, Treviso and Portogruaro, and there will be intermediate sprints at the 94.7km and 131.1km marks.

 

The route finally reaches Bibione, where an 8km circuit shall be covered twice. The circuit features 14 bends and long straight stretches, on mostly wide and well-surfaced roads. Inside the final 3km, there are four turns in quick succession before the riders get to a mostly straight road with 1,500m to go. There’s a final turn which leads onto the home straight which is 300m long, on 7.5m wide asphalt road.

 

Bibione has hosted a stage finish five times in the Giro d'Italia history, most recently in 2000 when Victor Hugo Pena won a 42km time trial. Jan Svorada won a bunch sprint in 1994.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

In general, there is plenty of sunshine in Bibione at the moment but unfortunately there’s one day with rain on the menu. The timing is bad as it coincides with the arrival of the Giro d’Italia and a total amount of 6mm are forecasted for Thursday. There is a 50-75% risk during the entire afternoon and the maximum temperature will be 19 degrees.

 

There will only be a very light wind, first from a southeasterly direction and then from an easterly direction. This means that the riders will have a cross-tailwind in the first part and then a headwind. In the finale, it will be a cross-headwind until they get to the circuit. Here it will mainly be a tailwind in the second half but the riders will turn into a headwind with 1.5km to go. The final turn with 300m leads into a crosswind.

 

The favourites

What a frustrating experience for Giacomo Nizzolo! The Italian proved how much he has improved his climbing by making it into a select group of GC riders and climbers but he missed out on a great chance to win the stage. His team showed full commitment and confidence in their Italian sprinter by leading the chase all day and they did the majority of the work to bring the break back. However, the finale was always going to be difficult to control and as we said yesterday, a late move was very likely to make it to the finish. That’s exactly what happened as the sprinters were all short on manpower.

 

Nizzolo only had one teammate at his side, Ryder Hesjedal, and it was a bit of a surprise to see that the Canadian didn’t take a single turn on the front. However, the cameras didn’t show how the Nizzolo group made it back to the GC group and Hesjedal may have emptied himself for his teammate at this point.

 

The team probably made a tactical mistake though. Only Hesjedal and Riccardo Zoidl have the climbing legs to feature in such a finale so it was a bit of a surprise that Zoidl was used for the early chase work while big guys like Eugenio Alafaci and Marco Coledan were saved for later. If the team had saved Zoidl for the finale, they may have had an extra rider to help bring the break back.

 

However, it was a well-deserved win for Lampre-Merida. The team took the initiative to bring the dangerous group back in the early part of the stage and then played their cards to perfection in the finale. Like Nizzolo, Sacha Modolo surpassed expectations by surviving the climb and he was ready for the sprint if plan A failed. After a couple of mediocre showings, Diego Ulissi proved that he still has the legs and that he has a kick that most are unable to match on the short, steep climbs. Having regained contact with the favourites, he did an excellent finale to take a well-deserved win by attacking at a time when most were on their limit. If he had had the legs to go with him, Tim Wellens would definitely have joined the move and this speaks volumes about Ulissi’s power.

 

In the GC battle, Jungels again showed impressive strength and now only Amador is less than a minute behind him in the overall standings. He is still very likely to lose significant time to the best in the high mountains as he has never been up there with the GC riders in mountain stages in any race in the past. On the other hand, he is clearly stronger than ever and his recovery in three-week races is excellent so it will be very interesting to see what he can do.

 

Unfortunately, Domenico Pozzovivo and Jakob Fuglsang lost time due to the crash. None of them were podium contenders but they have both been riding solidly. The time loss for Fuglsang is a big loss for Nibali as the local hero can no longer use his Danish lieutenant as a big threat in the tactical battle in the mountain stages.

 

Before we get there, the GC riders have to get safely through what could very well be a tricky stage 12. It may be the easiest of the entire race but a technical finishing circuit with possible wet roads could lead to crashes and more splits. Last year we had both Richie Porte and Alberto Contador go down in these seemingly innocuous stages and as tomorrow’s circuit looks very tricky, the wet conditions can really make things treacherous. If the roads are wet, the finale will be stressful!

 

For the sprinters, it is one of their biggest goals of the entire race and they have been waiting for this stage ever since Greipel won in Foligno last Friday. The German has done nothing to hide that he will leave the race and as the next sprint opportunity comes in the middle of the third week, there is no reason to do four tough stages in the mountains. Hence, it is very likely to be his final stage and the same could be the case for Caleb Ewan. However, Giacomo Nizzolo, Sacha Modolo and Arnaud Demare all plan to reach Turin.

 

These completely flat stages in the Giro are usually very uneventful. Everybody knows that it will be a bunch sprint so very few riders want to go on the attack. Expect the first move to stick and it will probably be made up of riders from the wildcard teams. Maybe it will be time for Gazprom-Rusvelo to make it right and we also expect to see Giacomo Berlato (Nippo-Vini Fantini) make it into another break.

 

Etixx-QuickStep will do the early work but Lotto Soudal are likely to do almost all the riding on the front. Trek and Lampre-Merida worked hard in today’s stage so unless the situation gets dangerous, they will take a backseat. FDJ are the ally for Lotto Soudal and they may lend a hand but otherwise it will be left to the Belgian team to make sure that it all comes down a sprint.

 

With a headwind, it should be relatively easy for them to bring it back together and then all the drama will play out on the tricky finishing circuit. Due to the technical nature, positioning will be very important, especially if the wet roads lead to crashes. However, there is a chance to move up on the long road that leads to the final turn with 300m to go and as the road is wide, there should be room to launch the lead-out late. Furthermore, there will be a headwind so timing will be crucial.

 

The real sprint will be the big fight to be one of the first riders through the final turn as you won’t win the stage if you are not in the top 6 here. That means that a great lead-out man is crucial as are technical skills and acceleration. The finale is less suited to power sprinters as it is less about top speed.

 

This makes it a great sprint for Giacomo Nizzolo. There is no doubt that André Greipel is the fastest rider in the field which he proved in the flat sprint in stage 7. However, Nizzolo was not far off the mark and if he had not been forced to briefly stop his sprint, he would have been much closer to the German. In stage 3, he was boxed in by Porsev but when he finally found a gap, he actually managed to pass Greipel.

 

In a power sprint, Nizzolo is not fast enough to beat Greipel but in a technical finale, he is very hard to beat. In Croatia, he beat Mark Cavendish twice in such sprints and the Brit is even better suited to these sprints than Greipel. Nizzolo is excellent at positioning himself which he proved in stage 7 when he reacted quickly to jump onto Ewan’s wheel while Greipel and most other sprinters hesitated and he has great technical skills and a formidable kick.

 

His lead-out hasn’t worked well and the loss of Boy van Poppel will be dearly felt. However, he has been able to do things right alone and his great positioning makes him hugely consistent. With no great train, he won’t be the first sprinter through the final turn but he could very well be in second position. Then it takes a very fast sprinter to beat. Hence, Nizzolo is our favourite for the stage.

 

André Greipel is the obvious pick as he is the fastest rider here. However, this finale is not made for him and if the roads are wet, we doubt that he will take the risks which are needed to be in a good position in the final turn. Lotto Soudal have done an excellent job to keep him in position but they haven’t had the power to do a real lead-out. He won’t be the first sprinter through the final turn and like in the past sprints he will need some luck to find a gap and come from behind. A 300m finishing straight is very short so there won’t be much time to get back. If it’s raining, we doubt that he will win but if it’s dry he should be much closer to the front and then his speed may still be enough to come from behind again and make it a hat-trick in the Italian grand tour.

 

With lead-outs being so important, Arnaud Demare is an obvious favourite. The French sprinter is usually not good at positioning himself and his FDJ team have usually not been good enough to bring him to the front positions. However, in this race, his train has been one of the two best and they have dominated most of the sprints. They mistimed things slightly in stage 7 but otherwise they have done really well.

 

Demare likes this kind of technical sprint but it all comes down to whether he is in a good position. If FDJ can do like they have done in most of the sprints here, Demare may be the first sprinter through the final turn and then you have to be right on his wheel to beat him in this kind of sprint. He crashed in today’s stage so there is a bit of uncertainty about his form but he doesn’t seem to have sustained any major injury.

 

Sacha Modolo proved that he is in excellent form by surviving the climbs in today’s stage. Last year he won two stages due to his excellent train and even though he doesn’t have the same kind of support here as Richeze has left the team, Roberto Ferrari has still done an excellent work. In fact, the Italian is probably the fastest lead-out man here so if he doesn’t have to spend too much energy early in the lead-out, he will probably be the first rider through the final turn. Modolo is not the fastest sprinter here but if he is right on the wheel of his teammate, he could very well win this stage.

 

With Marcel Kittel out of the race, Matteo Trentin is now the Etixx-QuickStep sprinter. The Italian showed his good form today and even though he is not a pure sprinter, this is a very good stage for him. The Etixx-QuickStep train has been very strong and Lukasz Wisniowski and Fabio Sabatini should be able to give him an excellent lead-out. Sabatini and Trentin could be the first two riders through the crucial turn and then Trentin has the speed to win the stage.

 

It has been a frustrating race for Caleb Ewan who hasn’t really been close to winning a stage. In stage 7, he finally got a good lead-out when Luka Mezgec delivered him in the perfect position but he missed his usual speed. The hard stage ad probably cost too much but tomorrow he should be a lot fresher at the finish. There is little doubt that he has the speed to win so it will all come down to his positioning. If Mezgec can do what he did last Friday, Ewan is fast enough to finish it off.

 

Moreno Hofland and LottoNL-Jumbo have been doing an excellent job in the first sprints. Despite being mostly focused on the GC, the Dutch sprinter has got some solid support and he has been sprinting better than ever. In stage 7, he had a bad day and decided to give Battaglin his chance so it remains to be seen whether he is now feeling better. However, if he is sprinting like he did in the first week, he will be a podium contender.

 

Nicola Ruffoni is a pure sprinter so he should find this stage to his liking. He has been positioning himself really well in the first sprints and this means that this is a great opportunity for him. He is never afraid of taking huge risks and this will be important in this technical finale. In the past, he has shown that he has the speed to mix it up with the very best and even though he does no longer that fast, he is one of the quickest sprinters here.

 

Alexander Porsev has been one of the best sprinters when it comes to positioning. He is not fast enough to win these stages but his great work in the finales has made him hugely consistent. He doesn’t have a lead-out so he won’t be the first sprinter through the final turn and as he is not among the fastest, he won’t win the stage. However, he could very well finish in the top 5.

 

Manuel Belletti has taken over sprinting duties at Wilier from Jakub Mareczko and he will be keen to grab his chance here. He is more suited to harder finales but he is very consistent due to his good positioning. This should make him a contender for this stage.

 

Nikias Arndt hasn’t had much luck in this race as Giant-Alpecin have been more focused on the GC. However, he will get full support in tomorrow’s stage and this will give him a much better chance. Giant don’t have their best train here but Bert De Backer has huge experience in the lead-outs. With more team support, Arndt should be able to do better than he has done until now.

 

For more sprinters, keep an eye on Paolo Simion, Rick Zabel, Kristian Sbaragli, Ivan Savitskiy, Leigh Howard and Eduard Grosu.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Giacomo Nizzolo

Other winner candidates: André Greipel, Arnaud Demare

Outsiders: Sacha Modolo, Matteo Trentin, Caleb Ewan

Jokers: Moreno Hofland, Nicola Ruffoni, Alexander Porsev, Manuel Belletti, Nikias Arndt