After months of preparations, the waiting time is finally over for the many riders that have made the Giro d’Italia their first big goal of the year. For the first time since 2012, the race will kick off in an individual time trial and while it will be a day of limiting the losses for most of the GC contenders, the stage is one of the biggest targets of the season for Tom Dumoulin and Fabian Cancellara who both have set their sights on the maglia rosa.

 

The course

In their attempt to internationalize the Giro d’Italia, organizers RCS will continue the new tradition of having foreign starts every other year. After the starts in Amsterdam in 2010, in Herning in 2012 and in Belfast in 2014, the race will return to the Netherlands just six years after the latest visit as the small city of Apeldoorn has managed to attract one of the biggest sport events in the world. It marks another chapter in the Dutch history of hosting grand tour starts as the 2009 Vuelta, 2010 Tour and 2015 Tour all took off from the small Benelux country. In just 8 years, no less than five three-week races will have started from the Netherlands when the riders have rolled down the ramp in Apeldoorn.

 

At the same time, the start to the 2016 edition marks a bit of a shift as the usual team time trial has been replaced by an individual test. It is the first time that an individual time trial has started the race since the prologue in Herning and it is only the fourth time since 2006 that the opening stage has not been a team time trial after Bradley Wiggins and Taylor Phinney won the prologues in 2010 and 2012 respectively and Mark Cavendish won a sprint stage in 2013.

 

At 9.8km, the opening stage is too long to be a prologue and it will officially be the first stage of the race. It takes place entirely in the centre of Appeldoorn where it travels from the famous Omnisportcentrum to the Loolaan street a few kilometres away. Like most of the Netherlands, Apeldoorn is completely flat so the challenges will come from the technical aspects more than from the terrain.

The time trial runs entirely through the city, along wide, straight avenues, with just a few 90-degree bends. Speed bumps, roundabouts and street furniture will be found throughout the route and the split time is taken at km 4.8. The second half is slightly more technical but in general there are lots of power sections where the specialists can make the difference.

 

The final kilometres are completely flat, with two right-hand bends in between three straight stretches. The final bend leads into the 600m long home straight, on a 6.5m wide asphalt road.

 

Apeldoorn may have a famous cycling track but it doesn’t have a long history in road cycling. It last hosted the finish of a major race at the 2002 Ronde van Nederland where local rider Steven De Jongh won a bunch sprint. Last year it was Orica-GreenEDGE who won the opening team time trial to put Simon Gerrans into the maglia rosa, with the Australian team making it two stage 1 wins in a row. The latest time trial winners on the first day were Taylor Phinney in 2012, Bradley Wiggins in 2010 and Paolo Savoldelli in 2006.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

When it was announced that the race would start in the Netherlands, many climbers were nervous that the weather would make the first days very dangerous. Hence, they will be pleased to know that the cold conditions which marred the races in recent weeks, have been replaced by early summer. In fact, Friday will be sunny and the temperature will reach a maximum of an impressive 24 degrees which is unusual for this time of the year.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a southeasterly direction which will abate slightly late in the afternoon. This means that the riders will mainly have a cross-tailwind throughout the stage.

 

The favourites

It’s been a long build-up but now the time has finally arrived. Since it was announced that the Giro will start in the small Dutch city of Apeldoorn, the excitement has been growing for both riders and Dutch cycling fans and the Netherlands has been painted in pink as it welcomes the second biggest cycling race in the world. The country has an impressive ability attract the grand tours and it is remarkable that this will be the fifth start of a three-week race in the country since 2009.

 

The stages in the Netherlands have been feared for the potential crosswinds but as it was the case when the Tour started her in 2015, summer has arrived. There will be no windy dramas during the next three days and the many Dutch fans will be inspired to line up alongside the roads by excellent conditions.

 

The good weather means that we should have an honest time trial on the first day. With no risk of rain or dramatically changing wind conditions, the riders should do their TT on pretty equal terms. This sets the scene for an exciting contest in what is a very anticipated stage.

 

The stage may be short but it is a bit too long for the prologue specialists. As it is mainly made up of straight, flat roads, it is more about power than technical skills and explosiveness so this should be a stage for the real time trial specialists and the biggest engines, with little room for sprinters who can do well in technical prologues. The fast guys will still try to stay within striking distance of the maglia rosa but it will be one of the really powerful riders that will wear the pink jersey after the first 9.8km of racing.

 

For the GC riders, it will be a day of limiting the losses on a course that doesn’t do them many favours but the time gaps will probably mean nothing at the end of three weeks of hard racing. The main goal will be to get the race off to a good start from a psychological point of view and there is little doubt that Vincenzo Nibali, Alejandro Valverde and Ilnur Zakarin are looking to gain a few seconds on Mikel Landa right from the beginning. In fact, the Basque has admitted that he fears losing a bit too much time already on the first stage which will be the first big test of how much he has improved his TT skills since joining Team Sky.

 

For Tom Dumoulin and Fabian Cancellara, the stage is one of the biggest goals of the year. The Dutchman wants to win on home soil after he missed out in the Tour de France prologue in Utrecht while the Swiss is targeting the only grand tour leader’s jersey that he has never had. They will be up against a host of powerful prologue specialists who have all made this stage a huge goal and prepared specifically for the challenge.

 

The plan was actually to write this preview yesterday but now we are glad that we changed our plans. Overnight things have changed dramatically when it comes to selecting the favourites for the stage. When we went to bed yesterday, we had very little doubt that Fabian Cancellara would come out on top but now the result is a much more uncertain.

 

Cancellara has fallen ill and spent most of the night on the toilet with stomach problems. He no longer has a fever and will definitely take the start but it remains to be seen how it will impact his performance. He may also be playing mind games with the press and his rivals and no one really knows how bad Cancellara felt yesterday.

 

Despite his illness, Cancellara seemed to be in an upbeat mood and as he has more than 24 hours to recover, we still believe that he will win the TT. On paper, he should be in a class of his own in this kind of test. He may no longer be the time triallist he once was but he remains the best prologue rider in the world. Of course he would have preferred a more technical course but his dominance of the Tirreno-Adriatico time trial in recent years proves that he is very hard to beat on this kind of short power course too.

 

This year Cancellara has even been time trialling better than he has done for a number of years which is just part of his excellent start to the season. He has been flying right from the start and won his first TT in Algarve where he beat Tony Martin comfortably. However, it was his performance in the Tirreno TT that really caught the attention. He posted a much faster time than he had done in the past and simply crushed the opposition despite claiming to have felt bad throughout the entire race. Yesterday Dumoulin admitted that he would never be able to do such a time and so pointed to Cancellara as the man to beat.

 

Cancellara already beat Dumoulin in Utrecht last year and that course suited the Dutchman better. Furthermore, the Swiss was just coming back from injury and illness and didn’t have the same excellent foundation that he has this year. He may not have raced since the classics but we can expect him to be at a very high level as he knows how to prepare for a grand tour and this stage is a big goal of his. Of course the illness raises several doubts but we believe Cancellara to be so superior that he will be able to win here even if he is not at 100%.

 

Nonetheless, the issue could tip the balance in favour of Tom Dumoulin. The Dutchman can do every kind of time trial: prologues, long time trials, flat TTs and hilly time trials. However, he prefers longer, hillier courses and this stage is definitely not made for him. On the other hand, he is still such a great specialist that he was taken dominant wins in similar stages in the past and it is worth remembering that he was fourth in last year’s Utrecht TT at the Tour de France, just seconds behind Rohan Dennis, Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara.

 

Dumoulin is mainly focusing on the time trials here and even though Nikias Arndt has told radsport-news that the Dutchman is not telling the truth when he claims not to focus on the GC, it is definitely true that his build-up has been more geared towards time trialling. He has not been training at altitude like he did for the Vuelta last year and he should be ready for this kind of effort.

 

However, there are some concerns regarding his time trialling. While he has improved his climbing, he has not been time trialling well in 2016. In fact he has not won a single TT yet. Most recently, he was beaten by Ion Izagirre in the Tour de Romandie prologue and by Thibaut Pinot in the long time trial and those hilly routes suited him down to the ground. He failed to win the Paris-Nice prologue which was pretty similar to this one, and it is hard not to be left with the impression that he is not the dominant force he once was.

 

That doesn’t mean that he can’t win the stage but he probably needs Cancellara to be at less than 100%. With his recent illness, that is definitely a very realistic scenario and then Dumoulin will be first in line to take over from the Swiss.

 

Dumoulin won’t be the only rider that the local fans will be cheering for. Jos Van Emden was a great time triallist when he turned professional but for some reason his progress stalled and he disappeared into anonymity. It all changed in 2015 when he finished fifth behind Dennis, Martin, Cancellara and Dumoulin IN the opening Tour time trial and when he won the star-studded Eneco Tour TT. Those two time trials are comparable to this one and in general he seems to excel over the shorter, flat distances.

 

This year van Emden was second behind Boasson Hagen in the flat TT in Qatar while he made the wrong gamble by starting early in the Paris-Nice prologue where the late starters had a big advantage. This stage is a big goal for him and on paper he has the skills to come away with the win. However, he has told Dutch media that he hasn’t felt good recently and he is not too optimistic. On the other hand, he admits that his numbers are good and if that’s true he could take an upset win.

 

Katusha are here to go for GC with Ilnur Zakarin but they have another goal on the first day. Anton Vorobyev is a former U23 world champion and he is one of the favourites for a stage that is a big goal for him. He has had many health issues in the early part of his career which has prevented him from showing the full extent of his potential but he has shown flashes of what he can. Last year he won the 3 Days of West-Flanders prologue which is similar to this stage, and he was in the top 10 at the Worlds in 2014.

 

Most importantly, Vorobyev has timed his form excellently. He was unstoppable in Sarthe where he beat great riders like Jerome Coppel and Matthias Brändle in a short, technical time trial. One day later he rode to a storming solo win in the queen stage and he was also on the attack in the final stage. He prefers longer time trials but he has done well in short TTs in the past. This one is less technical than the one in Sarthe so he should be even better here.

 

Stefan Küng is regarded as the next Fabian Cancellara which is no coincidence. The two Swiss riders share many of the same characteristics, most notably their TT skills. Küng confirmed his potential in his neo-pro season where he was second behind Bradley Wiggins in the De Panne TT and rode to impressive solo wins in a stage in Romandie and at the Volta Limburg Classic. However, he crashed badly in the Giro and as he was set back by mononucleosis during the off-season, his progress has been slowed.

 

Küng is now back on track and he has been in remarkable good condition since his comeback. He hasn’t raced for a while but he should be even better when he rolls down the ramp in Apeldoorn. If he can do what he did in De Panne 12 months ago, he will be very strong here.

 

The stage is a big goal for Bob Jungels who proved his great condition with his third place in the long time trial in Romandie. The Luxembourger is a talented time triallist who can do well in both short and long tests. However, he is not as powerful as the bigger guys and he has generally had some troubles on the real power courses. He would have preferred the route to be hillier and more technical but his good condition should still bring him far.

 

Matthias Brändle has been targeting this time trial for a long time. Last year the Austrian developed into one of the best riders in the world for short, flat time trials and he won the Tour of Belgium prologue and was in the top 10 in Utrecht. Unfortunately, he has not been time trialling well in 2016 and he no longer seems to be at the same level. He showed signs of progress in Sarthe but we are still looking for confirmation that he can rediscover the legs that made him so strong last year.

 

Van Emden is not the only LottoNL-Jumbo card. Martijn Keizer has developed into an excellent prologue rider and he is targeting a top 5 here. In fact he has been in the top 10 in five of the prologues that he has done in 2015 and 2016 and he has been in the top 5 in four of them, with two second places being the highlights. This year he was second in West-Flanders and 10th in Romandie and it is a bit of mystery that he hasn’t attracted more attention for a stage that should suit him well.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE are here with Michael Hepburn but you never know what you will get from the inconsistent Australia. On his best days, he is really suited to this kind of effort as he has proved by winning the Qatar TT and finishing in the top 10 in the final Tirreno stage. However, he very often misses out completely. He has just returned to Europe as he is targeting the Olympics with the Australian team pursuit squad and his track training should have prepared him well for this stage.

 

BMC have a strong joker in Manuel Quinziato. The Italian suddenly rediscovered his best time trial legs in 2014 and he was one of the best in the world in short, flat TTs that year. Last year he did much worse but then he suddenly seemed to be back on track when he finished third in the Qatar TT. That made him a favourite for the Tirreno TT but he performed very poorly there. We don’t know what version of Quinziato we’ll get but if it’s the good one, he will be very strong.

 

Ramunas Navardauskas is here to work for Uran but he will take his chance in the prologue. He looked very strong in Romandie and his form seems to be very good. He is not a real TT specialist but when the courses are flat and not too technical, he can do well. That makes him a contender for this TT.

 

We are curious to see what Marcel Kittel can do. The big German will go all out as he is aiming for the maglia rosa in stages 2 and 3. At the start of his career, he was known as a TT specialist and even though his focus on sprinting has changed his body, he can still do very good short, flat time trials. A few years ago he was in the top 10 in a similar time trial in Dubai and in Romandie he seemed to stronger than he has ever been. The TT is a bit too long to suit him really well but he is definitely capable of delivering a surprise.

 

Only one GC ride deserves a mention. Alexandre Geniez was once known as a pure climber but now he has become a bit of a prologue specialist. Last year he was second in the Tour de l’Ain prologue and this year he surprised everybody by riding to sixth on the flat power course at Tirreno-Adriatico. It’s a pretty similar effort to the one in Apeldoorn and he has prepared specifically for this race where he is aiming for the overall top 10. He has proved to be in very good condition and FDJ just keep surprising in the time trials. Tomorrow Geniez could be the man to do so.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Fabian Cancellara

Other winner candidates: Tom Dumoulin, Jos van Emden

Outsiders: Anton Vorobyev, Stefan Küng, Bob Jungels, Matthias Brändle

Jokers: Martijn Keizer, Michael Hepburn, Manuel Quinziato, Ramunas Navardauskas, Marcel Kittel, Alexandre Geniez