Marcel Kittel decided to give priority to the stage win and allowed Tom Dumoulin to spend another day in the maglia rosa. However, after today’s dominant showing in Nijmegen, it just seems to be a postponement of what has always looked to be inevitable: that Kittel will end the Dutch adventure with the maglia rosa after another excellent sprint win in Arnhem on the third day.

 

The course

The sprinters always look forward to every Dutch grand tour start as the flat terrain in the Netherlands is an invitation to the fast finishers. This is reflected in the start list for this year’s Giro d’Italia as many sprinters have been inspired by the unusually many sprint opportunities in the first week. After what was a sprint stage on the second day, it will again only be the wind that can prevent a bunch kick on the third day.

 

This stage closely resembles the previous one as it again covers 190km between Nijmegen and Arnhem, albeit in the opposite direction. While the previous stage was held in the area west of the city, stage 3 will bring them into the terrain on the eastern outskirts. However, that doesn’t change the nature of the stage: the route runs flat along the plains surrounding the start and finish cities, coming across minor climbs and mild descents, villages, roundabouts and speed bumps. Over the first 25km, the route winds its way on narrow roads twisting and turning along the banks of River Rhine.

 

In the city of Borculo after 86.4km of racing, the riders will turn around and head back towards Arnhem. The route tackles the two intermediate sprints at the 97.4km and 128.5km marks respectively and the Posbank categorised climb (2.2km, 2.9%, max. 12% near the top) with 53.1km to go. Then a short and technical descent along the roads of the Hoge Weluve National Park leads into the final Arnhem circuit.

 

The final 14km circuit, to be covered twice, runs along wide, straight urban avenues, dotted with roundabouts. The route passes over the Nederrijn River twice, and then takes a short tunnel with approximately 6km remaining to the finish. The circuit includes just six turns and slightly rolling terrain in the first half while the second half is almost completely flat. The home straight is 500m long, on a 7.5m wide asphalt road. The final kilometres are slightly curved, but with no real bends, meaning that it is a very straightforward finale.

 

Arnhem has not hosted the finish of a major bike race for more than a decade but it has been the starting point of the Arnhem – Veenendal Classic.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The climbers ticked a very important box as they got safely through the first Dutch road stage which has been feared for months but they will have to be a bit more attentive tomorrow. While it will be another sunny day with a maximum temperature of 23 degrees, Sunday will be a bit windier as moderately strong wind will be blowing from an easterly direction. This means that it will mainly be a headwind and a cross-headwind until the feed zone. Then it will be a tailwind until they will turn into a cross-tailwind with 77km to go. On the circuit, it will mainly be a crosswind, with a cross-headwind for most of the final 2500m until the riders gradually turn into a cross-tailwind in the final 600m.

 

The favourites

Ever since he showed the full extent of his potential by crushing the opposition and taking four stage wins at the 2011 Tour de Pologne, it has been pretty evident that Marcel Kittel is the fastest rider in the world. The German has taken numerous memorable wins in the past but only rarely has he shown the superiority that he did today. The Giro d’Italia may have gathered one of the best sprinting field for years but after today’s performance, it looks like the sprint stages could very well be relatively dull affairs.

 

Of course Kittel greatly benefited from the fact that even though many teams have a good sprinter, none of the best trains are here. André Greipel doesn’t have his usual teammates at his side, Elia Viviani is completely on his own and Sacha Modolo no longer has Maximilano Richeze and so can only count on Roberto Ferrari. Only Trek and IAM have some really powerful trains but they completely missed out and that made it relatively easy for Etixx-QuickStep in the finale.

 

It is telling that FDJ were able to do so well in the finale. The Frenchmen have had a hard time competing with the best in the bunch sprints but today they were suddenly among the best. Murilo Fischer launched the train really well and youngster Marc Sarreau slotted really well into the third last position. With Mickael Delage delivering his usual good lead-out, things are suddenly looking pretty good for Arnaud Demare who has so often missed out due to his poor positioning.

 

In the end, however, they were unable to match Matteo Trentin and Fabio Sabatini and even though the two Italians didn’t have the power to hold off the Frenchmen, they brought Kittel into the perfect position. When he was on Demare’s wheel, the outcome was never in doubt and it seems that things can only change if Etixx-QuickStep really fail in the lead-out which looks unlikely.

 

Kittel kept his word and focused on the stage win, allowing Dumoulin to spend another day in pink. Tomorrow it is obviously a big goal to take the maglia rosa but it will all come naturally if he can take another stage victory. However, there was a very interesting indication of his long-term ambition too. We have actually been pretty convinced that he would leave the race after the Bibione stage to focus on the Tour but he has always been adamant that he plans to make it to Turin. Today he asked Matteo Trentin to do the intermediate sprints and that can only have one purpose: to take away points from his rivals for the red jersey. This is a clear hint that Kittel is actually planning to make it to ride into Turin in red and that’s a scary sign for the likes of Giacomo Nizzolo, Elia Viviani and Sacha Modolo.

 

For now, however, it is all about the pink jersey that he is likely to take in the final stage of the Dutch adventure. Stage 3 is almost an identical copy of stage 2 and the outcome is likely to be pretty similar. However, there will be more nervousness and stress in the peloton as it will be windier. Yesterday it looked like it would actually be pretty windy but now it seems that it won’t be that bad. However, that can’t change the fact that there is a better chance to do some damage, especially because of the wind direction. This time there will be a cross-tailwind in the final part before the circuit and this is the perfect conditions to try to split things. It would be a very bad idea for Ryder Hesjedal to spend the entire stage at the back of the field like he did today!

 

However, attacks in the crosswinds have the biggest effect if they are unexpected and we doubt that anyone will be caught off-guard. That doesn’t mean that things can split though. The nervousness will cause more crashes and this could be what ultimately does some damage. Just recall that the main splits in the memorable second stage of the 2015 Tour de France were a consequence of crashes more than it was due to the wind.

 

This means that tomorrow’s  stage will be more nervous and we don’t expect the calmness that marked today’s stage. This means that luck will play a bigger role and there is no guarantee that all sprinters will be there in the end. However, we should still get a sprint finish as the combination of nervousness and motivated sprint teams mean that there will be no chance for a breakaway.

 

Like today we expect the break to go straight from the gun and we are pretty sure that both Maarten Tjallingii and Omar Fraile will again be there. The Dutchman will almost pass his house during the stage and will be keen to wave goodbye to his home public before he ends his career. That forces Frail to join the move if he wants to defend the green jersey. They will probably be joined by some of the pro continental riders.

 

From there, Giant-Alpecin and Etixx-QuickStep will control things and like today we can expect Tom Stamsnijder and Cheng Ji to work with one of the Etixx riders. Today it was Carlos Verona riding on the front and tomorrow it could very well be David de la Cruz or Pieter Serry. With the intermediate sprints and the KOM sprint coming early, they will be contested by the escapees but like today, the likes of Modolo, Viviani and Nizzolo will again sprint for the minor points even though Nizzolo may be using a bit less energy as it cost him too much for today’s finale.

 

In the end, it will be a sprint and it is very hard not to regard Marcel Kittel as the top favourite. No one can question whether he is the fastest rider in the bunch and his lead-out train is also one of the best. Like today, the finishing circuit is tailor-made for his characteristics as it is a very long finishing straight on a wide road where it will be easy to move up. That means that he is less likely to be boxed in and even if Trentin and Sabatini fail to position him perfectly, there should be room for him to do his sprint. With the speed, he showed in today’s stage, he will be able to win even if he starts very far back, just like he did in Dublin two years ago. For Kittel not to win this stage, he has to be boxed in which is unlikely in this kind of finish and with this kind of team support. Of course he may miss out due crashes in a very nervous stage but if he is there in the end, Kittel will be almost impossible to beat.

 

It will take a very strong team to beat Kittel and that means that only teams with a strong lead-out have a real chance. Giacomo Nizzolo has an excellent train and even though Fabian Cancellara’s illness is felt, the likes of Marco Coledan, Eugenio Alafaci and Boy van Poppel form a great train. Today Nizzolo was impressive in the intermediate sprints which just confirms that he is sprinting better than ever, just like he did when he beat Mark Cavendish in Croatia. In the finale, he was way too far back he showed his great speed by passing lots of riders to finish the stage in 10th.

 

Furthermore, the intermediate sprints come very far from the finish and so Nizzolo will be fresher in the end. He is also likely to save a bit more energy in the battle for points as he has learned from today’s mistake. If Trek can nail the lead-out, Nizzolo probably has the best chance to beat Kittel even though it’s not really a finish for him.

 

Yesterday we didn’t have much confidence in Arnaud Demare due to his poor positioning skills. However, the FDJ train was really great today and this field they can compete with the best. This should allow Demare to be a lot more consistent than he usually is and for once he can actually contend for the points jersey too. It has never been a secret that he is one of the fastest riders in the field and with a good lead-out at his side, he is obviously one of the favourites.

 

Elia Viviani has proved that he has the speed to beat Kittel if the German makes just a small mistake. That’s how he defeated the German in De Panne and of course it’s possible to do so again. However, Viviani doesn’t have any powerful rider to support him as most of the riders in the Sky team are climbers and none of them have any lead-out experience. That means that Viviani will have to fight for position alone and that always costs a lot of energy and he is not very good at it either. However, he is one of the fastest here so he is one of the select few who can actually win the stage.

 

It was always going to be all-or-nothing for Jakub Mareczko. The Italian youngster is extremely fast as he has proved by beating Viviani, Guardini and Greipel this year. However, he is very poor at positioning himself and so he was nowhere to be seen in the finale. Things didn't get any easier as he lost Filippo Pozzato and Liam Bertazzo due to crashes and punctures. On paper, Pozzato, Bertazzo and Manuel Belletti form a strong train though and there is little doubt that Mareczko has the speed to win a stage here. Tomorrow it will again be all-or-nothing for the Italian talent.

 

Caleb Ewan did a very bad sprint in today’s stage. He was actually in a pretty good position but he simply missed the speed. It is a bit of a surprise as the youngster has proved that he is one of the very fastest and he showed good condition in Yorkshire even though he made mistakes in the sprints there. This stage doesn’t really suit him very well either as it’s a bit too much about power. On the other hand, he is usually pretty inconsistent and if his legs come good for stage 3, he should be one of the fastest.

 

André Greipel and Lotto Soudal were in a good position in today’s stage but the German admitted that he ran out of legs. He is still not at his best after his rib injury and even though he is getting better, he doesn’t seem to have the power to beat Kittel. As he doesn’t have a good train either and doesn’t like to fight for position on his own, it will be hard for him to benefit from his impressive speed.

 

Today’s stage was tailor-made for Matteo Pelucchi who has so often proved that he is one of the fastest in the pure bunch sprints. On paper, IAM have one of the best trains here but as it has been the case all year, they completely messed up the lead-out. Things are clearly not working well for the Swiss team but if they can finally get things right, Pelucchi has the speed to challenge Kittel.

 

Roberto Ferrari again proved that he is a great lead-out man as he managed to bring Sacha Modolo into a good position for the sprint. The Italian did well to finish third and again showed that he is sprinting better than he has done in the past. However, he is not a rider for these really fast finishers and even though Ferrari’s assistance means that he could very well be one of the most consistent riders here, it is hard to imagine that he will win such a flat stage.

 

Finally, we will again point to Nicola Ruffoni who showed so much talent in 2014 when he nearly beat Cavendish and Kittel at the Tour of Britain. After a poor 2015 season, he is finally back on track and most importantly he has shown both today and in Croatia that his positioning is getting a lot better. He is not afraid to go up against the biggest names in the fight for the best wheels and he loves this kind of pure sprint that is all about speed.

 

For more sprinters, keep an eye on Alexander Porsev, Nikias Arndt, Moreno Hofland, Eduard Grosu, Ivan Savitskiy, Kristian Sbaragli and Rick Zabel. They should all be up there but they don’t have the speed to win this kind of pure sprint.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: Giacomo Nizzolo, Arnaud Demare

Outsiders: Elia Viviani, Jakub Mareczko, Caleb Ewan, André Greipel

Jokers: Matteo Pelucchi, Sacha Modolo, Nicola Ruffoni