Almost all the GC riders survived the Dutch stages and will be pleased to be back in Italy where hillier and more favourable terrain awaits right from the beginning. The Dutch sprint festival is definitely over and even though some of the sprinters hope to hang on a deceptively hard stage in the deep south of Italy, steep climbs, narrow roads and lumpy terrain mean that the first challenge in Italy could turn out to be harder than most expect, making it a perfect opportunity for the classics riders to go for glory.

 

The course

As it was the case when the race started in Belfast, the UCI have granted the Giro peloton an extra rest day to allow the entire circus to travel from Northern Europe to Italy. Like two years ago, the organizers have used the opportunity to the extra day off to get to the southernmost of region of the Italian mainland, meaning that the race will travel from south through the medium mountains in central Italy to a big finale in the north where all the big mountains are located.

 

Due to the Italian geography, the Giro d’Italia organizers have the chance to include hilly stages at almost any point of the race and this means that the riders usually head into the hills pretty early in the race. This will again be the case in 2016 when the riders will tackle the first real climbs already on the fourth stage. A lumpy second half will allow the riders to get their legs back into a climbing rhythm on day with no real dangers for the GC riders as the strong sprinters and classics riders will have their eyes on a reduced bunch sprint.

 

The fourth stage will bring the riders over 200km from Catanzaro to Praia de Mare. The stage is wavy, but the first 120km are relatively straightforward. The route winds its way along wide fast-flow roads, which feature a few tunnels. After a small uncategorized climb inside the first 10km, the riders will reach the flat coastal road after 35.3km of racing where the first intermediate sprint is located. They will follow the coast for the rest of the first half.

 

Past Cetraro Marina, the course will make several small deviations from the coastal route to tackle a few climbs in the hilly interior. First it is the category 3 Bonifati climb (6.55km, 5.8%, max. 9%) which is a regular climb that is steepest on the lower slopes. Then it dives into the ss. 18 trunk road and then leaves it again to tackle the second category 3 climb of the day in San Pietro (5.3km, 6.8%, max. 11%) which has a very steep middle section where the gradient barely drops below 9%.

 

The top comes with 49.6km and the descent leads back to an easier section on the coastal road. The route becomes harder after the intermediate sprint in Scalea with 24.6km to go, with many climbs and descents, twists and turns that lead into the final 10km.

 

The final kilometres are rather bumpy as the route makes a small loop on the northern outskirts of the finishing city. With 10km remaining to the finish, it takes in the very steep Via del Fortino climb (1.7km, 7.7%, with ramps topping out at 18% both at the bottom and the top), and then drops into Praia on wide and curving roads that pose no real challenge. Beware of two tunnels in the first part of the descent which is the least steep part. The final 3.5km are almost completely flat and the home straight is 2,500m long, on a 7.5m wide asphalt road, curving just slightly, 40m before the finish.

 

Praia de Mare has not hosted the finish of a Giro d’Italia stage before.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders had probably expected to travel from cold and windy Holland to sun in the deep south of Italy but due to the great weather in the Netherlands, they will bare experience any change at all. Tuesday is forecasted to be sunny with a maximum temperature of 26 degrees and there will be no rain. This makes it completely different from the scenario two years ago when the riders raced in treacherous conditions on a very slippery circuit in Bari after they had returned to Italy from Ireland.

 

There will be a light wind from a westerly direction which means that the riders will first have a headwind and then a crosswind almost all day. There will be a tailwind whenever they leave the coast to go up a climb, and a headwind on the descents. In the finale, there will be a tailwind on the via Fortino climb and then a crosswind for almost the entire final part of the stage.

 

The favourites

After the Dutch adventure, it seems that the sprint stages will be a relatively dull affair at this year’s Giro d’Italia. Marcel Kittel again underlined his superiority and Etixx-QuickStep proved that they have one of the two best trains in the race. That’s a very scary combination for their rivals and even though things will be much more complicated in Italy where the finales are more technical with narrower roads and very often slightly uphill finishing straights, it seems that Kittel will be very hard to beat. In fact, it seems that they are all content with racing for second as it seems that the only goal is to get Kittel’s wheel in the finale. Everybody knows that it’s almost impossible to follow the German when he makes his kick and so the only real chance to beat the German is to try to challenge his lead-out and make sure that he is out of position for the sprint.

 

Kittel is still sending mixed signals about his desire to complete the race but the statements from Patrick Lefevere and the German sprinter himself clearly indicate that the plan is for him to leave Italy around the midpoint of the race. That was always the most likely option but it is still a bit of a mystery why Matteo Trentin is contesting the intermediate sprints. Of course it will give him more time in the red jersey and well-deserved attention but it will also be much more difficult for him to abandon and some may regard it as disrespect to the race if he heads to altitude training while wearing one of the most coveted jerseys of the race.

 

For now, Kittel is in the maglia rosa but it will be very hard for him to get more than one day in pink. The first stage in Italy may look innocuous on paper, but it is probably a lot harder than many expect. The two main climbs come pretty early but San Pietro has a pretty steep middle section and if the peloton goes full gas here, there is very little chance that a rider like Marcel Kittel will survive. From there, the riders will face numerous small climb on twisting roads that will make it very nervous and stressful and then the riders will face the tough Via del Fortino climb close to the finish. It may not be very long but as it comes at the end of what is likely to have been a very fast final, it will be hard for the sprinters to make it to the top with the best.

 

The tactical situation is pretty interesting: do Etixx-QuickStep believe that they can defend the maglia rosa? If not, who’s going to chase behind the early break? That kind of uncertainty will give attackers some ideas so we expect a fast start to the stage. Unlike in the first road stages, we expect it to take time for the early break to be established and it could be a pretty strong one.

 

When the escape has gone clear, we expect Etixx-QuickStep to control things. After all, they are mainly here for stage wins and have no real GC ambitions. They have to try to defend the jersey but it is not immediately clear who’s going to lend them a hand. Bardiani may eye the stage with Sonny Colbrelli and if some of the sprinters believe in their chances, teams like Trek, Lampre-Merida and Dimension Data could come to the fore too.

 

The really interesting point will be the categorized climbs. The first ascent is not very hard so we don’t expect any team to take the initiative here. It’s the San Pietro climb that will be the challenge and this is where a team like Bardiani may try to make things hard. However, what is more likely is that some of the GC teams will come to the fore. Very often the major teams play with their muscles in these early stages for no apparent reason. To ride on the front is the best way to stay safe – just recall how Tinkoff almost made it impossible for anyone to escape in the first half of last year’s race. Alejandro Valverde may also eye a potential stage win so we expect Movistar, Tinkoff, Sky or Astana to go pretty fast on the climb. As there will also be a big fight for position, we expect the stage to be selective and there will be very little room for recovery in the stressful finale. Hence, we expect the stage to be too tough for Kittel and most of the sprinters.

 

Via del Fortino is a perfect opportunity for a late attack and we expect some of the classics riders to give it a try. Tim Wellens has stayed quiet so far but he simply can’t hold himself back. This is his first chance to test himself and we will be surprised if he doesn’t try something in the finale. Puncheurs like Moreno Moser and Simon Clarke, Diego Ulissi, Bob Jungels and Gianluca Brambilla are all great picks for late attacks but it will be hard to stay away. The final part of the stage isn’t really technical and apart from a short section with numerous turns, it definitely favours the peloton. On the other hand, there  won’t be much organization in what could have been a selective stage and if the fast finishers have no teammates left, it is not completely impossible that a small group can make it to the finish.

 

In the end, however, the most likely scenario is a reduced bunch sprint and we expect it to be a relatively small group. This makes it a great stage for Sonny Colbrelli. The Bardiani rider dominated the Italian one-day scene two years ago but several health issues marred his 2015 season and so he flew under the radar for 2016. He has silenced all his critics though and this year he has been better than ever before.

 

First of all, Colbrelli has been climbing much better than usual. He has stayed with some very good climbers in the hardest Italian one-day races and he has had a breakthrough in the big classics too. He was brutally strong at the Volta Limburg Classic where it was only a hopeless tactical situation that prevented him from winning the race. He was riding very well in Brabantse Pijl but it was the third place in the Amstel Gold Race that really brought him into the spotlight for a wider audience. He won the sprint behind the two late attackers, beating no less of a figure than Bryan Coquard, and this shows just how fast he is at the end of the hard races. He has won numerous reduced bunch sprints in the Italian classics and he can best most at the end of a tough day. If the really fast guys can survive the finale, he will come up short but as we expect it to be too tough for guys like Kittel, Nizzolo, Viviani, Modolo, Ewan and Demare, Colbrelli is our favourite to win the stage.

 

It may be too hard for Kittel but that doesn’t mean that Etixx-QuickStep can’t win the stage. This is the kind of route that Matteo Trentin really likes. In both the Tour de Suisse and the Tour de France, the Italian has won reduced bunch sprints and this makes this stage a perfect fit for him. This year he was riding better than ever before in the classics and so he should be able to survive the climbs here.

 

The big question mark is of course what kind of form he has. He had a big break after the classics and even though he has been doing well in the lead-outs, his climbing condition is an unknown. On paper, he should be able to survive though and in theory he should be faster than Colbrelli and even have better team support. The question is how much he will have left at the end of this hard stage.

 

When it comes to the sprinters, we have most confidence in Giacomo Nizzolo. In the past, the Italian has had a hard time in stages like this one but he has improved his climbing massively. We were deeply impressed when he was the only rider who could hang onto Vincenzo Nibali at last year’s Tre Valli Varesine and this year he was a protagonist in most of the cobbled classics where he rode extremely aggressive.

 

His performances in Croatia indicate that he is in the form of his life and he is sprinting better than ever. In Croatia, he beat Mark Cavendish twice and yesterday he easily came around André Greipel after having been boxed in during the sprint. If Nizzolo is there, we believe that only Kittel will be able to beat him and so the Italian could finally break the curse that has seen him finish second so many times in this race.

 

Giant-Alpecin have already had a lot of success in this race but it is not all about Tom Dumoulin. Nikias Arndt won’t win any of the big bunch sprints but the German is in the form of his life. Those who watched the Tour de Yorkshire, must have been deeply impressed by the way he tackled the queen stage and he even dropped classics riders like Lars Petter Nordhaug, Ben Hermans and Gianni Moscon on the penultimate climb. He didn’t miss much to stay with the leading group and as he also finished third in both bunch sprints, his speed is really good at the moment. With Tom Dumoulin, Georg Preidler and Tobias Ludvigsson at his side, he will be better supported than most so the German could very well open his grand tour account here.

 

Last year Kristian Sbaragli won a reduced bunch sprint at the Vuelta a Espana. Back then, he survived a very hard climb in the finale and this stage seems to be easier. That makes it a good one for the Italian who has proved his good form in the first two bunch sprints. Last year he beat John Degenkolb in the sprint and this shows that he is fast at the end of a hard race. He hasn’t had much success yet in 2016 but he hasn’t had many personal opportunities so far. This race is his big goal and he will be ready to strike.

 

Arnaud Demare is one of sprinters with the best climbing skills. After all, he is a contender in the cobbled classics and this means that he can go well on short, steep climbs. He has been on fire in the first part of the race and his form seems to be very good. Unfortunately, he is very inconsistent and he doesn’t seem to recover very well in stage races. If he is there in the end, he will benefit from the smaller field as he positions himself poorly, and he is very likely to be the fastest.

 

If the race becomes really hard, Alejandro Valverde will try in the sprint. We doubt that the stage is any kind of goal for the Spaniard but if he can try to go for some bonus seconds without taking too much risk, he will. In the past, the Spaniard has been able to win reduced bunch sprints and even though he is not as fast as he once was, he still one a real sprint at last year’s Volta a Catalunya. With the likes of Giovanni Visconti and Jose Joaquin Rojas for the lead-out, he will be better supported than most and no one has any reason to doubt that he is in great condition.

 

We won’t rule Marcel Kittel out completely. The German is climbing better than ever. In Romandie and De Panne, he survived some very tough climbs. However, he is a very big guy and the final climb has some very steep gradients. On paper, it should be too tough for him but if he can hang on, he will of course be the overwhelming favouite in a power sprint that suits him down to the ground.

 

Sacha Modolo also likes the harder sprints and he has been there at the end of some hard Giro stages in the past. He may have won two stages last year but that was more due to his good lead-out than his own speed. This year he has been sprinting excellently and he has just won two stages in the Tour of Turkey. We think that the stage will be too tough for him but if he climbs at his best level, he can win the first battle in Italy.

 

Katusha have done really well in the bunch sprints with Alexander Porsev but this stage will be too hard for the Russian. Instead, Alexey Tsatevich will be ready to take over. He climbed extremely well in Catalunya where he even won the hard Montjuic stage on the final day. We have no doubt that he will be there in the end but we doubt that he will be fast enough to win.

 

A few years ago, Enrico Battaglin would have been an obvious pick for this stage. However, the Italian is no longer the rider he once was and he has been riding poorly ever since he won his second Giro stage two years ago. However, he should be able to survive the climbs here and he has shown small signs of improvement. Unfortunately, he is probably not fast enough to win.

 

The stage is likely to be too tough for Caleb Ewan but Luka Mezgec will be ready to take over for Orica-GreenEDGE. A few years ago, the Slovenian was one of the best riders for reduced bunch sprints, dominating the sprints in Catalonia. However, he hasn’t really sprinted for himself this year where it has all been about lead-outs and last year he didn’t sprint well either. On paper, he should be one of the fastest though.

 

IAM have had a bad start to the race but they hope to strike back tomorrow. In the past, we would never have mentioned Leigh Howard as a contender for such a hard stage but the Australian has been revived since he joined the Swiss team. This year he has been climbing surprisingly well and he has sprinting very well too. He won the Clasica Almeria earlier this year and in the prologue he showed that the form is good. He is definitely a joker for this stage.

 

Southeast will be going for Manuel Belletti in this stage. The Italian likes these hard stages where he can do well in a reduced bunch sprint. In the Tour of Turkey, he showed that his form is good after a bad start and he will be keen to take his chance in this stage as he is set to work for Jakub Mareczko in the flat stages.

 

Finally, we will point to Caleb Ewan. He may be known as a pure sprinter but he actually climbs really well. After all, he was fourth at the U23 Worlds in Florence and he won a very hard stage in the Herald Sun Tour in February where he stayed with Chris Froome and Peter Kennaugh on a late climb. He climbed well in Yorkshire too so he may be able to surprise here.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Sonny Colbrelli

Other winner candidates: Matteo Trentin, Giacomo Nizzolo

Outsiders: Nikias Arndt, Kristian Sbaragli, Arnaud Demare, Alejandro Valverde, Marcel Kittel

Jokers: Sacha Modolo, Alexey Tsatevich, Enrico Battaglin, Luka Mezgec, Leigh Howard, Manuel Belletti, Caleb Ewan

Jokers for late attack: Tim Wellens, Moreno Moser, Simon Clarke, Diego Ulissi, Bob Jungels, Gianluca Brambilla