Stage 4 proved the general rule that lumpy stages are generally much harder than they look on paper and it was Diego Ulissi who benefited from the brutal course to take the fifth stage win in his short career. The sprinters were left disappointed on a day when they had certain hopes at the start and they now hope to bounce back in the very long sixth stage which could allow them to battle it out on the uphill finishing straight in Benevento.

 

The course

Unlike the Tour de France and the Vuelta a Espana, the Giro d’Italia often has few stages of classics distance. One of those comes on the fifth day when the riders will continue their northerly journey by travelling over 233km through lumpy terrain that has very few flat roads. However, the stage has no big climbs either and even though it is definitely no easy day, many sprinters will have their eyes firmly fixed on this stage. The first major climbs will arrive only 24 hours later and so stage 5 will offer them a final chance before they will have to spend a day in survival mode.

 

The 233km will bring the rides from Praia a Mara to Benevento as the riders will continue their northerly journey from the southernmost point of Italy. This very long stage winds its way mostly on fast-flow roads. The first part runs entirely uphill (with both easy and steeper gradients) as the riders leave the coast immediately and head into the undulating interior and leads to the top of the category 3 Fortino climb (3.5km, 5.0%, max. 8%) whose top comes at the 35km mark. From there, there are constant undulations up to 53km remaining to the finish as the riders continue in a northerly direction, with the intermediate sprints coming at the 85.1km and 118km marks, the latter at the top of a tough climb. 

 

The final part leading into Benevento runs slightly downhill, until it reaches the city for the final kilometres, entirely within the city. The riders will hit the 6.5km finishing circuit with 7.6km to go and cross the line 1.1km later. The first part rolls on wide and straight avenues, climbing at first at a gradient of 2.9%, and then descending. The second part runs on narrower and curvier inner streets, with a sharp turn 1,200 m from the finish leading onto a pave. The home stretch is 1,200 m long and slightly uphill at a gradient of 3.4%, on 7-m wide porphyry-paved road.

 

Benevento hosts a stage finish for the 7th time. The first was in 1929 with a triumph of Girardengo, the last in 2009 when Michele Scarponi got the victory from a breakaway. In 2002, Robbie McEwen won a bunch sprint here while Endrio Leoni was the fastest in a sprint at the 2001 Tirreno-Adriatico.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The Giro d’Italia is the grand tour that is most often hit by bad weather and after the sunny start to the race, things are now set to change. The riders may get their first taste of rain on stage 6 as Wednesday will be cloudy with a maximum temperature of 25 degrees and total amount of precipitation of 3mm at the finish.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a southwesterly direction which means that the riders will have a cross-tailwind almost all day. On the circuit, it will be a crosswind for most of the time. At the flamme rouge, the riders will turn from a cross-headwind into a cross-tailwind.

 

The favourites

As we wrote yesterday, lumpy stages in the southern part of Italy are generally much harder than they look on paper and we had expected stage 4 to be very selective. However, we would never have imagined that such a small group would survive and when even GC riders like Ryder Hesjedal and Andrey Amador are dropped, it speaks volumes about how brutal the course was. There was never going to be a sprinter who could make it to the finish with the best and even though Kristian Sbaragli, Luka Mezgec, Alexei Tsetvich, Matteo Trentin, Giacomo Nizzolo, Sacha Modolo and Nikias Arndt all showed good form by being relatively close to the main group, they had no chance to win the stage.

 

In the end, Diego Ulissi again proved that he is back to his best just in time for the Giro d’Italia. To drop those elite climbers on Via del Fortino was a massive performance and it seems that he is just as strong as he was in 2014 when he won two stages in dominant fashion in the first part of the race. It’s a bit of a mystery why he always mistimes his form for the classics and then comes good for the Giro but in any case he will be ready to make the most of it in the first part of the race. He now stands out as Alejandro Valverde’s biggest threat in what is likely to be an uphill sprint on Thursday.

 

Sonny Colbrelli again proved that he is better than ever and it was only bad luck for him that Bongiorno and Amador didn’t make it into the lead group which would have given more firepower to the chase. In the end, it didn’t matter though as he unclipped in the sprint and so rolled across the line in the rear end of the group.

 

Amador’s poor performance was a bit of a surprise and it must be a concern for Movistar that Valverde was the only of the four big favourites to have been isolated in the finale. Nibali had Fuglsang and Scarponi at his side, Landa could count on Lopez and Roche, and Zakarin had both Kochetkov and Taaramae. Of course Movistar worked a bit earlier but Amador and Visconti should definitely have been there in stage like this.

 

The sprinters suffered in today’s stage but now hopes for a chance to bounce back on stage 5. The first week is more sprint-friendly than usual but there won’t be many opportunities left when we get to the gravel roads on Saturday and so they have to make the most of this chance.

 

However, it won’t be easy. The stage is both very long and quite undulating and even though there is only one categorized climb, there aren’t many flat roads either. Especially the second half looks tough.

 

However, you can usually learn a lot about the nature of the stage by looking at the description from the organizers. For stage 4, the roadbook clearly indicated that it was a very tough course but for tomorrow RCS describe it a day with mostly fast-flow roads. The climbs are probably more of long, gradual uphills than short climbs with steep gradients like today. Furthermore, the classics and GC riders don’t have the same kind of incentive to go full gas, especially with the first uphill finish coming just 24 hours later so it should be a much calmer stage.

 

That means that most of the sprinters should be able to survive and we only expect the very heavy guys like Matteo Pelucchi and Jakub Mareczko to get into difficulty. The main challenge will be to make sure that it comes down to a sprint as it will be a long day with a hilly course that won’t allow the chase to get too fast. Hence, we can expect another very fast stage and with this kind of uphill beginning, the break will probably be relatively strong.

 

There is no guarantee that the break will be brought back but the odds are on a sprint finish. Etixx-QuickStep probably want to give it another go before Kittel’s likely withdrawal but more importantly it is also one of the best chances for some of the stronger guys like Giacomo Nizzolo, Nikias Arndt and Sacha Modolo. The sprint is uphill and much more technical and comes at the end of a long, hard day. This makes Kittel much less of a favourite and they will believe more in their chances. With Hesjedal having lost time today, Trek will be even more committed to Nizzolo and as Niemiec is completely out of GC contention, Lampre-Merida will also be keen to get a sprint. We expect those two teams to join forces with Etixx-QuickStep and that kind of firepower will probably be enough to ensure that we get a sprint, especially as the final 50km are easy. However, they can’t allow the break to get much of an advantage as the strong escape will have the upper hand in the tough middle part of the stage.

 

The sprint is very different from what we had in the Netherlands. Those finales were on wide roads and the finishing straight was slightly downhill. This finale is a lot more technical, uphill and even includes some pave. This makes it much less of a power sprint for Kittel and it makes positioning and lead-outs crucial. Hence, we should see a very different sprint than we have seen until now. In the first two stages, the trains have taken the initiative very late but tomorrow it will be important to move forward much earlier.

 

Despite the tough nature of the stage, Marcel Kittel is still the favourite. The German may have come up short in today’s stage but no one can deny that he is in the form of his life. In Romandie, he climbed better than ever before and that just confirmed what he showed in De Panne and Dubai. He should be able to overcome the climbs in this stage.

 

Furthermore, Etixx-QuickStep have proved what we already knew: that there are one of the two best trains in the race. Matteo Trentin and Fabio Sabatini have done a marvelous job to get their big German into position and they will be even more important in a stage where positioning is crucial. The lead-out gives Kittel a huge advantage and the uphill finishing straight won’t be much of a problem. In fact, he has won much harder sprints in Paris-Nice and in Harrogate at the 2014 Tour de France and he has proved that when it comes to pure speed, he is in a class of his own. He may be a little less superior than he has been until now but if he is in a good position, he should be able to win this pretty comfortably.

 

Again we regard Giacomo Nizzolo as his biggest rival. Today the Italian again proved that he has improved his climbing massively as he wasn’t far from the best riders. He will be very motivated for tomorrow’s stage as the uphill finish suits him really well. Furthermore, he loves tricky, technical finales as he has a great acceleration and good technical skills so this one should really be one for him.

 

Nizzolo can also rely on one of the best trains and after the failure in stage 2, Boy van Poppel did a great job in stage 3. Finally, Nizzolo has been sprinting better than ever and he would definitely have been convincing second in stage 3 if he hadn’t been boxed in by Alexandr Porsev. If Kittel is out of position, Nizzolo can definitely win this stage.

 

The uphill finish is also a big advantage for Arnaud Demare who seems to be in very good condition. Usually, the technical finale would have ruled him out as he is very poor at positioning himself but this time he has a better chance. FDJ have proved to have a great train and it was only bad luck that most of his teammates crashed in stage 3, preventing them from showing the same kind of strength than they did 24 hours earlier. Many remember how Demare ruled in such an uphill sprint in the Eneco Tour a few years ago and if FDJ can nail the lead-out, he can win this one too.

 

In stage 3, Elia Viviani proved how much he has improved in the fight for positioning. Despite being completely without support, the Italian managed to grab the spot that everybody wanted: Marcel Kittel’s wheel. He didn’t have the speed to come around Kittel but he will have a better chance in an uphill sprint. He has proved that he can beat the German if he hits out too early and there is a bigger chance that this will happen in this kind of finish. Last year Viviani won the uphill sprint in Genova and he can do so again tomorrow.

 

The uphill finish and technical nature is also very good for Sacha Modolo who showed good form in today’s stage. The many turns are great for his lead-out man Roberto Ferrari too and this means that he is very likely to be well-positioned for the sprint. This year he has been sprinting better than usual and while he is not fast enough to win the flat sprints, he will have a much better chance here.

 

It’s not really a sprint for André Greipel. Today the German again proved that he is climbing very well and he seems to be getting into better condition. An uphill finish is not bad for him but the finale is too technical. He is not good at fighting for position and he doesn’t have his best train here. Jurgen Roelandts doesn’t even seem to be at his best and even though Sean De Bie did extremely well in stage 3, it will be hard for Greipel to be in a position that will allow him to benefit from his great speed.

 

When it comes to speed, Caleb Ewan also stands out. This uphill sprint is great for the tiny Australian – just remember how he beat Peter Sagan and John Degenkolb in a steeper finale at the Vuelta – and he should have a better chance than he has had until now. However, his train with Sam Bewley and Luka Mezgec hasn’t really worked well and they have to improve to give Ewan a chance to sprint for the win.

 

An uphill sprint means that it’s a good stage for Moreno Hofland. The Dutchman took the biggest win of his career in such a sprint in the 2014 Paris-Nice and he seems to be in great condition. Despite being without much team support, he has done really well in the first sprints. Of course the lack of a lead-out could be costly in such a finale but he has been handling the positioning really well until now.

 

Nikias Arndt had bad luck to crash in stage 3 and so he has not really had a chance to show what he can do. However, he showed in today’s stage and in Yorkshire that the form is excellent and he will be keen to grab his chance in a sprint that suits him well. He has Bert De Backer for the lead-out and he has tons of experience. However, it may be too little to get into a food position for the sprint.

 

This finale doesn’t suit Jakub Marezcko so it could be an opportunity for Manuel Belletti. The Italian is getting into form as he proved in Turkey, and he will be looking to some of the harder stages to show his cards. He should find the uphill sprint to his liking.

 

Finally, Sonny Colbrelli deserves a mention. The finale doesn’t suit Nicola Ruffoni so Colbrelli may get his chance. He was left frustrated in today’s stage but he proved that the form is good. To win, he needs a steeper finale but he should mix it up with the best if he gives it a go.

 

As said, a breakaway will have a chance and to find good candidates, you have to look at strong riders who can escape in the tough opening phase and are not well-placed on GC. Keep an eye on riders like Daniel Oss, Tim Wellens, Alessandro De Marchi, Simon Clarke and Stefan Denifl.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: Giacomo Nizzolo, Arnaud Demare

Outsiders: Elia Viviani, Sacha Modolo, André Greipel, Caleb Ewan

Jokers: Moreno Hofland, Nikias Arndt, Kristian Sbaragli, Manuel Belletti, Sonny Colbrelli

Breakaway jokers: Daniel Oss, Tim Wellens, Alessandro De Marchi, Simon Clarke, Stefan Denifl