The first mountain stage turned the GC on its head and produced a very surprising outcome in the battle for the overall win at the Giro d’Italia. Many favourites need time to reflect on their performance and lick their wounds and they will get a chance to do so in stage 7 that should briefly see the sprinters come to the fore in what will the final chance for the fast finishers for some time

 

The course

Last year the sprinters were pretty disappointed that the Giro d’Italia didn’t offer many opportunities but they have nothing to complain about in 2016. After the sprint paradise in the Netherlands, the first part of the Italian stages have several flat stages and after just one day in the mountains, the riders will head back into flat terrain for a stage that is again suited to the fast finishers.

 

Like so often in the Italian race, stage 7 is another very long one whose main purpose is to bring the riders further up towards the mountains in the north. It is 211km and brings the riders from Sulmona to Foligno through the lumpy terrain in the interior of the country. The stage is wavy, with a first climb just some kilometres after the start, the category 2 Le Svolte di Popoli (9km, 5.5%, max. 10%), followed by nearly 200km on wide and mostly straight roads, with roundabouts, speed bumps and traffic islands being the main obstacles typically found in urban areas (such as L’Aquila, Rieti, Terni, Spoleto). There will be an intermediate sprint in L’Aquila at the 59.6km mark as the peloton returns to the city that was hit by an earthquake a few years ago and where Evgeny Petrov won a dramatic and rainy stage in 2010. After the feed zone, the terrain gets even easier as the riders change direction and head straight north.

 

A relatively flat section leads to the category 4 climb of Volico della Somma (6.7km, 4.9%, max. 8%) whose top comes with 40.8km to go. The descent leads to the final intermediate sprint at the 181.1km mark and then flat roads will bring the riders to Foligno. The final part of the route descends (or runs flat) all the way up to the final kilometres, that  are quite uncomplicated, up to 2,000 m from the finish. Here, one right-hand bend quickly followed by two left-hand bends lead into the home stretch with 1,300m to go. There is just one last, mild bend 500m before the finish line, which lies on a 160-m long and 7-m wide asphalt straight. 

 

It’s the 3rd time that Foligno hosts a stage finish. Nacer Bouhanni was the fastest in 2014 when he beat Giacomo Nizzolo and Luka Mezgec. Bitossi won a stage in 1968. The city hosted the finish of a pretty hard stage of this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico where Stephen Cummings made a trademark attack in the finale to claim a solo victory. In 2003, Mario Cipollini won a bunch sprint in the Italian one-week race here.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders had their first taste of rain in today’s stage and there will be more in store for Friday. A total amount of 5mm of rain are forecasted in Foligno and there will be a 75% chance of rain throughout the entire afternoon. The maximum temperature will be just 19 degrees.

 

Furthermore, it will be much windier than usual as there will be a rather strong wind from a southwesterly direction. This means that it will be a cross-tailwind for almost the entire stage. In the finale, it will be a cross-tailwind until the riders get to the late turns just before the flamme rouge. From there it will be a cross-headwind and a cross-tailwind on the short finishing straight.

 

The favourites

The first mountain stage was not expected to do much damage but it turned out to reveal much more than we have predicted. In the end, the time gaps were all small but the Astana aggression ended up making the race much harder and less controlled. Alejandro Valverde admits to having had a strange feeling and not have felt like he would have liked so Movistar never controlled the race as had been expected. This opened the doors for attacks and as the pre-race favourites all showed signs of weakness, the outsiders grabbed their chance.

 

Going into the race, we had made Vincenzo Nibali, Alejandro Valverde and Mikel Landa our pre-race favourites and as we wrote in our pre-race previews, we regarded Ilnur Zakarin and Esteban Chaves as the only other riders with a real shot at the victory. While those two outsiders both confirmed their strength and looked as strong as we had expected, the three pre-race favourites all suffered.

 

Nibali claims that he made a mistake by attacking in a bad place which was definitely true. Still he didn’t do well in the finale and as it comes on the back of his poor showing in Trentino, it is hard not to have some doubts when it comes to the Italian. It’s now a difficult tactical situation for Astana as Fuglsang is clearly better than ever. However, the Dane is never going to win the race so it’s hard to decide which card to play. Now they will probably have to wait until the time trial and then take stock of the situation on the rest day.

 

Valverde’s poor performance was a surprise but it was evident that something was wrong when Movistar did nothing to chase down the break. Landa’s showing was another confirmation after his bad ride in stage 4. It’s still way too early to write off the three pre-race favourites as it will all be decided in the big mountains which are still two more than a week away and especially Nibali will only get stronger from here.

 

However, riders like Chaves and Zakarin have definitely drawn confidence from this. Zakarin’s ability to recover in the third week is a complete unknown and he has been riding at a very high level all year. However, he currently seems to be the best climber in the race so if he can maintain that level, he will be hard to beat – especially as he claims that he was not feeling good today! Chaves has proved that he can handle a three-week race but he has always faded in a third week. However, with a bit more consistency and his improved time trial skills, the Colombian is definitely a strong overall contender.

 

The same now goes for Tom Dumoulin. Before the race, Nikias Arndt admitted that the Dutchman was not telling the truth when he said that he was not going for GC as the team leader just wanted to avoid criticism if he ended the race in a modest 9th place. He still surprised himself by riding so well in this stage and even though it was obviously a climb that suited him well, he was also strong in the steeper sections. With stages 8 and 9 offering him great opportunities to increase his lead, Dumoulin could end up as a GC threat just like he was in last year’s Vuelta.

 

The GC battle will continue with a big weekend that will see the riders travel the famous gravel roads on Saturday and the crucial Chianti time trial on Sunday but before we get there, the main contenders will have time to lick their wounds and reflect on the outcome of today’s stage. Friday should be a day for the sprinters and even though the course is by no means flat, it will be a surprise if the fast finishers don’t come to the fore in Foligno as they usually do here.

 

The next three stages are all about the GC and then there’s a tricky finale in stage 11. This means that the pure sprinters will have to wait until next Thursday to get another opportunity and this is likely to be the final chance for Marcel Kittel and André Greipel who are both likely to leave the race before it heads into the high mountains in the penultimate weekend. With a long wait in store, Friday is an opportunity that they can’t let slip away.

 

However, it’s a tough start with an early category 2 climb and this means that we will probably have a fast start with several attacks. On the other hand, stage 8 is a much better chance for a breakaway so many will be keen to save some energy for Saturday’s stage. It will be no surprise if Nippo-Vini Fantini try to keep things together in the first part of the stage as they want to go for KOM points with Damiano Cunego.

 

After the early aggression, a break will go clear and then things will calm down. Giant-Alpecin will do nothing to bring the break back so it will be left to the sprint teams. In stage 5, Lotto Soudal did almost all the work and they will be keen to keep their winning streak alive as Greipel won’t stay in Italy for much longer. Hence, they will probably do some work. Trek, Lampre-Merida and FDJ also have a clear interest in a sprint finish so even though they won’t be the ones to take the initiative, they will definitely lend a hand if the situation becomes dangerous. Especially the French team can’t allow themselves not to have a sprint in Foligno as Geniez is out of the race and so the team is fully built around Arnaud Demare.

 

It will be interesting to see whether Etixx-QuickStep will give it a try. If Kittel leaves the race next Thursday, this is his penultimate chance. On the other hand, the finale is not easy and it could again be too hard for the German. At the same time, Patrick Lefevere is clearly not pleased with the lack of work of the rival teams and with two stage wins already in their pocket, they may argue that it is left to the others to bring the break back.

 

In the end, however, a lot of teams want a sprint finish and we can’t really imagine that it won’t end in a bunch kick. However, it will be very interesting to see whether all the sprinters will be there. Valico della Somma is a real climb and even though it never gets very steep, it is a perfect chance for some teams to try to put Kittel under pressure. Riders like Modolo, Nizzolo, Sabaragli, Greipel and Demare are better climbers than the big German and they may use their teams to go fast there.

 

In Romandie, Kittel survived similar climbs but back then it was on the first stage of the race and the stage was much shorter. Now we are one week into a grand tour and Kittel has had some very hard days in Italy. There is a very big chance that he will get dropped on the climb but that doesn’t mean that he is out of the battle. Etixx-QuickStep will stay with their sprinter and we could very well get a big chase in the final 40km. However, the team won’t ask Bob Jungels and Gianluca Brambilla to wait and the likes of Carlos Verona, Pieter Serry and David de la Cruz are not very powerful on the flats.

 

To get back, he may have to dig into his lead-out resources of Lukasz Wisniowski, Fabio Sabatini and Matteo Trentin and this could very well cost him the chance to win the stage even if he makes it back. The finale is very technical and as the roads are likely to be wet, it will be a treacherous finale where positioning will be of utmost performance. This means that a strong lead-out will be hugely important and if Kittel doesn’t have his fast riders at his side, it will be hard for him to win, especially as the technical nature of the sprint doesn’t suit him.

 

Instead, we will put Giacomo Nizzolo on top of our list of favourites. The Italian has improved his level significantly during the last year.  He climbed extremely well last autumn and this year he impressed everybody by taking second in the Dubai Tour queen stage and riding very strongly in the cobbled classics. Furthermore, he has been sprinting better than usual, most notably in Croatia where he beat Cavendish twice.

 

Nizzolo is not a rider for the big power sprints like those he faced in the Netherlands but he still proved his speed in Arnhem where he was boxed in by Alexander Porsev but still sprinted faster than both Greipel and Viviani. He loves technical finales like this one and the wet roads will be even better for him. He has a great team to support him and he is better than most when it comes to positioning. He was left frustrated when he was held up behind a crash in Benevento where he was in the perfect position to strike and he will be eager to get his revenge. He has an impressive list of second places and now it is finally time to break the drought.

 

As said, lead-outs will be hugely important in this stage and this means that Arnaud Demare is an obvious candidate. The Frenchman has had a great start to the race with two second places which is a bit unusual as he is usually very inconsistent due to poor positioning. However, in this race, the FDJ train with Konovalovas-Fischer-Sarreau-Delage- Demare has been one of the strongest and there is a big chance that they will take the lead as we go into the final turns. Demate has always been one of the fastest and he likes technical finales. If he is one of the first riders through the final turns, it takes a very fast rider to beat him.

 

Of course we won’t rule Marcel Kittel out. There is no doubt that the German is the fastest rider in this field and he was simply in a class of his won in the Netherlands. This year he has been in the form of his life and it is definitely not impossible for him to survive the final climb or rejoin the peloton. If his lead-out is not worn out after a chase effort, they have proved to be the best alongside the FDJ team so if Trentin and Sabatini are still fresh, Kittel should be one of the first riders through the final turn. If that’s the case, no one is going to beat the big German but he will really rely heavily on his team in this stage.

 

When it comes to lead-outs, Lampre-Merida are among the best. They are not able to dominate things like they did last year where the train of Ferrari-Richeze-Modolo was in a class of its own. Mohoric-Ferrari-Modolo is not at the same level but in this field they are among the best. They had done everything right in stage 5 when Taaramae’s crash derailed their plans and they should be even better in this kind of technical finale. Ferrari could very well be the first rider through the final turn but it may be a bit too early to keep the pace high enough for Modolo to win the stage. However, the Italian should find the technical finale to his liking.

 

André Greipel proved that he is finally back at his best level after an injury-marred spring when he crushed the opposition in Benevento. There is no doubt that he is the only rider with the speed to really challenge Kittel in a head-to-head battle and he should find the tough nature of the stage to his liking. However, the finale doesn’t suit him at all. He is not good at positioning himself and he is always very careful on wet roads. The combination of late turns and wet roads is not good for him and he doesn’t have the best team at his side. Jurgen Roelandts was outstanding in stage 5 but it will be harder for him to do it again in a more crowded finale where it is more about speed than good legs as it was the case in the tough finale on stage 5. However, Greipel can definitely win the stage as he is one of the fastest and in great condition.

 

This race hasn’t brought much luck to Elia Viviani who admits that he is not at his best. On paper, he is one of the fastest riders here but he is significantly hampered by the fact that he doesn’t have any support in the finale. That will be costly in this kind of finish. On the other hand, he has actually been doing some good positioning and if he can grab the right wheel in the finale, he has proved that he is fast enough to beat everybody here.

 

It’s not been a great race for Caleb Ewan yet. The Australian has not even been close to victory which is a bit of a disappointment as he has proved that he is fast enough to take on most. He actually did a good uphill sprint in stage 5 until he ran out of legs in the finale but again poor positioning was costly. Orica-GreenEDGE have failed in their lead-outs and unless they can make up for that and get Ewan into the right spot in the final turns, they won’t be able to capitalize on his fast speed.

 

Going into the race, we didn’t have much confidence in Moreno Hofland as he was unlikely to have a strong support team in the finales. However, the Dutchman and his teammates have proved us wrong. Jos van Emden and Enrico Battaglin have done an outstanding work and Hofland has been great at picking good wheels in the finale. Furthermore, he has done some very good sprints and has turned out to be one of the fastest here. He should be one of the best but he is probably not fast enough or has a good enough lead-out to win the stage.

 

When it comes to positioning, Alexander Porsev has been one of the best. The Russian doesn’t have a real lead-out but he finally seems to be back at the level he had two years ago when a crash stopped his progress. In Arnhem, he did a very strong sprint despite coming from a bit back so he both has the legs and the positioning skills to be up there. The final climb could be a challenge but if he can survive, a podium spot is within reach.

 

Finally, we will point to Manuel Belletti. The Italian has taken over the sprint leadership at Wilier after Jakub Mareczko’s abandonment and he will be keen to make use of his chance in a sprint that suits him well. He likes the technical nature of the finale and is one of the best climbers among the fast finishers. He is probably not fast enough to win but he should be able to do well here.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Giacomo Nizzolo

Other winner candidates: Arnaud Demare, Marcel Kittel

Outsiders: Sacha Modolo, André Greipel, Elia Viviani

Jokers: Caleb Ewan, Moreno Hofland, Alexandr Porsev, Manuel Belletti