André Greipel made the most of the final opportunity for the sprinter in quite some time and now steps into the background as the GC battle recommences in the next three stages. First it is the welcome return of the Tuscan gravel roads in a tough stage 8 and while a breakaway is likely to ride away with the stage win, the GC riders prepare themselves for a difficult test that has the potential to do some damage.

 

The course

With the success of the Strade Bianche, it was always just a matter of time before the Giro d’Italia would include some of the famous gravel roads in their course. They made their debut in 2010 when Cadel Evans rode to a memorable stage win in the rainbow jersey on a very rainy day and was back one year later when Pieter Weening rode into pink by claiming a solo win. Since then, the race hasn’t returned to the gravel but they will make a very welcome comeback in 2016 as they are set to create a great spectacle on a difficult 8th stage.

 

The 186km stage will bring the riders from Foligno to Arrezo as the riders mostly travel in a northwesterly direction until they head into the hilly terrain around the finishing city in the finale. The stage combines flat and mountain roads. The route runs up the Tiber River valley, after rolling past Assisi and Perugia, all the way up to Città di Castello. The Roads are quite wide, but the surface is worn out at points; the roadway narrows when cutting through urban areas. Along the way, they will contest the first intermediate sprint at the 63.5km mark.

 

Just past Città di Castello, the route leaves the Tiber River valley to tackle the steep Anghiari ascent first, followed by the Scheggia category 3 climb (6km, 3.9%, max. 10%). The stage course rolls along wavy roads, with a few narrower sectors while crossing urban areas, all the way up to Indicatore where the final intermediate sprint comes at the 144.5km mark, and Arezzo.

 

Next on the route, after a first pass over the finish line, is the 31.6km finishing circuit which includes the category 2 Alpe di Poti climb (8.6km, 6.5%, ,max. 14%) right from the start, featuring 6.4 km on dirt roads, and double-digit gradients. It has a very tough start as it averages 9.1% over 3km but then it gets much easier after the gravel roads have started with a 14% section. A flat part leads to 2km at 6.9% while the gradient is only 3.9% in the final kilometre. The top comes 18.4km from the finish.

 

After cresting the summit, the road drops quickly into Foce dello Scopetone and straight into the finish, with wide bends that lead to the stadium. The route then cuts across the city centre, where traffic dividers and roundabouts will be the main obstacles. After the flamme rouge, the route takes two right-hand bends in wide roundabouts. A short and steep climb with a maximum gradient of 11% leads to a sharp turn and the home straight (200m), still slightly uphill (approx. 5%).

 

In 2010, the gravel stage created a huge drama and a big selection on a dramatic day when both Liquigas leaders Vincenzo Nibali and Ivan Basso crashed while Cadel Evans won the stage. In 2011, the stage failed to do the same kind of damage when Pieter Weening made a late attack to ride himself into pink.

 

Arezzo hosts a stage finish for the 12th time. In 2003 Mario Cipollini won a sprint here and he was also the fastest in 1997. In 2014 and 2015, the city hosted finishes of Tirreno-Adriatico where a technical, narrow, cobbled circuit became a fan favourite. Greg Van Avermaet won in 2015 while Peter Sagan was the fastest one year earlier.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

In 2010, the gravel stage was made even more memorable by the epic weather conditions while the conditions were dry in 2011. This year it could very well be another muddy day as there is a 50% chance of rain throughout the entire stage. The maximum temperature will be 21 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a southerly direction which means that it will be a cross-tailwind for most of the stage. In the finale, the riders will turn into a crosswind. On the circuit, it will be a crosswind on the climb, a headwind on the descent and then a cross-tailwind in the final part. It will be a cross-headwind for the final kilometre.

 

The favourites

Lotto Soudal may not have their best train to support André Greipel in the Giro but after they failed completely in the Dutch stages, they have really done an excellent job in the last two sprint stages. Of course the team benefits from the fact that none of the best trains are here but Jurgen Roelandts’ work in the last two sprint stages has been outstanding. In stage 5, he led the peloton for most of the final lap and today he did a great job to hold off LottoNL-Jumbo when Jos van Emden tried to pass the Belgians and even though that effort prevented him from doing the lead-out, it made sure that Greipel was still in a reasonable position at the start of a sprint that didn’t really suit him.

 

It was a bit of a shame that we never got the chance to see a head-to-head battle between Greipel and Kittel and now we will have to wait for the Bibione stage before we get the big showdown between the two Germans. That stage is likely to be the final one for the pair before they turn their attention to the Tour de France. It was also frustrating that Giacomo Nizzolo was briefly boxed in by Greipel as it cost him the chance to really take on the German and it would have been great to finally see whether the Italian really has the speed to beat the best like he did when he defeated Cavendish twice in Croatia.

 

There is a very small chance for the strongest sprinters in stage 11 but most of them will have to wait until stage 12 before they get their next chance. Instead, the GC battle will be the focus of the next three stages which first include the highly anticipated gravel stage, the long Chianti time trial and finally a rather easy uphill finish one day after the rest day.

 

First up is the return to the gravel roads. The amount of off-road section is small as the riders only have to tackle the dirt on the final climb but it’s still enough to make the Strade Bianche specialists lick their lips in anticipation. However, the race is very different from the Italian classic which is characterized by its short, steep climbs which makes it a race for puncheurs and classics specialist. This stage has a proper climb in the end and while Strade Bianche is usually an exciting battle between the classics riders and the stage race specialists, this stage is much more for the GC riders.

 

The final climb is so hard that the GC riders will definitely test each other here and especially Vincenzo Nibali will be keen to show that yesterday’s result was not a reflection of his true level. His great technical skills make him perfectly suited to the gravel roads and he wants to make up for the disappointment of five years ago when both he and Ivan Basso crashed on the wet gravel which cost him the maglia rosa. He will definitely try to gain time on some of the lighter riders as they often have a much harder time on these roads where it can be hard to raise from the saddle. Especially Mikel Landa who has shown lots of signs of weakness, stands out as a rider who is likely to suffer here.

 

However, one of the most important stages of the entire race is coming up on Sunday so all the GC riders will have that in the back of their mind. That means that they will be unwilling to go all out in a big solo move and it will probably lead to a bit more conservative racing. It also means that the stage is very likely to be won by a breakaway. If things come back together, Alejandro Valverde stands out as the big favourite in a punchy finale that suits him well – especially as he has a great track record in Strade Bianche. This means that only Movistar and maybe Lampre-Merida who may chase the stage win with Diego Ulissi, have a real interesting in bringing things back together. With Valverde having an eye on the TT and not having had the best feelings yesterday, we doubt that Movistar will make the effort and unless Lampre-Merida go all in for Ulissi, we expect this stage to be one for a breakaway.

 

This means that we can expect a very fast start with lots of attacks and it will probably take more than an hour for the break to be formed. Giant-Alpecin will make sure that no dangerous rider makes it into the move and this means that there will be no room for riders that are close on GC. With an easy start to the stage, the German team should be able to handle the task and it also means that it requires a solid amount of luck to make it into the break.

 

While luck is needed in the first part of the stage, it will be all about the legs in the finale. The climb is so tough that you need to be an excellent climber to win this stage and so the list of potential winners is much smaller. When looking for the favourites for this stage, we have to focus on riders that are not too close to the maglia rosa and who are great climbers and strong on the flats as it will be difficult to get into the right break. A punchy finish is definitely an asset for the finale but with the climb being so hard, it is not needed to win the stage

 

In 2013, Moreno Moser was at height of his career when he rode to a memorable solo win in Strade Bianche in what was a fantastic 1-2 for Cannondale with Peter Sagan in second place. Since then the Italian has been far from that level and while he looked like one of the brightest stars after the first year of his professional career, his star has waned. In fact, he has been riding terribly for several years and it has been almost impossible to explain what has happened to the huge talent.

 

Moser is still not the rider he once was but he seems to be getting better. Last year he won a stage at the Tour of Austria and did a great TT at the Worlds and this year he has continued his progress. He was solid in Romandie and he proved his form with sixth place in the time trial. He went on the attack in stage 4 where he was going for the maglia rosa but that attempt failed and he lost so much time that the pink jersey was no longer a realistic target.

 

Yesterday he lost a lot of time and this was maybe a sign that he will try to win this stage. Now he is no longer a GC contender but the form is evidently very good. At his best, he climbs well enough to be strong on the final ascent and he has the technical skills to handle the gravel roads and the final descent. Finally, he is very fast in an uphill sprint so he has all the attributes to do well here. Cannondale have done nothing to hide that they are going for stage wins while also supporting Uran’s GC quest and tomorrow could be a day for Moser to go on the attack. We put our money on the punchy Italian to win the stage.

 

BMC are here with a full focus on stage wins and they have a formidable card to play. Alessandro De Marchi often comes up with the goods and is one of the best riders for winning from breakaways. He is brutally strong on the flats and so has a great chance of making the right move and he is a big guy who should do well on the gravel roads. He climbs well enough to drop his companions on the final climb. The main concern is that he has to arrive solo to win the stage and that he didn’t look very good when he was in the break in the finale of stage 4.

 

After his health issues in 2015, Sonny Colbrelli has been better than ever in 2016 and he is really developing into the leading Italian classics contender that he has always had the potential to be. He has been climbing excellently all year and proved his class with third place in the Amstel Gold Race. In stage 4, he was the only classics rider who managed to stay with the GC riders which speaks volumes about his form. He will definitely try to join the break in this stage. The final climb is maybe too long and hard for him but if he can survive he will be impossible to beat in the uphill sprint.

 

Lampre-Merida have Diego Ulissi for the finale but they will also try to ride aggressively. Przemyslaw Niemiec is a great candidate for this stage. The Pole is not as strong as he once was but in the Tour of Turkey he proved that he is still a very classy bike rider and it was only Lotto Soudal’s great crosswind attack that prevented him from going for the overall win. In his heydays, he always did well in Strade Bianche so he finds the gravel roads to his liking. If he joins the right break, he will probably be one of the best on the final climb.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE are mainly here for Esteban Chaves but a few days ago Amets Txurruka proved that they will also try to join the breaks. The Basque is of course a good card but the gravel roads probably don’t suit him well. Instead, Ruben Plaza stands out as a solid breakaway candidate. Last year he suddenly turned into a winner as he won from breakaways in both the Tour de France and the Vuelta a Espana. He is not in the same kind of form yet but he was not too far off the pace in the summit finish so his condition is not bad. He is a big guy who should do well on the gravel roads and the final climb and he knows how to win from a breakaway.

 

Three stage wins in a row may not be enough for Lotto Soudal. To win tomorrow, however, it has to be Tim Wellens again. If it had been almost any other rider, we would have deemed it impossible but when it comes to the Belgian, everything seems to be within reach. He may start the stage with the intention to take it easy but he can probably not hold himself back, especially as he can also extend his lead in the mountains jersey. If he joins the right break, he won’t be easy to beat in a stage that suits him down to the ground.

 

If it comes down to a battle between the favourites, Alejandro Valverde is the most likely winner. The Spaniard showed signs of weakness yesterday but he is still the fastest GC rider in an uphill sprint. His great Strade Bianche history shows that he can handle the cobbles and the final climb suits him really well. He is an excellent descender and we doubt that anyone will be able to beat him in the sprint. The big challenge will be to keep things together in the flat run-in to the finish as he could very well be isolated from a Movistar team that seems to be much weaker than expected.

 

One of the only riders with a real chance to beat Valverde in an uphill sprint is Diego Ulissi. The Italian proved his form in stage 4 and the final kilometre is perfectly suited to his punchy characteristics. However, the final climb could very well be too long to his liking and as he proved yesterday, he struggles to compete with the best on the real climbs. He has to dig deep to survive but if he does, he can win the stage.

 

Tom Dumoulin is also very fast in this kind of uphill sprint and in general, this stage suits him down to the ground. He is powerful on the climbs, can handle the gravel roads and has a fast finish. We wouldn’t even be surprised if he tries to attack in the final flat section which will be hard to control. Of course he will have the time trial in the back of his mind but if he sees an opportunity to go for the win with a late attack or a sprint, he will take his chance.

 

As said, it won’t be easy for anyone to control the final kilometres so if the favourites decide the stage, the door is open for late attacks. If that’s the case, it is a good idea to keep an eye on Steven Kruijswijk, Sergey Firsanov, Kanstantsin Siutsou, Gianluca Brambilla and Rein Taaramae who won’t be too heavily marked and can make such a move stick.

 

For other strong breakaway candidates, we will point to Carlos Betancur, Simon Clarke and Primoz Roglic. Movistar have an eye on the teams classification and so they want a rider in the break. Betancur has returned to form and even though he is not at his best yet, the finale suits him well. Clarke has been riding very strongly all year and is suited to the punchy finale if he can survive the climb. Finally, Roglic is returning to full health after his crash and his TT performance proves that he is in the form of his life.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Moreno Moser (from a breakaway)

Other winner candidates: Alessandro De Marchi, Sonny Colbrelli (both from a breakaway),

Outsiders: Prsemyslaw Niemiec, Ruben Plaza, Tim Wellens (all from a breakaway), Alejandro Valverde, Diego Ulissi, Tom Dumoulin (sprint)

Jokers for late attacks after the climb: Steven Kruijswijk, Sergey Firsanov, Kanstantsin Siutsou, Gianluca Brambilla, Rein Taaramae

Jokers for breakaways: Carlos Betancur, Simon Clarke, Primoz Roglic, Matteo Busato