The Giro d'Italia was once known as a predominantly affair but a clear strategy to internationalize the race has paid off. For the third year in a row, two of the biggest favourites for the Italian grand tour are international stars as Mikel Landa and Alejandro Valverde prepare themselves for a great battle against local hero Vincenzo Nibali. The start list may not be quite as star-studded as it was two years ago but with a great mix of some of the most exciting stage race talents ready to take on the three stars, the scene is set for three weeks of great racing in Italy. CyclingQuotes.com takes a thorough look at this year's favourites and outsiders and finds out all about their strengths and weaknesses.

 

When Michele Acquarone took over the reins from Angelo Zomegnan as race director of the Giro d'Italia, he had a firm objective. He wanted to internationalize what was by many seen as a mostly Italian race in an attempt to challenge the position of the Tour de France as the world's leading bike race and the first premise for success in that regard was the attraction of more international stars to the race's line-up.

 

The effort has clearly paid off as a more balanced route design with shorter transfers, no excessive climbing and more time trialing has convinced several international stars to make the Giro a big  target of the season. In the last few years, the race has been the big objective for riders like Bradley Wiggins, Nairo Quintana, Joaquim Rodriguez, Alberto Contador and Richie Porte and this year it is the first big objective for Mikel Landa and Alejandro Valverde.

 

At the same time, the Italian fans will be celebrating the welcome return of Vincenzo Nibali who goes into the race with the firm ambition of returning to the top step after his 2013 victory. He will be joined by Domenico Pozzovivo and youngster Davide Formolo in carrying the Italian flag while the likes of Rigoberto Uran, Ilnur Zakarin, Esteban Chaves, Rafal Majka, Steven Kruijswijk, Ryder Hesjedal, Jean-Christophe Peraud and Tom Dumoulin add more international flavor. The line-up may not be quite as star-studded as it was in the memorable 2014 edition but the organizers have nothing to be ashamed of as they invite the cycling world to one of the most beautiful cycling festivals of the year.

 

CyclingQuotes.com has taken an in-depth look at the race's favourites, assigning 5 stars to the race's biggest favourite, 4 to his two biggest rivals, 3 to three other potential winners, 2 to four of the podium contenders and 1 to five of the race's minor outsiders. In this article, we take a look at the 1-star riders that may finish on the podium if everything goes their way.

 

Jakob Fuglsang (*)

After several years in the shadow of the Schleck brothers, Jakob Fuglsang was in search for opportunities to lead a WorldTOur team in a grand tour. He found what he was looking for when he signed a contract with Astana for the 2013 season as the Kazakh team only had one big leader. With Vincenzo Nibali aiming for the Giro d’Italia, the Dane got the big opportunity to be Tour de France captain and he confirmed his potential by riding to seventh in France.

 

However, the emergence of Fabio Aru has put Fuglsang’s personal grand tour ambitions on hold. With two potential grand tour winners in the ranks, Fuglsang has dropped down the hierarchy and after his top 10 in the 2013 Tour, he has not had a chance to chase personal success. Instead, he has developed into a key domestique for Nibali in his past two Tour de France campaigns and even though he went into both races as a protected rider who could potentially be a second threat for the GC, the goal for the team was never for him to win the race.

 

After Aru won the Vuelta, things only became more complicated for Fuglsang and it has always been clear that there will be no room for grand tour leadership in 2016 either. Instead, Fuglsang is set to play his usual role as Nibali’s right-hand man and as the Italian is aiming for the Giro, the Dane will make his debut in the Italian race before turning his attention to a support role for Aru at the Tour de France.

 

However, that doesn’t mean that Fuglsang don’t have any personal ambitions. In fact, the Dane is aiming for the podium as Astana go into the race with the lofty plan to have two riders in the top 3. Fuglsang has been chosen as the second rider in the hierarchy and even though he could be forced to sacrifice his chances during the race, the initial plan is for him to focus on the overall standings.

 

With just one top 10 in a grand tour, Fuglsang doesn’t have an impressive track record in three-week races but he has proved that he is a hugely consistent stage race rider. He has won the Tours of Denmark, Austria, Luxembourg and Slovenia and been on the podium in the Tour de Suisse. Since he achieved those results, he has even improved his climbing significantly and this year he has probably been climbing better than ever.

 

Already last year it was rumoured that Fuglsang had lost weight and was flying up the mountains and he went into the Tour de Suisse as one of the big favourites. He eventually fell ill in that race and so never got the chance to prove what he could do. His Tour de France also unraveled even though he bounced back with solid breakaway attempts in the mountains and he is still left wondering what might have happened in stage 18 if he had not been run down by a motorbike.

 

This year Fuglsang seems to have taken another step. He worked for Nibali in Oman but still managed to finished third behind his teammate and thus the team proved that it is possible to have both riders on the podium. After a focus on one-day races with solid performances in Strade Bianche and a debut Tour of Flanders, the Dane has been preparing for the Giro.

 

What really proves his form is his performance in Trentino, traditionally the key indicator for the Giro. While his leader was off the pace, Fuglsang was the best of the rest behind the dominant Mikel Landa and even though it was his teammate Tanel Kangert who benefited from the tactical battle to win two stages and finish second overall, Fuglsang was the only rider who could really test Landa on the climbs.

 

This puts Fuglsang in a great position to go for the podium in the Giro and he should find the course to his liking. With its irregular and very steep climbs, the Giro actually doesn’t suit him too well but this year there are no excessive climbs. Instead, it is a very modest course with more regular ascents which is better for the Dane. The fact that most of the stages have downhill finishes may be an advantage too as he is probably not strong enough to go with the very best on the ascents.

 

However, there are still several doubts concerning Fuglsang’s ability to do well on GC. First of all, there’s of course his position in the Astana hierarchy. The main goal is to win the race with Nibali and Fuglsang could be forced to work for his leader, especially if Nibali takes the race lead early, maybe already after the long time trial. Secondly, Fuglsang’s three-week history isn’t great and while he has always been strong in one-week races, he seems to lack the consistency to do well over three weeks. He has been in the top 10 once but mostly he has had to shelve his GC plans relatively early after a bad day in the mountains.

 

Finally, there’s the question of his TT skills. Fuglsang is the typical case of a versatile rider who excelled in TTs in the early part of his career. However, as he improved his climbing, he lost strength in the time trials and while it was one a strong weapon for him, time trialling is now a disadvantage and the Dane has often lost costly time in the individual discipline. Nothing suggests that it has changed and he can expect to lose a significant amount of time in Chianti. Even though he is a solid climber, he is not climbing well enough to take it all back in the mountains and so the win seems to be beyond his reach.

 

However, Fuglsang probably has his best shot ever at a top result in a grand tour and everything will depend on how Nibali is doing. There are signs that the Italian may not be at the top of his game and if things unravel for the leader, Fuglsang will be ready to strike. If he can climb like he did in Trentino, the Dan could be a prominent figure throughout the three weeks in Italy.

 

Jean-Christophe Peraud (*)

When he celebrated his 30th birthday, Jean-Christophe Peraud had not even thought about riding a grand tour, let alone contend for the podium in one of the biggest races of the world. Back then, the Frenchman was one of the leading mountain bike riders and one year later he won the silver medal at the Beijing Olympics in the cross country race.

 

In 2009, however, he started to do some road racing and when he beat Sylvain Chavanel to claim the French TT championships, it became apparent that he could maybe make a career in a completely different branch of the sport. Later that year he finished 12th at the World Championships and decided to give it a try by signing a WorldTour contract with Omega Pharma-Lotto.

 

His potential became apparent right from the beginning as he finished in the top 10 in first WorldTour races, Paris-Nice and Vuelta al Pais Vasco, and in the latter event he was even only 4 seconds off the podium. All was set for a big Tour de France debut but he crashed out of the Dauphiné and had to postpone his debut in his home grand tour for another year. Instead, he lined up for the Vuelta and nearly took the leader’s jersey by going on the attack in the very hilly stage 9.

 

He signed a contract with Ag2r-La Mondiale and continued his impressive run of success in stage races. Top 10s in the Tour Med, Paris-Nice, Criterium International, Criterium du Dauphiné, Tour de l’Ain, Tour du Poitou-Charentes and Tour of Beijing speaks volumes about a very consistent and gifted rider for the multi-day events. He crowned it all by finishing 9th in his debut Tour de France.

 

He failed to reach the same level in 2012 – partly because he mixed his road racing commitments with a return to mountain biking for the Olympics – but if anyone thought that Father Time had caught up with the Frenchman, the 2013 season proved them wrong. In fact the season was his best yet and he finished in the top 6 in the Tour Med, Paris-Nice, Criterium International and the Tour de Romandie. Furthermore, he was poised for another top 10 result in the Tour but crashed out of the race in a very dramatic way in the final time trial.

 

Remarkably, Peraud stepped up his level a further notch in 2014. In fact he went from being one of those GC riders that you rarely see on TV to being up there with the best on the climbs. In February, he won the Tour Med queen stage and finished second overall but it was his performance in Tireno-Adriatico that really caught the attention. In the hardest stage he dropped Nairo Quintana on the brutally steep Muro di Guardiagrele and ended the race in 4th overall. A few weeks later he took his first major stage race victory at the Criterium International before reaching one of his big career goals by finishing on the podium in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco.

 

Despite going into the race as one of the best stage race riders of the spring, there weren’t huge expectations for Peraud for the Tour de France. Tipped as potential top 10 candidate, Peraud flew under the radar but right from the start it was evident that he was on fire. He may have benefited from Froome’s and Contador’s crashes but no one can deny that Peraud ended the race as the biggest threat to the dominant Nibali and even though he was never close to victory, it was hugely deserved when he stepped onto the podium in second place.

 

At 37 years of age, it was always going to be doubtful whether Peraud could maintain the same level in 2015 but unfortunately he never got the chance to build on his success. Health issues marred his off-season and it became a question of playing catch-up all year. He surprised himself by beating an in-form Thibaut Pinot to take a second consecutive Criterium International title but apart from that he was out of form for the entire spring season. He never got back to his best level and even before he headed to Utrecht for the grand depart, he admitted that it would be very hard to go for GC in his home race. His predictions turned out to be true. He crashed hard late in the race but at that point he was already out of GC contention.

 

Already during last year’s Tour, Peraud made it clear that it would be his last edition of La Grande Boucle. He had always said that he wanted to give the Giro a real try before the end of his career and a latecomer to the sport, he had never had a real chance yet. In fact he had already considered doing the Italian race in 2015 but due to his Tour de France success it was impossible for him not to go to his home race. With 2016 season set to be his final year in the pro peloton, there’s only one chance left and so the Giro is the big goal for Peraud in 2016.

 

Unlike last year, Peraud has had a solid off-season but at 37 years of age, it was always going to be doubtful whether he could return to his past level, especially as he hasn’t been riding well for almost two years. The spring season has done little to silence his critics. He has been riding much better than he did 12 months ago and even though he failed to make it three in a row at the Criterium International, it is hard to deny the fact that he is at a much higher level.

 

However, there’s still a long way from the 2016 version of Peraud to the rider who consistently contended for the podium in every stage race in 2014, and it would be a big surprise if he can reach those lofty heights again. On the other hand, he showed clear signs of improvement in the Giro del Trentino where he was with the best on the climbs and finished the race in 9th overall. After the race, he was pleased with his performance and said that it was the first time for almost two years that he felt like his former self.

 

Peraud goes into the race as part of a two-pronged attack with Pozzovivo but the pair is unlikely to benefit from their strength in numbers. Both are coming back from injury and have played catch-up for some time so they will both have a cautious approach to the race. However, Peraud should find the course to his liking. Time trialling has always been his biggest assets and even though he has never been a man for the flat TTs, he has always been one of the best on hilly courses. The rolling terrain in Chianti is tailor-made for Peraud and if he can just get close to his former level, he should emerge as one of the big winners there.

 

In the past, he would have no reason to fear the mountains but nowadays he will have to play it defensively there. Hence, he will be pleased that this year’s edition is easier than usual and that there are only two real mountaintop finishes late in the race. The mountain time trial should be better for Peraud than a traditional mountain stage as he has always done really well in such tests. Furthermore, the absence of the team time trial is big advantage for the entire Ag2r team.

 

Another podium in a grand tour seems to be beyond Peraud’s reach but the Frenchman has a history of surprising the world. He is back on track after more than a year of suffering and even though nothing suggests that he will ever return to his 2014 level, less may be enough to finish in the top 5 here. That would be a beautiful end to a grand tour career that started very late and which very few would have imagined being this successful.

 

Davide Formolo (*)

When Italians are asked to describe their order of succession of grand tour stars, they usually come up with a clear hierarchy. As winner of all three grand tours, Vincenzo Nibali is the obvious number 1 and Fabio Aru has firmly established himself as second in the line of succession. However, it is a general expectation that the rider who will take over from Aru is Davide Formolo who made his grand tour debut in Italy this sprint.

 

In 2014, Formolo had an outstanding start to his professional career. Already in February, he caught our attention when he seemed to be the strongest in the hard Italian one-day races at the start of the year. Later a bout of illness set him back but he bounced back with a great showing in the spring and early summer. Right after his recovery, he was already fourth in the Tour of Turkey but it was his performance in June that really confirmed his potential. First he finished seventh in his first ever WorldTour race at the Tour de Suisse and later he impressed the Italian cycling fans when an in-form Vincenzo Nibali was unable to drop him at the Italian championships just weeks before he stood on the top step of the podium as Tour de France champion.

 

That performance created huge expectations for Formolo and it was only natural for Jonathan Vaughters to keep him when the Cannondale and Garmin teams merged. In fact, the team manager has so much confidence in his protégé that he has already described him as a future winner of the Giro d’Italia.

 

However, Formolo has been unable to confirm the huge potential that he showed at the start of his career. For some reason, the Italian was unable to reach the same lofty heights in 2015 and even though he became a household name for cycling fans by riding to a storming stage win at his Giro d’Italia debut, his performances were not even close to what he showed in his debut season. He showed a brief sign of resurgence at the Tour de Pologne but was unable to back it up at the USA Pro Challenge and the Tour of Alberta.

 

Many had hoped that his first grand tour would have a good effect on him as it so often has on young riders but that seems not to have been the case for Formolo. However, there have been small signs of progress in 2016 but he has missed the consistency that characterized him in his debut season. He was 7th in the first mountain stage at the very competitive Volta a Catalunya but then he lost everything in the queen stage.

 

Since the Spanish race, Formolo has been training with his Cannondale team and things looked promising when he returned to competition in Romandie. Unfortunately, he crashed in the time trial and this took him out of contention while also setting him back in his preparation for the Giro.

 

Formolo’s main goal in the Giro is to support Rigoberto Uran who is aiming for the overall win but he will probably try to stay in GC contention too. The course doesn’t really suit his skills as a pure climber though and he will lose lots of time in the Chianti time trial. He would have preferred more summit finishes too as there won’t be many opportunities for him to gain time.

 

On the other hand, Cannondale always have an aggressive strategy and if he is set back in the long TT, Formolo won’t be too heavily marked. That’s how Steven Kruijswijk rode himself back into GC contention last year and the course opens lots of opportunities to do the same.

 

Formolo’s ability to recover is of course and obvious question mark. Last year he was much stronger in the first week than he was later in the race and he has only done one three-week race. Nobody knows whether he has the skills to ever be competitive over three weeks. However, he is still very young and there is plenty of time to improve those skills. Mostly, young riders are a lot more consistent in their second grand tour.

 

Based on his recent performances, we are not too confident that Formolo will be able to turn everything around during the next three weeks. However, it is hard to forget the huge potential he showed in the early stages of his career and it is definitely no coincidence that the Italian cycling fans have hailed him as their next big GC contender. He has the talent to become one of the grand tour stars and the 2016 Giro could be the venue for him to show it.

 

Tom Dumoulin (*)

It’s hard not to get a feeling of déjà vu. In August, Tom Dumoulin went into the Vuelta a Espana with his eye on stage wins in the time trial and some of the hilly stages but he had no ambitions for the GC. He had slowly improved his skills for one-week races, most notably with a podium finish at the Tour de Suisse, but he had always refused the suggestion that GCs at grand tours were realistic goals.

 

There is little doubt that Dumoulin spoke the truth but as the race went on, he kept surprising himself, his team and the entire cycling world. People kept predicting when he would crack but when he was still sitting in third after the brutal queen stage in Andorra, he suddenly started to believe that he could on. When he came out of the three consecutive mountain stages in the penultimate weekend in fourth overall, he finally admitted that the overall win was within reach.

 

Dumoulin rode himself into the race lead in the time trial but ultimately the race was two days too long as he cracked in the final mountain stage and slipped to sixth overall. However, the result had proved that he can now aim for GCs in grand tours and suddenly there was more Dutch hype around Dumoulin than there was around riders like Gesink, Mollema, Kelderman and Kruijswijk.

 

Now Dumoulin is again going into a grand tour claiming that his only goal is to win stages, most notably the first two time trials where he also aims for a stink in pink. Based on recent memory, people can definitely be forgiven for being a bit sceptical but there is reason to believe the tall Dutchman.

 

Dumoulin is one of the best time triallists in the world and he has a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to win Olympic gold in Rio where the hilly course suits him down to the ground. He may never get such a chance again as the course in Tokyo could be a lot flatter and as he aims to go down the stage race path in the future, he may lose some strength in the TTs. Hence, he made the Rio TT his big goal for the year and he won’t do anything that will compromise his chances in Brazil in August.

 

Hence, he has decided to postpone his grand tour plans for another year and the main goal in the Giro will be stage wins. However, he doesn’t rule anything completely out, saying that no one knows how things will be after one or two weeks.

 

That opens the door slightly for a change of mindset and it is a fact that the course could gradually persuade Dumoulin to go for GC. With a relatively easy start, there is a big chance that he will find himself in the maglia rosa after the long time trial and you don’t just throw away a leader’s jersey in a grand tour. At least, that’s what he said at last year’s Vuelta. Furthermore, the climbing in this year’s race is not too severe so he could potentially hold onto the jersey for much longer.

 

However, Dumoulin learned what bad effect his GC campaign had on his time trial at last year’s World Championships and he is unlikely to make a similar mistake. It may be hard for him to let the GC go but with his eyes on Rio, we believe that he will, at least when we get to the big day in the Dolomites in the penultimate weekend. Furthermore, Dumoulin has trained more for the time trials than for the climbing so we doubt that he will be able to perform like he did 12 months ago.

 

We believe that Dumoulin will stick to the plan and that he will be nowhere near the best at the end of the race. However, as he has opened a small door for a change of mind, he can’t be ruled out completely. The course with few summit finishes and two relatively flat time trials is tailor-made for him and so he actually has the skills to win this kind of race. After all, history shows that it is very dangerous not to keep a close eye on Dumoulin in a three-week race.

 

Sergey Firsanov (*)

When it was announced that Gazprom-Rusvelo had received the final wildcard for the Giro d’Italia, there was lots of scepticism among cycling fans. The selection was a clear example of a decision that was made more for commercial reasons than on sporting grounds and that didn’t please the hardcore cycling public. After all, the team had barely achieved any top results in the big races.

 

For several years, Sergey Firsanov has been a bit of a One Man Army for the Russian team and his results were the sporting alibi for Gazprom-Rusvelo’s invitation. After having spent his early years in Denmark, he returned to his home country in 2011 and joined Rusvelo in 2012. Since then he has been a perennial contender in the hardest Italian one-day races and won numerous races in Eastern Europe. He has been one of the most consistent riders in the Italian races but the lack of a big win has meant that he has mostly flown under the radar.

 

However, things have completely changed for Firsanov. It may be the prospect of making a grand tour debut at the ripe age of 33. In any case, Firsanov has suddenly stepped up his level massively. It all started when he demolished the opposition in the first mountain stage at the Settimana Coppi e Bartali which he went on to win overall. After a training camp, he returned to competition at the Giro dell’Appennino where he was even more impressive as he rode into a strong headwind for more than 20km before claiming a marvelous solo win.

 

Those results made him an outsider for the Giro del Trentino where he was up against some of the biggest name for the first time this year. He nearly created another surprise in the first mountain stage where h almost reeled Mikel Landa in on the final climb and if it had been just a few metres longer, the Russian could very well have won the stage. He was clearly one of the best in the final two mountain stages and it was only the time loss in the team time trial that prevented him from finishing better than fourth overall.

 

The results have elevated Firsanov from a bit of a nobody to an outsider for his first grand tour. However, with no previous experience in three-week races, he finds himself in untested territory and it is unclear whether he can maintain his level throughout the entire race, especially as he has been flying since March. On the other hand, nobody knows, not even himself, and this makes him a very big unknown.

 

Firsanov’s strengths are his climbing skills and he hasn’t done very many time trials in recent years, especially not at the highest level. However, he is no bad time triallist and he should be able to defend himself well in the TTs. The biggest issue may be his ability to handle the longer climbs. He hasn’t done many races in the high mountains and he has had his best results in moderately hilly terrain. He was good on the hard stages in Trentino but it may reveal something about his skills that he was best on the relatively short climb in stage 2.

 

Finally, his goals are a bit unclear. Gazprom-Rusvelo first said that they would be aiming for stage wins but with Firsanov’s recent showings, they may change their mind. In any case, it would be stupid of the Russian to lose unnecessary time in the first week. Then it will be all or nothing and there will be time to change his mind and got for a stage win in the final week if he is unable to pose a reasonable threat in the GC.

 

Firsanov goes into the race as one of the biggest question marks and nobody knows what the outcome will be. There is a big chance that he will crack later in the race but the veteran may be able to hold on throughout the entire three-week race. If that’s the case, there will no longer be any criticism of Gazprom-Rusvelo’s wildcard. RCS Sport would love their gamble to pay off and see Firsanov justify their decision by becoming the big revelation of the 2016 Giro d’Italia.

 

Other top 10 contenders: Alexandre Geniez, Tanel Kangert, Joe Domrbowski, Darwin Atapuma, Igor Anton, Merhawi Kudus, Kantantsin Siutsou, Bob Jungels, Gianluca Brambilla, David de la Cruz, Carlos Verona, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Maxime Monfort, Andrey Amador, Carlos Betancur, Damiano Cunego, Primoz Roglic, Mikel Nieve, Nicolas Roche