The Italian cycling season will kick off on Sunday with its traditional opening event, the GP Costa degli Etruschi. However, the curtain raiser is no longer the sprint festival it once was. Instead, the introduction of tough climbs in the finale means that the balance has been tipped and nowadays the race is one for the fast finishers who can handle a considerable amount of climbing.

 

For more than a decade, it had become a tradition that the Italian cycling season always kicked off with a big bunch sprint in Donoratico on the first Sunday in February. The GP Costa degli Etruschi had developed into a big chance for the best Italian sprinters to get an early victory before the classics riders took over in the Italian one-day scene. Being the leading Italian sprinter, Alessandro Petacchi dominated the race by winning it six times in a row from 2005 to 2010.

 

Like most other Italian races, however, the event suffered from financial difficulties that forced the organizers to initially cancel the 2013 edition. After the GS Emilia took over the reins to save the race, they managed to put it on in late September as a preparation race for the Worlds in Florence. To make it more suitable for that purpose, the course was made significantly hillier and it was Michele Scarponi who broke the dominance of the sprinters in Donoratico.

 

In 2014 the race was back at its usual February date but the organizers decided not to return to the sprint format. Instead, they designed another hilly course that took the riders over several climbs in the finale before they descended to a flat finale. This made it very similar to a lot of other Italian one-day races which are dominated by fast riders who can overcome the hard climbs but Simone Ponzi managed to escape in the finale and win his first race in Neri Sottoli colours. Apparently, they liked the format as the days when the pure sprinters will rule on the opening day of the Italian cycling season didn’t return in 2015 when they used the same course. This time it ended in a reduced bunch sprint where Manuel Belletti came out on top.

 

The course

The organizers have decided not to use the exact same course for the 2016 edition of the race as they did in 2014 and 2015. The 190.6km course starts on the Tyrrhenian coast in San Vincenzo and ends a little further up the coast in Donoratico. It can be split into four parts, with the final one being the hardest and crucial one.

 

The first part consists of a 58.5km loop that takes the riders into the area south of the starting city, back to the coast and up along the seafront to the finish in Donoratico. This part is mostly flat but contains the Campiglia Marittima climb at the 41.5km mark.

 

Having reached Donoratico, the riders will do three laps of a 24.3km circuit that is not too hard. There is a small climb in the early part but it should do little to trouble the sprinters. Back in Donoratico, the riders will do two laps of a 10.3km circuit that includes the small San Giusto climb.

 

The finale starts with 38.6km to go when the riders have returned to Donoratico again. Now they will tackle two laps of a much harder 19.3km finishing circuit. It includes the Torre Segalari climb which is 2.9km long and has an average gradient of 5.1%. The final passage comes just 9.1km from the finish and from there it is a fast descent and 2.5km of flat roads that lead to the finish along the coast.

 

 

 

 

The weather

It will be a rainy and windy start to the 2016 season in Italy as there is a 50%-75% chance of rain throughout the entire race and a maximum temperature of 14 degrees. There will be a rather strong wind from a southerly direction which means that the riders will have a headwind on the final climb, a crosswind on the descent and the first part of the final flat section and finally a tailwind

 

The favourites

With the new format, the race is very similar to a lot of other Italian one-day race and it is no wonder that the same riders usually dominate most of the events in one of cycling’s main countries. This means that this race will be the first big test between the riders that are set to clash throughout most of the season and it will give a first indication of their internal hierarchy. Furthermore, it is the start of the prestigious Coppa Italia competition which is very important for Bardiani, Southeast, Androni and Nippo-Vini Fantini as the winner is guaranteed a spot in the 2017 Giro d’Italia.

 

Torre Segalari is so tough that the pure sprinters won’t have a chance and the main question will be which riders will be able to hang onto the peloton as they go up the steep slopes. Several teams have a clear interest in making the race as hard as possible and this means that the race should be rather selective.

 

Furthermore, the weather conditions will be brutal. The strong wind could create splits even though it will mainly be a tail- or a headwind. The rain will only make things tougher and this will only make it easier to prevent a sprint finish.

 

On the other hand, there will be a rather strong headwind on the final climb which is where the difference has to be made. This will make it harder for a small group to get a gap and make it easier for the sprinters to hang on.

 

Every Italian race gets off to a very fast and aggressive start and it will take time for the break to be formed. The break is likely to be made up of continental riders but will be firmly controlled by Southeast, Lampre-Merida, and Nippo-Vini Fantini who are all aiming for the win.

 

The race will be dominated by Lampre-Merida and the four Italian pro continental teams which are clearly the best teams here. Southeast, Androni and Nippo probably want a sprint finish but Bardiani and Lampre-Merida want the race to be hard to set their climbers up for a late attack.

 

We expect Lampre-Merida and Bardiani to try to make it as hard as possible on the climbs and then it will come down to the final passage of the key climb. Here the likes of Diego Ulissi, Edoardo Zardini and Manuel Bongiorno will try to take off and then it will be a matter of whether they can get away and keep the reduced peloton at bay.

 

There is little doubt that Ulissi is the best rider for this climb and he showed in Australia that his form is great. However, the headwind will make it hard for him to make a solo move. We doubt that he will be able to drop Francesco Gavazzi who is always strong at this time of the year and claims to be at a high level. He probably doesn’t want to bring the Androni rider to the finish and then the game of cat and mouse is inevitable. That makes it more likely that we will have a regrouping so we expect a reduced bunch sprint

 

Manuel Belletti is the defending champion and he will be very motivated to make it two in a row. He has proved that he can survive the climb and he specializes in reduced bunch sprints like this one. On paper, he is probably the fastest rider in the field and he has fast riders like Enrique Sanz, Filippo Pozzato and Andrea Fedi to do the lead-out. If it comes down to a reduced bunch sprint, he is the man to beat so he is our favourite.

 

Daniele Ratto has returned to Italy as he has signed a contract with Androni. He is tailor-made for the Italian one-day races as he can climb and sprint. In fact he sprinted better than ever in 2015 and he has done the Tour de San Luis so he has a bit of racing in his legs. He has to share sprinting duties with Davide Vigano and Gavazzi but we expect him to be the leader. In any case, he will have a great lead-out and that will make him a favourite in a sprint finish.

 

Nippo-Vini Fantini will be riding for Grega Bole who showed great form in San Luis. He is an excellent climber and will easily handle the final ascent. In fact, he will hope for a very selective race to get rid of most of the fast guys. He is fast in a sprint but rarely comes out on top. On the other hand, there aren’t many fast guys in this race so he will be one of the favourites.

 

If a break makes it to the finish, we will put our money on Francesco Gavazzi. He is always very good at this time of the year and claims to be in very good form. Among the best climbers, he is the fastest in a sprint finish.

 

Diego Ulissi is the best climber in the race and with the good form, he showed in Australia, he could ride away in the finale. He has a few options in the race as he can both win from a solo move, a sprint from a small breakaway or even from a reduced bunch sprint. However, there are several riders that are faster in a flat sprint and the headwind will make a solo move less likely.

 

Filippo Pozzato is making his Southeast debut here after doing the Tour de San Luis with the national team. He has won this kind of race in the past but it remains to be seen how his form is. In a bunch sprint, he will get his chance if Belletti is dropped but his best chance will be to follow the late moves. He is fast enough to beat the likes of Gavazzi and Ulissi in a sprint and if he is at his best he is strong enough to follow them.

 

Davide Vigano is the third Androni option in the sprint and he is the type of rider that can survive these climbs. However, he is just coming back from injury so we expect him to be doing the lead-out for Ratto.

 

Simone Consonni is a very fast sprinter and one of the greatest Italian talents but he has mainly been riding on the track so we doubt that he is strong enough at the moment to follow the best on the climbs.

 

Guillaume Boivin is making his Cycling Academy debut here and he seemed to get back on track in 2015. He is fast in a sprint and climbs well but his form is uncertain and he won’t have much team support. Daniel Schorn is another former professional with similar skills who will be eager to prove that he deserves to return to a higher level.

 

Andrea Fedi was very strong in the final part of the 2015 season and is a huge talent. He climbs well in this terrain and can finish it off in a sprint.

 

Finally, Eduardo Grosu deserves a mention. The Nippo-Vini Fantini sprinter is very fast but has lacked a bit of endurance. However, he is constantly getting stronger. We doubt that he will be there in the finale but if he is, he is definitely fast enough to win.

 

***** Manuel Belletti

**** Daniele Ratto, Grega Bole

*** Francesco Gavazzi, Diego Ulissi, Filippo Pozzato

** Davide Vigano, Simone Consonni, Guillaume Boivin, Daniel Schorn, Andrea Fedi, Eduard Grosu

* Manuele Mori, Stefan Schumacher, Edoardo Zardini, Manuel Bongiorno, Gianfranco Zilioli