Racing in Switzerland is almost exclusively about stage racing but the country has one major one-day race on the calendar. The hilly GP Kanton Aargau comes at the perfect time of the year as a warm-up race for the Tour de Suisse which kicks off just two days later, and is traditionally a great chance for the strong sprinters and classics riders who often have so many opportunities to show themselves in the national tour.

 

The high mountains rarely feature in one-day races and so it is only fitting that Switzerland, one of the most mountainous countries in Europe, has always focused more on stage racing than on one-day racing. Despite being relatively small, the country has no less than two weeklong stage races on the WorldTour calendar, the Tours de Suisse and Romandie, which is a true indication of its legacy as one of the traditional key countries in cycling.

 

However, Switzerland is not only about the high mountains. The northern part of the country offers very exciting terrain even though it has no big climbs. There’s barely a metre of flat in this area and so it is no surprise that it is a popular place for many cyclo-tourists. It’s also the perfect terrain for difficult one-day races and the few single-day events in the country have mostly been held here.

 

The Meisterschaft von Zürich was once one of the biggest autumn classics and was a great example of the kind of racing that the area can offer. Unfortunately, that race has now disappeared and this leaves just one major one-day race on the UCI calendar. Apart from the smaller GP Lugano which is held in February, the GP Kanton Aargau is now the only UCI race in Switzerland that is allowed to invite WorldTour races.

 

However, the race is a prestigious one and its position on the calendar is perfect. Its status is reflected in the fact that it’s a 1.HC race in the international hierarchy. It is held just two days before the start of the Tour de Suisse and that makes it increasingly popular. For many riders, the Swiss stage race is the first race following a long break from racing and the GP Kanton Aargau offers a chance to get one race day in the legs before the start of the national tour. Furthermore, it is great preparation for the nine-day race which often spends around half of the time in the hilly terrain in the northern part of the country. This has made it a great race for strong sprinters and classics riders who always have opportunities in abundance and the GP Kanton Aargau can be regarded as the best preparation for the lumpy stages of the biggest Swiss race.

 

GP Kantan Aargau was first held in 1964 when Jan Lauwers won the first edition.  Since then it has been held every year and it has always been a big international event. In fact the first Swiss winner only came in 1981 when Daniel Gisiger came out on top and in fact only 10 editions have been won by a local rider. The emergence of Michael Albasini as one of the best classics riders in the world has largely contributed to the home country’s tally as the strong Swiss is tailor-made for the hilly course and has won two of the last five editions.

 

The race is the highlight of the Gippinger Radsporttage which is a cycling festival held in early June. It is a circuit race that takes place on a lumpy circuit which is perfect for strong sprinters and classics rides. This is reflected in the recent list of winners which includes riders like Albasini, Simon Geschke, Sergey Lagutin and last year’s winner Alexander Kristoff who all have a solid sprint after a tough day in difficult terrain.

 

The course

Many one-day races vary the course from year to year but there have never really been much room for experiments at Switzerland’s biggest one-day race. For several years, it has been held on the same 12.1km circuit but for 2016, things will change. As always, the race is a circuit race but for this year’s edition, the circuit has been completely redesigned.

 

The new circuit is 18.87km long and will be covered 10 times for a total distance of 188.7km. It starts and finishes in Leuggern close to Gippingen and it is pretty similar to the previous one as it has a climb in the first part and a mainly flat second part. After one kilometre of flat riding, the riders will hit the small climb which averages 3.9% over 2.4km. The top comes with 16.5km to go and after a short flat section, it leads to a long gradual descent after the riders have turned around to head back up north.

 

With around 5km to go, the riders will reach the northernmost point of the circuit and then they will again turn around to head along flat roads back towards the finish. There are no major technical challenges as the riders will follow winding roads that has a final light turn at the flamme rouge. However, there’s a nasty sting in the tail as the final 500m are uphill at around 5%.

 

 

 

The favourites

A few years ago, a small group always managed to make it to the finish in the GP Kanton Aargau and it never came down to a reduced bunch sprint. However, things have changed in the last two years. Both editions have been decided in sprints and nowadays it seems that more teams go into the race with a sprinter as their leader. That has made the race more controlled and has ensured that the fast guys have had their say.

 

This year the route change will make it even more likely that we will get a sprint. The distance from the top of the final climb to the finish is much longer and with a longer circuit and fewer laps, the total amount of climbing will be smaller. Overall the race should become a bit easier and it will be harder for the attackers to make a difference.

 

Furthermore, most teams have a fast finisher so if they miss the break that’s likely to go clear in the finale, they will work to bring it back together. Most notably, the very strong Trek team will go all out for a bunch sprint victory with Giacomo Nizzolo and they seem to have the firepower to control the race.

 

What can change the outcome is the weather. Thursday is forecasted to be rainy which will make the race a bit harder. However, there will barely be any wind and even though it will mainly be a crosswind, it will do nothing to split the field. It won’t be cold either so only the wet roads will make it a bit more challenging.

 

Overall we expect the race to come down to a bunch sprint but with a solid amount of climbing, you still need to have pretty good climbing legs to be there in the end. However, all the sprinters in the race know how to handle this kind of terrain so most of them should be there at the finish. Furthermore, it is wort remembering that the finish is new and the sprint is slightly uphill. This will definitely play a role if it comes down to a battle between the fast guys.

 

With a bunch sprint on the cards, Giacomo Nizzolo stands out as the favourite. The Italian had a great Giro d’Italia as he won the points jersey for the second year in a row and proved that he was the fastest when the two big Germans Kittel and Greipel had left the race. However, the stage win eluded him again and especially the relegation in the final stage left him with lots of frustration.

 

However, that disappointment will only have made him more motivated for this race. He ended the Giro in very good condition as he proved his speed in the sprints and did really well on the climbs. This is the kind of race that suits him down to the ground as he is a better climber than most sprinters and likes an uphill finish. Furthermore, he is supported by a formidable team that is led by Fabian Cancellara.

 

He doesn’t have a real lead-out here and this will be the biggest challenge. However, Nizzolo is a master in positioning himself and that is what makes him so consistent in the sprints. If he gets a clear run to the line, we doubt that anyone will be able to beat him so he is our favourite for the win.

 

His biggest rival is likely to be Kenny Dehaes. The Belgian is in outstanding form at the moment as he won two races in May. Furthermore, he would probably have won the uphill sprint on stage 1 of the Belgium Tour if he had not been slowed down by a crash. However, Dehaes is not a climber and this course may be a bit too tough for him. We wouldn’t give him many chances on the previous course but with the route modifications, he has a much better chance. He has strong riders like Marco Marcato, Jerome Baugnies and Gaetan Bille for the lead-out and that’s a big disadvantage. He is one of the select few with the speed to beat Nizzolo.

 

When it comes to pure speed, Caleb Ewan is probably the fastest. However, we are a bit uncertain about his role as Orica-GreenEDGE claim to be riding for double winner Michael Albasini. That makes it questionable whether Ewan will get his chance in a sprint. On the other hand, it would be stupid not to ride for the Australian if he can survive the climbs so if he is there at the finish, he should be given his chance. He likes an uphill sprint and will have a great lead-out man in Albasini. The main question is whether the course will be too hard for him but in the past he has survived harder climbs than this. Many riders benefit from riding a grand tour and even though he didn’t get to the finish of the Giro, he is likely to have become stronger. At least, he showed fine form in Luxembourg where he finished in the top 10 in the tough prologue.

 

If Ewan is not there, double winner Michael Albasini will take his chance. The Swiss has probably been stronger than ever before and now he is making his return to racing. He is not as fast as the likes of Nizzolo and Dehaes but in an uphill finish he has a much better chance. For him to win, however, the race has to be hard so that’s probably the tactic for Orica-GreenEDGE. Albasini may also join a late attack and if he makes it into the right group, he will be almost impossible to beat.

 

 

Uphill sprints are what Davide Cimolai really likes. Many will remember the impressive burst of speed he showed when he won a stage at last year’s Paris-Nice. This year he again showed that he can win sprints at the WorldTour level when he came out on top in Catalonia. He has just returned from Japan where he won a stage in the national tour so his form shouldn’t be too bad. In a flat sprint, he wouldn’t have many chances against Nizzolo but in his preferred finale you can never rule the Italian out.

 

Dimension Data are here with Kristian Sbaragli. The Italian is another sprinter who specializes in sprints afte tough races and he aims to make up for a frustrating Giro d’Italia where he was set back by illness. He is not as fast as Nizzolo but he has a big advantage as he will have Reinardt van Rensburg for the lead-out.

 

Androni have a three-pronged attack with Daniel Ratto, Davide Vigano and Francesco Gavazzi. The latter will probably try to attack while the former two will focus on a sprint. Vigano showed good form at the Boucles de la Mayenne but Ratto is probably the fastest. We expect Ratto to take his chance if he is there in the end while Vigano will be the back-up plan.

 

It has been a hard year for Andrea Pasqualon but he has finally found some form. He rode really well in Boucles de la Mayenne last week and he loves this kind of uphill sprint at the end of a hard race. He has proved that he can win sprints at this level.

 

Cannondale will be riding in support of Matti Breschel who has had a very bad start to the season. However, his form seems to be on the rise. Last week he rode to a solid top 10 at the Heistse Pijl and he is strong in an uphill sprint after a tough race. He can also follow the attacks and if he makes it into the right group he will be one of the fastest.

 

Finally, we will point to Yannick Martinez. The Frenchman is one of the most inconsistent riders in the peloton but now he seems to find his form. If that’s the case, he climbs better than most sprinters and he prefers an uphill sprint like this. His third place in the first stage of the Tour of Norway bodes well.

 

The field of sprinters also includes riders like Silvan Dillier, Maxime Daniel, Gediminas Bagdonas, Rasmus Guldhammer, Martin Elmiger, David Tanner, Ivan Savitskiy, Roman Maikin, Scott Thwaites, Michael Schwarzmann, Alberto Cecchin, Leonardo Duque and Benjamin Giraud.

 

Riders that have the potential to attack and prevent a bunch sprint include Albasini, Breschel, Rasmus Guldhammer, Alex Kirsch, Jarlinson Pantano, Marco Marcato, Lieuwe Westra, Lars Boom, David Tanner, Francesco Gavazzi, Eliot Lietaer, Marco Marcato, Danilo Wyss, Gaetan Bille, Stefan Küng, Samuel Sanchez, Nino Schurter and Sergei Chernetskii.

 

***** Giacomo Nizzolo

**** Kenny Dehaes, Caleb Ewan

*** Michael Albasini, Davide Cimolai, Kristian Sbaragli,

** Daniele Ratto, Andrea Pasqualon, Matti Breschel, Davide Vigano, Yannick Martinez

* Silvan Dillier, Martin Elmiger, Marco Marcato, Francesco Gavazzi, Rasmus Guldhammer, Alex Kirsch, Jarlinson Pantano, David Tanner, Danilo Wyss, Stefan Küng, Sergei Chernetskii, Scott Thwaites, Michael Schwarzmann, Leonardo Duque, Nino Schurter