The Spanish cycling calendar is no longer what it once was but there is still one big block of races in early April. For the next ten days, there will be races in the country every day, with the Vuelta al Pais Vasco being the big highlight. Before the WorldTour race kicks off, the riders will get a chance to warm up their legs in two one-day races, with the hilly GP Miguel Indurain being the perfect test of form for next week’s big race in the Basque Country.

In the last century, the Spanish calendar was loaded with stage races in the spring, making it possible to spend almost the entire first part of the season racing on the Iberian Peninsula. However, the economic crisis has taken its toll and nowadays there are barely any races left.

Unsurprisingly, most of the surviving races are held in the cycling-mad region of the Basque Country which has a series of one-day races in the late summer, culminating with the Clasica San Sebastian. However, the biggest event is the Vuelta al Pais Vasco in April as the regional tour is both one of the most important WorldTour stage races in the spring and they most important event in the biggest racing block on the Spanish calendar.

The stage race features prominently in the middle of the block before Klasika Amorebieta will end things next Sunday. This weekend it will kick off with a pair of one-day races that offer both the fast finishers and the climbers a chance to test their form before the big race next week. While the sprinters will be going for glory in Sunday’s Vuelta a la Rioja, the climbers and puncheurs will be chasing victory in Saturday’s GP Miguel Indurain which is traditionally the key indicator of form for the Vuelta al Pais Vasco.

The GP Miguel Indirain was first held in 1951 but it was only a local race. In 1998, it was rebranded after the five-time Tour de France winner and in 2005 it became a 1.1 event on the UCI Europe Tour. In the past it has even been a 1.HC event but since 2013 it has been downgraded to 1.1 status. Nonetheless, it is a prestigious race with an impressive list of winners.’

The race doesn’t take place in the Basque Country but is held in the city of Estella in the Navarra region. It finishes with the climb to the Basilica de Puy and so is perfect event for puncheurs and Ardennes specialists who find the hilly terrain and the punchy uphill sprint to their liking. This is reflected in the recent winners that include riders like Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez, Samuel Sanchez, Daniel Moreno, Rinaldo Nocentini and Fabian Wegmann who are all specialists in hilly one-day races. Very often the key contenders from this race go on to play leading roles in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco a few days later.

Last year Angel Vicioso took his second win in the event after he had escaped with the Movistar pair of Ion Izagirre and Benat Intxausti whom he beat in the sprint.

The course

The 191.1km starts in Estella and finishes at the Basilica de Puy in the same city. The first part of the race consists of a relatively flat 72.5km circuit. Having returned to Estella, the riders take on a smaller 28.1km circuit that includes the category 2 Alto Eraul (3.94km, 4%). The second passage of Estella signals the start of a harder 62.8km circuit that includes the category 1 Alto Guiguillano (10.6km, 2.8%) and the category 2 Alto de Lezaun (3.9km, 5.5%) in the second half.

With 27.7km to go, the riders are back at the finish and they now do almost a full lap of the second circuit again. This means that they will again go up the Alto Eraul, reaching the summit just 9.4km from the finish. Having returned to Estella, they will make a deviation from the usual approach to the city. This time they will head to the final climb up to the Basilica de Puy. It’s a short 700m uphill drag to the line that averages 8.41% and has a relatively steep middle part before it levels out near the top.

Compared to last year, the course is largely unchanged.

The weather

There are no guarantees for good weather conditions in this part of Spain but on Saturday the riders will have lovely conditions. It will be sunny day with a maximum temperature of 16 degrees. There will be a moderate wind from a southeasterly direction which means that the riders will have all kinds of wind directions during the race. In the finale, it will be a headwind on the Alto Eraul and a headwind on the descent to the bottom of the final climb where the riders will mainly have a crosswind.

The favourites

GP Miguel Indurain is mostly decided in an uphill sprint for the puncheurs but the late climb of Alto Eraul has often come into play. It may not be the hardest climb but very often a strong group of climbers have gone clear at this point. The peloton has often had a large number of continental teams and if the key teams all feel confident in their chances when a break takes off in the finale, they have often been able to stay away.

This year there are five WorldTour teams in the field and they all have very good winner candidates. They all have a puncheur that can finish it off in an uphill sprint and they all have some less explosive climbers that will be ready to grab the opportunity by attacking from a bit further out. If the combination of riders is right, there is chance that a small group will stay away as it happened last year but it could also be decided in an uphill dash to the line.

A key rider in the race is Michael Matthews. The Australian is able to win this kind of sprint on a 700m uphill drag and most of the other teams don’t want him to be fresh at the finish. We can expect Katusha, Sky and Movistar to try to make the race hard already on the early climbs as they want to get rid of the fast sprinter. They may even launch attacks from further out and we will definitely see some moves on the Alto Eraul.

Much will depend on what kind of group will get clear in the finale. Orica-GreenEDGE want an uphill sprint but don’t have a strong team to control things. They have Adam Yates to cover the moves so if he is there with a couple of riders from Katusha, Sky and Movistar, there is a big chance that they will stay away. No other team will be focusing 100% on a sprint finish and this means that a group has a pretty big chance.

A rider who can win from both scenarios is Sergio Henao. The Colombian finally seems to be back at his best level after his injury-marred 2014 season. He was already at a solid level in 2015 but he seemed to lack the strength at the end of the long races. This year he was already very strong at the Tour Down Under but it was his European debut at Paris-Nice which really underlined his class. Henao was extremely strong on the climbs and saved the race for Geraint Thomas on the final stage. If he hadn’t been working for his leader, there is a very big chance that he would have won the uphill sprint in the queen stage.

Henao is gearing up for the Vuelta al Pais Vasco which is probably the race that suits him the best. There is little doubt that he is close to his best form. He would have preferred a steeper finishing climb and this one may be a bit too easy for him. However, he is still very powerful in an uphill sprint and he seems to be the in-form rider at the moment. Furthermore, he can attack from a bit further out and if he is in the right group, there is a big chance that he will be the fastest. We will put our money on Henao to win the race.

Movistar are here without Alejandro Valverde but they still have a former winner of the race. Daniel Moreno is perfectly suited to this kind of uphill sprint and so it is no mystery that he has already come out on top once. He won’t get many chances to ride for himself in 2016 but this is a rare opportunity to go for some personal glory. He hasn’t been in great form yet but like everybody else he never got the chance to show what he could really do at Tirreno-Adriatico. In a flat sprint, he is faster than Henao and on this kind of relatively short climb, he should usually also be faster than the Colombian. Furthermore, he has the strength to attack from a bit further out so like Henao he can win from every scenario.

As said, it will be hard to keep it together for an uphill sprint but if it comes down to the fastest legs on the final climb, Michael Matthews will be a contender. The Australian may be known as a sprinter but he is actually an excellent climber. He has won a very similar uphill sprint at the Vuelta and he was able to match Philippe Gilbert on the Cauberg at the Amstel Gold Race. This climb is a lot easier so he will be very hard to beat in an uphill dash to the line.

The challenge for Matthews will be to survive until the end. The climbs are not very hard but the combination makes it a tough day in the saddle. He is surrounded by strong climbers who will all try to make it hard for him. Furthermore, his team isn’t really strong enough to control things so he needs a bit of luck for things to be decided in a sprint. However, if that’s the scenario, he will be hard to beat in this kidn of finish.

Tom-Jelte Slagter also loves these uphill sprints and he will be the clear Cannondale leader. The Dutchman had an injury-plagued 2015 season but found his legs at the end of the year where he dominated the summit finishes at the Tour of Alberta. This year he has already won an uphill finale at the Tour du Haut-Var but he has been riding very inconsistently until now. It remains to be seen whether he has improved his level sufficiently to win this race but if he is at his Alberta level, he will be one of the favourites in both an uphill sprint and in a late breakaway.

Movistar have so many cards to play that almost every rider can go on the attack. Jesus Herrada is another rider who is really suited to this kind of finish. He has been better than ever in 2016 as he rode impressively in Valencia and he was on track for a great ride at Paris-Nice until a mechanical took him out of contention. He has the power to join a late breakaway and can also take his chance in an uphill sprint.

Orica-GreenEDGE will not be all about Matthews. Adam Yates will be there to cover the attacks and his win in San Sebastian proves that he has what it takes to prevail in a race like this. Nobody knows how far he can get in the hilly one-day races but his potential seems to be unlimited. He has not been in his best form yet but he never got the chance to see what he can do in Tirreno-Adriatico. He has a decent punch in an uphill sprint and could be the fastest from a small breakaway.

Joaquim Rodriguez is a former winner of this race but the Spaniard isn’t in his best form. Hopefully, he has improved since Catalunya but there is probably still some work to do for the Spanish star. He would have preferred the uphill sprint to be steeper but he is still competitive in this kind of finish. If he is not at his best, he may ride in support of Sergei Chernetskii or defending champion Angel Vicioso who are both fast but we doubt that they will be able to beat the best here.

The field is loaded with strong climbers who will try to attack from afar. Simon Spilak has won this race by going on the attack and he will probably try to do so again. Ion Izagirre, Mikel Landa, Hgh Carthy, Nairo Quintana and Giovanni Visconti will all take their chances and the latter even has the skills to mix it up in a sprint.

Finally, we will point to the Caja Rural pair of Pello Bilbao and Jose Goncalves who are both fast in an uphill sprint. Goncalves is one of the biggest talents for this kind of uphill sprint but he still hasn’t proved to be in race-winning condition.

***** Sergio Henao

**** Michael Matthews, Daniel Moreno

*** Tom-Jelte Slagter, Jesus Herrada, Adam Yates

**Joaquim Rodriguez, Jose Goncalves, Giovanni Visconti, Pello Bilbao, Ion Izagirre

* Simon Spilak, Nairo Quintana, Sergey Chernetskii, Angel Vicioso, Mikel Landa, Hugh Carthy