As one of cycling’s key countries, Belgium has a rich schedule of races that are not on the UCI calendar but this year one of the old races has made the jump to become an international race. The Heistse Pijl has been categorized as a 1.1 race on the UCI Europe Tour and in 2016, one of the traditional races on the Belgian calendar will welcome international stars and offer valuable UCI points for the first time.

In addition to its many UCI races, Belgium has a big scene of national races. Due to its legacy as one of cycling’s historic key countries, the calendar is loaded with road races and kermesses that give amateurs a chance to show themselves and occasionally measure themselves against some of the professional stars.

The one-day race Heistse Pijl is one of those events. It was first held in 1947 and was an annual race until 1983. Back then, it disappeared from the calendar but it was revived in 2008 as part of the “1000 jaar Heist) celebration.

The race has not been on the UCI calendar but that has not prevented some of the Belgian stars from attending. After Gert Omloop won in 2008, the recent winners are Greg Van Avermaet, Aidis Kruopis, Björn Leukemans, Maxime Vantomme, Tom Boonen (twice) and Sander Armee which clearly tells that the race is more than just an amateur event. Like the recent kermesse in Gullegem, it is a fixed part of the calendar for both the major Belgian teams Etixx-QuickStep and Lotto Soudal.

This year the race will gain even more prestige as it has been added to the UCI calendar. The organizers have applied for a spot on the UCI Europe Tour and their application has been accepted. This year the race will be a 1.1 event which means that they can now attract foreign WorldTour teams. They have a had a successful hunt for big teams as both Cannondale and LottoNL-Jumbo will join forces with Etixx-QuickStep and Lotto Soudal to form a quartet of WorldTour teams. If one adds five pro continental teams and 11 continental teams, it is clear that the line-up has been boosted significantly.

In the past, the race was often for the sprinters as the key climb of Heist-op-den-Berg was located at the beginning of the circuit that made up the race. In 2012, however, the course was changed as the climb now featured twice in every lap and another climbs was also added to the circuit. With the finish line coming in between those two climbs, the organizers hoped for a more selective race and their goals have partly been achieved. However, the stronger line-up for 2016 is likely to make the race less selective and it remains to be seen what impact more professional teams will have on what is a classic Belgian one-day race.

The course

The 2016 Heistse Pijl will be held on a 195.2km course that will bring the riders fromTurnhout to Heist-op-den-Berg. The first 55.2km will bring the riders along mainly flat roads from the start to the finish, with the main challenges being two small pave sectors. The rest of the race consists of 8 laps of a 17.5km circuit that includes two smaller climbs and a flat finale.

The weather

Like every Belgian one-day race, Heistse Pijl will be heavily influenced by the weather. Saturday to be hot as the maximum temperature will be 25 degrees but there is a 75% chance of rain in the afternoon. There will only be a light wind from a northeasterly direction which means that the riders will mainly have a tailwind in the first part of the race and mainly a tail- or a headwind on the circuit.

The favourites

As said, Heitste Pijl once suited the sprinters but after the course was changed, it has become a race for attackers. However, things are likely to change again in 2016. The stronger field will make the race much more controlled and it will be much harder to make a difference. Several teams go into the race with a sprint line-up and they will be working to get a bunch sprint.

Etixx-QuickStep have the key to the race and can potentially change the outcome. Like so often before, the Belgian super team have the strongest line-up and if they want to make the race hard, they have the power to do so. However, they are here with Fernando Gaviria and so they will probably be comfortable with the sprint scenario. They may still try to join the moves but we doubt that they will go all out to split the race.

Lotto Soudal don’t have a sprinter for this race so they will ride aggressively. With the likes of Tiesj Benoot, Tim Wellens, Sean De Bie, Pim Ligthart, Maxime Monfort and Jurgen Roelandts, they have a great team to try to split things. However, it won’t be easy for them to wreak havoc if teams like Etixx-QuickStep, Cannondale and LottoNL-Jumbo are all going for a bunch sprint. On the other, it’s not impossible if they can make it into a group that contains riders from Etixx-QuickStep and LottoNL-Jumbo.

In every Belgian race, the weather plays a big role but there won’t be much wind on Saturday. This also favours the sprinters. The rain will make things harder but with virtually no wind, we doubt that the race will split up. Hence, we put our money on a bunch sprint but it can’t be ruled out that a group of classics riders will decide the race.

If it comes down to a bunch sprint, Fernando Gaviria must be the favourite. An injury prevented him from lining up in Frankfurt, Dunkirk and California so he is far from being in his best condition. However, when he last returned from injury in February, he was absolutely flying right from the start and as always it is very hard to keep such a huge talent away from a decent form. We don’t expect Gaviria to be even close to 100% but in what is likely to be a rather easy race, he should definitely be competitive.

Gaviria has proved that he is the biggest sprint talent in the world and has made riders like Greipel and Cavendish look like juniors in the past. He has proved his endurance by being up there at Milan-Sanremo and the cobbled classics in his neo-pro season and he is a much better climber than most. Hence, he should benefit from this kind of lumpy circuit and even though the harder races seem to cost him some speed, this race should be so easy that it won’t be much of a challenge. Furthermore, he can count on a solid lead-out train that is led by Tom Boonen and his vast experience. If they can guide Gaviria into position and it all comes down to a matter of speed, Gaviria will be hard to beat.

His biggest rival is likely to be Dylan Groenewegen. The Ducthman has had a marvelous first year at the WorldTour level and has proved that he is one of the best sprinters in the world. Most recently he was the fastest at the Tour de Yorkshire where he finished in the top 2 in the first two stages and in California he did a very impressive sprint on stage 1 where he hit out in the headwind a bit too early.

Now he is back in Europe and he really likes these hilly circuits. He has done well in similar one-day races this year so the climbs should be no challenge. His biggest advantage is his great lead-out train that has proved its class in both California and Yorkshire. If the can again dominate the finale, it won’t be easy to beat Groenewegen.

The in-form sprinter at the moment is Kenny Dehaes. After a bad 2015 season and injury-marred start to the year, Dehaes has been flying recently. He won the final stages in both Dunkirk and Picardie and he was probably the fastest rider in the bunch sprint on the first stage of the Belgium Tour. His main disadvantage is that Wanty only have five riders in the race so they can’t take much initiative. However, Dehaes has lots of experience in the sprints and can still rely on Tom Devriendt and Robin Stenuit for the lead-out.

When it comes to pure speed, Wouter Wippert is one of the fastest. He has proved that on several occasions in the US where he doesn’t have to be too concerned with positioning. That aspect has been a challenge on the narrower roads in Europe and the Cannondale train hasn’t been working well. Furthermore, the race could easily take the sting out of his legs. However, if it’s not too selective and he finds an opening in the finale, he has the speed to win.

If Gaviria is not ready yet, Etixx-QuickStep will look to two-time winner Tom Boonen. The Belgian can both play his cards in a sprint or by going on the attack on the circuit. He seemed to be riding well in California and he likes this kind of lumpy circuit. Last year he proved that he still has the speed to win sprints at this level so if he can finally get the positioning right, he can win this race from every scenario.

Woompot are here with Raymond Kreder who was flying at the start of the year. The Dutchman was agonizingly close to victory in several sprints but never got everything right. He has not been at the same level recently but he is still one of the fastest here. Furthermore, he is surrounded by lots of fast riders for the lead-out.

Baptiste Planckaert is enjoying a bit of a breakthrough season and he will be eager to continue his success here. The Belgian is one of the most consistent sprinters and is up there in every sprint. He prefers a hard and selective race as he is not fast enough to win a real bunch sprint. However, if it comes down to a reduced sprint, he could very well be the fastest.

Veranda’s Willems are here without Timothy Dupont so they will be riding for an in-form Aidis Kruopis who won four races in May. The Lithuanian is still very fast but the race can’t be too hard if he wants to have a chance. Furthermore, he is not very good at positioning.

Lotto Soudal will be going for Jurgen Roelandts in a sprint but the Belgian needs a really hard race to win. His best chance is probably to join a breakaway. Bert Van Lerberghe is another solid sprint candidate but he is not fast enough to win.

If the race becomes hard, look out for riders like Tiesj Benoot, Roelandts, Sep Vanmarcke, Wout Van Aert, Paul Martens, Matti Breschel, Patrick Bevin, Maciej Paterski, Sean De Bie, Pim Ligthart, Yves Lampaert and Michel Kreder who are all strong enough to make it into a break and fast enough to win from a small group.

The list of sprinters also includes Grzegorz Stepniak, Eryk Laton, Andre Looij, Barry Markus, Enrique Sanz, Joeri Stallaert, Frederique Robert, Jelle Mannaerts and Justin Jules.

***** Fernando Gaviria

**** Dylan Groenewegen, Kenny Dehaes

*** Wouter Wippert, Tom Boonen, Raymond Kreder, Baptiste Planckaert

** Aidis Kruopis, Jurgen Roelandts, Tiesj Benoot, Sep Vanmarcke, Wout Van Aert

* Bert Van Lerberghe, Paul Martens, Matti Breschel, Patrick Bevin, Maciej Paterski, Sean De Bie, Pim Ligthart, Yves Lampaert, Michel Kreder, Justin Jules, Joeri Stallaert