Omloop Het Nieuwsblad was an early teaser but the real classics season will kick off this coming Saturday when Milan-Sanremo will take place. As one of only five monuments and the longest race on the cycling calendar, it is one of the most prestigious races and with its unique course, it has always been one of the few big races that both sprinters and classics specialists can vie for. After big plans to significantly alter the nature of the race have been abandoned, the race is now back to its traditional format and the historical finish on the Via Roma which only makes a win in La Primavera even more coveted. Everybody dreams about raising their arms on the scene where Eddy Merckx took seven wins in the classic that is probably the most difficult to win.

 

Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico signaled the arrival of spring but stage races are not what characterizes this part of the year. Spring is intimately connected with one-day racing and while the two opening European WorldTour races are both part of an intriguing and fascinating stage race schedule for the first part of the season, the early months of the season are mainly about the classics. Only a few stage race specialists have their major highlights in this part of the season but for the one-day riders, this is the most important part of the year.

 

Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne offered the first real chance for the riders to test their form in a race that really mattered but they were still mainly part of the preparation. On Saturday, the warm-up phase has come to an end. There are no longer any excuses: the classics specialists need to be firing on all cylinders in the first big race of the year, Milan-Sanremo.

 

The spring classics season may mostly be taking place in Northern Europe but it all kicks off under - usually - warmer conditions in what is one of the two Italian monuments. The Italian one-day scene is extremely rich, with several prestigious, legendary races, but at the top of the pinnacle, Milan-Sanremo and Il Lombardia play a special role. As the only truly international one-day races in the country, the pair of races are part of cycling's five monuments and have the honour of opening and ending the classics year respectively (even though a recent calendar change means that Il Lombardia is no longer the final big one-day race on the schedule).

 

Known also as La Primavera and La Classicissima, Milan-Sanremo has a special place in the history of cycling. First held in 1907, this year's edition will be the 107th, and the long travel from the city of Milan to the sea and all the way along the Mediterranean coast has been conquered by most of cycling's biggest names.

 

Right from the beginning, the race was not just an Italian affair as the first winner was Frenchman Lucien Petit-Breton and it wasn't until 1909 that an Italian finally conquered the race, with Luigi Ganna having the honour of being the first home winner. Nonetheless, the early years were dominated by Italians, with Costante Girardengo winning 6 times, Gino Bartali taking 4 wins, and Fausto Coppi reaching Sanremo first on three occasions.

 

The dominant figure in the race's history, however, is Eddy Merckx who took no less than 7 wins from 1966 to 1976 as part of a 30-year run where Italians only won three editions. In recent years, the Italians have again managed to play a more prominent role in what is arguably their biggest one-day race but since Filippo Pozzato's 2006 win, the home country has left the race empty-handed.

 

The names of many classics are linked to their history as they are made up of the names of the start and finishing cities. Due to the shorter distances of modern-day cycling, however, most races no longer live up to their names as the point of departure has often been moved closer to the finish.

 

Milan-Sanremo is one of the very few exceptions that still honour tradition by actually travelling between the two cities that make up its name. The race still follows its traditional route from Milan and its flat terrain over the Passo del Turchino to the rugged Mediterranean coast that brings the riders all the way to Sanremo. Several small digressions from the direct route send the riders up the many climbs along the coast, making for some hard challenges amidst the beautiful scenery. This keeping with tradition means that the race is the longest on the cycling calendar, with this year's edition being 291km long.

 

This traditional design makes the race a unique affair. With the race being mostly flat, it is no wonder that the race suits the sprinters. The many late climbs, however, offer the classics specialists and the puncheurs the perfect launch pads for attacks and the final challenges, the legendary Cipressa and Poggio, are sufficiently close to the finish for escapees to make it all the way to the end.

 

No other major classic has that kind of appeal to those two types of riders. While Il Lombardia and Liege-Bastogne-Liege are heavily loaded with climbs, the cobbles in the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix make those races way too hard for the traditional sprinters. The selective nature of those four monuments make the list of potential winners a very small one but in Sanremo, unpredictability rules and a lot more riders can realistically vie for success. The nature of the race is perfectly reflected in its traditional end scenario when the reduced bunch tries to peg back the break that usually goes clear on Poggio in time to set up a bunch sprint. On the list of classics for the sprinters, the race is only joined by Gent-Wevelgem, Scheldeprijs, Paris-Tours, and Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne and among those it is by far the biggest one.

 

In 2008, the organizers introduced the new Le Manie climb and even though it was located far from the finish, it tipped the balance away from the sprinters. As it is far tougher than the climbs that have traditionally been on the course, it became a much harder affair for the sprinters and this is reflected in the winner's list. In the years with Le Manie, only the 2009 and 2010 editions were decided by a larger bunch while Fabian Cancellara, Matthew Goss, Simon Gerrans, and Gerald Ciolek all took wins from small groups or solo victories.

 

Le Manie was not enough for the organizers who wanted to make the race more attractive to the climbers. For the 2014 edition, they planned to introduce the new Pompeiana climb in between Cipressa and Poggio. This was expected to rule out the fast finishers and Mark Cavendish and André Greipel were some of the sprinters who decided against doing the revamped race. Instead, climbers like Vincenzo Nibali, Chris Froome, and Alejandro Valverde planned to make the race one of their early-season targets.

 

Landslides saved the sprinters as local authorities deemed the descent from the Pompeiana unsafe, meaning that RCS had to make the late decision to remove the climb. This prompted Cavendish and Greipel to change their minds while Valverde and Froome decided against doing the race. As it had always been the plan to remove Le Manie, the 2014 course suddenly changed from being the hardest ever to becoming the easiest since 2007.

 

RCS insisted that the Pompeiana will be included in future editions and the 2014 race was expected to be the final chance for the sprinters. However, the climb is still not deemed safe enough to include in the race and RCS seems to have skipped the idea. As Le Manie is not back on the course either, the race is suddenly back to its historical format where the Turchino pass, the three small capi climbs, Cipressa and Poggio are the main challenges.

 

Last year the main novelty was the fact that the race returned to its historical finish on Via Roma. The distances from the top of the Poggio to the finish is now reduced by 1km and this should make it easier for later attackers to stay away. Nonetheless, the change has been praised by the sprinters who all dream about winning the race on the site that has historically characterized the race and Milan-Sanremo is now completely back to the course that was used for many years.

 

Last year’s edition was the first chance for the sprinters to test themselves on Via Roma as none of the attacks on the Poggio climb stuck. Hence, it was a rather big group that reached the top and descended to the finish in Sanremo. Luca Paolini did a massive job to keep things under control for defending champion Alexander Kristoff but he run out of gas a bit too early. Kristoff launched a long sprint and looked like he would make it two in a row until John Degenkolb came around to claim what would be one of two monument wins in 2015, with Michael Matthews completing the podium. Unfortunately, his training crash has ruled Degenkolb out of the 2016 edition but Kristoff and Matthews will both be among the favourites to claim victory in the 107th edition of the longest race on the calendar.

 

The course

As said, Milan-Sanremo is one of the few races to live up to its name, in the sense that it actually starts in Milan and ends in Sanremo. With both the Pompeiana and Le Manie out, the race is back to the very traditional format that it has had in most of its recent history and there won't be any surprises on the 291km stretch from the Po Valley to Sanremo on the Cote d'Azur. The race can be expected to follow the traditional script that has made Sanremo a treasured part of cycling history and offered some very exciting racing in the past. The race is will follow an almost unchanged route compared to last year, with a few minor modifications reducing the distance from 293km to 291km.

 

The race will have its usual point of departure on Piazza Sempione in the centre of Milan and from there, the riders will head in a southeastern direction towards the Mediterranean coast. Milan is located in the Po Valley where the roads are all dead flat. The first 139km consist of a long flat run that will only serve to accumulate fatigue in the riders' legs and allow the early break to take off.

 

Due to the distance, the early escapees have virtually no chance of making it to the end and they are often allowed to get a huge gap that easily exceeds the 10-minute mark.  The race starts to get serious when the peloton reaches the hills that run along the Mediterranean coast and the riders will have to tackle the Passo del Turchino before they can catch their first glimpse of the sea. That ascent leads to the highest point of the race at 532m above sea level but is not overly difficult. However, it is the time for the teams that want to rid themselves of the sprinters, to slowly up the tempo to make the race as tough as possible.

 

The Turchino Pass is followed by a fast descent that leads directly to the coastline a few kilometres west of Genova. As soon as the riders have reached the coastal road, they will turn right and the rest of the race is made up of a long travel along the sea, interspersed by small digressions that send them up some smaller climbs.

 

In recent years, the riders have done Le Manie in the first part of this long run but as said, that climb has now been taken out. Hence, the first 80km of the seaside trip is almost completely flat and there won't be any climbing until the riders reach the 240km mark. Nonetheless, it will be important for many teams to make sure that the pace is high as they cannot allow the sprinters to arrive too fresh at the bottom of the final ascents. Milan-Sanremo is always a long waiting game where it is all about the distance gradually making the riders tired.

 

The first tests are the three shorts Capi, Capo Mele, Capo Cervo, and Capo Berta that come in quick succession and are located at the 239.6, 244.7, and 252.6km marks respectively. It is usually around this time that the early break splits up and gradually gets caught while the teams with the classics specialist start to really make things hard. The climbs are never hard enough to launch attacks but the descents can be treacherous and like last year it is possible for a group to get clear in the downhill sections, especially if the roads are wet.

 

From the top of the Capo Berta, 38.4km remain. The first part is the short descent which precedes a flat run to the bottom of the Cipressa climb. This is where the real finale starts and positioning is of utmost importance for this short ascent. Hence, it will be a true war as the riders speed towards the bottom of the climb and from now on, there will be no chance to recover.

 

At 5.6km and with an average gradient of 4.1% and maximum of 9%, the Cipressa is an easy climb. The first 3.85km have a rather constant gradient of 4-5% but the final part is even easier with a 2.1% gradient. What makes the climb tough is the fact that it comes after 269.5km of racing. A small group usually gets clear on its slopes and they may use the technical descent to extend their advantage.

 

At the bottom of the descent, around 20km remain. The first 9.1km follow flat roads along the coast and at this point, the pace is always fierce. It is very hard for any escapees to stay clear and things are usually back together by the time, they reach the bottom of the Poggio 9.7km from the finish.

 

The race's landmark climb is 3.7km long and has an average gradient of 3.7% and a maximum of 8%. The first 2.06km has a gradient of 4.3% and is followed by the most difficult 5.6% section. Like the Cipressa, it gets easier at the top, with the final 700m averaging just 2.0%. This is the scene of the final attacks from the puncheurs, with a small group usually going clear over the top. The sprinters just have to hang on for dear life as they try to stay in contention.

 

The top comes 5.4km from the finish and is followed by an extremely technical descent, with several hairpin bends and many twists and turns. This is no place for the peloton to make an organized chase and any strong descenders in the front group may use this section to gain further ground.

 

The riders reach the coastal road 2.3km from the finish and from there the roads are flat all the way to the line. The urban roads are long and straight.  850m from the finish line there is a left-hand bend on a roundabout. The last bend, leading into the home straight, is 750m from the finish line. This final part is often a fierce pursuit between the peloton and the front group where it will be all about going full gas for the escapees while also taking care of the tactical game that has often spoiled the party for the attackers.

 

 

 

 

The weather

It is a well-known fact that the weather plays a huge role in the classics. Sunny and calm conditions usually make it much easier for the riders while wind and rain turn it into a survival game. Traditionally, Milan-Sanremo has had much better weather than the Northern classics but for some reason, the 2013, 2014 and 2015 editions have been some of the hardest yet. In 2013, the cold was unbearable and the riders had to get over the Turchino Pass in busses while it was raining all day in 2014. In 2015, the riders also had rain for most of the day.

 

This year the riders have had some pretty tough conditions at both Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico where stages had to be cancelled but the tides have changed for Milan-Sanremo. Saturday is forecasted to be a day of beautiful sunshine and a maximum temperature of 14 degrees in Sanremo.

 

At the start in Milan, there will only be a light wind from a southwesterly direction while will only have picked up very slightly when they reach the coast. At this point it will come from a southerly direction. As they get closer to Sanremo, it will pick up and at the finish there will be a moderate wind from a southwesterly direction. This means that the riders will have a headwind almost all day. It will be a crosswind up the Poggio and a headwind on the descent and the final flat section.

 

The favourites

With Pompeiana and Le Manie out, the race is back to a very traditional formula and even though many of the riders have only done the race once on this course, it has such a long history that everybody should know what to expect. At the same time, this route is the one that has made the Milan-Sanremo one of the most unpredictable races of the entire year, with a rather long list of possible scenarios and potential winners. The return to the Via Roma only makes the race even more open as the attackers have a better chance of staying away.

 

Nonetheless, history speaks for itself. While the race used his course in the 90s and 2000s, only Filippo Pozzato (2006), Paolo Bettini (2003), and Gabriele Colombo (1996) managed to take breakaway wins in an era when La Primavera was heavily dominated by bunch sprints. The current course may be long but the lack of climbing tips the balance towards the sprinters.

 

The weather always has a huge impact on the outcome in Sanremo and after three wet and cold editions, the riders will be back in the sunshine in 2016. That will definitely make the race a lot easier. More importantly, there will be a headwind all day. It won’t be windy but it will make for a slower race where it will be easier to follow wheels. Crucially, there will be a headwind after the top of the Poggio and this is clearly a big advantage for the sprinters.

 

We should be in for a rather predictable race scenario, with an early break going up the road before being caught back on the coastal road. It will be interesting to see which teams decide to lead the chase but we can expect Katusha, Tinkoff, Trek and maybe Orica-GreenEDGE to take the responsibility to bring back the early break. While the former team want the race to be as easy as possible, the latter two want to set a brisk pace, especially on the Passo del Turchino, to make things harder.

 

There are rarely any attacks on the Capis but we can expect the race to really start here. Tinkoff, Trek and BMC are very likely to go full gas on those three small climbs. With dry roads, we are unlikely to see splits on the descents like we did last year.

 

The real battle will start on the Cipressa but we may actually not see many attacks. In the last few years, most riders have preferred to keep their powder dry for the Poggio and instead it has been the case of the teams with the punchy classics riders asking their teams to set a brutal pace here. In 2014, only Vincenzo Nibali tried to escape and last year all the attempts were unsuccessful. This year Tinkoff, Trek and BMC may all try to apply a similar tactic and this will make it very hard for anyone to escape.

 

The flat section leading to the Poggio can always be tricky but with a headwind, it is not a day for long-distance moves. Like most years, it should all come down to the final climb. In the last two years, we have had strange scenarios on the Poggio. There have been very few attacks and no one has really managed to escape, with the bunch sprint never really having been in danger.

 

This year most of the riders that have an interest in preventing a sprint finish have shown great form. Greg Van Avermaet, Fabian Cancellara and Zdenek Stybar have been flying all year and Peter Sagan and Michael Matthews have both shown great condition. Sagan has always been able to go with the attacks and nowadays Matthews is able to do so too. There are lots of riders that will try to break the monotony and they have the form to do so.

 

The only team that really want a bunch sprint is Katusha but they don’t have the best team. Luca Paolini’s absence will be felt and Kristoff could find himself isolated in the finale. Simon Spilak has the climbing skills to be there and he has proved that he can handle the distance. Angel Vicioso looked strong in Tirreno-Adriatico and Marco Haller is constantly improving even though he has been far from his best in 2016. Sven Erik Bystrøm could be of valuable support but it remains to be seen whether he can handle the distance. It is less likely that Kristoff will be able to rely on his impressive lead-out man Jacopo Guarnieri.

 

Kristoff would have hoped for Degenkolb to be here as that would give him an ally in the chase. Etixx-QuickStep could become one of his friends. If Fernando Gaviria turns out to be able to handle the distance, the strong Belgians will go all in for a sprint finish and they will have strength in numbers.

 

Much will depend on the composition of the front group that could go clear on the Poggio. Will Matthews and Sagan go with the attacks or focus on a sprint? If Sagan’s there, history shows that no one wants to work with him but Matthews could be an ally as he is not afraid of a sprint against the world champion. Edvald Boasson Hagen has no fear either. Cancellara knows that he is unlikely to win a sprint so his only chance is to work. The same goes for Greg Van Avermaet who has gained a lot of confidence by beating Sagan in a couple of sprints. This year there is a bigger chance that a small group can actually work together.

 

On the other hand, the headwind is likely to play a big role in the race. It will make everything much easier and we can expect a bigger group than usual in the finale. This means that it will be harder to make a difference on the Poggio and stay away in the final part. Furthermore, there will be more domestiques for the teams that have missed the late moves. Hence, the most likely outcome is a third consecutive sprint finish from a bigger group that we have had in the last few years.

 

If that is the case, it is hard to argue against the fact that Alexander Kristoff will be the man to beat. The Norwegian has been in outstanding condition all year and already has 5 wins under his belt. He was flying already in Qatar where he won three stages and grabbed another two wins in Oman. He failed to win a stage in Paris-Nice but he looked stronger on the climbs than he did 12 months ago.

 

During the winter, Kristoff has worked a lot on his climbing as he hopes to be able to survive harder races. When you can win the Tour of Flanders, Cipressa and Poggio should be no challenge and there is very little doubt that Kristoff will be in the main group. Of course he won’t be able to go with the attacks but he will be the big favourite in a sprint.

 

Nonetheless, there are still faster riders than Kristoff but a sprint is different at the end of 300km. While most of the sprinters lose some power at the end of such a long and hard race, it doesn’t seem to be the case for the Norwegian. In fact, he is simply the king of the sprints in the monuments and he is very hard to beat at the end of a race of more than 250km. In 2013, he won the sprint for the minor placings in Milan-Sanremo, Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix and in 2014 he was simply in a class of his own in Sanremo while he also won the bunch sprint at the Worlds. Last year his sprint in Sanremo was very impressive and he only failed to win because he had been forced to start too early. There is no doubt that Kristoff is the best sprinter in the world at the end of a long, hard classic.

 

The main challenge for Kristoff will be to make sure that it comes down to a bunch sprint. As said, he won’t have much support in the finale and as Katusha are expected to work hard, he is unlikely to have any kind of lead-out. On the other hand, he doesn’t necessarily need one. Je is extremely good at positioning himself and has the power to do the long sprint that allows him not to get boxed in in the finale. If Spilak is there to control attacks and Haller steps up, the Austrian may even be there to set him up. With a sprint finish the likely outcome, Kristoff is the favourite.This makes Kristoff our favourite to take the win.

 

In 2013 and 2014, Peter Sagan entered this race as the overwhelming favourite but that’s no longer the case. However, the world champion is clearly much stronger than he was 12 months ago and he seems to be close to the level that made him such a dominant figure a few years ago. It started at last year’s Tour of California and since then he has been consistently riding at a very high level.

 

Sagan failed to win a stage at Tirreno-Adriatico but it was more due to a lack of team support than a lack of strength. He missed the teammates to control things in stages 2 and 4 where he easily won the sprints for the minor placings. Furthermore, he was impressively strong in stage 6 where only Van Avermaet’s tactic prevented him from winning the stage. Finally, he capped it off by doing an impressive time trial to nearly take the overall win.

 

There is no doubt that Sagan will be one of the strongest on the Poggio but it will be a difficult tactical situation to handle. Will he follow the attacks or will he focus on a sprint? If he’s not there, the cooperation will be smoother and there is a better chance that a break stays away. But if he spends some energy there, he is less likely to beat Kristoff in a sprint.

 

However, Sagan’s nature is to ride aggressively so we expect him to try to go with the best. As said, Matthews could be an ally in such a group as he is not afraid of a sprint and this may give him options. Furthermore, Oscar Gatto seems to be stronger than ever so he may even have a teammate who is able to ride aggressively too.

 

Sagan is not a pure sprinter, just like the likes of Matthews and Boasson Hagen, but on paper he is probably slightly faster than those two riders in a flat sprint. There is a big chance that he will be the fastest rider if a breakaway makes it. He will also have options in a bunch sprint as he has been sprinting really well during the last 12 months. He is clearly not as fast as Kristoff in a flat sprint but he is great at positioning himself. With riders like Gatto, Roman Kreuziger and Daniele Bennati, he is likely to have a few teammates to set him up and with his current speed, nothing will be impossible for the world champion.

 

Michael Matthews continues to amaze the cycling world with his versatile talent and he even had legitimate hopes of going for the overall win in Paris-Nice, his first race of the year. In the end, it became too tough for him but he proved that his form is outstanding and that he has stepped up another level. Already last year he followed the attacks on the Poggio and when you can go with Gilbert on the Cauberg in Amstel, no one is going to drop you in Milan-Sanremo.

 

Matthews is almost in the same situation as Sagan. He can both ride aggressively and wait for a sprint. Like Sagan, he will find it hard to beat Kristoff in a bunch kick so he will probably try to follow the moves. He is no pure sprinter but in a flat sprint, he and Sagan are almost on par. He may be slightly slower than the world champion but at the end of 300km, things are different. His third place from last year’s race and his second place at the Worlds prove that he only gets stronger at the end of a long and hard race. Furthermore, he sprinted excellently in Paris-Nice where he even managed to beat Bouhanni and Kristoff and even though the uphill finish in that stage favoured him, he seems to have more speed than in the past. Most importantly, he can expect to have Daryl Impey – one of the best lead-out men – at his side in the finale. That will give Matthews options in every race scenario.

 

In 2014 Nacer Bouhanni got his first taste of one of the big one-day races at the Worlds and here he proved that he can handle the long distances. He finished in the group that sprinted for 8th and took a solid 10th in the roads of Ponferrada. He confirmed that ability in his Sanremo debut 12 months ago where he made it into the lead group but messed it up in the sprint.

 

Bouhanni is very motivated for this race which is one of his biggest targets of the year. He proved his good form in Paris-Nice where he both rode strongly on the climbs and sprinted well. He doesn’t seem to have the speed that he had a few years ago but he seems to have become stronger. Compared to Kristoff, Sagan and Matthews, he may lose a bit more at the end of a long race but he will benefit from the fact that the headwind will make things easier. Furthermore, the Cofidis team is much stronger than it was in 2015 and he can expect to have Arnold Jeannesson, Julien Simon and maybe even outstanding lead-out man Christophe Laporte at his side. If Laporte is there, he could be delivered in the perfect position and he is probably the rider with the biggest chance to win a head-to-head battle with Kristoff.

 

The big joker for the race is Fernando Gaviria. The Etixx-QuickStep sprinter goes into the unknown as he has never done such a long race and nobody knows whether he will be able to handle that distance. However, neo-pros have done so in the past and Gaviria is one of the most talented in recent years. He can climb and there is little doubt that he is faster than almost everyone in a sprint.

 

If this had been a tough edition of Milan-Sanremo, it would have been difficult for Gaviria but the good weather conditions favour him. He climbs better than most of the sprinters and in a 200km race, he would definitely be able to survive. It remains to be seen whether he can still do so in a longer race and whether he can maintain his speed. However, if he is there, he can expect to have Tom Boonen and Matteo Trentin at his side to do the lead-out and then we doubt very much than anyone will be able to beat him.

 

Fabian Cancellara has an incredible record that has seen him finish on the podium in all the monuments he has completed since he was 17th in the 2010 Milan-Sanremo until the string was broken in last year’s La Primavera. That includes four consecutive podiums in Sanremo and that’s a pretty impressive performance by a non-sprinter.

 

This year Cancellara is flying and he seems to be at his best level for Sanremo for several years. He won Strade Bianche in impressive fashion and even though he claims not to have felt good in Tirreno, he crushed the opposition in the time trial. This year Cancellara has his best shot at victory since he won the race in 2008.

 

However, Cancellara’s skills have definitely changed in the last few years. He doesn’t seem to have the same kind of raw power as he once had and he now has to rely a bit more on tactics and experience. However, he is a very wily rider who knows how to save his energy for the right moment and gauge when to make his moves.

 

At the same time, he has become a lot faster in the sprints and at the end of a hard classic, he is able to beat many sprinters. That was evident when he finished second behind the dominant Kristoff in 2014 race and when he beat faster riders to win the Tour of Flanders. In the past, Cancellara always had to attack to win Sanremo – that’s what he did in 2008 – but now he can rely on his sprint too.

 

This gives him a few cards to play and it will be interesting to see how he handles the tactics. In 2014 and 2015 he chose not to attack on the Poggio and saved it all for the sprint. However, it will still be hard for him to beat riders like Kristoff in this kind of sprint and if really wants to win this race, he probably has to attack. However, it will be hard to get rid of faster riders like Sagan and Matthews and he won’t be able to drop the world champion on the descent. However, Cancellara knows how to make a smart move in the final flat section and if anyone can get a gap here, it’s probably him. History shows that he can do well in a sprint too and we wouldn’t be completely surprised if he even manages to beat Sagan and Matthews in that kind of finish.

 

Edvald Boasson Hagen is back to his best after a few disappointing seasons and it seems that 2016 will be the year when he finally emerges as a real classics contender. He may not have had much success in the longest races but his performances at the 2012 and 2015 Worlds prove that the length of the races haven’t been reason for his failures.

 

Boasson Hagen was one of the strongest on the climbs in Tirreno-Adriatico and he should be with the best when the attacking starts on the Poggio. Everybody knows that he is fast in a sprint but on paper both Matthews and Sagan are faster. That was evident in Tirreno where Sagan beat him in stages 2 and 4. On the other hand, things are different at the end of a long race and Boasson Hagen is one of the riders with a chance in a sprint from a small group. He will also take his chance in a bunch sprint but he is unlikely to come out on top from a bigger group.

 

Arnaud Demare has not had much success in this race which should actually suit him very well. He has always done pretty well in the classics and so he can handle the distances. He is a great climber and he is clearly one of the best sprinters in the world. Last year he had bad luck as he was taken out of contention by a crash on Cipressa.

 

Demare won a stage in Paris-Nice where he proved that the form is very good. Unfortunately, he left the race with a small injury and even though it hasn’t bothered him much, it is still a small setback. Still he is a very strong contender for the race. His win in France proved that he still has the speed to beat everyone and his lack of results is only a result of his poor positioning. He will have a much better chance in a smaller field at the end of a long, hard race and this makes him a very realistic winner candidate.

 

In 2015, Alejandro Valverde returned Milan-Sanremo for the first time since 2006 but he failed to play a role. While Juan Jose Lobato will be the man for the sprint, Valverde will try to attack on the Poggio and it will be a surprise if he is not part of the action. The Spaniard showed in Strade Bianche that he is not at his usual level – which is part of the plan – and his poor time trial in Tirreno partly confirmed that trend. However, Milan-Sanremo is such an easy race for a rider like Valverde that he will definitely be one of the best on the climbs.  Valverde has won bunch sprints in the past but he is unlikely to win a sprint from a bigger group. However, he will fancy his chances in a breakaway where it won’t be impossible to beat the likes of Sagan and Matthews.

 

Sacha Modolo deserves a mention. The Italian finished a memorable fourth in his debut at this race but since then he has not had the same kind of luck. In 2014 he was in a good position but started his sprint too early and last year he skipped the race due to a lack of form. This year he has been riding really well. He sprinted strongly in the Middle East and he did a good Tirreno-Adriatico. He is clearly climbing really well and we have little doubt that he will be there in the finale. Of course there are faster riders than him but he is one of the select few with a chance to win a bunch sprint, especially if he has Davide Cimolai for the lead-out.

 

Mark Cavendish has flown under the radar as he is not in his best form after coming off the track. He suffered in Tirreno but his form clearly improved along the way. There will be no pressure on him to be there in the finale and we doubt that he has the form to be a contender. However, the headwind will make things easier and as he didn’t do too badly in the final stages in Tirreno, he can’t be ruled out. On paper, only Gaviria and maybe Kristoff can match him when it comes to pure speed. A sprint is different after 300km and he would be less of a favourite than he would be in a normal bunch sprint but if he is there, he will still be one of the top contenders.

 

Everybody is talking about Greg Van Avermaet after his Tirreno win but it is hard to see how the Belgian is going to win this race. He will definitely try to attack on the Poggio but he won’t be able to drop Sagan, Matthews, Boasson Hagen and Cancellara who are all faster than him in a flat sprint. He has beaten Sagan several times but that has always been in an uphill sprint. He is very unlikely to have a chance in a sprint finish – even after 300km. His best chance is to make a late attack in the flat section after the Poggio.

 

Finally, we will point to Tom Boonen. The Belgian is clearly not at his former level and there’s no reason to be too optimistic for the cobbled classics. However, he should be able to be there at the end of Milan-Sanremo and if Fernando Gaviria has been dropped, he will be the Etixx-QuickStep sprinter. He has actually been sprinting well during the last 12 months and at the end of 300km he is always strong.

 

***** Alexander Kristoff

**** Peter Sagan, Michael Matthews

*** Nacer Bouhanni, Fernando Gaviria, Fabian Cancellara, Edvald Boasson Hagen

** Arnaud Demare, Alejandro Valverde, Sacha Modolo, Mark Cavendish, Greg Van Avermaet, Tom Boonen

* Sep Vanmarcke, Matteo Trentin, Juan Jose Lobato, Jens Debusschere, Zdenek Stybar, Giacomo Nizzolo, Ben Swift, Sonny Colbrelli, Michal Kwiatkowski, Vincenzo Nibali, Jan Bakelants