While most of the cycling world have their eyes on Belgium, the Coupe de France series is back in a busy weekend which offers two races with lots of points on offer. After Friday’s relatively new Route Adelie Vitré, Sunday is the day of a much older event, the semi-classic Paris-Camembert whose hilly terrain offers opportunities for both strong sprinters and aggressive riders.

At this time of the year, it is all about cobbles and Belgian hellingen but while the Belgian riders and the world stars have their focus on the Ronde van Vlaanderen, the first week of April is just as important for many of the French riders. The Coupe de France race series may not get much attention outside of France but for the local riders, it is a big goal to do well in the races that are part of the prestigious calendar.

After the early start in January at the GP Marseillaise and the races in Cholet and Loire-Atlantique two weekends ago, the series is back with a busy schedule of two races in three days. On Friday, the riders tackled the Route Adelie Vitré and on Sunday it is time for the semi-classic Paris-Camembert.

While Route Adelie Vitré is a relatively new race, Paris-Camembert has a long history. It was first held in 1934 under the name of Paris-Vimoutiers until it got its current name in 1943. Like most other races with a long history, it doesn’t actually connect the two cities that make up its name and it actually finishes in Vimoutiers which was part of the original name.

The race has a long history but it has largely been a French affair. In the 1990s, it seemed to have a brief revival as a major international race and there were lots of foreign winners I that decade. Since then, it has again lost a bit of its prestige and like most other Coupe de France races it no longer attracts foreign ProTeams.

A few years ago, it was held on the Tuesday before Amstel Gold Race and its hilly terrain made it a good preparation race for the Ardennes. That’s how Alejandro Valverde used it when he won it in 2008. Since then it has been moved to the Sunday of the Tour of Flanders to create better synergy with the Route Adelie Vitré and as this weekend is loaded with international races, it is no surprise that there haven’t been any foreign riders on the podium since 2009. It is currently a 1.1 race on the UCI calendar.

The race is a hilly one that can have several different outcomes. Mostly it has been won by attackers but it has also been decided in reduced bunch sprints like in 2014 when Bryan Coquard won the race. Last year Julien Loubet beat Pierrick Fedrigo in a two-rider sprint, with a small peloton sprinting for third. The scenario was very similar in 2013 while breakaways decided the race on most of the previous occasions.

The course

The race is held over 205km and brings the riders from Pont-Audemer to the finish in Vimoutiers. The first 123.5km brings the ridersfromthe start to the finish through lumpy terrain that includes the category 3 Cote de Canapville just 6km from the finish. After crossing the finish line, the riders will do a lap of a 26km circuit with the category 2 Cote de Roivile and category 3 Cote de Canapville again.

The final part of the race consists of two circuits. First it’s the relatively easy 19.3km circuit with the Cote de Roiville but the real challenges is the final 36.2km loop that includes no lessthan four category 1 climbs. The Cote du Moulin Neuf, Murdes Champeaux and Cote du Ranouard come with 31.5km, 27.5km and 20.3km respectively and then the final challenge is Cavee de Crouttes just 7.1km from the finish. From there it is mainly descending until the riders hit the final kilometre where the first 600m are flat and the final 400m are uphill. It’s a long straight road with no major technical challenges.

The weather

The riders had great conditions for Friday’s race and it will be more of the same on Sunday. Bright sunshine is forecasted but there is actually a small chance that there will be some rain in the finale. The maximum temperature will be 17 degrees.

It will be windier than yesterday as there will be a moderate wind from a southeasterly direction. This means that it will mainly be a cross-headwind in the first part and there will be lots of crosswind on the final circuits. It will be a headwind after the final climb until the riders turn into a cross-tailwind for the final few kilometres.

The favourites

Paris-Camembert is a difficult race to predict as it is open for several different scenarios. The first part of the race is relatively easy and that’s rarely where the decision is made. The difficult partcomes near the end as all the main climbs come in quick succession on the finishing circuit and so it is no wonder that it has been very difficult to set up a reduced bunch sprint. In recent years, it has only happened once even though the peloton was close to the front group in both 2013 and 2015. However, the main group has always been very small and this is definitely not a race for the pure sprinters.

Like in Friday’s Route AdelieVitré, Direct Energie have the key to the race. They are here with Bryan Coquard and as he won the race in 2014, he has proved that he can handle the climbs. In fact, it is a great race for him as he climbs much better than most sprinters and he likes this kind of uphill sprint. This year he has stepped up his level massively and he has been winning sprints by several bike lengths.

Coquard broke his shoulder in February but has had a remarkable comeback. After just two days of racing, he nearly won Dwars door Vlaanderen which is definitely not an easy race and he went on to feature in the finale of both E3 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem. He won Route Adelie Vitré and was even riding so well that he was on the attack on the finishing circuit.

There is little chance that Coquard will be strong enough to be there in the finale but the challenge will be to keep things together for a sprint. However, Direct Energie have one of the strongest teams here and riders like Romain Sicard, Thomas Voeckler and Angelo Tulik are great in this terrain. If they can just control things until the bottom of the final climb, Coquard will probably be strong enough to join the attacks himself and as no one wants to go to the finish with him, that will make a sprint finish more likely. At the end of a hard race, there won’t be much lead-out left which could be a problem as he has had a hard time in the fight for position. However, in a small field that is no big issue and we have little doubt that he will win a sprint finish. Hence, he is our favourite.

His big rival in a sprint finish will be Baptiste Planckaert. He didn’t make things right in Vitré but the form is definitely there. After all, he has just won the Tour de Normandie and he is strong in hilly terrain. Like Coquard he likes uphill sprints so this finale is great for him. In Vitré, his Wallonie team tried to control things but they are unlikely to be strong enough to do so. Direct Energie will be the big ally for Planckaert who will be ready to strike if Coquard makes just a small mistake in the sprint.

Pierrick Fedrigo is always strong in this race which he won in 2013. Last year he was second after having been beaten in a two-rider sprint and he will keen to continue his run of success here. He had some health issues in February but has gradually been building his form. He looked solid in Criterium International and he will be ready to go on the attack in the finale. He is one of the strongest riders here and is fast in a sprint.

The same goes for Cyril Gautier who is known as one of the most aggressive riders in the peloton. Ag2r have Samuel Dumoulin for the sprint but as he is just coming back from a bout of illness, the team will ride aggressively. Gautier gave it a go in Vitré and will definitely tru again in this race. He is one of the strongest in this terrain and has the sprint to finish it off.

The same goes for Romain Hardy who seems to be getting stronger throughout the Volta a Catalunya. Cofidis are here without a sprinter so he will be free to search for opportunities. Delio Fernandez has many of the same characteristics and he has been riding strongly all year. He is part of a Delko team with several cards to play and they will try to blow the race to pieces.

Romai Feillu was second when the race was decided in a sprint in 2014 so he can definitely survive here. He is in good form as he proved at the Criterium International and he is one of the fastest in this field. Samuel Dumoulin has been close to victory in this race in the past and it really suits him down to the ground. However, he is not in his best form yet and there is no guarantee that he will be there in the sprint.

Daniele Ratto has many of the same characteristics but he has not really been riding at a high level yet in 2016. Loic Chetout is the protected Cofidis sprinter alongside Clement Venturini for whom this race is probably is too hard and he is getting stronger and stronger. However, his best chance is to go on the attack

Kevin Ledanois, Anthony Delaplace, Florian Vachon, Laurent Pichon, Stephane Rossetto, Julien El Fares, Leonardo Duque and Gavin Mannion are good picks to win the race from a breakaway in the finale.

***** Bryan Coquard

**** Baptiste Planckaert, Pierrick Fedrigo

*** Cyril Gautier, Romain Hardy, Delio Fernandez

** Romain Feillu, Samuel Dumoulin, Daniele Ratto, Loic Chetout

* Kevin Ledanois, Anthony Delaplace, Florian Vachon, Laurent Pichon, Stephane Rossetto, Julien El Fares, Leonardo Duque, Gavin Mannion, Clement Venturini