Spring has finally arrived and nothing is more indicative of the brighter times to come than the kick-off of the first major stage race, Paris-Nice. The symbolism is evident when the riders literally travel from the cold, windy, and wintry conditions in Northern France to the bright sunshine at the French Cote d'Azur while the terrain changes from a flat sprinters paradise to a hilly, undulating affair. After a strange 2014 edition that suited the classics riders, the race is back to a more traditional format and shapes up to be the scene of a great battle between some of the most promising stage race riders in the world.

 

Most professional bike riders already have plenty of racing miles in their legs, making good use of the warm and sunny conditions in places like Australia, Argentina, the Middle East, Algarve, Andalusia, and the French Cote d'Azur to clock up the kilometres. While an early win is always appreciated and a welcome boost of confidence, however, it has until now been all about warm-up and preparation for the bigger races to come.

 

That changed last weekend when the professional cycling calendar entered its next phase with the traditional Belgian opening weekend. While cycling fans all over the world have appreciated the globalized cycling and the many high-level early season events, there is still a feeling that the season hasn't started for real until the best classics riders have tested themselves on the Belgian cobbles for the first time.

 

Omloop Het Nieuwsblad kicked off the race calendar of historic races on European soil. From now on, the races are no longer mere training in a laid-back atmosphere, now it is time to clock up the results. For the classics riders, things got serious last Saturday but for the stage race riders, the first real test has traditionally come with the double-header of big, historic stage races: Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico. Even though Paris-Nice is not the Tour de France and Omloop Het Nieuwsblad is not the Tour of Flanders, the serious racing now begins in earnest.

 

Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico both play a strange, dual role on the calendar. On one hand, they are the first big objectives for the greatest stage racers who hope to land their first big wins in one of the most prestigious races on the calendar. At the same time, they are a crucial part of the preparation for the classics riders who benefit immensely from one week of WorldTour racing in tough conditions and versatile terrain. It may be difficult to decide whether to head to France or Italy but one of the races forms an indispensable part of every successful classics schedule - just ask Team Sky whose classics riders made the ill-fated experiment of skipping the historic stage races in 2013.

 

It is no wonder that Paris-Nice is a key event on the European calendar. With its inaugural edition taking place in 1933, it has a deep history and its position on the calendar is both symbolic and well-chosen. Originally put on as a training race right after the track season, the race disappeared during World War II and an ill-fated attempt to revive it in 1946 was quickly shut down.

 

The race was back on the calendar in 1951, with the Paris-Nice name being restored in 1954, and it was during the 50s that the race gained its status, growing from a preparation event to a big race in its own right. The fantastic 1966 battle between Jacques Anquetil and Raymond Poulidor divided France and from then, the race was definitively part of cycling's most prestigious events. Right from the beginning, it has been an international affair and many of the big riders have added the event to their palmares, with Eddy Merckx winning it three times in a row from 1969 to 1971, Anquetil taking five wins, and Miguel Indurain two. The dominant figure has, however, been Sean Kelly who won the race an impressive 7 times in a row from 1982 to 1988 until Indurain broke the streak.

 

What makes the race so special is its symbolic nature. Known as the Race to the Sun, nothing signals the arrival of spring better than the French race which starts in Northern France where the riders are often bundled up as they try to battle the cold and windy conditions. This part of the race has traditionally suited the sprinters and the classics riders, with the crosswinds often playing a crucial role on at least one stage.

 

As the riders travel south and get closer to Nice, the weather improves and they typically end the race in sunny conditions at the Cote d'Azur. At the same time, the terrain changes and it is time for the climbers to come to the fore to decide the overall standings in the prestigious race.

 

That dual nature means that the race has a bit for everyone. The race has often kicked off with a prologue and has often ended with the now famous time trial up the Col d'Eze on the outskirts of Nice, meaning that there has also been something for the time trialists to target. Due to its early dates, the race never reaches the high mountains and always completely skips the Alps and so it has rarely been a race for the real climbing specialists. Instead, it is won by a versatile rider who masters everything, and it is clearly reflected by the winners list.

 

Traditionally, the race has been the place to be for the great stage race riders who have been attracted by the versatility of the course that has made it some kind of a mini Tour de France. In recent years, however, this has slightly changed. For several years, the amount of time trialing was limited to an opening prologue, with the 2011 edition and the recent return to the Col d'Eze time trial being the major exceptions, and several editions have not had any major summit finishes.

 

In 2014, however, the organizers ASO – who have been in charge of the race since 2002 – made a brave choice by completely changing the nature of the race. With no time trials and no major summit finishes, the course was made up of 8 small classics and this caused a major reshuffle in the line-up. Having learnt about the new course, most big stage race riders changed their mind and decided to forgo the French race in favour of Tirreno-Adriatico while the classics specialists were attracted by the new layout.

 

That development was an interesting one as Tirreno-Adriatico has gone in the opposite direction. Traditionally, the two WorldTour races have been involved in a fierce battle for the best line-ups and for several years they seemed to divide the spoils. As the Italian race has often consisted of a mixture of flat and punchy stages and has often been won by classics riders, the one-day specialists headed to Italy while the stage race riders travelled to France. With Tirreno organizers RCS having changed the formula of their race to include more time trialing and bigger mountains, however, it is now the Italian race that seems to be the mini grand tour while Paris-Nice is much more suited to the punchier guys.

 

The move didn’t really pay off for ASO who could see all the major stars travel to Italy while their race didn’t attract its usual attention. In an attempt to regain its position, ASO have returned to a more traditional format. Last year the Col d’Eze time trial and the prologue were back and the race even included a big summit finish. That year’s edition was one of the most selective in recent years and definitely one for the stage race riders.

 

However, the race again lost the battle against Tirreno that attracted Chris Froome (who ultimately fell ill before the race), Nairo Quintana, Alberto Contador and Vincenzo Nibali. The uncertainty over the course made the big stage racers decide against the French race but after having learnt about the routes, Contador slightly regretted his choice, claiming Paris-Nice to be harder than the Italian event.

 

This year the trend has continued and the organizers were quickly spread rumours about a very tough course. When they unveiled the 2016 edition of the journey to the sun, those reports were confirmed and it is evident that ASO have decided to really challenge RCS Sport in the fight for the best line-up. Their efforts seem to have paid off and for the first time in several years, it seems that the Frenchmen have won the battle as Alberto Contador and Richie Porte spearhead a list of GC contenders that includes the likes of Simon Spilak, Sergio Henao, Romain Bardet, Ilnur Zakarin, Geraint Thomas, Rafal Majka, Ion Izagirre, Rui Costa, Mikel Nieve, Steven Kruijswijk, Wilco Kelderman, Tom Dumoulin, Pierre Rolland, Rui Ciosta, Michal Kwaitkowski, Louis Meintjes, Rein Taaramae and Andrew Talansky,

 

Both races have also battled for the honour of being the best preparation for Milan-Sanremo. Opinions have been divided as the French race has allowed a bit more rest before the Italian classic while the Italian one has often had longer stages and better weather conditions. In this cenutry, the Sanremo winner has often been doing the Tirreno but in recent years things have changed as Simon Gerrans, Matthew Goss, Alexander Kristoff and John Degenkolb were all riding in France. This year they there is a solid chance that the Sanremo winner will again ride in France as the likes of Kristoff, Marcel Kittel Nacer Bouhanni, Michael Matthews, André Greipel, Niccolo Boniazio, Arnaud Demare and Juan Jose Lobato headline a solid sprinting field while Philippe Gilbert and Sep Vanmarcke are the classics stars in attendance.

 

Last year’s race saw Richie Porte take a dominant second victory in the French race. The Australian and teammate Geraint Thomas made it a 1-2 for Sky on the queen stage and they seemed to be on track for a 1-2 in the overall standings too when they both crashed in the epic, rainy penultimate stage. That allowed Tony Gallopin to take the lead but he cracked in the Col d’Eze time trial where Porte delivered an impressive performance to take the title again. Michal Kwiatkowski, Simon Spilak and Rui Costa were all 30 seconds behind in a close battle for the remaining podium spots while Thomas and Gallopin had to settle for 5th and 6th. Apart from Kwiatkowski, those riders will all be back to try to do even better in the 2016 edition of the race.

 

The course

As said, organizers ASO have returned to a more traditional format. Last year’s race was already one of the hardest in recent years and for 2016, ASO have made the course even tougher. However, the mountain time trial on the Col d’Eze will be skipped and with just an opening prologue for the time triallists to try to make a difference, it is a race for climbers more than for versatile stage race specialists.

 

The race keeps its traditional format in the sense that it heads from the north of France near Paris to the traditional finish in Nice. As usual, Col d’Eze will feature on the course even though it won’t the traditional marquee time trial. Instead, the race will end on the famous Promenade d'Anglais in Nice as it has so often done in the past.

 

After the opening prologue, the sprinters will have three opportunities but the GC riders have to stay attentive as the crosswinds have often wreaked havoc on the peloton. This year the addition of dirt roads will further challenge the riders in what is always a very stressful start to the race. They face the first GC test on stage 3 where a short 3km climb will give the first indication of the climbing hierarchy. Then there’s another chance for the sprinters before the riders will tackle a strange fifth stage that includes the mighty Mount Ventoux very early in a course that has a flat finale. The race will be decided on the final two stages where a novel summit finish on La Madone d’Utelle on the penultimate stage will do the major shake-up before the riders tackle the traditional short stage in the hills around Nice on the final day.

 

Prologue:

Paris-Nice has usually kicked off with a flat prologue in one of the Parisian suburbs but on a few occasions, the race has had a road stage on the opening day. The novel course in 2014 last saw the riders kick the race off in this way but last year the time trial was back. This year it is again a traditional start as the peloton faces a 6.1km prologue on the opening day.

 

The stage takes place in the city of Conflans-Sainte-Honorine and kicks off on the short of the Seine river. The first 3km will see the riders travel along its shores on a straight, flat road that is tailor-made for the big specialists. With a little less than 4km to go, they will turn left to leave the river and from there the road is mostly very slightly ascending, with a total elevation gain of 33m. There are two roundabouts and three sharp turns in this part of the course but the course doesn’t include many technical challenges. The final sweeping right-hand turn comes 250m from the line.

 

Sometimes sprinters do well in prologues as they can use their acceleration skills to get back up to speed after the corners. However, this course is one for the really powerful riders as it is mainly made up of long, flat straights and it should mainly be an affair for the specialists. Of course the stage is a short one which suits a certain type of riders but we can expect one of the best time triallists to take the first leader’s jersey in the 2016 Paris-Nice. At the same time, the stage will open the first small time gaps in the overall standings and even though this year’s harder course means that the race will probably be decided by bigger margins than usual, it will be important to get the race off to a solid start.

 

Conflans-Sainte-Honorine has not hosted a stage in recent years.

 

 

Stage 1:

The first half of Paris-Nice is usually for the sprinters and the 2016 edition will be no exception. At the same time, it is known for its stressful and windy conditions and many riders have lost the Race to the Sun by missing a split in what should be an easy stage. This year the organizers have added an extra element of stress and nervousness by including gravel roads in the finale of the first road stage of the race.

 

Already on the second day, the riders will start their journey towards the sun as they head over 198km from Condé-sur-Vesgre to Vendome. This part of France is completely flat and there won’t be any major topographical challenges on the long run that will see the riders travel in a southwesterly direction almost all day. In fact, there’s not a single categorized climb in the first part of the stage and the only noteworthy point is the intermediate sprint at the 104km mark.

 

The action will heat up with 30km to go when the riders change direction to approach the finish from the west. With 24.5km to go, they will hit the 14km finishing circuit and from there, the stress will be huge. Just 1.5km later, they will tackle a 1350m gravel section and with 18km to go, there’s a shorter 750m section whose first part is even uphill as the riders will contest a category 3 KOM sprint (1km, 3.7%) 250 from the end of the dirt road. From there, there are just 3.5km to the finish where the riders will contest the final intermediate sprint before doing a full lap of the circuit, meaning that there’s another KOM sprint on offer.

 

The finale is very technical as there are 7 sharp turns before the riders get to a roundabout at the flamme rouge. Then there’s a sharp left-hand turn 500m from the line which is on an 8m wide road. After the gravel rod, the road is descending but the final 2km are almost completely flat.

 

The first road stage of Paris-Nice has always been either been a traditional sprint stage where an early break has been kept under control before the sprinters have battled it out, or a brutal battle in the crosswinds. If the wind is strong, it will again be stressful all day but this year there is guarantee for drama in the finale. The nervousness will be huge on the technical final circuit where everyone wants to be in a good position for the gravel roads. Crashes are bound to happen and some GC riders could very well lose time if they are caught out behind a tumble. It remains to be seen how bad the dirt roads are but the stress will always be huge in such a stage. In the end, it should come down to some kind of sprint where the fast riders hope to take back some of the time they lost in the prologue to get closer to a stint in yellow while also taking a very important win in one of the most prestigious races on the calendar.

 

Vendome has not hosted a stage finish for more than a decade.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stage 2:

After the stressful opener, the second stage is a much more traditional early stage in Paris-Nice and the sprinters will be keen to make the most of their opportunities in the first part of the race which is again tailor-made for them. The second day should be one for the fast finishers as the riders continue their journey through the flatlands to get closer to the sun but as always they will have to be attentive in the wind.

 

At 213.5km, it is an unusually long Paris-Nice stage that will bring the riders from Contres to Commentry. It serves its usual purpose of bringing the riders closer to the sun and so they will travel in a southeasterly direction all day. It’s a completely flat part of France and so the only noteworthy point in the first part of the race will be the intermediate sprint at the 25km mark.

 

As the riders approach the finishing city, they will slightly deviate from the direct route to tackle the category 3 climb of Cote d’Estivareilles (1.7km, 6.2%) with 49.5km to go. Then it is back into flat terrain as they zigzag their way through the area close to the finishing city before entering the finishing circuit with 23.5km to go. 6.5km later they will cross the line for the first time to contest the final intermediate sprint. The final part if made up of one lap of the 17km circuit that has a small climb in the early part but is mainly flat.

 

The final 5km are mainly made up of a long straight road before two roundabouts lead to a sharp turn with 1.7km to go. The final challenge is a right-hand turn in a roundabout just 500m from the line which is on a 6m wide road. The final 4km are very slightly ascending, with the final kilometre averaging 1.3%.

 

This is a classic Paris-Nice stage. It can either before a straightforward affair for the sprinters and end in a traditional bunch sprint or come down to a huge battle in the crosswinds if the wind has the right direction and is strong. In the end, it will undoubtedly be decided in some kind of sprint finish where the fast finishers have a final chance to move into yellow before the GC battle really starts. The first intermediate sprint comes so early that it may even offer them to go for bonus seconds earlier in the stage.

 

Commentry has not hosted a stage finish for more than a decade.

 

 

 

 

Stage 3:

The climbing has usually started on a smaller scale on the fourth day and it will be no different in 2016. However, while the first hilly stage has rarely been enough to create some damage in the fight for the overall win, this year’s first climbing offers a real chance to make a difference as it includes an uphill finish. The final climb is not very long and is maybe more suited to puncheurs but there is no doubt that it will offer the first indication of the climbing hierarchy.

 

The stage consists of an easterly run from Cusset to the top of Mont Brouilly as the riders briefly put their southerly journey on hold. At 168km, it is shorter than the previous stages. The first part is not too challenging as the terrain is only slightly lumpier than it has been in the first two stages until the riders get to the category 3 Cote de Vernay (2.3km, 4.6%) at the 59.5km mark.

 

The riders are now getting closer to the hills in Massif-Central and and after the category 3 Cote de Chateauneuf (2.4km, 5% after 79.5km of racing), the intermediate sprint at the 84km mark signals the start of the real climb. First up is the category3 Cote des Echarmeaux (9.5km, 3.1%) whose summit comes 71.5km from the finish and then it is time for the category Cote des Rochettes (3.1km, 4.5%) and Col du Dut u Avanas (2.8km, 3.7%).

 

The top of the latter climb comes with 51km to go and is followed by a long descent as the riders hit the finishing circuit with 46km to go. They head straight to the bottom of the category 2 Mont Brouilly (3km, 7.7%) which they will tackle for a first time before doing a full lap of the 32km circuit. It is a lumpy affair with very little flat roads and an intermediate sprint with 25.5km to go but there are no categorized climbs until the riders hit the bottom of the Mont Brouilly for the final time.

 

The final climb gradually gets steeper and steeper. The first kilometre averages 6.1%, the second has an average gradient of 7.9% and the final kilometre is the steepest at 9.3%. It’s a very technical climb as the final kilometre includes numerous hairpin bends in quick succession before the riders get onto the 100m finishing straight on a 6m wide road.

 

This stage is the first chance for the GC riders to test their climbing legs and there is little doubt that they will be eager to grab their chance to go for the stage win too. Alberto Contador wants to stamp his authority on the race early on and so it should come down to a battle between the best on the final climb. It’s a relatively short one and as the first part of the stage is not overwhelmingly hard, it is a stage more for punchy climbers and Ardennes specialists. However, the final kilometre is very steep and it will be enough to give the first real indication of who’s going to win the 2016 Paris-Nice.

 

The summit finish has not been used in a major bike race for more than a decade.

 

 

 

 

Stage 4:

The sprinters stepped into the background in stage 3 but still have two potential opportunities to test their sprinting legs before Milan-Sanremo. One of them will come on the fifth day of the race when the riders continue their journey towards the sun with a lumpy run that includes a few climbs but should be a day for the fast riders.

 

The stage will bring the riders over 195.5km from Julienas to Romans-sure-Isere and consists of a long, southerly run through slightly hilly terrain. The category 3 Col de Brouilly (1.8km 4.7%) features already after 19.5km of racing and then a rolling section leads to the first intermediate sprint at the 80.5km mark. The category 3 Cote de Givors (4km, 4.3%) offers another chance to pick up some KOM points after 108km of racing before the riders get to the flattest part of the course that includes the final intermediate sprint 52km from the finish. The final challenge is the category 2 Cote de Saint-Uze (2.8km, 6.5%) but is comes with 32.5km to go and the run-in to the finish is mainly flat.

 

The finale is loaded with roundabout as the riders will turn left or right in three of those inside the final 5km before they get to two turns in quick succession with 1.5km to go. From there, it is almost completely straight but there’s a roundabout 400m from the line which is on a 7m wide road. It is flat in the final 5km.

 

The sprinters may get a chance in stage 5 too but this could be their final opportunity to show themselves in this race. They won’t allow themselves to miss out on that one and so it is very likely that this stage will be decided in a bunch sprint. The late climb could be used as a launch pad for attacks from some of the puncheurs but it will require a massive performance to hold off the peloton on the flat roads to the finish. Furthermore, this area is less windy and so it should be less stressful for the GC riders.

 

Romans-sur-Isere has not hosted a finish of a major bike race for more than a decade.

 

 

 

 

Stage 5:

A popular element of the Paris-Nice course is the famous climb of Mont Ventoux which was last climbed in 2008. The mountain has sometimes played a big role in deciding the race when it has been used as a summit finish even though the early time of the year has prevented the riders from going all the way to the top. This year it is back on the menu but it a very unusual role as an early test in a moderately hilly stage and so the sprinters may get the rare chance to win a stage that includes one of the hardest clims in cycling.

 

The stage will bring the riders over 196km from Saint-Paul-Troix-Chateaux to Salon-de-Provence. From the start, the riders will travel along flat roads in a southeasterly direction to approach the Giant of Provence, with an intermediate sprint coming after just 23.5km of racing and offering a chance for the sprinters to score some points for the green jersey. The category 3 Col de la Madeleine (1.6km, 4.1%) serves as a warm-up at the 49.5km mark and then it is time for the main menu, the category 1 climb to the Chalet Reynard on the Ventoux. It’s a 9.5km climb with an average gradient of 9.3% and with no room for recovery as the gradient barely drops below the 8% mark.

 

The top comes 124.5km from the finish and leads to a descent to the city of Sault as the riders are now travelling in a southerly direction. There’s a gradual uphill drag halfway down before the riders complete the descending. Then the climbing start again with the category 2 Col du Pointu (5.9km, 4.1%) before a flat section with the final intermediate sprint 57km from the finish leads to the final two challenges. The category 2 climbs og Cote de la Roque-d’Antheron (4.2km, 5.5%) and Col de Seze (1.7km, 7.2%) come in quick succession as the riders zigzag their way in the hilly terrain east of the finishing city, with the final summit being located with 26.5km to go. From there it is a flat run to the finish.

 

The finale is very technical. A long straight road with two roundabouts leads to a sharp turn just before the flamme rouge. Then there are two 90-degree turns in quick succession before the riders get onto the 400m finishing straight that is 7m wide. The road is slightly descending until the final kilometre which is flat.

 

Mont Ventoux comes way too early to play a role in the GC battle and there’s no real incentive for anyone to go full gas here. However, it may be used as a launch pad for a very strong break to get clear and with the late climbs making it a hard day for the sprinters, most of the sprint teams won’t be committed to the chase. However, the break could very well include riders that are still close on GC and this could prompt the GC teams to contribute to the chase. At the same time, there is little doubt that Michael Matthews has red-circled this stage and so we expect a reduced bunch sprint in Salon-de-Provence.

 

Salon-de-Provence hosted a stage finish of the 2001 Tour Mediteraneen. Back then, Jimmy Casper won a bunch sprint.

 

 

 

 

 

Stage 6:

In recent years, Paris-Nice has usually included a summit finish on a climb that is longer than what is usually seen in France at this time of the year. That will again be the case in 2016 when the riders will tackle a very hard queen stage on the penultimate day of the race. It includes a new mountaintop finish on La Madone d’Utelle which has never been used in a major bike race before but as it is a relatively easy climb, it may create less damage than one would expect.

 

The riders have reached Nice one day earlier than usual in 2016 and the penultimate stage will start from the city where it will all end 24 hours later. It will bring the riders over 177km to the top of La Madone d’Utelle and barely includes a single metre of flat roads as the riders zigzag their way through the hilly terrain north of the city.

 

After a short, flat run along the coast, the climbing gets serious right from the start as the rider head into the hills via the category 2 Cote de Gattieres (4.5km, 4.8%) whose top comes after just 10km of racing. Then a short, relatively easy section leads to the category 3 Cote de Coursegoules (11.5km, 4.4%), summiting at the 50km mark. The first intermediate sprint comes just 2.5km later and then it’s time for a long descent.

 

The riders will get back into climbing mode at the 83km mark where they tackle the category 2 Cote de la Sigale (7.3km, 4.9%) and category 1 Cote d’Asoros (8.5km, 5.4%) in quick succession before they take on a long descent that almost brings them back to sea level.

 

That will be the final chance to recover as the final 40km are very tough. First the riders will head up the category 3 Cote de Levens (6.2km, 5.5%) and then contest the final intermediate sprint before they tackle the short, steep category 2 climb of Cote de Duranus (1.6km, 8.4%). The summit comes with just 20km to go and there’s just a short descent before the riders hit the bottom of the 15.3km category 1 climb to the finish. It averages 5.7%) but never gets very steep and is a relatively gentle affair. The first half is the hardest with a few kilometres at more than 7% but there is plenty of room for recovery with some easier sections. The hardest kilometre comes with 6km to go where it averages 9.3% but from there the climb is very easy at 3-6% until the riders hit the final 300m ramp that averages 10.9%. The climb is a scenic one with numerous hairpin turns. The final turn comes 150m from the line which is on a 6m wide road.

 

At a first glance, the final climb may look as a massive challenge but it is actually a relatively easy climb. It is never steep over a long section and there is always plenty of room for recovery. Furthermore, the final part of the climb is too easy for the climbers to make a difference so the damage has to be done on the lower slopes. The best climbers know that they have to make the most of the opportunity and so they will try to make it as hard as possible already early in the stage but this kind of climb usually comes down to a sprint from a small group. The steep ramp in the finale will make it possible for the strongest to gain a few seconds.

 

The climb has never hosted a finish of a major bike race before.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stage 7:

When the Col d’Eze time trial has been skipped, the race has always ended with a short, hilly stage in the tough terrain around the city of Nice. That is again the case for this year’s final challenge which is loaded with the tough climbs and the beautiful surroundings that characterize this part of the country. As usual, the stage finishes with a long descent to the Promenade d’Anglais in Nice, meaning that it is hard for the GC riders to make a big difference on the day when they complete their journey to the sun and reaches the Cote d’Azur.

 

As usual, the stage both starts and finishes in Nice and at just 134km it is the usual short affair. From the start, the riders will travel along the seafront until they turn into the hinterland along gradually ascending roads. The first highlight is the first intermediate sprint at the 19km mark but the climbing doesn’t get serious before they get to the bottom of the category 3 Cote de Duranus (3.9km, 4.3%) whose summit is located at the 33km mark and which is quickly followed by the category 3 Cote de Levens (5.3km, 3.1%). A short, flat section leads to the category 2 Cote de Chateauneuf (5.4km, 4.4%) and then it is time for the first real descent.

 

At the midpoint of the stage, the riders will tackle the category 2 Col de Calaison (6.3km, 4.4%) before they descend to the bottom of the hardest climb of the day. The category 1 Cote de Peille averages 6.9% over 6.5km and summits 47.5km from the finish. Then there’s a long descent via La Turbie where the final intermediate sprint will be contested 36.5km from the line. As usual the final challenge is the famous category 1 climb of Col d’Eze (7.7km, 5.7%) whose summit comes just 15.5km from the line.

 

The final part of the stage consists of the well-known descent that ends with 2km to go but as the riders approach the Promenade d’Anglais there is the usual small 500m climb which summits at the flamme rouge. 500m of descending leads to the flat final finishing straight of 500m on the famous, 7m wide avenue at the Cote d’Azur.

 

This stage contains most of the well-known climbs from this area and most of the riders will be familiar with the terrain and the descents. However, the climbs in the area are never very steep and it has often been hard to create a big difference. Some of the classics riders usually manage to keep up with the best in this stage. However, it is also the final chance to change the overall standings so there is little doubt that the best climbers will go for it on what will be a fast day. The first part is not very hard and so the battle will be on the final two climbs. In the past, a small group has sometimes managed to escape and if they are committed, they may be able to hold off their chasers. A sprint from a select group of GC and Ardennes riders is the most likely outcome but a long-distance breakaway also has a very good chance on a day that is hard to control and has no obvious favourite.

 

Every year a stage finishes on the Promenade d’Anglais. Last year epic weather conditions allowed Tony Gallopin to ride to a solo win on a day when Richie Porte and Geraint Thomas both crashed on a slippery descent. In 2014 Arthur Vichot won the stage after a sprint from a small group of favourites and one year earlier Sylvain Chavanel was the fastest from a bigger group. In 2012, Thomas De Gendt won from a breakaway and in 2011 Thomas Voeckler was the strongest among the escapees. In 2010, Amael Moinard delivered a similar performance while Antonio Colom beat Alberto Contador and Frank Schleck in a three-rider sprint in 2009 when the race turned out to be more selective than usual.

 

 

 

 

The weather

On paper, Paris-Nice will be decided on the climbs in the second  half of the race but the history of the race is loaded with examples of GC contenders who have lost it all in the flat opening stages of Northern France. Every rider with overall ambitions in this race fears those tricky, flat routes where the wind can create a bigger selection than the queen stage later in the race.

 

Hence, they will all be carefully studying the weather forecast and they will be pleased to know that the wind is unlikely to play much of a role. There may be a shower for the prologue but sunny and calm conditions are forecasted for almost every stage. Only the third stage could take place in rainy but conditions. It will be pretty cold in the first few stages as the temperature at the finish of stage 2 could be as low as 5 degrees but the riders can look forward to a sunny and hot end to the race in Nice.

 

The favourites

With the course being back to normal after the strange 2014 edition, the 2016 Paris-Nice is going to be a classic stage race that will be dominated by the riders that excel in multi-day events. It’s a classic Paris-Nice that will test every aspect of a complete bike rider, with the first few stages including stressful racing on flat roads and even some gravel sections and the second half being loaded with climbing. The amount of time trialling is limited but the prologue will play a bigger role than one could expect.

 

At a first glance, the course is clearly the harder than it has been recently and it definitely has more climbing than usual. It is rare for the race to have two summit finishes and if one adds the typical, hilly stage around Nice, the climbers have three stages where they can try to make a difference. However, the climbing is less severe than it looks on paper and we expect the time gaps to be smaller than it was in 2015. Back then, the Col d’Eze time trial was a great chance for the climber to put time into their rivals and the queen stage also had a tougher mountaintop finish that created bigger difference than we can expect on La Madone.

 

Very often the first flat stages have had a big impact on the outcome as crosswinds have wreaked havoc and crashes have split the field. With calm conditions forecasted, they will play less of a role but the opening road stage creates a significant amount of uncertainty. The dirt roads will make it extremely stressful but it remains to be seen whether they are bad enough to split the field. In any case, one needs a very strong team for that stage, especially as there is a big risk of crashes which may create time gaps.

 

In addition to the opening road stage, time gaps can be created in the three mountain stages. There is no doubt that stage 3 will make a difference between the best but it is a relatively short climb and so the gaps won’t be massive. Furthermore, it is more suited to punchier riders than real climbers. However, it could very well be the most important stage of the race. La Madone is a much longer climb but the second half is very easy. It will be very hard for even the greatest climber to really make a difference here and we could very well have a relatively big group sprint it out on the short, steep ramp to the finish. That leaves just the final stage around Nice to gain more time but history shows that the best riders usually arrive together in Nice, especially if the weather is Nice.

 

With time gaps in the mountain stages likely to be relatively small, the prologue will play an important role. It’s a short stage but on this kind of power course, the more powerful riders can really make a difference. Some of the GC riders are great time triallists and they are also suited to the less steep climbs later in the race. In fact, the prologue could turn out to be more important than the La Madone stage.

 

Finally, the bonus seconds could turn out to be important. In a race decided by seconds, the 10 seconds on offer at the finish of every stage could play a significant role in determining the outcome of this race.

 

The course is not as hard as it looks on paper and this is definitely not an advantage for Alberto Contador. Nonetheless, it is hard not to regard the Spaniard as the favourite. Paris-Nice was the race that launched his career and it is no surprise that he has decided to return to France in what could be his final year at the pro level.

 

Contador claims to be more motivated than ever as he wants to go out with a bang. Knowing his mentality, there is little doubt that he has done everything right during the winter and it is hard to imagine that he won’t be flying in 2016. He had a disappointing start in Algarve as he was dropped on the Alto da Foia and it briefly looked like his form was not as good as expected. However, he put 20 seconds into the likes of Thibaut Pinot and Fabio Aru on the relatively short climb of Alto do Malhao on the final day which proves that his poor performance in stage 2 was just a case of a bad day. There is little doubt that Contador is in excellent condition.

 

The flat power prologue doesn’t do him many favours and there is little doubt that he will lose time to the best specialists here. However, he is no poor time triallist and defends himself well even on this kind of course. He rode solidly on the flat Algarve course where he lost 35 seconds to Geraint Thomas who will be one of his key rivals here and in the much shorter prologue he will lose a lot less. He is no longer the time triallist he once was but he is better than he was in the first time after his suspension.

 

Contador has a solid team to keep him protected on the gravel roads and then he has to try to take back the time in the mountains. In these easy uphill finishes, he won’t gain a huge amount of time but he is the big favourite for the Mont Brouilly stage. Looking at the difference he made on Malhao in Algarve, he can expect to take some seconds here and there will be 10 bonus seconds for the stage win too. It will be harder for him to win on La Madone but with a very steep final he has a solid chance to distance the heavier guys. Overall it should be possible for him to take back the time that he will lose in the prologue and if he still needs some seconds, it is not completely impossible that he can make a difference on the final stage as he did when he first won the race in 2007. Hence, Contador is our favourite.

 

For the first time ever, Tom Dumoulin goes into Paris-Nice with a real chance to win the race. He has always been a solid GC contender but after his performance in last year’s Vuelta he has moved into another league. Now he can realistically aim for victory in one-week stage races and Paris-Nice is one of the WorldTour races that suit him the best.

 

Among the GC riders, Dumoulin is the best time triallist and he can expect to get a head start in the prologue. Then the rest of the race will be all about limiting his losses and he should be able to do that pretty well. The climbs are never very steep and it is very hard to drop Dumoulin on the relatively gentle gradients that characterize the terrain around Nice.

 

His big challenge will be Mont Brouilly which is the steepest climb but he is a very powerful rider who can do well on a short climb like this one and even has the punch to contend for the top places. If La Madone is decided in an uphill sprint, he can even win that one and he will be one of the favourites to win the final stage to Nice if a small group of favourites are sprinting for the win. In general, his fast sprint means that he may be able to pick up bonus seconds along the way.

 

Dumoulin’s form is great as he was very strong in the Tour of Oman where he seemed to get better and better on a course that didn’t really suit him. The big challenge could be his team as he may be isolated in the hilly stages 6 and 7. Laurens Ten Dam will be a key rider but he is rarely at his best at this time of the year. If he is in the lead in the final stage, he may have to cover all moves by himself and this could be what ultimately costs him the victory. However, with a good prologue giving him a head start, Dumoulin is one of the big favourites here.

 

Last year Geraint Thomas rode in support of Richie Porte but now he will get the chance to lead Sky in the historic race. The Brit proved his huge climbing potential in last year’s Tour de France and this is really a race that suits him well. He is a great time triallist and even though he is not as powerful as Dumoulin, he is likely to be the second best GC rider in the opening test.

 

On paper, Thomas is probably a slightly better climber than Dumoulin and he should find these gentle gradients to his liking. He is not as fast as Dumoulin but he has a decent punch and should be able to do well in the summit finishes that characterize this race. His form is excellent as he proved in Algarve where he ripped the race to pieces in the wind on Alto da Foia which is very similar to the climbs in this race and he rode a great time trial there as he was third behind Cancellara and Martin. He was in defense mode on Malhao and could definitely have done a lot better. It will probably be all about limiting his losses to Contador on the climbs while also gaining time on Dumoulin and he could be strong enough to do both.

 

Richie Porte is the defending champion but he is not in the condition he was 12 months ago. He admits that he has a lot less expectations for his year’s race. He is aiming for a slower start as he wants to peak at the Tour de France and he has also been set back by a muscle injury which explains his poor performance in Oman.

 

Nonetheless, he has always claimed that Paris-Nice is his first goal of the year and there is little doubt that he will go for another victory. At the Tour Down Under, he also claimed to be far from his best but he ended up crushing the opposition in the queen stage. He is a better time triallist than most of the GC riders and on paper only Contador can match him on the climbs. You can never rule out Richie Porte in Paris-Nice.

 

Wilco Kelderman had a fantastic 2014 season and seemed to be one of the brightest GC talents. However, 2015 was a poor year and it is now time for him to confirm his potential. Luckily, it seems that he is back on track. He was once a great time triallist but suddenly lost the edge. That’s now back as he proved in the second half of 2015 and at the Ruta del Sol where he was a close second behind Tejay van Garderen in the TT. He is even very strong on flat power courses and he will be very close to the best in the prologue.

 

Kelderman still needs to prove that he can return to his best in the mountains as he was slightly off the pace in Andalusia. However, the climbing in this race is not severe and with his explosive skills he should actually find the climbs here to his liking. No one can deny that his form is good and this is obviously a race that suits him.

 

Simon Spilak has turned into the king of the one-week WorldTour races in the first half of the year and he seems to finish in the top 5 in almost all those races. Last year he finally managed to win one as he came out on top in the Tour de Suisse. He was second in Romandie and would probably have won Pais Vasco if he hadn’t had a mechanical in the time trial.

 

Spilak is mostly peaking a little later in the year but he is always competitive in this race. He has had a slow start to the season but was at a decent level in his first races in France which didn’t suit him at all. However, the course doesn’t really suit him. He had preferred some tougher climbing as he is not very explosive and will have a hard time in these uphill finishes. Furthermore, the prologue doesn’t really suit him. He is a good time triallist but only on hilly courses where he is one of the best. He will lose time to the specialists in the prologue and it will be hard for him to take back enough time in the climbing stages here.

 

Rui Costa is another rider that is always strong in this race. The less steep climbs suit him really well and he is a perennial contender here. His form is great as he was very good in Oman and he should again be among the best on the climbs. He is pretty punchy and the summit finishes suit him. Unfortunately, the prologue will be too much about power for him and he will probably lose too much time to have a realistic shot at victory.

 

Ion Izagirre is aiming for one-week races in 2015 and with his Tour de Pologne victory, he has proved that he has the skills to win them. He has been flying all year as he was really strong in Valencia where only a crash in the time trial prevented him from finishing second overall. He had a mixed experience in Algarve where he was strong in the time trial and the first mountain stage but delivered a disappointing performance in the queen stage. Nonetheless, he was second overall. He is an excellent time triallist and while he once seemed to need very hard courses to really excel, he is now also very strong in flat time trials. Hence, he should be able to do well in the prologue but there are bigger specialists than him. Furthermore, he lacks the punch to really excel on the climbs later in the race so a podium spot is probably the best possible result.

 

Tony Gallopin almost won this race last year and now he wants to make up for the disappointment. Last year’s Tour de France revealed that he can now climb with the best, even on longer climbs. The climbs in Paris-Nice suit him even better and with his fast sprint, bonus seconds are within reach. He is also a solid time triallist as he most recently proved in Algarve and so he has the versatile skills that are needed for this race. It will be hard for him to win but the podium is definitely within his reach.

 

Luis Leon Sanchez is a former winner of this race and was once a perennial contender. He has now turned into a domestique but this year he has suddenly been flying again. He was second in Valencia and won the first mountain stage in Algarve before he crashed out in the time trial. He didn’t suffer any major injuries so we can expect him to have maintained his great form. He is a great time triallist and will be one of the best on the prologue and the less steep climb suit him. He is fast in a sprint and will also be able to go for bonus seconds, especially in the last stage. However, he has not been climbing with the best for a couple of years and he will probably lose too much time on Mont Brouilly to win.

 

Romain Bardet is in excellent condition and clearly one of the best climbers in this race. He almost beat Vincenzo Nibali on the Green Mountain in Oman which proves that he has stepped up his level even more. However, the course doesn’t really suit him. He will lose a lot of time in the prologue and La Madone is too easy for him to make a difference. His only real chance to shine will come on Mont Brouilly but that won’t be enough to win the race overall.

 

This race is the first goal for Ilnur Zakarin who has to confirm his potential here. The Russian was at a decent level in Murcia and Algarve and he is likely to be a lot stronger now. However, he didn’t reach the lofty heights of the spring in the second half of 2015 and it still remains to be seen whether his performances in Pais Vasco and Romandie can be repeated. Furthermore, the time trial is way too flat for him and the climbing a bit too easy so it will be hard for him to win this race.

 

Sergio Henao is mainly here to support Geraint Thomas but you can never rule the punchy Colombian out. He was very strong in the Tour Down Under and is likely to be even stronger now. The punchy uphill finishes suit him really well and he could potentially be the rider to challenge Contador on Mont Brouilly if he is allowed to take his own chance. However, he will lose too much time in the prologue to win the race.

 

Finally, Michael Matthews deserves a mention. The Australian is much more than a sprinter and is eyeing the GC in this race for the first time. On this kind of course he has a chance. He is a great prologue rider as he proved last year when he was in the top 10 and he can potentially pick up lots of bonus seconds in the sprint stages, especially on stage 5. He will lose time on Mont Brouilly which will be a challenge for him but if he can hang on there, he will be hard to distance in the final part of the race. La Madone suits him really well and is very similar to the final climb of the stage he won at the 2014 Giro so he could even be in contention for the win. Last year he almost hung onto the best in the stage around Nice and if he can do so this year, he may actually win the race. The problem is the high level of sprinters as it will be hard for him to be in the top 3 in the flat sprints.

 

***** Alberto Contador

**** Tom Dumoulin, Geraint Thomas

*** Richie Porte, Wilco Kelderman, Rui Costa, Simon Spilak

** Ion Izagirre, Tony Gallopin, Luis Leon Sanchez, Romain Bardet, Ilnur Zakarin, Tim Wellens, Sergio Henao, Michael Matthews

* Diego Rosa, Simon Yates, Jesus Herrada, Lieuwe Westra, Jerome Coppel, Sylvain Chavanel, Fabio Felline, Louis Meintjes, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Pierre Rolland, Arthur Vichot, Alexis Vuillermoz, Lilian Calmejane, Chirs Anker Sørensen