Last year the waiting time ended for the classics riders and now it is time for the stage racers to start the first big race of the year. As it is mostly the case, Paris-Nice kicks off with a short, flat prologue in the Northern part of the country and this will be the case again in 2016 when they face a short, flat 6.1km course for the real specialists. With the race set to be decided by very small margins, it will be hugely important and we will know a lot more about the potential overall winners already at the end of the first day.

 

The course

Paris-Nice has usually kicked off with a flat prologue in one of the Parisian suburbs but on a few occasions, the race has had a road stage on the opening day. The novel course in 2014 last saw the riders kick the race off in this way but last year the time trial was back. This year it is again a traditional start as the peloton faces a 6.1km prologue on the opening day.

 

The stage takes place in the city of Conflans-Sainte-Honorine and kicks off on the short of the Seine river. The first 3km will see the riders travel along its shores on a straight, flat road that is tailor-made for the big specialists. With a little less than 4km to go, they will turn left to leave the river and from there the road is mostly very slightly ascending, with a total elevation gain of 33m. There are two roundabouts and three sharp turns in this part of the course but the course doesn’t include many technical challenges. The final sweeping right-hand turn comes 250m from the line.

 

Conflans-Sainte-Honorine has not hosted a stage in recent years.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

This morning many riders were surprised to wake up to snowy conditions and so they will be pleased to know that Sunday should be a nice day with lots of sunshine. The maximum temperature will be 9 degrees and there is only a 10% chance of rain.

 

There will be a relatively constant northwesterly wind which means that the riders will first have a cross-tailwind as they head long the river. From there it will be a mix of a headwind and cross-headwind. The wind may abate slightly and this could be in favour of the later starters.

 

The favourites

There’s always a special feeling about the Paris-Nice prologue which marks the real start of the season for most of the stage race riders. Now it is no longer about preparation. It is time for them to achieve results. This makes everybody nervous for the opening challenge.

 

On paper, a short time trial over just 6.1km shouldn’t make too much of a difference in a race that has lots of climbs later in the race. However, none of the finishing climbs in the two uphill finishes are very hard and it will be hard for the best climbers to take back much time on the strong time triallists. Hence, the prologue will play a very important role in this year’s Paris-Nice and we will already be a lot wiser at the end of the opening test. The important thing to keep an eye on is how much time Alberto Contador will lose to specialists like Tom Dumoulin and Geraint Thomas.

 

Contador is a decent time triallist but this prologue is not for him. Sometimes sprinters do well in such short time trials as they can use their acceleration skills to get back up to speed after the corners. However, this course is one for the really powerful riders as it is mainly made up of long, flat straights and it should mainly be an affair for the specialists. Of course the stage is a short one which suits a certain type of riders but we can expect one of the best time triallists to take the first leader’s jersey in the 2016 Paris-Nice.

 

Luckily it seems that all riders will have largely identical conditions even though the late starters may be favoured slightly. Hence, we should have an honest battle in what will be a true test of power.

 

On paper, Tom Dumoulin is the best time triallist here and it is hard not to put him on top of the list of the favourites. The Dutchman prefers longer, harder and more technical time trials though and this is definitely not his preferred course. However, he has won several short, flat time trials in the past and he can do well on this kind of route too.

 

Last year Dumoulin had been ill before the race and so was not at his best in the prologue. This year he has had a much better preparation. He was very strong in Oman where he rode to fourth place overall and surprised himself by his great ride on the Green Mountain. He has not had any setbacks since then and this race is his first big goal of the year. He has complained a bit about his poor history when it comes to March condition but this year no one can deny that his build-up has been good. We expect Dumoulin to get his GC campaign off to the perfect start with a victory on the first day.

 

His big rival could very well be a compatriot. Jos Van Emden was a great time triallist when he turned professional but for some reason his progress stalled and he disappeared into anonymity. It all changed in 2015 when he finished fifth behind Dennis, Martin, Cancellara and Dumoulin the opening Tour time trial and when he won the star-studded Eneco Tour TT. Those two time trials are comparable to this one and in general he seems to excel over the shorter distances.

 

Van Emden seems to be in reasonable condition. He was good in Qatar where he was second behind an outstanding Boasson Hagen in the time trial and since then he has been working for the team in the classics. In last year’s Tour he was close to Dumoulin and it won’t be impossible to beat him this time.

 

Matthias Brändle is another specialist in short, flat time trials. He beat no less of a figure than Rohan Dennis at last year’s Tour of Belgium prologue and he was in the top in last year’s Tour. The Austrian suffers a bit over the longer distances but in this kind of test he is among the best. However, he has not been doing great time trials in 2016 and so his form is a bit uncertain. However, he is one of the riders who can potentially beat Dumoulin.

 

His teammate Jerome Coppel has the exact opposite preference. He likes the longer, harder time trials and is usually a bit too light for this kind of course. However, he has still done some good prologues in the past and most recently won the short Besseges time trial. That stage included a small climb and so suited him a lot better but it won’t be impossible for him to win this stage. He probably misses a bit of power but the form is definitely there.

 

Geraint Thomas was once one of the best prologue riders in the world but while he has improved his climbing he has lost some power on the flats. That was evident in last year’s prologue where he had to settle for a place of honour. However, he can still do well on a power course as he proved with his third place behind Cancellara and Martin in Algarve and his form is evidently great.

 

 

Sylvain Chavanel has the power to do well in this kind of test. He prefers time trials that are shorter than 20km and so this one should suit him well. He has been in good condition all year, most recently in Rota del Sol where he was fifth in the time trial. He is targeting the GC here and will be eager to start well.

 

Speaking about form, Luis Leon Sanchez stands out. The Spaniard has been flying all year and seems to be back to his best. He was second in the Valencia time trial and last year he was fourth here. He crashed out in Algarve where he showed fantastic form but luckily he escaped any major injury. Like Thomas and Chavanel, he will try to get his GC campaign off to a good start here.

 

The same goes for Wilco Kelderman who has finally returned to his former level in the time trials. He beat Dumoulin at the Dutch Championships and was second behind van Garderen in Ruta del Sol. Last year he was second behind van Emden in the Eneco Tour which proves that he is strong on short, flat courses. His form is clearly good and he should deliver a good performance.

 

His teammate Victor Campenaerts has improved a lot since joining LottoNL-Jumbo. He did an outstanding time trial in Valencia where he was in the top 5 despite crashing early in the stage. He was not at the same level in Algarve but he definitely has the potential to do well.

 

Alexis Gougeard has massive power as proved when he won a Vuelta stage in 2015 and when he delivered a courageous ride in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad last week. This proved that the form is good and he will be eager to do well here. He won the Tour de l’Eurometropole prologue last year and even though that stage had a climb, it proves that he is strong in this kind of test.

 

Lars Boom was once a real time trial specialist but he is no longer the time triallist he once was. Nonetheless, he seemed to improve his level in 2015 and he was fifth in last year’s prologue. His form is a bit uncertain as he was not great in Qatar but he is usually strong in this race.

 

Michael Matthews is known as a sprinter but he can do almost everything. That includes short, flat time trials. Last year he was in the top 10 here and he has won a similar stage at the Tour de Slovenie. He is eyeing both the final GC and a stink in yellow so he will be very motivated.

 

The same goes for Marcel Kittel who hopes to be in yellow at the end of the first stage. That requires him to limit his losses here and he should be able to do so. He started his career as a TT specialist and he can still do a very good TT on a short, flat course. The German has been flying all year so expect him to be close to the best.

 

Finally, we will point to Dmitriy Gruzdev as a joker. The Kazakh is very inconsistent in his time trialling but occasionally he delivers a great ride. He did so in Qatar where he finished fifth in a similar stage and he can create another surprise here.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Tom Dumoulin

Other winner candidates: Jos van Emden, Matthias Brändle

Outsiders: Jerome Coppel, Geraint Thomas, Sylvain Chavanel, Luis Leon Sanchez

Jokers: Wilco Kelderman, Victor Campenaerts, Alexis Gougeard, Lars Boom, Michael Matthews, Marcel Kittel, Dmitriy Gruzdev