Michael Matthews confirmed his extremely versatile talents by taking a surprise in the opening prologue and now goes into the first stage in a strong position to keep the race for the next couple of days. His first challenge will be to survive a very difficult first stage that includes four tough gravel sections and two small climbs in the finale which will make in an extremely nervous day for the GC contenders.

 

The course

The first half of Paris-Nice is usually for the sprinters and the 2016 edition will be no exception. At the same time, it is known for its stressful and windy conditions and many riders have lost the Race to the Sun by missing a split in what should be an easy stage. This year the organizers have added an extra element of stress and nervousness by including gravel roads in the finale of the first road stage of the race.

 

Already on the second day, the riders will start their journey towards the sun as they head over 198km from Condé-sur-Vesgre to Vendome. This part of France is completely flat and there won’t be any major topographical challenges on the long run that will see the riders travel in a southwesterly direction almost all day. In fact, there’s not a single categorized climb in the first part of the stage and the only noteworthy point is the intermediate sprint at the 104km mark.

 

The action will heat up with 30km to go when the riders change direction to approach the finish from the west. With 24.5km to go, they will hit the 14km finishing circuit and from there, the stress will be huge. Just 1.5km later, they will tackle a 1350m gravel section and with 18km to go, there’s a shorter 750m section whose first part is even uphill as the riders will contest a category 3 KOM sprint (1km, 3.7%) 250m from the end of the dirt road. From there, there are just 3.5km to the finish where the riders will contest the final intermediate sprint before doing a full lap of the circuit, meaning that there’s another KOM sprint on offer.

 

The finale is very technical as there are 7 sharp turns before the riders get to a roundabout at the flamme rouge. Then there’s a sharp left-hand turn 500m from the line which is on an 8m wide road. After the gravel road, the road is descending but the final 2km are almost completely flat.

 

Vendome has not hosted a stage finish for more than a decade.

 

The weather

The first stages of Paris-Nice are always only about the weather. Wind can make the races very selective and calm conditions can make them dull. Tomorrow, the riders will only have a bit of sunshine on a mostly cloudy day and there is even a 25% risk of rain.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a northerly direction which manes that the riders will have a cross-tailwind almost all day. With 30km to go, they will turn into a crosswind and it will mostly be a crosswind on the finishing circuit. It will be a cross-headwind on the first gravel sector and a cross-tailwind on the second one. In the technical final kilometres, it will mostly be a headwind but it will be a crosswind on the finishing straight.

 

 

 

 

The favourites

It was no secret that Michael Matthews was a solid prologue rider. After all he finished in the top 10 in last year’s opener at Paris-Nice and he is a former winner of the short Tour de Slovenie time trial. However, there’s a big difference between those results and beating Tom Dumoulin in a WorldTour race and it just goes a long way in proving that we haven’t seen the full extent of his versatile potential yet.

 

It will be interesting to see how far Matthews can go in this race. He has done nothing to hide that he targets a maiden overall victory in a WorldTour race and this is a race that he can actually win. Mont Brouilly will probably be too steep for him but La Madone should suit him well. He can potentially even win the hilly stage around Nice and with lots of bonus seconds on offer, the sprinter may suddenly turn into a dangerous GC contender.

 

At the same time, the prologue saw Alberto Contador lose 15 seconds to Tom Dumoulin whih could prove to be too much as he doesn’t have many opportunities to take back time on the Dutchman who can even pick up bonus seconds along the way. Furthermore, Richie Porte is in much better condition than he had claimed and for him to finish 11th in this kind of test is a clear sign of form. Finally, it was a costly mistake by Rui Costa, Simon Spilak and Wilco Kelderman to start early as the stronger wind clearly cost them some time.

 

However, before we get into the real GC battle, the contenders have to survive two flat stages. The opening stages of Paris-Nice always have the potential to be extremely dangerous. They have always been either been a traditional sprint stage or a brutal battle in the crosswinds. In the former case, the stages have often been very dull and it seems that the organizers have wished to avoid that scenario. The inclusion of four gravel sectors in the finale of the opening stage will make things extremely nervous, especially if the riders are hit by one of the showers that are a possibility.

 

Furthermore, it will be windier than it was forecasted a few days ago and as it will even be a cross-tailwind or a crosswind for most of the day, it will be very dangerous. We doubt that it will be strong enough to split the field but it will make things nervous and fast. That could create some crashes which could cause time losses for the GC riders who all want to be in front.

 

The early break will have no chance. Etixx-QuickStep and Lotto Soudal will control things, maybe with some assistance from Cofidis, and Orica-GreenEDGE are also obliged to lend a hand. Furthermore, the stress will make it so fast that it should all be back together for a very dramatic finale.

 

Sep Vanmarcke targets the stage win and there is little doubt that he will try to attack on the gravel roads. There is no doubt that we will see some split but we are very unlikely to see a small group get clear. Of course it remains to be seen how bad the gravel roads are but the conditions have to be really bad for a breakaway to succeed. Only if the wind really comes into play will it be possible to create a big selection. Nonetheless, crashes could make the race more selective. An interesting twist is the final intermediate sprint which comes at a point where the break is likely to have been caught and this offers an opportunity for some of the fast GC riders like Tony Gallopin, Tom Dumoulin, Michael Matthews, Luis Leon Sanchez and Geraint Thomas to try to pick up some bonus seconds.

 

The outcome of the stage is likely to be a reduced bunch sprint and it is very hard not to put Marcel Kittel on top of the list of favourites. The German has been flying all year, winning his sprint by impressive margins, and he has fully confirmed his status as the fastest rider in the world.

 

Kittel doesn’t have much classics experience but he is a brutally strong rider and there is no reason that he can’t do well on gravel roads. Furthermore, he is surrounded by what is by far the strongest team for these conditions. Tom Boonen, Stijn Vandenbergh and Niki Terpstra will keep him near the front and Nikolas Maes, Boonen and Fabio Sabatini will be on hand to do the lead-out. On paper, they have one of the best trains here so even though the technical finale doesn’t suit him, he should be delivered in a good position. The strongest team, a good lead-out and the fastest sprinter: that’s a winning combination so Kittel will be the man to beat.

 

His biggest rival is probably Alexander Kristoff. The big Norwegian is usually not fast enough to beat the pure sprinters in a real bunch sprint but he actually managed to beat Mark Cavendish in a very easy stage in Qatar. He seems to be faster than ever before and he should find the classics course to his liking as it will make things harder and more selective. He will be one of the best on the gravel roads. He doesn’t have his full train here as Marco Haller is absent but key lead-out man Jacopo Guarnieri is here as is new signing Michael Mørkøv. If Guarnieri can do the lead-outs he did in Qatar, it won’t be easy to beat Kristoff.

 

Nacer Bouhanni seems to be getting better and better and he is here with a great lead-out train. They have not almost done things perfectly but the combination Laporte-Soupe-Bouhanni has a great potential. The gravel sectors are not perfect for a tiny guy like Bouhanni but he is great at positioning himself and should find the technical finale to his liking. If Cofidis can really nail the lead-out, Bouhanni has the speed to win.

 

André Greipel is obviously one of the fastest and he is a great classics rider too. However, he has just returned from a broken rib sustained at the Volta ao Algarve and so is unlikely to be in his best condition. Even more importantly he is here without his train and in fact he doesn’t have a real lead-out man. As he is poor at positioning himself and doesn’t like this kind of technical finale, it will require plenty of luck for him to win but of course you can never rule the German out.

 

We are curious to see how Wouter Wippert will do at this level. He has proved that he has the speed to challenge the very best but how will he handle a classics course like this one. He will be supported by Matti Breschel and Dylan van Baarle but they don’t make up the best train. He lacks some experience but has the speed to win.

 

Usually, we would never point to Michael Matthews in a flat sprint but this one is a bit different. The race will be very hard and the finale is very technical. This means that it will be more for strong riders with good teams. Matthews is in great form and with Mitchell Dochker, Magnus Cort, Sam Bewley and Daryl Impey he has one of the best trains. That could make up for his lack of speed.

 

Trek are here with a great train to support either Niccolo Bonifazio and Edward Theuns. Both are in good form as they were up there in the opening weekend and can do well on this kind of course. We expect them to ride for the Italian but the Belgian may also get his chance. They are probably not fast enough to win but don’t rule them out due to their great train.

 

Arnaud Demare is no longer the sprinter he once was. Until now, his poor results have mainly been due to poor positioning but no one can deny that he was not sprinting well in the opening weekend. However, he is a pretty strong rider and on paper this kind of classics course should suit him. We don’t have too many expectations for him in this stressful finale but it is still too early to rule him out completely.

 

IAM are here with Jonas Van Genechten who rode really well in Kuurne. He doesn’t have much of a lead-out though but Vicente Reynes will be on hand to support him. He won’t win the stage but if he can get through the gravel section in a good position, he will be up there.

 

Daniel McLay proved that he is more than just a sprinter by delivering an amazing performance in the very hard Le Samyn. He won’t have a great lead-out here and it will be hard for him in the big bunch sprints but he seems to have the skills to be up there on a classics course like this.

 

Finally, we will point to Sep Vanmarcke. The LottoNL-Jumbo rider will try to attack on the gravel roads. We doubt that he will have any luck but then he may give it a go in a bunch sprint. He has been fourth in a sprint in Gent-Wevelgem so he can actually do pretty well in a fast finish. His prologue proves tat the form is excellent.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: Alexander Kristoff, Nacer Bouhanni

Outsiders: André Greipel, Wouter Wippert, Michael Matthews, Niccolo Bonifazio

Jokers: Edward Theuns, Arnaud Demare, Jonas Van Genechten, Daniel McLay, Sep Vanmarcke