After two days of survival, it is finally time for the GC riders to try to make a difference in this year’s Paris-Nice. Stage 3 finishes at the top of the Mont Brouilly and even though it’s a very short climb, it’s steep section near the top means that it could very well turn out to be the best opportunity for climbers to take back time before they roll into Nice next Sunday

 

The course

The climbing has usually started on a smaller scale on the fourth day and it will be no different in 2016. However, while the first hilly stage has rarely been enough to create some damage in the fight for the overall win, this year’s first climbing offers a real chance to make a difference as it includes an uphill finish. The final climb is not very long and is maybe more suited to puncheurs but there is no doubt that it will offer the first indication of the climbing hierarchy.

 

The stage consists of an easterly run from Cusset to the top of Mont Brouilly as the riders briefly put their southerly journey on hold. At 168km, it is shorter than the previous stages. The first part is not too challenging as the terrain is only slightly lumpier than it has been in the first two stages until the riders get to the category 3 Cote de Vernay (2.3km, 4.6%) at the 59.5km mark.

 

The riders are now getting closer to the hills in Massif-Central and and after the category 3 Cote de Chateauneuf (2.4km, 5% after 79.5km of racing), the intermediate sprint at the 84km mark signals the start of the real climb. First up is the category3 Cote des Echarmeaux (9.5km, 3.1%) whose summit comes 71.5km from the finish and then it is time for the category Cote des Rochettes (3.1km, 4.5%) and Col du Dut u Avanas (2.8km, 3.7%).

 

The top of the latter climb comes with 51km to go and is followed by a long descent as the riders hit the finishing circuit with 46km to go. They head straight to the bottom of the category 2 Mont Brouilly (3km, 7.7%) which they will tackle for a first time before doing a full lap of the 32km circuit. It is a lumpy affair with very little flat roads and an intermediate sprint with 25.5km to go but there are no categorized climbs until the riders hit the bottom of the Mont Brouilly for the final time.

 

The final climb gradually gets steeper and steeper. The first kilometre averages 6.1%, the second has an average gradient of 7.9% and the final kilometre is the steepest at 9.3%. It’s a very technical climb as the final kilometre includes numerous hairpin bends in quick succession before the riders get onto the 100m finishing straight on a 6m wide road.

 

This stage is the first chance for the GC riders to test their climbing legs and there is little doubt that they will be eager to grab their chance to go for the stage win too. Alberto Contador wants to stamp his authority on the race early on and so it should come down to a battle between the best on the final climb. It’s a relatively short one and as the first part of the stage is not overwhelmingly hard, it is a stage more for punchy climbers and Ardennes specialists. However, the final kilometre is very steep and it will be enough to give the first real indication of who’s going to win the 2016 Paris-Nice.

 

The summit finish has not been used in a major bike race for more than a decade.

 

 

 

 

The weather

This year’s edition of the Race to the Sun really lives up to its nickname. The first stages have been very cold and while sunshine is forecast for the final stages, the riders will have endure what will probably be the toughest day yet on Wednesday. It may be dry and overcast at the start but in the second half of the race, there is a 100% chance of rain. The maximum temperature will only be four degrees.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a southerly direction. This means that the riders will have a crosswind all day until they get to the circuit. Here it will be a cross-headwind on the climb and a tailwind for most of the remaining part of the circuit.

 

The favourites

As predicted yesterday, today’s stage ended up being pretty straightforward. There was no real wind so even though all the big teams were attentive, there was never any risk that it would split because of the wind. However, the finale was a lot more complicated than it looked on paper. Not only did it make it impossible for Etixx-QuickStep to move into position for the sprint, it also created some splits in the finale. Ion Izagirre, Luis Leon Sanchez, Tom Dumoulin, Tim Wellens, Geraint Thomas, Rafal Majka and Ruben Fernandez were attentive but the rest of the main contenders lost at least four second to those riders and some even lost 11 seconds.

 

At the same time, the Nacer Bouhanni’s sprinting could have an impact on the final outcome of the race. It gave Matthews another four bonus seconds so overall he extended his lead by 11 seconds and 15 seconds respectively to his key rivals. He now has a solid buffer and by the way he was sprinting today, his status as an outsider continues to grow.

 

He faces his first big test tomorrow. Mont Brouilly is not a very long climb but it has some very steep sections in the final kilometre and this means that time gaps can be made. Of course they will never be really big on such a short climb but it may still be the best opportunity for the climbers in this race. On paper, La Madone may look harder but is a very gentle climb whose easy gradients will be manageable for most. Even an in-form Alberto Contador will probably only be able to make a small difference on that climb so tomorrow is the stage for the climbers to really go for it.

 

Mont Brouilly featured in the finale of stage 3 at the 2014 Paris-Nice but back then the riders descended to a finish in Belleville. Back then, Tom-Jelte Slagter and Geraint Thomas emerged as the strongest and the stage proved that it is definitely possible to make a difference here but it also proved that the time gaps will be small.

 

In the first two stages, the breakaway escaped right from the gun but that won’t be the case tomorrow. The lumpy course and the bad weather mean that a breakaway has a much better chance and as it is also an important day for the mountains jersey, we should have a bit of a fight to get into the break. This will probably make the break stronger too.

 

However, they won’t have much chance. Alberto Contador and Romain Bardet can’t allow the bonus seconds to be taken by the escapees and they also want to win the stage. Hence, we expect Tinkoff and maybe Ag2r to join forces with Orica-GreenEDGE to control things. The Australians would be pleased to let the break make it if there are no dangerous riders there so we expect Tinkoff to be in charge for most of the day.

 

Contador needs to gain as much time as possible and so he needs it to be a really hard stage. Hence, we expect Tinkoff to go full gas in the hilly zone. Ag2r may lend them a hand as they want to repeat the tactic that was used in the queen stage last year where they also accelerated hard. There will even be crosswind along the way so we could even see some splits even though it is unlikely to happen. Furthermore, the wet roads and tricky descents will make it very important to be in a good position and a team with good descenders may be able to split things in the downhill sections. Positioning will be crucial in what will be a stressful day.

 

The first passage of Mont Brouilly will be an opportunity to make the race hard but it comes too early to be used as an opportunity for the GC riders to attack. With Tinkoff controlling things firmly, we expect it to come down to a final battle on the last climb.

 

Alberto Contador stands out as the best climber in this race. His form is great as he proved in Algarve where he managed to put no less than 20 seconds into an in-form Thibaut Pinot and Fabio Aru on the short Malhao climb. This is just confirmation of his claims that he has been working extremely hard during the winter. He may have delivered a below-par prologue but the climbing legs are definitely there.

 

Mont Brouilly is a bit too short for a climber like Contador but he has proved that he can win on short climbs if the gradients are steep. That’s the case in the final part of this ascent. No one was able to follow Contador on Malhao and we doubt that anyone will be able to do so on Mont Brouilly. Contador is the favourite to win this stage.

 

Going into the race, Richie Porte claimed that he was not at his best as he has been dealing with an injury since Oman. However, he has looked very strong in the first part of the race and did a much better prologue than expected. He has admitted that the form is where it needs to be and he claims to be stronger than he was at the Tour Down Under where he was really in a class of his own on the climbs. On paper, Porte is the only rider who can challenge Contador and he is probably the only rider who can beat the Spaniard.

 

Geraint Thomas is not known as a pure climber but he is constantly getting stronger and stronger. He is very strong on this kind of short climb and he can even handle the very steep gradients. Recall that he was second at the top here two years ago and now he is a much better climber. He has looked very strong in this race and his win in Algarve confirms that the form is good. Already last year he was one of the very best on the climbs in this race and now he is lighter. This could be the chance for Thomas to really prove his climbing potential.

 

On paper, the final climb should be too steep for Tom Dumoulin. However, the big Dutchman won on a much tougher climb at last year’s Vuelta a Espana. He has an amazing power which makes him competitive on a short steep climb like this one and no one is able to gauge his effort better than him. He may have failed to win the prologue but the form is very good as he proved in Oman where he was fourth on the Green Mountain which should actually have been too hard for him.

 

Romain Bardet has already lost a significant amount of time and this is his best chance to take some of it back. Unfortunately, this climb is a bit too short for him but he should find the steep gradients to his liking. He almost beat Nibali on the Green Mountain in Oman so the form is clearly very good and he constantly improves his skill on the climbs. However, we doubt that he will be able to in on this kind of climb.

 

Sergio Henao is here to support Geraint Thomas and it remains to be seen whether he will be allowed to take his own chance. However, this is a climb that suits him really well as he is one of the punchiest guys in the peloton. He is one of the best on short, steep climbs and really has the kick for this kind of challenge. It could be a good idea for Sky to see whether Henao can take away some bonus seconds from Contador. He was strong at the Tour Down Under and is likely to be even stronger now.

 

Rui Costa is always one of the best in Paris-Nice and with his strong showing in Oman, it is unlikely to be any different this time. He did a poor prologue but he claims that the form is good. He is not a real climber but likes this kind of short ascent even though the gradients may be a bit too step for him.

 

Ion Izagirre has a rare chance to lead Movistar in a WorldTour race and he has been flying all year. He excels on short, steep climbs and his excellent time trial proves that the form is still good. At last yearøs Pais Vasco, he proved that he can match the best in this kind of terrain. He is unlikely to win the stage but he should be up there with the best.

 

Wilco Kelderman proved in Andalusia that the form is already good and he confirmed it in the prologue where he did well despite having windier conditions as an early starter. Two years ago he showed his huge potential on the climbs but he was not at the same level in 2015. He was also a bit off the pace in the queen stage of Andalusia and he still has to confirm that he can return to his past level. However, he has the explosiveness to do well here.

 

A great joker is Ilnur Zakarin. He was at an excellent level last spring but failed to confirm his potential in the autumn. This year he has had a quiet start but he actually did a good prologue on a course that didn’t suit him. He is not explosive enough to win here but if he has the legs he had last spring, he will be one of the best.

 

Finally, we will point to Lieuwe Westra and Lilian Calmejane. The Dutchman did the best time trial for several years in the prologue and claims to be in excellent condition. He has been talking about this race since the start of the year and he is very eager to prove that he can return to the level that allowed him to finish second overall in 2012. This year could be the time for him to do so. Calmejane is a neo-pro but he has really had an excellent debut. Of course this race is at a much higher level than his past events but we are curious to see how he will do here.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Alberto Contador

Other winner candidates: Richie Porte, Geraint Thomas

Outsiders: Tom Dumoulin, Romain Bardet, Sergio Henao, Rui Costa

Jokers: Ion Izagirre, Wilco Kelderman, Ilnur Zakarin, Lieuwe Westra, Lilian Calmejane