Common sense prevailed as the organizers decided to cancel one of the most highly anticipated stages of the race but luckily the riders will finally reach the sun in the final four stages of the race. However, the cancellation will have a significant impact on the complexity of the race and while the GC riders wonder how they are going to distance Michael Matthews in the final part of the race, the race leader will be going for more bonus seconds in what should be the final chance for the pure sprinters in this year’s Paris-Nice.

 

The course

The sprinters stepped into the background in stage 3 but still have two potential opportunities to test their sprinting legs before Milan-Sanremo. One of them will come on the fifth day of the race when the riders continue their journey towards the sun with a lumpy run that includes a few climbs but should be a day for the fast riders.

 

The stage will bring the riders over 195.5km from Julienas to Romans-sure-Isere and consists of a long, southerly run through slightly hilly terrain. The category 3 Col de Brouilly (1.8km 4.7%) features already after 19.5km of racing and then a rolling section leads to the first intermediate sprint at the 80.5km mark. The category 3 Cote de Givors (4km, 4.3%) offers another chance to pick up some KOM points after 108km of racing before the riders get to the flattest part of the course that includes the final intermediate sprint 52km from the finish. The final challenge is the category 2 Cote de Saint-Uze (2.8km, 6.5%) but is comes with 32.5km to go and the run-in to the finish is mainly flat.

 

The finale is loaded with roundabout as the riders will turn left or right in three of those inside the final 5km before they get to two turns in quick succession with 1.5km to go. From there, it is almost completely straight but there’s a roundabout 400m from the line which is on a 7m wide road. It is flat in the final 5km.

 

Romans-sur-Isere has not hosted a finish of a major bike race for more than a decade.

 

 

 

 

The weather

It’s not the first time that a Paris-Nice stage has been canceled due to snow but luckily it seems that it will be the last time in this year’s race. The race truly lives up to its nickname “The Race to the Sun” as great weather is forecast for the weekend.

 

It will already get significantly better for stage 4. Thursday will be a mostly sunny day with a maximum temperature of a pleasant 10 degrees. There will be a moderate wind from a northerly direction which means that it will be a tailwind all day until the riders will turn into a cross-tailwind just before they hit the final climb. In the final 5km, it will mainly be a tailwind but it will be a crosswind in the final 1300m.

 

The favourites

When they were still on their bikes, the GC riders were probably pleased when the organizers made the only logical decision to cancel the stage but upon their return to the hotel, they must definitely have some concerns. Mont Brouilly was by far the best opportunity to distance Michael Matthews in this year’s race and it will now become difficult for them to gain enough time on the Australian fastman. La Madone in stage 6 is a real Matthews climb as it is long but never gets very steep. In fact it is very similar to the climb to Montecassino where he won a Giro stage two years ago. He has proved that he can handle the climbs around Nice on the final stage and they will have to go really hard to put him into difficulty there. Obviously Mont Ventoux is too hard for him but it comes very early in the stage and it will take a really committed team effort to take him out of GC contention on that stage.

 

The new situation means that we are going into a very exciting weekend as Tinkoff, Ag2r and Sky now have to make this race as hard as possible. Suddenly, stage 5 can come into play which was definitely not on the cards at the start of the race. However, the climbers may face another time loss before they get there as the flat stage 4 offers Matthews another chance to score bonus seconds.

 

The race really lives up to its nickname as the riders will have sunshine for the rest of the week and there is no risk that we will experience another cancellation on Thursday. Most of the sprinters are still empty-handed and this is the final chance for some of them. Stage 5 could be decided in a reduced bunch sprint but for a guy like Marcel Kittel, this is the chance to win a stage.

 

With a tailwind, there won’t be any risk that things will split up but in the finale, the riders will turn into more of a cross-tailwind which will make things nervous. However, we are unlikely to see any real crosswinds action.

 

With three climbs on the menu, the mountains jersey is up for grabs but the battle for that jersey will be decided in the final three days. For riders eyeing the polka-dot jersey, it will be much better to save energy for the weekend so we expect the break to get clear straight from the gun. Hence, it should be a pretty uneventful day, with Orica-GreenEDGE and Etixx-QuickStep leading the chase with some late assistance from Katusha and maybe Cofidis and FDJ. The intermediate sprints won’t come into play.

 

The real test is the final climb. It is pretty hard and comes so close to the finish that it will be possible to distance Kittel and other sprinters for good. However, other sprinters could come into difficulty as well and we only see Orica-GreenEDGE potentially giving it a go by riding hard on the climb. They probably prefer to save energy for the weekend so we expect the pace to be modest on the ascent and all of the sprinters are likely to survive. Hence, we expect a full bunch sprint.

 

It’s another tricky finale with numerous roundabouts and positioning will again be crucial. This makes it a day for the best lead-out trains and the sprint will be more about team support than actual speed. It will be crucial to be in one of the front positions in the final roundabout. The technical finale makes the stage similar to stage 2 but there’s an important difference as the finishing straight is flat.

 

It has been a disastrous race for Marcel Kittel until now. The German was dropped in the finale on stage 1 and Etixx-QuickStep made a big mistake in stage 2 by moving up way too late. In the technical finale, the narrow road made it impossible for them to get into position and already with several kilometres to go, it was evident that the German would never be in contention for the sprint. Furthermore, he is complaining about bad legs and he has not felt good in the first stages.

 

However, not one can deny that Etixx-QuickStep have an extremely powerful team here and they won’t make that mistake twice. Kittel will be extra motivated this time and the entire team will be spurred on by the disappointment. On paper, only Katusha can match their train and we think that it is time for them to get their revenge.

 

There is little doubt that Kittel will be the fastest in this kind of flat sprint so it will all be question of positioning. Fabio Sabatini has done an amazing job for Kittel in the first part of year and has huge experience. That should be enough to ensure Kittel a good position. The main problem is the late climb which could take the sting out of his legs but he has proved to be in very good condition – just recall how well he was climbing in Dubai. We put our money on a Kittel win.

 

Tuesday was the day of the failed lead-outs. For the first time this year, Katusha failed to dominate a sprint. They moved up way too late and Jacopo Guarnieri had to drop Alexander Kristoff off way to far back. As the Norwegian also had to close a small gap when Mickael Delage dropped back to find Arnaud Demare, it was evident that he would not be in contention for the win.

 

The team missed a bit of firepower in the finale and it is a bit of a mystery why Marco Haller is doing Tirreno-Adriatico as he is dearly missed in France. However, no one can deny that Guarnieri has probably been the best lead-out man during the past 12 months and no one can deny Kristoff is in great condition. This is a stage about lead-outs and as it also comes after several days of hard racing, it should suit Kristoff who has proved that he doesn’t have to fear anyone in the sprints.

 

The third great lead-out in this race is the Cofidis train. Even though Geoffrey Soupe has been riding poorly, they have still been able to deliver Nacer Bouhanni perfectly in both sprints. Christophe Laporte has taken over the role of final lead-out man and Cyril Lemoine has done a great job too. Bouhanni is clearly one of the fastest riders in this year’s race and he loves this kind of technical finale. He will be extremely motivated to get his revenge after the relegation and if Cofidis can nail the lead-out again, he won’t be easy to beat.

 

Usually, we would never point to Michael Matthews in a flat sprint like this one but after his victory yesterday it seems that he is sprinting better than ever. However, that stage had an uphill finish and it will be harder for Matthews to win this one. On the other hand, Orica-GreenEDGE have a great lead-out train with Daryl Impey and Magnus Cort and that can make all the difference in this kind of sprint.

 

Another great train is the Trek lead-out. Boy van Poppel is not at his best but an in-form Edward Theuns did a great job to position Niccolo Bonifazio on stage 2. The Italian is usually not fast enough to beat the real sprinters in this kind of flat sprint but as this is more about lead-outs than real speed, he definitely has a chance.

 

We will again point to Wouter Wippert. The Dutchman has not had much luck yet but he remains one of the fastest riders in this field. He is usually good at positioning himself and the form is good as he was there in the finale of the rough stage 2. He is getting more used to his lead-out men Matti Breschel and Patrick Bevin and he has the speed to win.

 

Arnaud Demare has already won a stage but it will be harder for him to come out on top in this one. This is more about positioning than speed and the former French champion is always way too far back. Michael Delage is a good lead-out man but he doesn’t have the power of the biggest trains. Demare has the speed to win but that may not be enough here.

 

Usually, André Greipel would be one of the big favourites for this kind of stage but that’s not the case here. He is without any of his lead-out men and will have to rely on GC riders Tim Wellens and Tony Gallopin to keep him into position. Furthermore, Greipel always finds it hard to fight for position so he is unlikely to get the chance to show his speed.

 

Finally, we will point to Davide Cimolai. Mark Kump was the Lampre-Merida sprinter in stage 2 but with a harder course this should be a day for the Italian. He hasn’t been in great condition yet and this is not really a great sprint for him. However, Lampre-Merida have a solid team to lead him out so he may b able to finally deliver some success to Lampre-Merida.

 

For more sprinters,look to Jonas Van Genechten, Adrien Petit, Ben Swift, Daniel McLay, Jose Joaquin Rojas, Leonardo Duque and the Dimension Data duo of Tyler Farrar and Youcef Reguigui.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: Alexander Kristoff, Nacer Bouhanni

Outsiders: Michael Matthews, Niccolo Bonifazio, Wouter Wippert

Jokers: Arnaud Demare, André Greipel, Davide Cimolai