After a seven-year absence, Mont Ventoux will be back on the menu in Paris-Nice but with a very unusual role as an early legbreaker in stage 5. This sets the scene for a hugely unpredictable day that can be won by several different kinds of riders and where team tactics can really come into play.

 

The course

A popular element of the Paris-Nice course is the famous climb of Mont Ventoux which was last climbed in 2008. The mountain has sometimes played a big role in deciding the race when it has been used as a summit finish even though the early time of the year has prevented the riders from going all the way to the top. This year it is back on the menu but it a very unusual role as an early test in a moderately hilly stage and so the sprinters may get the rare chance to win a stage that includes one of the hardest climbs in cycling.

 

The stage will bring the riders over 196km from Saint-Paul-Troix-Chateaux to Salon-de-Provence. From the start, the riders will travel along flat roads in a southeasterly direction to approach the Giant of Provence, with an intermediate sprint coming after just 23.5km of racing and offering a chance for the sprinters to score some points for the green jersey. The category 3 Col de la Madeleine (1.6km, 4.1%) serves as a warm-up at the 49.5km mark and then it is time for the main menu, the category 1 climb to the Chalet Reynard on the Ventoux. It’s a 9.5km climb with an average gradient of 9.3% and with no room for recovery as the gradient barely drops below the 8% mark.

 

The top comes 124.5km from the finish and leads to a descent to the city of Sault as the riders are now travelling in a southerly direction. There’s a gradual uphill drag halfway down before the riders complete the descending. Then the climbing start again with the category 2 Col du Pointu (5.9km, 4.1%) before a flat section with the final intermediate sprint 57km from the finish leads to the final two challenges. The category 2 climbs of Cote de la Roque-d’Antheron (4.2km, 5.5%) and Col de Seze (1.7km, 7.2%) come in quick succession as the riders zigzag their way in the hilly terrain east of the finishing city, with the final summit being located with 26.5km to go. From there it is a flat run to the finish.

 

The finale is very technical. A long straight road with two roundabouts leads to a sharp turn just before the flamme rouge. Then there are two 90-degree turns in quick succession before the riders get onto the 400m finishing straight that is 7m wide. The road is slightly descending until the final kilometre which is flat.

 

Salon-de-Provence hosted a stage finish of the 2001 Tour Mediteraneen. Back then, Jimmy Casper won a bunch sprint.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

After days in cold and wintry conditions, the riders have finally reached the sun. Friday will be a beautiful sunny day with a maximum temperature of 15 degrees.

 

There wil be a moderate wind from a northerly direction which means that the riders will first have a cross-tailwind and a crosswind on Mont Ventoux. From there, it will mainly be a tailwind but there will be a short headwind second on the final climb. Then it’s a crosswind and finally a tailwind until the riders get to the very technical finale just before the flamme rouge. It will be a crosswind sprint.

 

The favourites

The sprinters had been looking forward to having one final chance in today’s stage but one should never underestimate the lumpy terrain in the Drome department. The stage turned out to be much harder than the likes of Marcel Kittel and Wouter Wippert had imagined and all the Etixx-QuickStep work was in vain. Now the German faces three days of suffering and will leave France without having done a single sprint.

 

Meanwhile, the gamble really paid off for Cofidis. It was risky business for them to let Katusha bring the strong trio back in the finale but the strategy turned out to be a wise one. Kristoff had to use Michael Mørkøv earlier than planned and only had Jacopo Guarnieri left for the lead-out. That was not enough against the formidable Cofidis train and Christophe Laporte again proved his skills as a great lead-out man to deliver Nacer Bouhanni to a revenge victory.

 

For most of the sprinters, the rest of the race will be a matter of survival but some of them may still fancy their chances in stage 5. It’s a very strange one where Mont Ventoux will play a very unusual role as an early leg breaker. This opens the door for a lot of different scenarios and everything will depend on how the GC rider approach the stage and that all depends on how much they fear Michael Matthews.

 

The final climbs in the race are manageable for Matthews bot Mont Ventoux is definitely too hard. If the GC teams really fear him, they have to try to distance him here. However, it requires a massive effort to keep a chasing bunch at bay over more than 120km, especially because the group will be pretty small at the top if they have distanced the race leader.

 

If the GC riders have any kind of plans, they will have to send riders up the road. That will set the scene for a tactical battle in the first part of the stage. At the same time, this is the stage that can be won by a strong breakaway and the mountains jersey also comes into play. We can expect a huge battle right from the start and we may even get to the lower slopes of Ventoux without a break having gone clear. At the same time, the cross-tailwind could even create some splits in what will be a very fast start.

 

We will definitely see some attacks on Ventoux from some of the climbers that are out of the GC battle but the most interesting will be to see whether Tinkoff or Ag2r want to try to do some damage. Both have some really powerful teams of climbers and they may set a pretty fast pace. However, knowing that it will be hard to do any real damage, it will probably more be a case of tiring out their rivals than trying to distance anyone.

 

After the climb we expect some kind of regrouping unless Matthews has been left behind. In that case, we could have a big pursuit in the final part of the stage but the most likely scenario is that a big part of the bunch will get back together. However, we are also destined to have a very strong break so it will definitely be a very fast finale.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE want to win the stage in a reduced bunch sprint but Matthews’ GC rivals will be pleased to see the bonus seconds be taken away. Hence, Orica-GreenEDGE will probably have to do most of the work themselves and it will be very hard to control the finale. The two late climbs are perfect launch pads for attacks so even if they manage to bring the early break back, new attacks could challenge them – just like it happened in today’s stage.

 

Much will depend on whether the break contains riders that are close on GC. The time gaps are still not very big so there is a big chance that some of the other GC teams may be forced to lend them a hand. Secondly, it will depend on whether the likes of Alexander Kristoff and Nacer Bouhanni have made it over the climbs. Both are pretty strong climbers and even though they will suffer on the Ventoux, they should be able to get back. The final climbs could be challenging but we expect both to handle them. The most likely scenario is a reduced bunch sprint but it could also be decided by a breakaway.

 

If it’s a reduced sprint, there is no doubt that Michael Matthews will be there. He is one of the best climbers in this race and he is sprinting better than ever. He will regret the fact that the finale is not slightly uphill as he is usually not fast enough to beat Kristoff and Bouhanni here. However, if both are distanced, he will be the fastest. Furthermore, he likes this kind of technical finish which means that it is less about speed. Matthews will also be fresher at the finish and this could give him the upper hand. Finally, lead-out will be important in this kind of finish and if Orica-GreenEDGE have not been forced to chase too hard, he will be able to count on fast riders like Michael Albasini and Daryl Impey. This makes Matthews our favourite to win the stage.

 

Fabio Felline has lost time in the crosswind and so he will be given lots of freedom to attack. He is an excellent climber and very fast in a sprint. Furthermore, he has proved that he can even beat Michael Matthews and so he can win the stage from both a breakaway and a reduced bunch sprint. He will find the technical finale to his liking.

 

One rider that should definitely be there is Ben Swift. The Brit almost climbs as well as Matthews. He is not fast enough to win the big sprints but in a smaller field he definitely has a chance. He has proved that the form is excellent and he has actually been positioning himself better than he usually does. He definitely has the speed to challenge Matthews.

 

Alexander Kristoff has come up short until now. Today it was not a lack of speed but a case of a poor lead-out as Katusha had been working too hard. There is little doubt that Kristoff is faster than Matthews and he is usually almost unbeatable when the sprint comes at the end of a hard day. However, he doesn’t climb as well as Matthews but as Ventoux comes very early, he should be able to make it back. It will be a hard challenge to survive the final two climbs but it’s definitely not impossible. The technical finale doesn’t suit him perfectly but he is great at positioning himself in a sprint where it will be difficult to make a real lead-out.

 

Nacer Bouhanni is known as a sprinter but people tend to forget that he actually climbs really well. In the 2014 Vuelta, he was up there with the GC riders in a stage won by Daniel Navarro. In general, he is always very good on short climbs while he suffers a bit more on the longer ascents. This stage could very well be too hard for him but it’s not impossible for him to make it to the finish. If he is there, he will find the technical finale to his liking.

 

The Trek pair of Niccolo Bonifazio and Edward Theuns will be interesting. The pair are both solid climbers and especially Theuns is probably in the form of his life. Both may be able to survive the climbs and then they will be able to support each other. That will be of utmost importance in this kind of technical finish.

 

As said, a breakaway definitely has a chance here and can be won by riders that are no long-term GC dangers, are strong in relatively flat terrain, climb well and have a fast sprint. Jesus Herrada fits the bill perfectly. He is in outstanding form as has proved all year but he has punctured out of GC contention. The Spaniard has all the skills to do well here as he is a great climber and very fast in a sprint.

 

Patrick Bevin has all the skills to do well in this stage. He can both win the stage from a breakaway and from a reduced sprint. He is not as fast as Matthews but may come out on top in this kind of technical finale. His best chance will be to attack but due to his good GC position he may not get enough freedom.

 

Sep Vanmarcke was close in today’s stage and his rivals won’t be too concerned with him as a GC contender. He will be eager to again test his condition for the classics and will also go for a stage win. Ventoux will be a big challenge for him but if he can get away earlier or later, he has the strength to be part of a successful breakaway and the speed to win.

 

Alexey Lutsenko has looked really strong in this race and was already on the attack in stage 3 when it was cancelled. This is a perfect stage for him as he is a good climber, strong on the flats and fast in a sprint. He is a real master in finishing it off from breakaways. Simon Geschke shares many of the same characteristics but may have to stay with Tom Dumoulin.

 

Like Vanmarcke, Sylvain Chavanel was close in today’s stage and he will definitely try again. He is strong in this terrain and fast in a sprint but is also a GC threat. Finally, we will point to youngsters Oliver Naesen and Odd Christian Eiking as very interesting joker picks.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Michael Matthews

Other winner candidates: Fabio Felline, Ben Swift

Outsiders: Alexander Kristoff, Nacer Bouhanni, Edward Theuns, Niccolo Bonifazio

Jokers: Jesus Herrada, Patrick Bevin, Sep Vanmarcke, Alexey Lutsenko, Simon Geschke, Sylvain Chavanel, Oliver Naesen, Odd Christian Eiking