As expected Mont Ventoux failed to do any damage and so the climbers only have two chances left if they want to make a difference. The first challenge in a very hilly weekend is the queen stage but a relatively easy final climb means that the course looks harder on paper and it may fail to open the gaps that are needed for the climbers to win the race

 

The course

In recent years, Paris-Nice has usually included a summit finish on a climb that is longer than what is usually seen in France at this time of the year. That will again be the case in 2016 when the riders will tackle a very hard queen stage on the penultimate day of the race. It includes a new mountaintop finish on La Madone d’Utelle which has never been used in a major bike race before but as it is a relatively easy climb, it may create less damage than one would expect.

 

The riders have reached Nice one day earlier than usual in 2016 and the penultimate stage will start from the city where it will all end 24 hours later. It will bring the riders over 177km to the top of La Madone d’Utelle and barely includes a single metre of flat roads as the riders zigzag their way through the hilly terrain north of the city.

 

After a short, flat run along the coast, the climbing gets serious right from the start as the rider head into the hills via the category 2 Cote de Gattieres (4.5km, 4.8%) whose top comes after just 10km of racing. Then a short, relatively easy section leads to the category 3 Cote de Coursegoules (11.5km, 4.4%), summiting at the 50km mark. The first intermediate sprint comes just 2.5km later and then it’s time for a long descent.

 

The riders will get back into climbing mode at the 83km mark where they tackle the category 2 Cote de la Sigale (7.3km, 4.9%) and category 1 Cote d’Asoros (8.5km, 5.4%) in quick succession before they take on a long descent that almost brings them back to sea level.

 

That will be the final chance to recover as the final 40km are very tough. First the riders will head up the category 3 Cote de Levens (6.2km, 5.5%) and then contest the final intermediate sprint before they tackle the short, steep category 2 climb of Cote de Duranus (1.6km, 8.4%). The summit comes with just 20km to go and there’s just a short descent before the riders hit the bottom of the 15.3km category 1 climb to the finish. It averages 5.7%) but never gets very steep and is a relatively gentle affair. The first half is the hardest with a few kilometres at more than 7% but there is plenty of room for recovery with some easier sections. The hardest kilometre comes with 6km to go where it averages 9.3% but from there the climb is very easy at 3-6% until the riders hit the final 300m ramp that averages 10.9%. The climb is a scenic one with numerous hairpin turns. The final turn comes 150m from the line which is on a 6m wide road.

 

The climb has never hosted a finish of a major bike race before.

 

 

 

 

The weather

There is no risk that we will have another cancellation of a summit finish. Saturday will have a cloudy start but it will be sunshine in the afternoon. The maximum temperature at the bottom of the final climb will be 16 degrees.

 

There will only be a light wind from a southerly direction which means that it will mainly be a mix of tail- and crosswind throughout the day. It will be a tailwind on the penultimate climb and the descent. On the final climb, it will be a mix of head- and tailwind as they tackle the many hairpin bends but it will mainly be a cross-headwind in the final five kilometres.

 

The favourites

As expected, no one was really willing to commit themselves to a big move on Mont Ventoux so stage 5 failed to do any real damage in the overall standings. Tinkoff made a strange move on the hardest climb but it wasn’t easy to find out what the plan really was. Alberto Contador was never going to get away and there was plenty of time for a regrouping to take place.

 

However, the loser was probably Michael Matthews. A big hesitation meant that the team failed to bring Alexey Lutsenko back and prevent Alexander Kristoff from getting back. He still had Daryl Impey at his side but for some reason he never really hit the front after the penultimate climb. Whether it would have been enough is hard to know but it could potentially have cost him bonus seconds and stage win.

 

At the same time, Alexey Lutsenko suddenly emerged as a GC candidate. Yesterday we metioned him as a potential winner from a breakaway and he lived up to our confidence. He has looked very strong throughout the entire race and is strong in this kind of terrain. Of course today’s effort has cost some energy but it won’t be a surprise if he is up there in the weekend. Remember that he has been second in a big mountain stage at the Vuelta.

 

In any case, tomorrow is the big day for the climbers. The final stage to Nice offers a second opportunity but it’s far less certain that differences can be made there. The queen stage offers the best chance but it won’t be easy to create big gaps. The final climb may be long but it’s very easy. The hardest part comes on the lower slopes but a lot of riders will be able to stay in contact in the easy second part. At the same time, there will mostly be a headwind which will make it even easier to follow wheels and harder for a lone rider to maintain any kind of gap. Only the final 300m are steep but you can only gain seconds over such a short distance. Romain Bardet said before the race that strong classics riders won’t be afraid of this climb and he is definitely right.

 

The challenge of the stage is the overall amount of climbing was there are very few flat roads and people will be very tired by the time we get to the final climb. BMC, Tinkoff and Ag2r want the race to be as hard as possible and they will go full gas all day. At the same time, many riders will be eyeing a stage win and we can expect it to be war right from the beginning, with the mountains jersey being an extra incentive. With a tough start, we can expect a very strong break to get clear.

 

However, they are unlikely to have any chance. Contador is in desperate need of bonus seconds so Tinkoff will take control. They have a very strong team of climbers and should be able to bring the break back. At the same time, they will go full gas on all the climbs in an attempt to make things as hard as possible.

 

Contador has a double mission. First of all, he needs to get rid of Matthews. There is no doubt that Matthews can handle all these climbs as they are not very steep. However, the main question is whether the total amount of climbing will be too much for him. Especially the penultimate climb which is the steepest, offers a chance to distance the race leader. Either Matthews will crack completely or he will be right up there until the final 300m.

 

Contador also needs to put time into the likes of Richie Porte, Tom Dumoulin and Geraint Thomas and that will be even harder. They can all handle these climbs and it is very hard to imagine that Contador will be able to get rid of them on the final climb which is way too easy. There is little doubt that he will give it a try and he will use Rafal Majka to make it really hard but he won’t take a solo win here. He may be strongest in the final 300m but that won’t be enough to gain much time.

 

There are two most likely scenarios in this stage. One is that we will have a small sprint from a small group on the final ramp. The second is that no one is able to get clear and with little domestique reserves left, an opportunistic rider who is not a GC contender may take off on the final climb and use the tactical battle to win the stage. However, as Contador really needs the bonus seconds, we expect the best riders to battle it out in the final 300m.

 

This means that it’s a stag more for punchy riders than real climbers and that makes it a perfect day for Sergio Henao. Of course his main goal is to work for Geraint Thomas but we don’t expect Sky to take the initiative. This should give the Colombian a chance to play his own card in the uphill sprint. He may not be able to follow the best on a long mountain but he is one of the very best in on a steep ramp. It is no coincidence that he has been second in Fleche Wallonne and is a perennial contender in Pais Vasco. None of the big favourites have a kick like Henao on this kind of climb and he looked extremely strong on the penultimate climb in today’s stage. The overall length of the climb may take the sting out of his legs and he may lose out due to team tactics but the Colombian is our favourite to win this stage.

 

Of course Alberto Contador has to be mentioned as one of the favourites. The Spaniard is reasonably punchy and he is the best climber here. Usually, he would be no match to the punchier guys on a short ramp but as it comes at the top of a long climb at the end of a hard stage and as the gradients are really steep, the Spaniard may be strong enough to win even though he is unlikely to gain much time.

 

Another great uphill sprinter is Tom-Jelte Slagter. After a disappointing season, he really proved his class in last year’s Tour of Alberta and when he is at 100% of his capabilities, he is hard to beat on a short, steep ramp. He has already won a stage in Haut Var and he has looked very strong in this race. Again the overall length of the climb could be challenging for him but if he is there at the end for the sprint, he will be one of the fastest.

 

Richie Porte is the only rider who is able to match Contador in a direct battle on a climb. However, like the Spaniard, he will have a hard time on this climb. On the other hand, he seems to be very strong and has expressed lots of confidence. When you can win on the Willunga Hill in Australia, you have the punch to also win this kind of stage.

 

Another fast rider in an uphill sprint is Tom Dumoulin. The big Dutchman is very punchy and it is no coincidence that he has always targeted the Ardennes classics. His form is clearly very good and he will be keen to protect his position as the top rider of the pre-race favourites. No one will be able to drop him on these gentle gradients. The main issue is whether the final ramp is a bit too steep for him to be really competitive in a sprint.

 

Tony Gallopin has been relatively anonymous until now but seemed to be pretty strong when he attacked in stage 2. Furthermore, he rode really well in Algarve and he is constantly getting better on the climb. Last year he took a massive step up and in the Tour de France he realized that he could be competitive on the Mur de Huy which he has usually regarded as being too steep for him. Everybody knows that he is very fast so this is a great stage for him.

 

Geraint Thomas is definitely one of the strongest riders here and he should find the climb to his liking. However, it is not hard enough for him to drop his rivals and that will make it hard for him to win the stage. He is pretty fast but has never really excelled in uphill sprints.

 

Rui Costa is faster than Thomas and proved that he is good form in Oman. He did a poor prologue but has looked strong since then despite an obvious lack of team support. He should be one of the fastest in a sprint but is unlikely to win unless he makes a late move.

 

A joker is Patrick Bevin. The Cannondale rider is having an amazing European WorldTour debut. He can climb and he can sprint. Last year he won the queen stage of the Herald Sun Tour in this kind of punchy uphill sprint. He crashed in today’s stage so it remains to be seen how he has recovered and this is obviously the hardest race he has ever done. It will be interesting to see what he can do.

 

As said, there may be riders that can benefit from a tactical battle to make a late move. Tim Wellens is a GC contender and so may not have much freedom but as he is not one of the favourite, he could get come space. The same goes for Serge Pauwels who has already lost some time, and Dries Devenyns and Ruben Fernandez who nobody really fears. Lieuwe Westra claims to be as strong as he was in 2012 and he also has the right aggressive mindset without being regarded as an outright favourite. Finally, we will point to the amazing neo-pro Lilian Calmejane who has proved to have the punch for this kind of finish.

 

Michael Matthews and Alexey Lutsenko deserve a mention. We doubt that any of them will win the stage as the finale is too steep but they could very well both be up there right until the end.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Sergio Henao

Other winner candidates: Alberto Contador, Tom-Jelte Slagter

Outsiders: Richie Porte, Tom Dumoulin, Rui Costa, Geraint Thomas

Jokers: Patrick Bevin, Tim Wellens, Serge Pauwels, Dries Devenyns, Ruben Fernandez, Lieuwe Westra, Lilian Calmejane