It’s not even on the UCI calendar but the People’s Choice Classic has built a reputation as the real curtain raiser for the new cycling season. The short, flat criterium always comes down to the expected bunch sprint but plays an important role as it allows the riders to get one race in their legs before the Tour Down Under and the battle for WorldTour points will kick off on Tuesday.

 

The course

The People’s Choice Classic will be held on the same 1.7km circuit that has been used for several years. It is completely flat and only has two sharp 90-degree turns, the final of those coming more than one kilometre from the finish on Rundle Road. Furthermore, there are a number of sweeping turns but in general there won’t be much need to brake on what is a very fast and flat course in the centre of Adelaide.

 

The riders will do a total of 30 laps on the circuit for an overall distance of 51km. There will be sprint primes on offer at the end of the 5th, 10th, 15th and 20th lap.

 

 

The weather

The Tour Down Under and the People’s Choice Classic are known for their brutally hot conditions and it seems that the first few days of racing will be no different. With a maximum temperature of 33 degrees and bright sunshine, Sunday is set to be very hot and it should still be more than 30 degrees for the evening criterium.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a westerly direction which means that the riders will have a tailwind in the middle section of the circuit before they turn into a cross-headwind and then a headwind for the sprint.

 

The favourites

The cycling world is loaded with criteriums but none of them is as competitive as the People’s Choice Classic. The race is not even on the UCI calendar but it is the only criterium in the world that can line up a full field of WorldTour teams. The riders may be far from their best condition but that doesn’t prevent the racing from being furiously fast.

 

The race was once a part of the Tour Down Under which was always bookended by criteriums in Adelaide. A few years ago, the organizers decided to take the opening criterium out of the stage race and hold it as a standalone event with the same field as the WorldTour event. That allows the riders to get a race in their legs and the sprinters to test their speed but the GC riders are no longer forced to take any unnecessary risks in the hectic finale. The final criterium is still part of the stage race but the opening day is now just a warm-up event.

 

Of course it means that it is less prestigious than the stages next week but as it is the first race for most of the riders, it is still a very special event. It is no secret that confidence and momentum mean a lot for sprinters and there is no better way to start the year than by winning the first sprint of the season. On the other hand, a win in the People’s Choice Classic is no guarantee for success – just look at what happened to Marcel Kittel after he won last year’s race.

 

Criteriums are usually decided in bunch sprints and the People’s Choice Classic is no different. There are a lot of classy sprinters at the start and they are all motivates to test themselves. The course is not technical and so doesn’t offer many chances for attackers to create any surprises. The race has always been decided in a sprint and it is very unlikely to be any different in 2016.

 

The race is likely to follow the traditional script. We will have a bit of attacking in the first part before a breakaway is established. It has often featured some pretty big names that are keen to do a good workout before things get really serious on Tuesday. They will battle it out for the sprint primes while the sprint teams will take control of the situation. In such a short race, the gap is unlikely to get very big and it will probably never reach the one-minute mark.

 

While many teams know that they won’t win this kind of fast, flat sprint and so are content to just follow the peloton, IAM, Orica-GreenEDGE, Cannondale, Trek and Drapac will be very keen to get the win. Those five teams are likely to take responsibility for the chase and make sure that it comes down to the expected bunch sprint.

 

The circuit is non-technical and flat and the sprint comes at the end of a very short race. This means that it is a race for the pure sprinters that can reach the highest speed. With the headwind, timing will be crucial and history shows that lead-outs usually play a key role in Adelaide.

 

IAM finished last in the WorldTour in 2015 and aim to do better in 2016. To reach that goal, they have strengthened their lead-out as they want to give Matteo Pelucchi better support. That’s a very good strategy as the Italian has proved that he has the speed to beat the fastest riders in the world. He has won a stage in Tirreno-Adriatico and last year he won two stages against a classy sprint field in the Tour de Pologne. He had bad luck in the grand tours but he has proved that he is one of the fastest in the WorldTour.

 

Pelucchi is a pure sprinter and he is tailor-made for this kind of easy, flat race. Furthermore, he has traditionally been very strong right from the beginning of the year and in 2015 he beat the likes of Greipel and Viviani in the two sprint races of the Challenge Mallorca to mark himself out as the sprinter of the first few weeks of the season. As IAM aim to get the momentum going, we expect him to hit the ground running.

 

There are several very fast riders in this race but Pelucchi has a clear advantage when it comes to the lead-out. Roger Kluge, Aleksejs Saramotins, David Tanner and new signing Leigh Howard are all fast and apart from the Australian, they have all worked together in the past. None of the major trains are present in this race and we expect IAM to be the best team to prepare the sprint. As they also have one of the two fastest sprinters, Pelucchi is our favourite to win the race.

 

Pelucchi’s biggest rival will undoubtedly be Caleb Ewan. The Australian is set to be the next star sprinter and had a marvelous debut season that included 11 wins and a stage victory in his debut grand tour. He has been in great form right from the beginning of the year as he won three races in the Bay Classics and the national criterium championships. The road race proved that he still lacks a bit of endurance in the harder races but he is ready to go for this kind of flat, fast race.

 

There is no doubt that Ewan and Pelucchi are the two fastest riders in this race but the Italian has his lead-out as a key asset. That’s not the case for Ewan as Orica-GreenEDGE is mostly built for the Tour Down Under GC. Daryl Impey is one of the best lead-out riders in the world and Michael Hepburn and Mathew Hayman also have lead-out experience. The same goes for Simon Gerrans but he is unlikely to take any risks two days before the start of the Tour Down Under.

 

We doubt that Orica-GreenEDGE are strong enough to go up against IAM and this is what could prevent Ewan from winning the race. On the other hand, Impey is one of the most experienced lead-out men in the world and he can make a vast difference. If he can position Ewan reasonably, he has the speed to beat Pelucchi.

 

Another big-name sprinter at the start is Giacomo Nizzolo. The Italian rode poorly in the event last year when illness meant that he had had a far from ideal preparation. This year things are different and he has made it clear that he is aiming for a strong start. His numerous second places in the Giro d’Italia prove that he is one of the fastest guys in the race.

 

Nizzolo is not a pure sprinter though and this short criterium may be a bit too easy for him. However, he has proved that he is one of the best riders in the world when it comes to positioning and with Boy Vna Poppel at his side, he can count an experienced lead-out man with whom he has enjoyed lots of success. An in-form Jack Bobridge and new signing Kiel Reijnen both have the power for the lead-out too and if Ewan and Pelucchi mess things up, Trek-Segafredo will be ready to strike.

 

Wouter Wippert won the final criterium in Adelaide in 2015 and his sprints in the Tour of California also proved that he has the speed to match the fastest sprinters in the world. He has specifically asked his new Cannondale team to ride in Australia and he is aiming for a winning start. There is no doubt about his motivation and he claims to be lighter and in better condition that he was 12 months ago. There is no doubt that he has the speed to win but the challenge will be to position himself. Patrick Bevin, Ruben Zepuntke and Alberto Bettiol should all be able to do a good lead-out but the group does not have any experience in working together and this could be costly in the Australian races.

 

Wippert’s replacement at Drapac is Brenton Jones who has gone from being the second sprint option to being number one. The Australian is very talented and got a big win at the Tour of Hainan last year. He has already been second behind Ewan numerous times at the Bay Classics and the criterium at Nationals so his form is definitely there. Furthermore, he can rely on one of the best and most experienced lead-out men in Graeme Brown. There are definitely faster riders than Jones but if Brown can do things right, the young Jones will be in with a shot.

 

When it comes to lead-out, Dimension Data will be one of the most powerful teams Reinardt Janse Van Rensburg, Mark Renshaw and Tyler Farrar are all fast riders but none of them are among the fastest. However, by working together, they have the speed to dominate the finale. Renshaw has spent the summer in Australia and has often been a protected sprinter Down Under so it would be logical if he will get the nod in this first race as he has already raced at Nationals. He is not a pure sprinter but his experience can bring him far in this race.

 

Last year Steele von Hoff won a stage for UniSA Australia and the ONE sprinter has again been selected for the national team. As an Australian, he has already done a bit of racing even though he has not had the usual good results at Nationals and the Bay Classics. He is surrounded by a young team and that’s definitely not an advantage in this competitive field. However, it was the same situation 12 months ago and back then his form and experience made the difference.

 

We are curious to see how Marko Kump will do in his first race for Lampre-Merida. The Slovenian didn’t have much success at Tinkoff-Saxo but last year he won an awful lot of races for Adria Mobil. Now he is back at the WorldTour level and will be keen to make amends. He is not a pure sprinter and so this race is probably a bit too easy for him but with Manuele Mori, Federico Zurlo and Luka Pibernik at his side he has a solid lead-out.

 

Another new signing is Adam Blythe. The Brit has been signed to support Peter Sagan in the classics and won’t get many sprinting opportunities. However, he will be the Tinkoff sprinter in Australia and he will be keen to grab the opportunity. He has plenty of experience in positioning himself and can count on a solid lead-out man in Oscar Gatto. He is traditionally strong at the start of the year so he should be in with a shot even though he is not the fastest rider in this race.

 

Finally, Juan Jose Lobato deserves a mention. The Spaniard is probably one of the worst sprinters when it comes to positioning himself but he has an impressive speed. He has often been forced to start his sprint from far back which has cost him numerous victories and that could also be costly in this kind of headwind sprint. However, he is usually flying at this time of the year and in this race he will be supported by the experienced Jose Joaquin Rojas with whom he hasn’t raced a lot. There is little doubt that Lobato is one of the fastest riders in the race so if he can get his positioning right for once, he is a potential winner of the race.

 

CyclingQuotes’ winner pick: Matteo Pelucchi

Other winner candidates: Caleb Ewan, Giacomo Nizzolo

Outsiders: Wouter Wippert, Brenton Jones, Mark Renshaw

Jokers: Steele von Hoff, Marko Kump, Adam Blythe, Juan Jose Lobato

 

Betting tips

Matteo Pelucchi to win - 3.25 at Bet365

On paper, Caleb Ewan is the big favorite after his impressive start to the Australian summer season. However, Matteo Pelucchi must be the favourite in this race. The Italian has proved that he is one of the fastest in the world, especially in the easy races, and it is no coincidence that he already has three World Tour victories on his palmares. Tomorrow's short, flat criterium is made for a pure sprinter like him.

 

Pelucchi and Ewan are undoubtedly the two fastest riders in the peloton, but the Italian has a clear advantage. Orica-Green Edge has primarily built the team around Simon Gerrans' GC ambitions, and this means that there won’t be muchlead-out for Ewan. Daryl Impey is certainly among the best lead-out men in the world, but will find it hard against the strong IAM train of Roger Kluge, Leigh Howard, Aleksejs Saramotins and David Tanner.

 

On paper, the Swiss team and Dimension Data have the best trains in the race, and history shows that the team is often crucial in the People's Choice Classic. IAM invests a lot in the sprints in 2016 and has been dedicated to Pelucchi's train. This makes the Italian our favorite.

 

You can place your bet here.

 

Matteo Pelucchi to beat Caleb Ewan - 2.20 at Bet365

Read the analysis above

 

You can place your bet here.

 

Daryl Impey to beat Adam Phelan - 1.66 at Bet365

Daryl Impey is the last man in Caleb Ewan’s train and will likely finish near the front. Adam Phelan plays an important role in Brenton Jones’ train at Drapac but Graeme Brown has the role of the final rider. Traditionally Phelan finishes considerably further back in the bunch sprints.

 

You can place your bet here.

 

Mark Renshaw to beat Juan Jose Lobato - 1.61 at Bet365

This bet is a little uncertain. Dimension Data undoubtedly has one of the best trains, but it is not clear who will be the protected sprinter Tyler Farrer and Reinardt van Rensburg can also get the captaincy role, but traditionally Mark Renshaw has been the main printer for his team at the Tour Down under. It is likely to be the case for Dimension Data in 2016 too.

 

 

If so, Renshaw is likely to Juan Jose Lobato. The Spaniard is undoubtedly the fastest but is among the worst when it comes to positioning. This means that he often ends up outside the top 10 and fails to take advantage of his speed. Often he comes from behind at high speed but in tomorrow’s headwind sprint that will be difficult. Hence, Renshaw should finish ahead of him thanks to a very strong team that can give him a perfect lead-out.

 

You can place your bet here.

 

Brenton Jones to beat Steele Von Hoff - 2.10 at Bet365

Brenton Jones is now the top sprinter at Drapac and with several second places behind Caleb Ewan, he has already had a very successful 2016 season. With Graeme Brown at his side, he has one of the most experienced lead-out men and it is the main reason for his consistency in the sprints.

 

Steele Von Hoff won a stage in the 2015 Tour Down Under but has not been at the same level so far in 2016. Furthermore, he is part of a young UniSA-Australia team that is unlikely to give him much support in the sprints - especially since the riders are not trade teammates. At the same time, it is difficult to argue that von Hoff is faster than the talented Jones who has to be the favourite in this duel.

 

You can place your bet here.

 

Giacomo Nizzolo to beat Wouter Wippert - 2.25 at Bet365

This duel is a close one and can easily go either way. However, it is difficult to argue that Wippert must be a huge favorite. On paper, a criterium like this is better for the Dutchman, but it is his first race with Cannondale. He admits that it will take time to make the train work and it will probably cost a little in the Australian season opener.

 

As opposed to this, Nizzolo can count on his trusted lead-out man Boy van Poppel. Furthermore, he is among the best sprinters when it comes to positioning, making him one of the most consistent sprinters. Unlike last year, he is in good shape and hopes to get a win in Australia. He has a solid chance to beat Wippert.

 

You can place your bet here.