Usually, it requires years for a one-day race to be regarded as a classic but one race has made the jump into the elite of one-day races almost from its very beginning. The Strade Bianche with its iconic white gravel roads has all the ingredients of a unique race and is already regarded as one of the most prestigious one-day races despite this year's only being the 10th edition. With its gravel roads, many hills, and very steep finish, it is one of the rare races to attract cobbled specialists, Ardennes riders, and grand tour stars and all are in with a chance on one of the most exciting courses of the entire cycling calendar.

 

The idea is so obvious that the real surprise is that it took so long time for anyone to turn it into reality. The many historic gravel roads in the Siena area and the rolling nature of the terrain with its many short, steep climbs invite themselves as the scene of a great bike race but it wasn't until 2008 that Giro organizers RCS Sport decided to put on a major race in the area. Inspired by a big event for recreational cyclists, they hosted the inaugural event of Strade Bianche in the autumn of 2007 when Alexandr Kolobnev beat Marcus Ljungqvist to become the first winner of what would soon become a new classic, then known as Monte Piaschi Eroica.

 

RCS did nothing to hide that their real ambition was to turn the race into somewhat of an Italian edition of Paris-Roubaix and this made it tempting to move the race from its original autumn date to the spring. The move was made for the second edition and the organizers could not have wished a better outcome. Major classics stars Alessandro Ballan and Fabian Cancellara battled it out in an exciting battle, with the latter coming away with the win, and a few weeks later the duo were again at the forefront when they fought against Tom Boonen on the Roubaix velodrome.

 

That race may have given the impression that the race was one for the riders that excel on the cobbles but the race is a much more diverse affair and truly unique. Part of the race may take place of gravel roads but the other significant features are the many short, very steep climbs. Many are on gravel roads which makes it harder for the tiny climbers to raise from the saddle but it doesn't change the fact that steepness of the climbs and the total amount of climbing make the race suitable for Ardennes specialists and grand tour contenders too. The race even finishes on the very steep climb to the Piazza del Campo in Siena which just turns the race even more into the hands of the riders that excel whenever the road points upwards.

 

To realize how diverse the race is, one only has to take a look at the winners list. After Cancellara's and Ballan's battle in 2008, it was a stage race rider like Thomas Löfkvist who powered clear of Ardennes specialist Fabian Wegmann, Martin Elmiger and Edvald Boasson Hagen who both thrive on the cobbles, to win the 2010 edition, with the top 10 even containing stage race riders like Andy Schleck and Ryder Hesjedal. One year later it was Ardennes rider Maxim Iglinskiy who held off Löfkvist, Michael Rogers, Filippo Pozzato, and Ryder Hesjedal to form a top 5 that is hard to imagine in any other race. In 2011 - Philippe Gilbert's magical year - the race was of course just one of many to be won by the then Lotto captain as he held off Ballan, Damiano Cunego, Jure Kocjan and Cancellara on the uphill finishing straight while Cancellara took a dominant solo win in 2012. In 2013, Moreno Moser and Peter Sagan made it a memorable 1-2 after a tactical masterpiece from the Cannondale team and in 2014 Michal Kwiatkowski confirmed his status as the rider of the spring by beating Sagan in Siena.

 

It is this kind of versatility that makes the race exciting and open to many possible scenarios. It can end in a sprint from a small group on the uphill finishing straight, suiting the punchy climbers, or a rider like Cancellara may use his raw power on the gravel roads to get clear for a solo win. In Strade Bianche, almost any kind of rider - with sprinters and pure climbers being notable exceptions - come to the fore and riders go up against rivals that they rarely face in their key objectives.

 

The race may be a unique one that has attracted an interest from most of the biggest riders and teams and it may already have taken an important position on the calendar. Compared to the biggest classics, however, it remains a preparation event. No one goes into the season targeting Strade Bianche as a key objective and for some it is mainly a test event for Tirreno-Adriatico and Milan-Sanremo. While everybody would love to win it, nobody would be devastated to lose. For a race to enter the real elite of cycling's one-day races, it needs a long history that Strade Bianche doesn't have.

 

That doesn't take anything away from the excitement of the race and with the addition of the Roma Maxima which took place in an equally stunning scenery with a finish in the centre of Rome, RCS Sport briefly offered a high-level, prestigious doubleheader that attracted the interest from almost the entire field of ProTeams. The Rome race has now been cancelled again but it hasn’t prevented Strade Bianche from again attracting a steller line-up of both grand tour and classics riders.

 

Last year it turned into an elimination race that first saw a 5-rider group emerge. Fabian Cancellara and Sep Vanmarcke were left behind and it was the trio of Zdenek Stybar, Greg Van Avermaet and Alejandro Valverde that decided the race on the climb in Siena. Surprisingly, the Spaniard cracked under the Belgian’s pressure but it was Stybar who came around the Belgian to take a memorable solo win. The Czech skipped the opening weekend to focus on his title defence and will again be up against in-form Van Avermaet and Valverde who have both won races in recent weeks.

 

The course

Despite its short history, organizers RCS Sport have already found a rather fixed format for their race. In the first years, there were several changes to the course but in the last few years, the layout has been largely intact. The amount of gravel roads and difficulty of the sectors have changed a bit but the most important parts of the finale is now well-known by the riders. One feature has been part of the race every year: the beautiful and spectacular finish on the steep climb to the Piazza del Campo in Sienna.

 

After two years with largely identical courses, the organizers have changed things for the 2016 race. The changes all come in the first part of the race and the final third is unchanged but the new gravel sections generally seem to be harder and this could make the race more selective.  At 176.0km, the distance has been shortened by 24km and the start has been moved San Gimignano to Siena. The number of gravel sectors has been reduced from 10 to 9 but the number of kilometres of uneven surface has been increased from 45 to 53. With an unchanged finale, the race will be very similar to what we have seen in the past.

 

There is not much flat terrain in the Siena area which is characterized by rolling hills and steep climbs. Starting from Siena (Stadium/Medicean Fortress area), the first undulating kilometres are on tarmac before reaching the first 2.1km gravel sector at km 11, which is perfectly straight and always slightly uphill. Then we're soon at the first climb of the day, the Passo del Rospatoio (paved, roughly 5km at 5%). The race will then go through Murlo, followed by one of its classic gravel sectors (5.5km, featuring in the course since its first edition) with no significant gradient and leading to Buonconvento. The racing is likely to be very aggressive at this point as team tactics play a key role in a race like this, making it important that the early break has the right composition.

 

A few kilometres later the Montalcino climb, the second of the day (4km at 5%), starts. After Torrenieri the riders will face sectors three (11.9km) and four (8.0km) with only 1km of tarmac in between them. Both are hard, hilly, very punchy and with many bends, climbs and descents. This section is a new one and will probably make the race more selective. However, it is still too early for the key riders to make a move but it will be a stressful section that can be used to make the race hard and create an initial selection.

After the second passage through Buonconvento, the feed station will be positioned in the area of Ponte d’Arbia. Soon the route reaches Monteroni d’Arbia, which marks the beginning of the following gravel sector of San Martino in Grania (9.5km) in the middle of the Crete Senesi. It's a long sector with continuous up and downs in the first part, ending up with a twisting climb before meeting the tarmac again. It replaces an easier section and will again contribute to making the race harder.
 

At this point, however, the battle is about to kick off in earnest and the battle for position will be intense when the riders approach the key section of the day which comes with 54km to go. At 11.5km, the Monte Sante Marie section is the longest of the race and it is the only with a five-star difficulty racing. The section includes several short steep climbs and this is probably the scene of the first major attacks.

 

At the end of the section, a small group of favourites is likely to have formed and now it is time for the different groups to organize themselves and initiate a chase. It depends on the composition and the level of cooperation how much regrouping will take place but from now on the race will be a true elimination race.

 

The 17.8km of paved roads that follow are rather easy but precede the final three gravel sectors that are all short but contain steep climbs which are the perfect launch pads for the final attacks. The first one is just 800m long, starts 24.8km from the finish and is almost all uphill with a double digit gradient ramp before rejoining the tarmac in Vico d’Arbia and going to paved road through Pieve a Bozzone.

 

19.35km from the finish, the riders hit the 2.4km penultimate sector which has a 4-star rating. It is uphill all the way but after a short 10% stretch with a 15% maximum in the beginning, the gradients are rather easy at 3-4%. This is where Cancellara was dropped one year ago. At the end, 3.9km of slightly descending and ascending paved roads follow before it is time for the Le Tolfe section which is where the final selection can be made.

 

The section is just 1.1km long but after a short descent, its second half consists of a brutal climb with a gradient of 11.4% and a maximum of 18%. It has a three-star rating. This is where Fabian Cancellara has often put in his best attacks and the front group has splintered to pieces. Last year Vanmarcke was dropped here.

 

At the end of the section, 12.05km remain and even though they are almost all up or down, there are no steep climbs or difficult descents. Depending on the race situation, this makes it possible for some regrouping to take place but will also open the door for late attacks. At this point, no team is likely to have strength in numbers and this could open the door for a sneaky move in a hectic finale like Moser did it in 2013.

 

The finale is rather technical as the riders go through two hairpin bends on the slight downhill section between the 4km and 2km to go marks. They turn left 1.7km from the finish and then head along slightly ascending, straight roads until they pass the gate and the pave section that lead them onto the steep climb that will bring them to the finish on the beautiful Piazza del Campo.

 

At the end of a 200km race, the 800m climb is a real leg breaker and even though the average gradient is only around 6.5%, it has a very steep 16% section at the bottom. The gradient exceeds 10% until 500m from the finish line. The riders will do a sharp right-hand turn just after the steepest part as they head up the iconic and beautiful road in the historic city.

 

300m from the line they do a sharp left-hand turn and from there it is downhill to the finish. The road is very narrow and bends slightly to the right before the final sharp right-hand turn with 150m to the line. This 7% downhill section is extremely technical and the real sprint will take place before the final corner as there is no way to pass each other on the final short stretch to the finish.

 

Several different scenarios are possible but most often a small group of favourites arrive at the bottom of the final climb and then it is all decided in a final brutal sprint up the slopes and a fierce battle for position for the final corner. The final climb is so hard that one rider usually arrives at the finish on his own but as Cancellara has proved, it is also possible to escape on your own much earlier in the race. One thing is certain: Only a select group of the strongest riders will remain in contention by the time the riders reach the Piazza del Campo in Siena.

  

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

At this time of the year, several races are often hampered by bad weather but for some reason, Strade Bianche has always been spared the rain and cold which can turn the race into a muddy chaos. However, that is set to chance for the 2016 edition which could turn into an epic mud fest like the Giro stage that Cadel Evans won on these roads in the 2010 Giro d’Italia.

 

Already at the start, there is a 75% chance of rain and it will increase to 95% towards the end of the race, meaning that it is almost guaranteed that the riders will spend the entire day in wet conditions. The maximum temperature at the finish will be 12 degrees.

 

To make things even worse, it will be very windy, with a strong wind coming from a southerly direction. This means that it will mainly be a headwind in the first part until the riders get to a crosswind secton for the second and third sectors. Then it’s back into a headwind and then a tailwind for the crucial fifth and sixth sectors. There will be a crosswind or a tailwind in the final part until the riders will turn into a headwind in Siena. On the final climb, it will be a combination of cross- and headwind.

 

The favourites

To pick favourites for Strade Bianche is a rather unique experience as it involves considering names that usually don't feature at the top of the list in the same race. On one hand, the many steep climbs and the very tough finish appeal to the climbers. On the other hand, the gravel roads make it difficult for the lighter riders to benefit maximally from their climbing prowess while the heavier riders can capitalize on their ability to power up a steep slope while sitting in the saddle.

 

Of course the gravel roads mean that luck plays a certain role in the race – just recall how Peter Sagan lost all chances due to an untimely puncture when he debuted in the race in 2012. Barring accident, however, the strongest riders will always come to the fore in this kind of race and it will be a gradual elimination until only the best are left.

 

In this kind of race, team tactics usually play a big role and it often takes some time for the early break to be formed. From there, it will be a gradual elimination race as the race gradually takes its toll and riders are sent out the back door. The key selection will be made on the Monte Sante Marie sector and at the end of it, only a few teams will have any domestique resources left. This opens the door for an aggressive race which is hard to control and a strong team to cover the attacks can be of utmost importance. As the race has often been hard but not extremely selective, team tactics will also come into play as Moser's 2013 win illustrated in the most obvious way.

 

Many compare the race to the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix but the amount of climbing is a lot bigger than it is in those two races. Furthermore, the tough finish in Siena means that the heavier guys have to arrive on their own as they will have no chance in an uphill sprint against the likes of Alejandro Valverde and Peter Sagan. The heavy cobbled classics specialists may have shown great condition but this race is different from a Belgian classic and is better suited to Ardennes specialists than riders for the Northern classics.

 

This year the race will be harder than ever before. The rain and wind will probably turn it into an epic mud fest that will be remembered for years just as it was the case for the Giro stage won by Cadel Evans on the gravel roads in 2010. A strong crosswind could create a huge selection already on the second and third sector while the tailwind on the key sectors in the finale – interspersed with more crosswind sections – will make it extremely fast in the end and much easier for a solo rider to make it to the finish. This year’s race will probably be more of an elimination race than ever before and for the first time since Cancellara’s last win, the winner may be determined even before we get to the final climb in Siena.

 

The rainy conditions will change the script. As said, this is a race that suits both climbers and classics riders but wet roads and cold conditions should favour the heavier guys. It will be harder for the climber to raise from the saddle while the classics riders will benefit from their power. Furthermore, it will be easier for them to stay warm in these conditions.

 

Last year Zdenek Stybar made what many regard as a belated debut in the race and he proved that he is perfectly suited to the Tuscan dirt roads by claiming a memorable victory. This year he returns to the race with the ambition to defend his title and he is hugely motivated. He even skipped the opening weekend to prepare fully for this race which is his first big goal of the year.

 

It is no wonder that Stybar won last year’s race. He is a great climber in moderately hilly terrain and very punchy on short, steep climbs. His bike-handling skills are excellent and his cyclo-cross background is clearly an advantage in a race like this. Furthermore, he is great at positioning himself which is crucial in a race that is likely to be marred by crosswinds.

 

Stybar excels in tough conditions and he should benefit from the rainy, windy weather. He hasn’t achieved any top results yet but he climbed excellently in the Volta ao Algarve where he put in a strong solo attack in the finale of the mountaintop finish on the Alto da Foia. Since then he has prepared meticulously for this race and there is no reason to suggest that he is not up for the challenge.

 

To make things even better, Stybar is supported by what is probably the strongest team in this race. Tony Martin, Petr Vakoc, Matteo Trentin, Gianluca Brambilla and Bob Jungels all have the potential to be there after the Monte Sante Marie and that will put them in a perfect position to play a tactical game and bring back attacks. We doubt that anyone will be able to drop Stybar in an elimination race like this and he is one of the best in an uphill sprint in Siena. We expect it to be another win for the Czech star on the Tuscan gravel roads.

 

Mr. Consistent, Greg Van Avermaet, has of course been in the top 10 in his last four participations in this race, culminating with last year’s second place, but the win has always eluded him. This year he is obviously stronger than ever before after his victory in Het Nieuwsblad and he probably has the best chance ever to win the race.

 

Generally, Van Avermaet prefers the races to be as tough as possible and so he should benefit from what will be an epic day in the saddle. His form is excellent as he proved in Belgium where Luke Rowe stated that it had been obvious all day that Van Avermaet was the strongest. Compared to many cobbled specialists, he is a much better climber who can even mix it up with the best in tough grand tour stages and in the Ardennes and so this heavy course suits him down to the ground. Most importantly, Van Avermaet now has confidence that he can win an uphill sprint. He was already close last year and after his wins in the Tour and Het Nieuwsblad, he believes a lot more in himself in these finishes. He won’t be easy to beat in Siena and he is likely to be Stybar’s biggest rival.

 

Strade Bianche has Peter Sagan written all over it but for some reason the Slovakian still hasn’t won the race. In 2012, he was set back by a puncture while team tactics allowed Moreno Moser to take the win in 2013 when Sagan was clearly the strongest rider in the race. In 2014 he came up short against an exceptional Michal Kwiatkowski but last year he was off the pace in what was generally a poor spring campaign.

 

Since last May, Sagan has been back at his best level and he proved that he is ready for the classics with a solid performance in the opening weekend. He was not the strongest in Het Nieuwsblad but still finished second and in Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne he accelerated hard on the Kwaremont. A talented rider like Sagan doesn’t need much racing to improve his condition and he is likely to be a lot stronger on Saturday.

 

On paper, the course suits him really well. His powerful riding style makes him strong on the gravel roads, he handles the crosswinds perfectly and in the past he has always been extremely strong on this kind of short, steep climbs. The technical finale in Siena suits him down to the ground and only the most explosive climbers will be able to drop him on that ascent.

 

It will be interesting to see how he handles the tough conditions. On one hand, they should favour a heavy rider like him. On the other hand, he has often blown up when the races have been very hard and epic. The shorter distance should suit him but it remains to be seen whether he can keep his strength throughout the entire race. Furthermore, he was not at Van Avermaet’s level in Belgium so he needs to show some improvement. As said, that is likely to be the case and it could finally be the time for him to win this race.

 

Fabian Cancellara is the only rider to have won this race twice and he will again be one of the obvious favourites. No one can deny that the Swiss is no longer in the superior league he once was but his performances in his first races this year has proved that he is still one of the very best in races like this one.

 

Cancellara is clearly extremely motivated for his final year in the peloton and this is a race that is dear to his heart. His good form was on show in Mallorca where he won a race that should be too hard for him but he delivered a disappointing performance in Oman where he came up short on Hatta Dam. However, reports from the Trek camp are that he is flying and he is fully ready for this race.

 

Cancellara has proved that he can win this race but the huge amount on climbing means that it is better suited to some of the lighter guys. On the other hand, he is the rider that will benefit most from the tough conditions as it will make it an elimination race. He excels in such a battle and it will make it much easier for him to make his solo move. We doubt that he will be able to beat the likes of Stybar, Van Avermaet and Sagan on the climb in Siena but in these conditions a strong Cancellara has the strength to simply drop everyone much earlier in the race.

 

Michal Kwiatkowski is another former winner of this race and he returns for the first time since he claimed victory in 2014. However, he goes into the race on the back of a disappointing 2015 season where he was far from his 2015 level. Furthermore, he was ill in February and missed his key preparation race, Volta ao Algarve.

 

That obviously creates a lot of uncertainty around the former world champion. On the other hand, his solid performances in Algarve indicate that he may be on his way back to his former heights. This race suits him really well as he is both a great bike handler and very punchy on short, steep climbs. If he is at his 2014 level, he will be very hard to beat on the climb in Siena.

 

Alejandro Valverde has done the race twice and was third on both occasions. Last year he was in prime position to win but blew up on the final climb. In 2014, it seemed that only a lack of attention prevented him from joining Peter Sagan and Michal Kwiatkowski in the race-winning move.

 

This year Valverde will be back and he definitely wants to add another prestigious classic to his impressive palmares. He has proved that he can handle the gravel roads and the short, steep climbs suit him down to the ground. Furthermore, he is virtually unbeatable in this kind of finale where he can both make use of his puncheur skills and his great technical abilities.

 

Valverde has had a slow start to the year as he aims to hit his peak condition a little later. However, the hugely talented Spaniard barely needs any racing to reach his best and his outstanding win in Andalusia proves that he is already at a very high level. This obviously turns him into one of the favourites for this race.

 

However, the weather conditions will be a challenge for Valverde who prefers the heat. A light climber like him will have a harder time on the wet gravel roads and it will be harder for him to stay warm. If it had been a dry race, Valverde would maybe have been the favourite but now he is more of a very strong outsider.

 

Tiesj Benoot will make his debut in this race and it seems to be only a question of time before the hugely talented Belgian will win this race. He showed his excellent condition in the opening weekend where he was probably the second strongest rider in Het Nieuwsblad. Compared to many cobbled specialists, he is a much better climber and he even mixed it up with the best in a mountain stage at last year’s Dauphiné. He was close to victory in last year’s GP Montreal which is a very heavy race for Ardennes specialists.

 

Benoot’s big advantage is the weather. He loves the rain and cold and he will excel on a day like this. He is a great climber and fast in a sprint but he may miss the punch to beat some of the more explosive guys in Siena. It may be a bit too early for him to win in such a classy field but he could very well be on the podium again.

 

Vincenzo Nibali is not perfectly suited to this race which is a bit too explosive for him but no one can deny that his form is excellent. Furthermore, he loves a wet, windy day like this and there is little doubt that he will be up there in the finale. Astana have a strong team with cards to play and if Jakob Fuglsang and Diego Rosa can both be there in the finale, they can use their strength in numbers. Nibali won’t be the explosive guys in Siena but he knows how to make a well-timed attack in the finale.

 

We are very curious to see how Jasper Stuyven will handle this race. The Belgian has always been a huge classics talent but it was his ride in Kuurne that revealed the full extent of his potential. He claimed to have had the legs to follow the best in Het Nieuwsblad too and it is hard not to believe him. However, we think that the amount of climbing will be a bit too much for him here and his main goal will be to support Cancellara. However, for a rider with an unlimited potential, he may be able to create another surprise.

 

Jakob Fuglsang showed his good form in Oman where he was third despite working for Nibali. He is a former mountain bike and so should find this race to his liking. He is a bit heavier than many of the smaller climbers and this should be an advantage in a race like this. He has proved that he excels in tough conditions – just recall how well he did in the cobbled Tour stage in 2014. He won’t win an uphill sprint in Siena but by teaming up with Nibali and Rosa, he has the chance to use team tactics to make the right move.

 

Jan Bakelants has been in great form all year and he goes into this race as a strong outsider. The course suits him well as he excels in hilly terrain and he has a decent kick on such climbs. Furthermore, he is a master of wet, cold conditions as he proved in the Giro dell’Emilia and Gran Piemonte last year. There are faster riders like him but as he is more of an outsider, he won’t be too heavily marked and he knows how to time an attack perfectly.

 

Petr Vakoc goes into the race in excellent condition. He won both the hilly one-day races in France this weekend and has confirmed the potential he revealed a last year’s Tour of Britain. On paper, this is another race that suits him really well as he is very punchy on these climbs and is strong in an uphill sprint. His main goal will be to support Stybar but if team tactics come into play, the in-form Czech may be given his chance.

 

Finally, we are curious to see how Tony Martin will do in this race. We wouldn’t have given him much of a chance in dry conditions but if it turns into an elimination race, he will be a contender. If Etixx-QuickStep have strength in numbers in the finale, they may as well send their diesel engine off the front and who’s going to bring him back at the end of a hard race where everybody is on their limit?

 

***** Zdenek Stybar

**** Greg Van Avermaet, Peter Sagan

*** Fabian Cancellara, Michal Kwiatkowski, Alejandro Valverde, Tiesj Benoot

** Vincenzo Nibali, Jasper Stuyven, Jakob Fuglsang, Jan Bakelants, Petr Vakoc, Tony Martin

* Peter Kennaugh, Diego Ulissi, Daniel Oss, Diego Rosa, Bob Jungels, Matteo Trentin, Sonny Colbrelli, Rafael Valls, Andrey Amador, Damiano Cunego, Robert Gesink, Primoz Roglic, Oscar Gatto