The Pyrenees didn’t do much to show who’s the strongest in the race so now we have to wait until the Mont Ventoux stage on Thursday for the next chance to gauge the form of the contenders. Meanwhile, the sprinters hope to get two chances to show their fast legs before they return to survival mode but it won’t be easy for them to survive in Tuesday’s tough stage to Revel where Alexandre Vinokourov has proved that it is possible to deny the sprinters with a late attack.

 

The course

The first day after a rest day can be dangerous and so many riders will be pleased to know that there will be no big mountain stage when the riders get back in the saddle after their first day off. Stage 10 should give the GC riders a chance to ease back into competition but that’s definitely not the case for the sprinters. They don’t have many opportunities left and so they will go all in to get a bunch sprint in the well-known, tricky finale in Revel. However, a big mountain at the start of the race and the final challenge of Cote de Saint-Ferreol will do nothing to make it easy for the fast finishers.

 

The 197km course is the start of the traditional journey between the Pyrenees and the Alps and will see the riders travel from the Andorran city of Escaldes Engordany in the middle of the mountains to Revel. Throughout most of the stage, they will be riding in a northerly direction and they will get things off to a brutal start. Right from the beginning, they will go up the category 1 Port d’Envalira (22.6km, 5.5%) whose top sits at 2408m and so is the highest point of this year’s race. The lower slopes are pretty easy but the final 5.6km are much tougher with gradients of 6-8%.

 

After the climb, the riders will descend out of the Pyrenean heartland and return to the completely flat terrain in the area north of the mountains. There won’t be any challenges and the highlight will be the intermediate sprint which comes at the 122.5km mark. It’s very straightforward and comes on a long, straight, flat road. From there, the riders will continue along flat roads until they are very close to the outskirts of Revel.

 

Instead of heading straight to the finish, the riders will do as they always do here. A small loop on the southeastern outskirts of the city will see them go up the category 3 Cote de Saint-Ferreol (1.8km, 6.6%) just 7km from the finish. From there, they will descend to the final 3km which are flat. The descent is a bit technical but the final 3200m are almost completely straight and flat, with just two turns in very quick succession 600m from the line. The finishing straight is 6m wide.

 

In 2010, Alexandre Vinokourov attacked on the final climb and reached the finish with a 13-second advantage before Mark Cavendish beat Alessandro Petacchi in the sprint for second. In 2005, Paolo Savoldelli emerged as the strongest from a breakaway while Jan Ullrich famously went on the attack on the final climb. He failed to drop Lance Armstrong but Floyd Landis lost 20 seconds on a day when the early breakaway arrived with an advantage of more than 22 minutes. In 2000, Erik Dekker was the strongest from an early breakaway.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The hailstorm made the conditions for the finale of stage 9 epic and there is more bad weather in store for the riders. Tuesday is forecasted to be a rainy day with a 50-75% chance of rain throughout the entire stage. It won’t be a hot as it has been recently as the maximum temperature at the finish will be 24 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a northerly direction. This means that there will be a cross-headwind and then a cross-tailwind on the first climb but from there it will be a headwind or a cross-headwind almost all day. In the finale the riders will turn into a crosswind and then it will be a tailwind on the climb. After the descent, it will be a headwind for the final 3km.

 

The favourites

The final stage in the Pyrenees proved that four riders seem to be a bit stronger than the rest. In our preview, we pointed to Chris Froome, Nairo Quintana, Richie Porte and Daniel Martin as the four best climbers in the race and they lived up to expectations.  Adam Yates rode a more conservative race and managed to rejoin the leaders in the finale, fully confirming the huge potential he has shown since he turned professional five years ago. The rest were a step below the best but things can still change in the final two weeks as only two of the five best riders have a proven track record in grand tours with more than one top 10 finish.

 

Unlike in the past, Chris Froome was unable to make a difference. He attacked twice and his first attack was clearly very strong. However, Nairo Quintana stayed glued to his wheel and didn’t give him an inch. The strong headwind made it harder for Froome to make a difference but at the moment, it is very hard to say who’s the best climber of the pair. Froome can only hope that his plan to be fresher for the final week will allow him to maintain his level as he exits the Pyrenees with a much smaller advantage that he has had in the past.

 

Many have been a bit surprised that Quintana never attacked in stage 9. However, as we said in our preview, that was always unlikely to happen. Quintana’s big goal for the first week was to follow Froome’s attacks and limit his losses. He has done that excellently well and only a small mistake in stage 8 cost him some time. The situation is almost perfect for the Colombian who has always been aiming to make the difference in the Alps. Until now, it has been a near-perfect Tour for Quintana.

 

Richie Porte again proved that he is the third best climber in the race. He only lost two seconds in the finale and was briefly dropped when Froome made his biggest attack. However, he was by far the most active rider and rode a lot on the front in the strong headwind. If he had been a bit more conservative, he would probably have stayed with Froome and Quintana all the time. The Australian looks like a very strong contender so if he can for once avoid illness and a bad day, he is in with a real shot. However, he must still lament the puncture in stage 2 which hampers him significantly.

 

For Daniel Martin, it was another confirmation of his improved climbing. Known as a puncheur, he has moved to Andorra to improve his skills on the long climbs and that has really paid off. He was not far behind the best and like Porte he rode a very aggressive race. Unfortunately, his poor TT skills will be a big problem and like Porte he has a fragile health. However, unlike the Australian, he has actually proved that he can be consistent throughout three weeks so if he can avoid illness and his many crashes, he should be up there until the end.

 

Yates is a bit more of a question mark. The Brit claims that he is still not fully committed to GC but of course he will be going all out for the overall as long as he is up there. No one has ever doubted his skills in the mountains but it remains to be seen whether he can stay consistent for three weeks. Furthermore, his poor TT skills are a big problem.

 

The big loser was of course Fabio Aru but that can’t be regarded as a major surprise. After all, the Italian has been riding poorly all year and there have been no signs that he is about to turn things around. He has an amazing consistency in the grand tours and has never failed to time his form but the 2016 season has been a real disaster for the talented climber. As opposed to this, things are looking good for diesel engines Bauke Mollema and Louis Meintjes who should only get better from this point.

 

The next big battle will come on Mont Ventoux but differences could already be made in Wednesday’s stage to Montpellier where a very strong Mistral wind is forecasted. They first have to get through Tuesday’s 10th stage which is unlikely to make any difference in the GC battle. However, it will still take its toll as it is set to be a very fast affair.

 

The big climb in the beginning and the climb in the finale mean that it will be very hard to control. Many riders know that a breakaway has a chance so they will be very keen to go on the attack. The tough start means that they have the terrain to do so and this kind of start means that it will be a very strong break that goes clear. However, the number of potential escapees is pretty limited as only the very good climbers can get away in this part of the stage.

 

Sky want an easy day so they will do little to control the pace. The sprint teams can do nothing at this point as they will have to wait until after the climb to start a chase. Hence, we will probably get a very big and very strong breakaway which will try to maximize their advantage on the climb.

 

The peloton is likely to have exploded on the climb and then it is time for a regrouping to take place. The sprint teams have to wait for their sprinters to make it back before they can start a chase so the gap will probably become rather big before they get organized. However, riders like Michael Matthews, Bryan Coquard and Peter Sagan should be able to do much better than the pure sprinters and they may want to keep the likes of Kittel, Greipel and Cavendish at bay. Hence, they may hit the front pretty early and if that’s the case, we should get a very fast stage, with a breakaway being chased by the peloton and a gruppetto desperately trying to make it back.

 

We doubt that the breakaway will have much of a chance. This is one of the best chances for Sagan, Coquard, Matthews and Kristoff so their teams can’t allow themselves to let it slip away. Tinkoff no longer have the GC as a big goal so Sagan should get the needed support and Direct Energie, Orica-BikeExchange and Katusha should all go all out for a bunch sprint too. With a long day in a headwind, it won’t be easy to stay away.

 

There are no guarantees that the sprinters will make it back and the biggest obstacle for the sprinters will probably be the first climb. The final climb is not that difficult and when it was last used in 2010, almost all the sprinters, including Cavendish, made it two the finish with the peloton. However, Tinkoff, Direct Energie and Orica-BikeExchange will probably try to make it as hard as possible for the pure sprinters. At the same time, there will definitely be attacks like we saw in 2010 when Vinokourov denied the sprinters. Unfortunately, it will be a headwind in the final part and unless a solo rider gets clear, the tactical battle will always favour the peloton. Hence, we will put our money on a bunch sprint but it remains to be seen how many riders will be there in the end, especially if a long chase has made it a hard day. A late attack is the second option while a long-distance break has an outside chance.

 

Bryan Coquard was agonizingly close to victory in stage 4 and he is desperately searching for his first Tour stage win. Tomorrow’s stage is probably his best chance. The Frenchman is a great climber and he has been dropped pretty late in the mountain stage. He is clearly still very fresh and he should be one of the best sprinters on the big mountain in the beginning. The final climb will be no problem and he will have a dedicated team to support him, make the race hard and try to keep the sprinters at bay.

 

A flat sprint is not ideal for Coquard but he should be a lot fresher than the likes of Kittel, Greipel and Cavendish even if they have survived. On paper, he is faster than Sagan and he is very close to Kristoff. His big problem has been the positioning but a smaller and more tired field should make it easier for him to get to the front. If it comes down to a reduced sprint, it will be a close battle between Sagan, Kristoff and Coquard but we will put our money on the Frenchman. Even if the big sprinters have survived, he will have a big chance as he should be a lot fresher than the fastest guys.

 

A few years ago Marcel Kittel would not have had a chance in a stage like this. However, we have been very impressed by his climbing. He has been dropped later than riders like Greipel and Cavendish and yesterday he was even riding in the wind to keep Dan Martin protected on the Puerto del Canto. The German simply seems to be in the form of his life and everybody knows that he is the fastest rider in the world.

 

Kittel has been the fastest in every sprint so far but poor lead-outs have meant that he has been forced to start too early. This time the sprint will probably be less hectic as the field will be smaller and it should be easier for Kittel to start his sprint from a good position. Furthermore, an in-form Maximilano Richeze should easily survive the climb and be there for the lead-out. Everything will depend on whether he can survive the two climbs. The biggest challenge will be to make it back after the big climb. If he is there in the end, he will be the obvious favourite.

 

Alexander Kristoff has not had an ideal start but he seems to be getting better and better. He has been looking forward to some of the harder stages as he is the best in the world when it comes to a sprint after a race of attrition. This stage should suit him very well as it will be fast and hard. He climbs better than the likes of Cavendish, Greipel and Kittel but the first climb could still be a big challenge for him. If he can make it back, he should survive the final climb and the power sprint is ideal for him. He is faster than Sagan and he and Coquard are almost equally fast. The big problem is that it is doubtful whether his lead-out riders Guarnieri and Haller will survive. This could be the day when Kristoff turns his race around.

 

Peter Sagan has his eyes on a stage that suits him really well and Tinkoff will do their utmost to make the race hard. However, he needs to get rid of the likes of Kittel, Greipel and Cavendish as he has no chance in a direct battle with the fastest riders. At the same time, Coquard and Kristoff are usually faster than him so it won’t be easy for him to win the stage. On the other hand, he can definitely beat those two riders and he is a master in positioning and timing his sprint. Sagan definitely has a chance in a reduced bunch sprint.

 

Usually, we would have made André Greipel one of the big favourites for this stage. The German climbs better than Cavendish and Kittel and he loves a sprint after a hard race. However, the race has been far from ideal for him and he is getting increasingly frustrated. That’s dangerous for a sprint as it may prompt them to make poor decisions in the sprints. The Lotto train has not worked ideally either and he won’t have the entire train at his disposal here. Still Jurgen Roelandts and Jens Debusschere should be there in this hard finale and if they can put Greipel into a good position, everyone knows that he is very fast.

 

Of the three top sprinters, Mark Cavendish has it most difficult. The Brit has had a great race so far but he suffered massively in the Pyrenees. His track training hasn’t done him much good when it comes to surviving the big climbs and it will be hard for him to make it to the finish with the best. On the other hand, he has survived the Cote de Saint-Ferreol in the past so it is definitely not impossible. As the race has shown, he is fast enough to beat everybody in a sprint even without a lead-out train.

 

Michael Matthews will be going all out for victory in this stage which is one of his two best chances. Orica-BikeExchange have to make the race as hard as possible and the Matthews can rely on Albasini, Gerrans and Impey for the lead-out. However, it’s a flat power sprint and Matthews hasn’t been sprinting well until now. We doubt that he is fast enough to beat the likes of Sagan and Coquard.

 

Edward Theuns has proved that he has the speed to match the best and this is a good stage for him. As a classics specialist, he climbs better than most of the sprinters and he is great when it comes to positioning. Furthermore, his lead-out riders Cancellara and Stuyven should survive the climb too so he will have a much better chance than in a big bunch sprint.

 

Christope Laporte and Sondre Holst Enger should also find the stage to their liking. They climb better than the pure sprinters so they should both be there in the finale. Unfortunately, they are probably not fast enough to win the stage.

 

One of the big question marks is Dylan Groenewegen. The Dutchman is making his grand tour debut so he takes it day by day. The first climb will be a big challenge but he doesn’t seem to be too fatigued yet. He has been climbing well this year so the final climb will be manageable. He is one of the fastest riders so if he can survive, he can win the stage.

 

Maximilano Richeze and Edvald Boasson Hagen also deserve a mention. They should easily survive the climbs and will take over the leadership if Kittel and/or Cavendish are dropped. However, they are probably not fast enough to win.

 

As said, a late attack has a chance and there is an outside chance for a long-distance breakaway. In that case keep an eye on riders like Greg Van Avermaet, Boasson Hagen, Tom Dumoulin, Arthur Vichot, Jan Bakelants, Simon Gerrans, Alexey Lutsenko, Alexis Vuillermoz and Ramunas Navardauskas

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Bryan Coquard

Other winner candidates: Marcel Kittel, Alexander Kristoff

Outsiders: Peter Sagan, André Greipel, Mark Cavendish, Michael Matthews, Edward Theuns

Sprint jokers: Dylan Groenewegen, Sondre Holst Enger, Christophe Laporte, Maximilano Richeze,

Jokers for late attacks or a long-distance breakaways: Greg Van Avermaet, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Tom Dumoulin, Arthur Vichot, Jan Bakelants, Simon Gerrans, Alexey Lutsenko, Alexis Vuillermoz, Ramunas Navardauskas