A Break Royale denied the sprinters the chance to go for the win in Revel and they are running out of opportunities in a race that gets increasingly mountainous in the final part. Hence, they will be very eager to make the most of the flat stage to Montpellier but if they expect it to be easy, they will be surprised: the Mistral wind poses a big threat and will make it a very nervous day in the saddle for both sprinters and GC riders.

 

The course

The long journey between the Pyrenees and the Alps in the second week of the race always mean that the sprinters have at least one opportunity in between the major climbs. While the stage to Revel was a bit too hard for some of them, they will all be keen to flex their muscles in the traditional stage to Montpellier that very often features on the course in between the major mountains. However, the flat terrain doesn’t mean that it will be an easy day for the GC riders as the area is famously known for its windy conditions and there will be lots of teams on the outlook for a chance to split the field to pieces.

 

At 162.5km, the stage between Carcassonne and Montpellier is relatively short. Bringing the riders in a northeasterly direction all day, it is a typical transitional stage. This part of France is mainly flat so there won’t be many challenges when it comes to the terrain. The category 4 climbs of Cote de Minerve (3.4km, 5.4%) and Cote de Vilespassans (2.3km, 5.4%) at the 38km and 57km marks respectively, will be the only chance to test the climbing legs on a day that offers very few metres of climbing.

 

While they continue along flat roads, the riders will contest the intermediate sprint at the 113.5km mark. It won’t offer many challenges either as it is flat and straight. From there, they will follow an almost direct route to Montpellier where a flat finale awaits them. There won’t be many technical undulations as the riders will take the final turn with 2200m to go. Then the 6m wide road only bends slightly to the left and the final 500m are completely straight. There is a very small 500m climb of around 2-3% just after the flamme rouge but the final 500m are flat.

 

Montpellier is a regular feature on the Tour de France course. It last hosted a stage in 2013 when André Greipel took his only win at that edition. Two years earlier Mark Cavendish was the fastest while Astana won a memorable, technical team time trial in 2009. In 2007, Astana split the field in crosswinds before Robert Hunter became the first African to win a stage in a reduced bunch sprint. In 2005, Robbie McEwen emerged as the fastest in another bunch kick.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Whenever the Tour de France arrives in Montpellier, everybody is studying the weather forecast with extra care. The Mistral wind is a huge danger in this area and it seems that there will be no gifts for riders hoping for an easy day in the saddle.

 

First of all the heat will return on a day of a beautiful sunshine and a maximum temperature of 27 degrees. However, the biggest obstacle will be the very strong northwesterly wind. This means that the riders will have a cross-tailwind all day.  In the finale, there will be a cross-tailwind until the rider turn into a tailwind with a little more than three kilometres to go.

 

The favourites

As we said yesterday, we were always going to get a very strong break in a stage with such a tough start but we would never have expected that kind of Break Royale. Almost all the best classics riders made it into the group – it was probably only Julian Alaphilippe and Simon Gerrans who failed to be there – and as soon as they went away, it was clear that they were going to stay away.

 

The key sprint teams were all there except Katusha and Etixx-QuickStep and as the latter knew that the finale could be too hard for Kittel, they opted to save energy for tomorrow. The big surprise was that Direct Energie waited so long before they started to chase. Coquard and Kristoff made it back to the peloton when the gap was still only three minutes but only Katusha started to chase. If Direct Energie had gone all in at that point, IAM, Katusha and Direct Energie may have had a chance to bring it back. Now it ended as a missed opportunity for Kristoff and Coquard who are running out of options.

 

The Orica-BikeExchange tactic caught us a little by surprise and in fact they were even surprised too. However, the many attacks in the beginning were uncontrollable and so Matthews went on the attack himself. That was a hugely impressive performance. The Australian has always been a good climber but to be up there on a 24km climb is at another level. However, we already noticed that he was climbing excellently before the rest day and it was always evident that his climbing form is great. His sprinting has been poor but today he could come out on top at the end of a tough day.

 

At the same time, you have to take your hat off to Peter Sagan. While riders like Wilco Kelderman and Pierre Rolland were getting dropped from the peloton, he was the most aggressive rider on the Port d’Envalira. The Slovakian hasn’t been climb this well since he famously won a mountain stage at the 2013 Tour de Suisse. Still he had the energy to force the decisive split in the group, cover all the attacks, lead the group for most of the final 7km and do the fastest sprint. If the finish line had come just a little later, he would probably have taken the win.

 

The big sprinters Kittel, Greipel and Cavendish had a very tough start but in the final part they were able to save energy for tomorrow’s big stage to Montpellier. It has been a big goal for them since Cavendish won the last sprint battle in Montauban and it could be one of their final chances. Saturday’s stage is another option and Bern could is an outside chance but otherwise they have to wait until the final day before they will get their next chance.

 

However, if they are expecting a straightforward sprint stage, they will be surprised. Montpellier is famously known for the Mistral wind. In 2005, Astana blew the race to pieces here and in 2013, the stage was so nervous that there wasn’t even a breakaway for more than 100km. With a strong cross-tailwind all day, they conditions are right to create a huge drama on the flat roads to Montpellier.

 

This sets the scene for a very nervous stage. Everybody knows that it’s a complete waste of energy to go on the attack so we may get a scenario like we had in the first week where a small group of one or two riders escape from the gun. However, they are unlikely to get very far. The peloton will probably be so nervous that the sprint teams won’t even have to chase. Everybody wants to be in front so the pace will be very fast. With a strong cross-tailwind, this could very well be one of the fastest stages in the Tour history.

 

We expect the break to be brought back early and then it will be nervous all day. The big question is whether we will have echelons. We will be surprised if not one tries to split the field – look out for teams like LottoNL-Jumbo, Etixx-QuickStep, Trek, Tinkoff, Lotto Soudal and maybe even Sky to try such a move – but it is hard to say whether we will have real drama. At the Tour de France, the attention is so high that it really takes a strong wind to split the field. If none of the key riders are left behind in the echelons that will inevitably be formed at some point, things will come back together and we will have a full bunch sprint. However, the conditions are definitely right to split the field and it could be a very dangerous day for GC riders like Nairo Quintana, Adam Yates, Joaquim Rodriguez and Louis Meintjes who don’t have the best teams or don’t excel in these conditions.

 

In any case, we will have some kind of sprint finish but it remains to be seen whether it will be a big field or a smaller group. The sprint is technically non-complicated and with a strong tailwind, it will be very fast. It’s a great place for the big power sprinters who won’t have any problems in the small uphill part in the final kilometre. However, they need to be strong and have a strong team to be up there if echelons are formed.

 

A power sprint and a strong team for the crosswind – that automatically points to Marcel Kittel as the favourite. The German is definitely the fastest rider in this kind of sprint where it is all about pure speed. In fact, we have little doubt that he will win the sprint if he can finally get into a good position and doesn’t have to go from too far out as he has had to in the first few sprints.

 

Kittel is usually not as strong as André Greipel whose classics palmares shows that he can do well in tough races. However, Kittel seems to be in the form of his life. He has been dropped much later than usual on the climbs and he was even protecting Dan Martin from the wind on the Puerto del Cantu last Sunday. That speaks volumes about his freshness and that’s very important at this point in a grand tour. Furthermore, Etixx-QuickStep are among the best in the echelons and even though they don’t have their biggest engines in this race, they should be able to keep Kittel up there if things split.

 

In fact, they may even take the initiative. Kittel has had a hard time in the fight for position in the big bunch sprints so it would be to his advantage if the peloton is a bit smaller. Even if it is a full bunch sprint, he will be the favourite in this kind of power sprint, especially as Max Richeze and Fabio Sabatini have learned how to be a bit more patient in the sprints. That makes Kittel our stage winner pick.

 

It has been a frustrating race for André Greipel. The Lotto Soudal train has been the best but they have never managed to put things together in the very hectic sprints. Hence, he will be very pleased with the windy conditions. Lotto Soudal are extremely strong in the crosswinds and Greipel is stronger than both Kittel and Cavendish in this kind of race.

 

Furthermore, he usually maintains his strength late in a grand tour and he still seems to be pretty fresh. In stage 3 he proved that the speed is there and both he and Lotto Soudal are adamant that his form is good. On paper, he still has the best train and the power sprint suits him really well. This could be the day when things finally come together for Greipel.

 

Mark Cavendish is on a roll and seems to be unstoppable. He is not the fastest but he has been the smartest in the first sprints. He knows which wheel to pick, reads the sprint excellently and then has the speed to beat Kittel if the German is not in ideal conditions. That will be his approach in tomorrow’s sprint too and if Kittel make a small mistake, Cavendish will be ready to strike.

 

However, things have become more complicated for Cavendish. First of all he is without Mark Renshaw who has left the race and that’s a huge disadvantage in the fight for position. Secondly, he has suffered a lot more than Kittel and Greipel in the mountains and he should be a lot more fatigued. Furthermore, Dimension Data don’t have the best teams for these conditions and Cavendish’s track training may not be ideal for a long, hard race. He doesn’t seem to have the endurance of Kittel and Greipel at the moment and this could be costly at this point in a grand tour. It will be harder for him to win a stage than it was earlier in the race but if he is there in the finale, his chances are great.

 

Usually such a flat stage would be difficult for Alexander Kristoff who doesn’t have the speed to compete with the fastest. However, the windy conditions are great news for the big Norwegian. It will make the race much harder and he is usually very hard to beat in a sprint at the end of a tough race of attrition. Furthermore, he is a classics specialist so he should be in the first echelon if the peloton splits. He has not had much success yet but he has actually been sprinting pretty well and his lead-out riders Jacopo Guarnieri and Marco Haller have been good in the last two sprint stages. Kristoff won’t win a big bunch sprint but if echelons are formed, the Norwegian has a chance to come out on top.

 

The same can be said about Peter Sagan. In a big bunch sprint, the world champion has no chance. However, one thing is guaranteed: if there are echelons, he will be in the first group. We can’t remember the Slovakian ever missing out in windy conditions – even when he was riding extremely poorly in the 2014 Vuelta where he was at an all-time low. Of course Kittel, Greipel, Cavendish and Kristoff are usually faster but if he can get rid of them in the crosswind, he can win the stage. Furthermore, a sprint after a hard race is different, especially at this point in a grand tour, so even if they have made the selection, he has a chance to make a surprise.

 

Dylan Groenewegen is making his grand tour debut so he is a bit in untested territory. However, he still seems to be very fresh and he will have an eye on a stage that suits him very well. LottoNL-Jumbo have some big strong engines for the crosswinds, most notably Sep Vanmarcke and Maarten Wynants, and Groenewegen has proved that he can handle these conditions. At the same time he has again shown on numerous occasions that he has the speed to challenge the very best. The big problem has been the lead-out as he has either lost his teammates or they have hit the front too early. If they can finally get things right, Groenewegen is perfectly suited to this stage.

 

The same goes for Edward Theuns. The Belgian is great when it comes to positioning and this has made him hugely consistent. At the same time, Jasper Stuyven is getting better and better in the lead-outs and he did an amazing job in stage 6 until Theuns was pushed off his wheel by Guarnieri. Theuns, Stuyven and Cancellara are among the best in the echelons so if the group splits, they could very well have the best lead-out. A tough race is great for a strong rider like Theuns so this is a big chance for him.

 

Bryan Coquard has proved that he is one of the fastest in this race but this stage is far from ideal for him. First of all, neither he nor his team has much experience in the classics so these conditions will be hard for them. Secondly, this kind of flat power sprint is not great for a tiny guy like Coquard. Finally, his team is not strong enough to match the best trains and he has had to start his sprints from too far back. He is still one of the fastest but it will be difficult to win this stage.

 

Finally, we will point to Dan McLay. In both the GP Denain and stage 6, the Brit has proved that he has an amazing speed. The big problem for him is his lack of team support and if the race splits up, it will be very hard for him to make it into the first group. However, if it’s a big bunch kick, his sprint in stage 6 proves that a stage win is not totally out of reach for the talented Briton.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: André Greipel, Mark Cavendish

Outsiders: Alexander Kristoff, Peter Sagan, Dylan Groenewegen

Jokers: Edward Theuns Bryan Coquard, Daniel McLay