Chris Froome made a major coup in what many had hoped to be an easy sprint stage and even though the gains were minor, it has definitely boosted his morale ahead of the next major battle between the overall contenders. The famous Mont Ventoux is set to make the first big separation between the favourites but unfortunately strong winds have forced the organizers to shorten the climb by six kilometres.

 

The course

Among the climbs that are regularly used for summit finishes at the Tour de France, two have a special status. L’Alpe d’Huez has written itself into the history of the race and holds a special place in the race, always featuring on the course every second year. The second legendary mountain is Mont Ventoux but it’s a much rarer feature on the course. In fact, it has only been used four times since the turn of the century but this year it will make a welcome return after a relatively short three-year absence. With its unique positon as a lonely climb in Provence, it always serves as a great way to break the monotony in between the two major mountain ranges and keep the GC riders busy at a point of the race where it is usually all about staying safe. With its inclusion, things couldn’t have been more different: now the riders face one of the most important and hardest stages at a time when the GC is usually relatively unchanged.

 

To make the stage even more special, it will even be held on Bastille Day, just like it did in 2013. This year the riders were set to cover 184km from Montpellier to the top of the mythical mountain and like almost every Mont Ventoux stage, it can be split into two parts. First the riders will travel along completely flat roads in a norteasterly direction as they continue their journey from the Pyrenees to the Alps. Along the way, they will contest the completely flat and straight intermediate sprint at the 102.5km mark.

 

Shortly after the sprint, the riders will turn north to head towards Mont Ventoux and this signals a slight change in the terrain. The double climb of the category 4 Cote de Gordes (3.3km, 4.8%) and category 3 Col des Trois Termes (2.5km, 7.5%) serve a as a warm-up for the big finale. The top of the latter was set to come with 48.5km to and is followed by a short descent and a flat section that lead to the city of Bedoin at the bottom of the final climb. The legendary ascent averages 8.8k% over 15.7km and is known for its brutally tough stat. The first 8km in the forest have gradients of 8-12% for most of the time but there is a small chance to recover in the easy section at Chalet Reynard after 10km of climbing. Then the road ramps up in the famous sandy moonscape near the top where the gradient only gets harder and harder until it culminates at 9.5% for the finale kilometre. In the final 1000m, there is a sharp turn with 800m to go and then a hairpin bend leads to the 80m, 5m finishing straight.

 

Unfortunately, strong winds have forced the organizers to shorten the stage. The riders will skip the moonscape part of the climb and instead they will finish at Chalet Reynard six kilometres from the top.

 

As said, Mont Ventoux is a regular feature on the course. It was last used in 2013 when Chris Froome crushed the opposition to put 29 seconds into Nairo Quintana and 1.23 into Mikel Nieve and Joaquim Rodriguez. In 2009, Juan Manuel Garate beat Tony Martin in a two-rider battle on a day when Lance Armstrong secured the final third place in the race. In 2002, Richard Virenque emerged as the strongest from a breakaway while Marco Pantani famously won the stage in 2000 after Lance Armstrong had apparently given him the victory as a gift. The climb has often been used at the Criterium du Dauphiné too, with Sylwester Szmyd winning in 2009, Christophe Moreau riding away in2007, Denis Menchov being the strongest in 2006, and Alexandre Vinokourov, Iban Mayo, Denis Menchov and Tyler Hamilton winning in 2005, 2004, 2002 and 2000 respectively. In 2008, Robert Gesink won a Paris-Nice stage that finished a few kilometres from the top.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Mont Ventoux is famously known for its windy conditions and it will again be an issue for this year’s stage. In fact, the wind is the reason that the stage has been shortened.

 

It will be a sunny day with a maximum temperature at the bottom of the final climb of 22 degrees but the big issue will be the strong northerly wind. This means that the riders will have a crosswind almost all day until they turn into a headwind at the bottom of the first climb. On the final climb, there will be a crosswind in the first part and a cross-headwind in the second part.

 

The favourites

Already at the start of the year, Sky team principal Dave Brailsford said that the British team were going to use their strong team to ride aggressively and differently compared to what they have done in the past. That has been the case all year. They tested the approach at the Volta a Catalunya where they had a unusually aggressive tactic and since then they have continued in a similar manner.

 

The team has opted for surprises at this year’s Tour too. The first change of plan came on stage 8 when Sergio Henao went on the attack instead of the team setting the usual strong pace on the front. However, the big shock was of course Froome’s attack over the top and on the descent which proved that the Brit is far more than a strong time triallist and a great climber.

 

At that point, it was hard to imagine that the team was going to top that performance but they had another ace up their sleeves. Today Froome delivered a true masterpiece. As we said yesterday, there was always a chance that he would be able to gain time in the crosswind but we had expected him to use his strong team to do so. Instead, he bridged across to Bodnar and Sagan with an attentive and very strong solo move which speaks volumes about his current strength. On paper, it should be impossible for four riders to keep several sprint teams at bay but a true demonstration of force allowed them to stay away.

 

Many regard grand tours as a battle in time trials and the mountains. However, a three-week race should honour the most versatile rider and Froome has indeed proved to be the most versatile rider in the field. Until now he has been relatively defensive in the mountains and instead he has made the difference on the flats and the descents. It’s hard to remember a rider seizing the opportunities in such a surprising and inspiring way.

 

At the same time, today’s performance bodes very well for the first time trial. At the start of his grand tour career, Froome was an excellent time triallist but reality is that he has not been at former level since the 2014 Dauphiné. Last year he probably didn’t do much TT training as there was almost no time trialling at the Tour but this year he is likely to have given it more attention. The way he powered along the flat roads to Montpellier and bridged the gap to big engines like Sagan and Bodnar indicates that he has regained his former strength on the flats. That bodes well for the first TT which has a few climbs but also sections of straight, flat roads.

 

Before he gets there, he has another big battle to survive. Ever since the start of the race, most of the contenders have pointed to the block of the Ventoux stage and the time trial as the key point in the race. The Alps will of course be very important but the time gaps created in the next two stages will establish a firm hierarchy that will dictate the tactics and proceedings in the four big stages in the final week. At the end of Friday’s stage, we will know a lot more about who’s going to win the Tour.

 

It’s a big shame that the stage has been shortened but in fact it may actually make the stage more selective. With the strong headwind in the final, exposed part, there was a big chance that it would have been a conservative and less aggressive race. Now the riders will battle it out in the steepest part where there will be a crosswind and where they will be protected from the wind by the many trees. They don’t face the prospect of having to ride solo for six kilometres into a headwind. Now there will only be a headwind for the final kilometre so it should inspire people to be in an attacking mode.

 

However, the time trial will be in the back of the minds of most riders. The time losses in that stage can be equally huge so some riders may be reluctant to go too deep into the red zone. Still we should see bigger time gaps than we did in Andorra as Mont Ventoux is much harder.

 

It is important to observe that the wind may play a role even before we get to the climb. The riders will have a crosswind in the first flat section and everybody saw how nervous it was in today’s stage. There is no reason to suggest that it will be any different in tomorrow’s stage so things could split up even before we get to the climb. Of course there’s a headwind section before we get to Mont Ventoux so the teams may be reluctant to really attack. However, the nervousness will be huge and this means that it will probably be another very, very fast stage.

 

This will also make it very hard for the breakaway to make it. Even without the wind, it would be difficult. Chris Froome has already won on Mont Ventoux once and he can hardly hide that it is a very big goal for him to repeat that feat. This means that we expect Sky to try to control things. Nairo Quintana would also love to win this stage so it’s not impossible that Movistar will do some work too even though we think that they will try to save as much energy as possible for the Alps.

 

However, they may only have to really set the pace in the headwind section. The crosswind part will probably be like today, with the big teams all lined out on the front. As said, we don’t expect echelons to be formed as the teams will be less aggressive but the tension will make it fast. This will make it hard for the break to get much of an advantage.

 

On the other hand, many riders have their eyes on this stage, especially Thibaut Pinot and Rafal Majka. Hence, it will be a very aggressive and fast start but it won’t be easy for the tiny climbers to join the break with this kind of flat and windy start. It requires a lot of luck to join the break and as said, we expect it to be caught relatively early.

 

While we don’t expect the peloton to split up early in the stage, it could very well do so in the run-in to the climb. That happened in 2009 and again we could see splits in what will be a very hectic final flat section. It’s definitely not impossible that some climbers will lose ground before we even get to the climb. It could be a day on the defensive for riders like Louis Meintjes and Joaquim Rodriguez.

 

In the end, it will be a fight between the GC riders on the climb. It’s a very steep one so it should be less tactical and more about the legs. That makes Chris Froome our stage winner pick. The Brit was unable to drop his rivals in Andorra where he tried to attack twice. However, there was a strong headwind and this made it much harder for him to make a difference. That made him more afraid of making a 100% attack as he was always afraid of a counter-attack from Quintana. Hence, no one can say that Froome is less strong than he has been in past years.

 

Froome’s plan has always been to peak a little later to avoid the usual fatigue in the third week and he seems to be on track. He has shown no signs of fading yet and today’s performance actually indicates that he is getting better. Furthermore, his performance in Andorra was very strong. As Movistar manager Eusebio Unzue said, it was probably even more difficult to shut down all those attacks than it was to ride away solo. Froome was the strongest rider in Andorra and nothing suggests that it will be different tomorrow.

 

Finally, Froome is faster than Nairo Quintana in a sprint. Even if he is unable to drop the Colombian, he will still have the upper hand. Quintana has to get rid of Froome to win the stage. We doubt that he will be strong enough to do so and Froome is our favourite to win the stage.

 

Nairo Quintana is obviously the second biggest favourite. The Colombian has not attacked yet as his plan has always been to ride defensively in the first part and make the difference in the final part. Tomorrow’s stage is the first opportunity for him to really make a big attack but we are still not totally convinced that he will do so. He is very confident in his ability to recover in the third week and he is very cautious when it comes to spending unnecessary energy. At the same time, he has the time trial coming up so he may hold something back again.

 

On the other hand, he will definitely strike if he sees some kind of weakness from Froome and it’s definitely not impossible for him to win the stage. The Colombian claims to be stronger than he was 12 months ago and it is clearly true that he has been better than ever in 2016. Still there’s a pretty big gap to close compared to 2015 but he should be closer this year. We doubt that it’s enough yet but it’s not impossible for Quintana to beat Froome in a direct duel.

 

For years, Richie Porte has been the third best climber in the world and he underlined that status with a very strong showing in stage 9. In fact, he rode a lot in the wind so for him to finish just 2 seconds behind Froome and Quintana was impressive. At the Dauphiné, he proved that he can match Froome and it’s definitely possible that he will be able to do so tomorrow. Furthermore, Porte has lost a bit of time so he will have more freedom. If he is on his limit, Froome will focus on Quintana and that could allow Porte to ride away. The main question is whether Porte can maintain his level for three weeks but until now he is not showing any signs of weakness.

 

Right from the start of the race, we have said that we have huge expectations for Daniel Martin and he has lived up to our predictions. The Irishman was clearly the fourth best in Andorra and it is evident that his move to Andorra and lower weight has paid off. He still seems to have his usual punch but now he is much stronger on the long climbs. He is showing no signs of fatigue and like Porte he will have more freedom, mostly because he is a very poor time triallist. Finally, he is the fastest in a sprint so if he is there when the road flattens in the final headwind part, he will be very hard to beat. He just has to gauge his effort a little wiser. If he does so, he can win this stage.

 

With a win at the Clasica San Sebastian, Adam Yates has already proved that he can beat the stars in the biggest races. Hence, it is no big surprise that he is still up there in the GC. The big challenge for him would be to survive the first week and he has done so in splendid fashion. It remains to be seen whether he can maintain his level for three weeks but he is still riding very strongly. Unlike Martin and Porte, he gauged his effort perfectly in stage 9 where he was not quite at the level of the four best. He wasn’t far off though and he is still a bit of an underdog so he won’t be too heavily marked. Furthermore, he is fast in a sprint.

 

Bauke Mollema is riding better than ever. Since stage 8, it has been clear that the Dutchman has improved his level significantly and he is on track for a great race. He has proved that he has the consistency and he usually gets stronger and stronger. He even went on the attack in stage 9 and if he hadn’t done so he may have stayed with the best. Tomorrow he should again be up there and as he has lost a bit of time, he has more freedom. Furthermore, he is fast in a sprint and he is stronger on the flats than most of his rivals. This means that he will be fresher at the bottom of the climb after what is likely to have been a very stressful start to the stage.

 

Louis Meintjes lost time in the crosswinds today so he will be eager to strike back. At the Dauphiné, the South African already showed how much stronger he has become as he was climbing with the very best. He is a bit of a diesel engine and will get stronger and stronger. He should find the steeper Ventoux to his liking and he won’t be too heavily marked. He may lose time in the crosswind but if he can start the climb with the best, he will be a danger man.

 

As said, we don’t really believe in a breakaway but it’s not totally impossible. If Movistar and Sky both prefer to save energy and things slow down in the headwind section, a strong group can stay away. However, it’s a bit of a lottery to predict who’ll make it into the break with this kind of flat start and you need to be a very strong rider to get into the right group. At the same time, only the very good climbers will be able to finish it off.

 

Until now Thibaut Pinot and Rafal Majka have been aggressive in the mountains but they will suffer in the flat part and probably mark each other very closely. Instead, we will point to riders riders like Vincenzo Nibali, Ilnur Zakarin, Winner Anacona, Jan Bakelants, Stephen Cummings and Rui Costa who all have the form, power on the flats and climbing skills to win here.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Chris Froome

Other winner candidates: Nairo Quintana, Richie Porte

Outsiders: Dan Martin, Adam Yates, Bauke Mollema, Louis Meintjes

Breakaway jokers: Vincenzo Nibali, Tanel Kangert, Ilnur Zakarin, Winner Anacona, Jan Bakelants, Stephen Cummings, Rui Costa