A huge drama destroyed the Mont Ventoux stage which didn’t do as much damage as many had expected. However, the time gaps will be much bigger on Friday afternoon when the riders have faced one of the most important stages of the entire race: the rolling 37.5km time trial that is a perfect opportunity for Chris Froome to deal his rivals a decisive blow.

 

The course

There will be no chance to recover after the toughest summit finish of the entire race as the riders will head straight into another key stage. Since he took over the reins, Christian Prudhomme has scaled down the amount of time trialling significantly, culminating at last year’s race which only had 13.8km of individual riding at the very start of the race. This year the amount has been increased significantly but the two time trials are far from being the flat power courses that have dominated the race in the past.

 

While the second TT is almost a mountain time trial, the first individual test in stage 13 is definitely not flat either as two tough climbs during the 37.5km will make it a difficult affair for the big specialists. Instead, it’s a perfect stage for versatile GC riders who can use their combination of power and climbing skills to deal their rivals in a relatively long stage that will turn out to be one of the most important of the entire race.

 

The 37.5km stage will bring the riders from Bourg-Saint-Andéol to La Caverne du Pont-D’Arc and will see the riders travel in a westerly direction for most of the day until they turn around in the final part of the course. Right from the start, the going gets tough as it’s straight onto the Cote de Bourg-Saint-Andéol which averages 4.9% over 6.9km. The first intermediate time is taken at the top and then the riders will get to the easiest section of the course. The next part is made up of long, straight, flat roads that lead to the second intermediate time check after 17.5km of racing. From here, the flat racing continues for a few more kilometres until the riders get to a relatively technical descent.

 

After the downhill section, the terrain again becomes flat but the road is a winding one as opposed to the long straights that characterized the first part of the race. The final time check will be taken after 28km and then the flat riding continues for another 6.2km. In the finale, the riders face a 3.3km climb that averages 4.9% and leads straight to the finish. It’s a winding road with numerous turns that ends with a 250m, 5.5m wide finishing straight.

 

La Caverne du Pont d’Arc hasn’t hosted a major bike race for more than a decade.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The strong wind that has had a big impact on the last two stages won’t disappear for the time trial.

 

Friday will be a sunny day with a maximum temperature of 25 degrees and we should have none of the rain that has destroyed so many time trials in 2016

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However, the strong northerly wind from today’s stage will again be present. This means that the riders will have a cross-headwind on the first climb, a crosswind in the flat section and a headwind in the final flat part. On the final climb, it will first be a tailwind, then a headwind and finally a cross-tailwind for the final part. The wind may abate slightly in the second part and as it will be a headwind more than a tailwind, the late starters may have an advantage

 

The favourites

What a drama! And what a shame! A great spectacle was destroyed by a huge scandal and the Ventoux stage turned out to be a much bigger drama than anyone could have predicted. The commissaires definitely made the right decision not to punish Richie Porte and Chris Froome for the incident but they were still the losers. The trio was gaining time and Alejandro Valverde had blown up. There is no doubt that they would have gained significantly more time if they had been together in the tough headwind section in the end.

 

The stage was ruined by the spectators but it still gave us a few important signs. First of all Nairo Quintana is clearly not as strong as many had expected. We were not surprised by his lack of aggression in Andorra as we were convinced that it was part of a tactical plan. However, it may have been a result of a lack of ability. The Colombian’s attacks in today’s stage were surprising poor and Wout Poels responded with apparent ease. When Bauke Mollema attacked, he was unable to follow and in the end he was even paced to the finish by Valverde. It is still way too early to write Quintana off as he has a great ability to recover in the third week and many will remember how he bounced back from illness to win the 2014 Giro. However, his performance in today’s stage was definitely a worrying sign.

 

Secondly, Richie Porte was just as strong as we expected. For years, he has been up there with the likes of Froome and Quintana but this is the first time that he has had a chance to ride for himself. Unlike in Andorra, he rode wisely to wait for Froome’s attack and he never gave the Brit an inch. The consistency will still be the big challenge but until now he has shown no signs of weakness. Furthermore, he is famously known for his fragile morale so it is very important for his further progress in this race that his confidence must have been boosted considerably by today’s performance.

 

Already yesterday we pointed as Bauke Mollema as a strong outsider but we had never expected him to ride this strongly. The Dutchman has looked very strong until now and if he had raced more defensively in Andorra, he would have finished with the best. However, this is still the best climbing performance he has ever done and as he is known for his great consistency, he is now a big podium candidate. The main question will be the time trials as he has failed to build on the progress he showed a few years ago and many will remember the disastrous time trial he did at the 2014 Tour de France. In any case, this is a great way to strike back at a time when his leadership at Trek is under threat by the arrival of Alberto Contador.

 

The big disappointment was of course Daniel Martin. Was it just a bad day? Or is the Irishman starting to fade? No one really knows and we will have to wait a bit before we get the true answer. He is a poor time triallist so he will probably lose a lot of time in tomorrow’s stage in any case. We will learn more about the inconsistent Irishman when we get to the climbs in the Jura Mountains and the Alps.

 

Finally, it is important to note that Fabio Aru is showing signs of progress. Unlike many of the other riders in the GC battle, he is a proven grand tour contender and even though he is always a bit inconsistent in grand tours, his amazing fighting skills always allow him to remain in contention. At the same time, Louis Meintjes’ diesel engine is getting stronger and stronger and as Adam Yates’ consistency is still questionable, the battle for the white jersey is still very exciting.

 

The next big test will be tomorrow’s time trial. Until now the climbs have made surprisingly little damage but that will change in stage 13. A 37.5km time trial will always create rather big gaps and tomorrow afternoon we will have a much clearer picture of who’s going to win the race.

 

We are actually pretty excited about the course for the time trial. It’s a beautiful mix of everything with two tough climb, a descent and a long power section. This means that it is pretty hard to predict and open to a lot of different riders. The specialist will be able to make the difference on the flats but with a total amount of climbing of more than 10km, riders like Dan Martin, Fabio Aru, Adam Yates, Louis Meintjes, Warren Barguil, Romain Bardet and Joaquim Rodriguez who would usually be big losers, will be allowed to limit the damage. The climbers won’t win the stage but they will do much better than in a traditional Tour de France time trial. On the other hand, the long flat section means that it’s vastly different from a Vuelta al Pais Vasco time trial and specialists like Tony Martin, Rohan Dennis, Tom Dumoulin and Fabian Cancellara who all climb well, will definitely be competitive.

 

The weather has marred numerous time trials in 2016 but luckily it seems that it will have less of an impact on this one. However, the wind will abate slightly in the afternoon and this should favour the GC riders a bit.

 

It’s a tough one to gauge but we will put Chris Froome on top of our list of favourites. The Brit was once one of the best time triallists in the world and if this had been 2013, we would have had no doubt that he would win this stage. However, Froome is no longer the time triallist he once was and in fact he didn’t do a single good TT from June 2014 until May 2016. Surprisingly, he was even the big loser in the TT at the 2014 Vuelta.

 

The poor performances can partly be explained by a lack of focus on TTs as the 2015 Tour had very little time trialling. However, his decline had started even before the course for that race had started so it can’t explain everything. On the other hand, Froome has shown signs of progress recently. This year he has only done one real TT, at the Tour de Romandie, and he finished a fine fourth there. The course had a tough climb and was pretty similar to this one. It is also important to remember that he was out of the GC battle in that race and he may have done even better if he had been riding for the overall win.

 

What makes Froome our favourite for the stage is his performance in stage 11. The way he bridged the gap to Sagan and Bodnar, proves that he is very powerful on the flats. He is still unlikely to match the likes of Martin and Dumoulin in the middle section but he won’t be too far off. At the same time, almost one third of the distance is uphill and this clearly favours Froome. Maybe he hasn’t been able to ride away from the rest like he has done in the past but that’s partly due to a more conservative approach. He wants to stay fresher for the third week so there is no reason to suggest that he won’t be the fastest on the climbs. With the power he showed in stage 11, this should be enough to win the stage, especially if it’s less windy for the late starters.

 

If he could design a course by himself, Tom Dumoulin would have come up with something like this. He loves hilly time trials as he is a better climber than the likes of Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara and more powerful on the flat than the GC riders. He was ill before the Tour and had a terrible start to the race but his legs really came around in the Pyrenees. He almost rode up to Andorra as fast as the GC riders and he kept strong climbers like Majka and Pinot at bay. This shows that his form is great and that his altitude training has paid off again.

 

Dumoulin will be very motivated for tomorrow’s stage which is his big test for Rio. He had hoped to save energy in today’s stage but had to work harder than he wanted when Barguil had been dropped in the crosswinds. Nonetheless, he still had an easier day than Froome and this will be an advantage. Unfortunately, he has not been time trialling at his best this year and he has lost some TTs that he should usually have won, most notably in Paris-Nice and Romandie. However, he seems to be close to peak condition and on a course like this he will always be a big favourite.

 

A few years ago, Tony Martin would have been the overwhelming favourite. However, the former world champion has been time trialling poorly in the last two seasons. In fact he has only won one TT in 2016, the German Championships. Admittedly, he hasn’t done many TTs but he has been beaten in races that he would usually have won. It comes on the back of a bad 2015 season where he delivered a very disappointing performance at the Worlds.

 

At the same time, the course is not ideal for Martin. He would have preferred a much flatter course as he is the best in the world on a power course. However, he is preparing for the hilly race in Rio and so he has been working a lot on his climbing. This has evidently paid off as he has been absolutely flying on the climbs at both the Dauphiné and the Tour. The way he bridged the gap to Pinot and Majka in stage 8 was impressive and his form is obviously great. Like Dumoulin, he spent a bit more energy than he wanted in today’s stage but he will be fresher than the GC riders. With his improved climbing skills, he can definitely win this stage.

 

Richie Porte is obviously in the form of his life and this makes him very dangerous for this TT. The Australian has always been one of the best in the world and he was even close to Worlds medals in 2010 and 2011. Since then he has lost a bit of power on the flats but he was still an excellent fourth in the TT on the flat course at the 2013 Tour. Unfortunately, he hasn’t done many time trials in recent years but he has indicated that he still has the ability to do extremely well, even on flatter courses. He famously beat Rohan Dennis on a rolling course at Nationals in 2015 at a time when he was still not in his best form. This course is not very different and suits him great. We won’t be surprised if Porte wins this stage.

 

Rohan Dennis has been very anonymous in this race but he seems to be riding pretty well. He has been up there on the climbs much longer than he was last year and like Martin and Dumoulin he is building for Rio. Being a versatile rider, he is suited to this kind of rolling course but the main question is his ability to recover. After all, he has always faded a bit in grand tours and it will be harder for him in the second half of a three-week race. On the other hand, he is showing little sign of fatigue yet and if he has the legs, he had last August and September, he can win this stage.

 

Fabian Cancellara dreams about a final TT win at the Tour and this is his last chance. However, the course is not ideal for him. In the past, he would have been a big favourite even for a stage like this – after all he won Olympic gold on harder course in Beijing – but he is no longer the time triallist he once was. Furthermore, we haven’t been impressed by his form in this race and even though he claims to be feeling better, he is still not at his best. On the other hand, he has done some very good time trials in 2016 and a few years ago he beat Tony Martin on a similar course at a time when Martin was close to his very best. It won’t be easy but you can’t rule Fabian Cancellara out.

 

One of the big question marks is Ion Izagirre. The Basque has been one of the best in a hilly time trial for years but in 2016 he has been at a different level. He crushed the opposition in the Tour de Suisse TT and won the Tour de Romandie prologue. This course is ideal for him but the main question is whether he will be allowed to go full gas. However, Movistar have their eyes on the teams classification so we think he will. Unfortunately, he has never been very consistent in grand tours and he seems to have faded considerably already. He is unlikely to be as strong as he was in Switzerland.

 

Vasil Kiryienka still hasn’t won a stage in the rainbow jersey. He would love to do so here and he definitely has a chance. He is climbing excellently in this race, better than ever, and this stage both has the length and the course for him to do well. The main question is whether Sky will allow him to give it his all. On the other hand, he can serve as an important reference for Froome later in the day.

 

How will Thibaut Pinot approach the stage? The climber who was known as a poor time triallist has suddenly turned into one of the best in the world. He beat Dumoulin on a hilly course at the Tour de Romandie and was in a class of his own at the French Championships. However, his main goal is to win a stage and the mountains jersey so he may prefer to save energy for later. On the other hand, this is his first chance to wear his national jersey so he must be motivated. The course suits him well and his form is obviously progressing.

 

Wilco Kelderman is not climbing as well as he did in 2014 but his time trialling has been at an all-time high for more than a year. He has done some great time trials in both 2015 and 2016, most recently at the Tour de Suisse. Unfortunately, he crashed a few days ago and he is still recovering. Today he dropped out of GC contention but that may have been a deliberate choice as his main goal has always been a stage win. If he feels well again, this is a very good time trial for him.

 

Steve Cummings is another TT specialist who should find the mixed course to his liking. Everybody saw how strong he was in stage 7. Unfortunately, he seems to be pretty tired and he rode pretty poorly in the break on stage 10. On the other hand, he was up there on a day that was very hard so his form is definitely not bad.

 

Jerome Coppel has always been a good time triallist but in the last 12 months he has been extremely strong. He rode very well at the Vuelta and won bronze at the Worlds. He started the year strongly but unfortunately his last few time trials have been disappointing. He doesn’t seem to be in great form either. On the other hand, he is one of the select few who can really be up there on a course like this.

 

Finally we will point to the always unpredictable Thomas De Gendt. The Belgian is very inconsistent and no one knows how he will do here. Usually, he doesn’t do well in the TTs but in the Tour he has a great history. He has already been in the top 3 twice, most recently in 2013. At the moment, he is clearly in excellent form. Of course he spent a lot of energy today so he may not go full gas. On the other hand, you can never hold an in-form De Gendt back.

 

For other strong contenders, keep an eye on Nairo Quintana who has improved massively, Nelson Oliveira, Tejay van Garderen, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Tanel Kangert, Stef Clement, Reto Hollenstein, Sylvain Chavanel and Maciej Bodnar.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Chris Froome

Other winner candidates: Tom Dumoulin, Tony Martin

Outsiders: Richie Porte, Rohan Dennis, Fabian Cancellara, Ion Izagirre

Jokers: Vasil Kiryienka, Thibaut Pinot, Wilco Kelderman, Steven Cummings, Jerome Coppel, Thomas De Gendt, Nairo Quintana