Chris Froome failed to be a dominant Tom Dumoulin in the time trial but he extended his lead significantly and now has it firmly in his hands before we get to the decisive days in the Alps. First, however, the sprinters will be back in action for one final sprint stage before Paris on what will be a very long day with a strong headwind.

 

The course

After two crucial GC stages, there will be a short chance to breathe for the GC riders who will relish the easier course for stage 14. Last year the organizers barely gave any room to the sprinters during the traditional journey between the Pyrenees and the Alps but this year there are three chances for the fastmen. After the missed opportunities in Revel and Montpellier, the fast riders should again be in the spotlight in stage 14 which brings the riders to the outskirts of the northern part of the Alps where the race will be decided in the final week.

 

At 208.5km, it is one of the longest stages of the race and will bring the riders from Montélimar to Villars-les-Dombes Parc des Oiseaux close to the major city of Lyon. All day they will be travelling in a northerly direction and there won’t be many challenges when it comes to the terrain. The category 4 climb of Cote de Puy-Saint-Martin (3.6km, 5.2%) comes after just 20.5km of racing and then flat roads lead to a hillier section with the category 4 climbs of Cote du Four-à-Chaux (3.9km, 4.2%) and the Cote d’Hauterives (2.1km, 5.5%).

 

The rolling terrain will continue for a few kilometres until the riders get to the slightly uphill intermediate sprint at the 145.5km mark. From there, it’s back onto almost completely flat roads that lead all the way to the finish. Here the riders can look forward to a very easy finale as there are only two turns in the final 10km, the final of those coming just at the 3km to go mark. From there, it is a long, straight, flat, 7m wide road.

 

Villars-les-Dombes has not hosted a Tour de France stage for more than a decade. Last year it hosted the finish of a stage at the Criterium du Dauphiné which was won by Nacer Bouhanni in a bunch sprint. Two years earlier Tony Martin beat Rohan Dennis and Chris Froome in a long, flat time trial in Parc des Oiseaux.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

After three days with very strong wind, the riders will be pleased to know that it will abate slightly for stage 14. There will still be a strong wind from a northerly direction but it won’t be as hard as it has been in last few days. After a short crosswind section in the beginning, it will be a very long day with a headwind. In the finale, there will be a short crosswind section between the 3km and 5km to go marks, and then it will be a cross-headwind for the final 3km.

 

It will be day of bright sunshine and the maximum temperature at the finish will be a pleasant 25 degrees.

 

The favourites

The time trial did just as much damage as expected and Chris Froome confirmed that he is close to his 2013 level in the time trials. He couldn’t do anything against an unstoppable Tom Dumoulin who firmly established himself as the favourite for the Olympics, but he can certainly live with the second place. His rivals, most notably Nairo Quintana, had hoped to get to the Alps within shooting distance of the Brit and until yesterday they were on track as the gaps were unusually strong. After today, however, Froome can even allow himself to have a bad day and with a formidable Sky team at his side, it seems that he needs some pretty bad luck to miss out on a third win.

 

For Quintana, it was another hugely disappointing day and it is evident that the Colombian is not at 100%. This year he has done some outstanding TTs on courses that were pretty similar to this one but today he was back at his usual mediocre level. More importantly, he not only lost time in the flat middle section. Froome gained massive amounts of time even on the climbs. On the final rise to the finish, Quintana actually did better than most of his rivals but he still lost 23 seconds to Froome between the final time check and the finish line.

 

On a positive note for Movistar, Alejandro Valverde did one of his best Tour de France time trials ever and the Spaniard has definitely been much stronger than his captain in the last two days. It will be interesting to see whether this changes the dynamics in the team. Valverde can’t win the race but maybe he has a better shot at the podium than Quintana. Will Movistar still go for the win or are a podium and a teams classification win now the best targets?

 

The other big losers were of course BMC. Tejay van Garderen and especially Richie Porte should have gained a lot of time in this stage but they both did surprisingly poorly. Porte was very strong in the beginning but he lost lots of ground in the middle section. That’s no big surprise as he has always had difficulties in windy TTs and this was probably what cost him a lot of time. His ride on the first climb shows that the form is there but this will be a blow to his morale. Until now he has remained strong despite the huge amount of bad luck but it could soon start to hurt his fragile mentality.

 

Bauke Mollema was of course the second big winner. The Trek captain confirmed that his strong showing yesterday was no fluke and he did the time trial of his life. He was strong on both the flats and the climbs and in fact he didn’t even lose much to Froome on the final ascent. With his great consistency, he now looks like a very solid runner-up candidate.

 

For Romain Bardet, Fabio Aru, Joaquim Rodriguez and Daniel Martin, it was more or less like expected. They all lost a lot and will probably have to shelve their podium ambitions. As opposed to this, Adam Yates did much better than expected. This is his first GC campaign in a grand tour so he still needs to stay consistent in the third week. However, last year he did pretty well in the tail end of the race so the indications are there that he will be able to maintain his level.

 

The next big GC battle probably comes after the rest day and the next three days should offer opportunities for sprinters, attackers and puncheurs. This year the sprinters were looking forward to a pretty good second week with three potential sprint stages. They have missed two of them so now there is only one left. Stage 14 is their final chance before Paris and they can’t allow themselves to miss out.

 

Usually, it can be difficult to control stages in the second half of a grand tour but tomorrow it should be very easy. A strong headwind means that it will be almost impossible for a breakaway so the sprint teams shouldn’t get too many problems. No one really wants to spend a long day in the headwind so there is no real incentive to attack. Hence, the break will probably go straight from the gun and then it will be a very long, slow and probably boring chase in the headwind.

 

There is a crosswind in the beginning and this will create some nervousness. However, there is no real incentive to try to split things. No one can maintain the gaps in such a long headwind section so it is not even worth trying. The first part may be slightly faster due to the nervousness but as soon as we turn into the headwind, it will be a long, slow chase led by Etixx-QuickStep, Dimension Data and Lotto Soudal. Not even the intermediate sprint will provide any excitement as no one really believes that it’s possible to beat Sagan so no one will probably even try to challenge the Slovakian.

 

The break will slowly be reeled in and then it will come down to a bunch sprint. With a 3km finishing straight that is even pretty wide, it’s a sprint for the power sprinters. However, the headwind will make things complicated as it will be a huge advantage to come from behind. It won’t be easy for anyone to time a lead-out in these conditions and patience will be the keyword for both sprinters and lead-out men.

 

Sprints at this point in a grand tour can be different from what we saw in the beginning as fatigue has started to set in. That can change the hierarchy compared to the first week as freshness is important. Usually, Marcel Kittel is not as strong in the second half as he is in the first week but this year he is showing little sign of fatigue. He has been dropped much later on the climbs than usual and he was even protecting Dan Martin from the wind on the Puerto del Cantu last Sunday. That speaks volumes about his freshness and that’s very important at this point in a grand tour.

 

At the same time, Kittel loves this kind of power sprint where it is all about speed. He has clearly proved to be the fastest in the Tour but he has had to start his sprints from too far back. There won’t be room for such an error in this kind of headwind sprint but the Etixx-QuickStep train has improved a lot. They have learned how to postpone their acceleration and they have done much better in the last few sprints.

 

On paper, only Lotto Soudal are stronger than them and their lead-out riders seem to be fresh. Fabio Sabatini is getting stronger after a slow start and Maximilano Richeze is still riding well. The finishes will be less hectic at this point in the race so it should be easier for them to move forward. With a wide road, the risk of getting boxed in is less so Kittel has a solid chance to get into a decent position. As he is the fastest, Kittel is our favourite.

 

A headwind sprint is great news for Mark Cavendish. The Brit is more aerodynamic than his rivals and he is a master in timing his sprints. That’s how he has won the first three stages in this race and this one looks great for him too. He suffered massively in the Pyrenees but was riding strongly in the crosswinds on the roads to Montpellier. He still seems to be relatively fresh.

 

The loss of Mark Renshaw is huge but Cavendish still has a good team with Eisel, van Rensburg and Boasson Hagen. They just have to drop him off on Kittel’s or Greipel’s wheel. If one of the big Germans start too early in the headwind, Cavendish will easily come around and pick up a fourth win.

 

The race has been frustrating for André Greipel. The Lotto Soudal train has been the best but they have never managed to put things together in the very hectic sprints. Greipel has been sprinting well but the positioning has never been right. In stage 3 he proved that the speed is there and it was only a bad gear choice that cost him the win. Both he and Lotto Soudal are adamant that his form is good.  

 

Furthermore, he usually maintains his strength late in a grand tour and he still seems to be pretty fresh. He rode strongly in the break yesterday. A power sprint suits him well and on paper, he still has the best train. With less hectic finishes at this late point in the race, Greipel will have a better chance.

 

When it comes to recovery, no one is going to beat Alexander Kristoff. The Norwegian just gets better and better. He proved that in stage 12 where he nearly joined the race-winning move and still had enough left to win the sprint for fourth. Unfortunately, the headwind is bad news for him as it will make the stage very easy and everybody will be fresh at the finish. On the other hand, he can rely on his strong train which is getting closer and closer to last year’s level. Kristoff likes this kind of power sprint and he is clearly in much better form that he was at the start of the race.

 

Speaking of form, Peter Sagan is of course in a class of his own. However, this stage is far from ideal for him. It is way too easy and he doesn’t have the speed to match the fastest guys. On the other hand, he is much fresher and his chances are bigger than they were earlier in the race. Timing is crucial in this kind of sprint and Sagan is a master in picking the right wheel. If he is on the wheel of a fading German powerhouse, he has a chance to come around.

 

There were some doubts about whether Dylan Groenewegen could get this far in his first grand tour but he is still here and showing little sign of fatigue. He rode very well in the crosswinds and hasn’t struggled too much in the wind. LottoNL-Jumbo have mistimed the lead-outs a bit but they have been strong enough to match the best. Groenewegen is one of the fastest riders here so if LottoNL-Jumbo can finally time things, he will be up there.

 

Daniel McLay proved how incredibly fast he is when he nearly won stage 6. Since then he has been suffering in the mountains but he is still here. He is probably not as fresh as some of the other sprinters but this kind of headwind day will be very slow. He should easily get to the finish and he definitely has the speed to deliver a surprise. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have the best team to support him but with a bit of luck he may pick the right wheel and then he is fast enough to win.

 

Bryan Coquard has proved that he is one of the fastest in this race but this stage is far from ideal for him. This kind of flat power sprint is not great for him and the headwind will make the race too easy for his rivals. Furthermore, his team is not strong enough to match the best trains – now they have even lost Angelo Tulik –  and he has had to start his sprints from too far back. On the other hand, he has been climbing really well and is clearly fresher than some of his rivals and he may benefit from aerodynamics in this headwind sprint. However, it will be difficult for him to win.

 

Christophe Laporte is not a pure sprinter but he has done really well in this race. Most importantly, he has been climbing really well and made the splits in the crosswinds. This is a clear indication that his form is excellent and he has a strong team at his side. He is not fast enough to win but he should be up there.

 

Finally, we will point to Jasper Stuyven. With Edward Theuns out of the race, Stuyven will be the Trek leader in the sprints. He is not a pure sprinter so he won’t win this kind of sprint but he can count on a very strong team. Fabian Cancellara and Gregory Rast have the power to put him into a good position and in the Vuelta Stuyven has proved that he can sprint well even in a big bunch kick like this one.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: Mark Cavendish, André Greipel

Outsiders: Alexander Kristoff, Peter Sagan, Dylan Groenewegen

Jokers: Daniel McLay, Bryan Coquard, Christophe Laporte, Jasper Stuyven