Sky kept everything firmly under control and so the Jura Mountains failed to make much of a difference in the battle for overall victory at the Tour de France. The GC riders will now take a back seat as the race heads to Switzerland for a tricky stage to Bern where sprinters, classics riders and attackers all hope to go for the win.

 

The course

After the first small test in the Jura Mountains, the next GC battle in the high mountains will be postponed until Wednesday as the riders will make a brief visit to the Swiss capital of Bern before they head into the Alpine heartland. Stage 16 has partly been regarded as a tribute to Fabian Cancellara who gets a chance to visit his home country and home region in what will be his final Tour and it will give the GC riders an opportunity to recover a bit before they take on the decisive fight. At the same, the sprinters may eye a final chance to sprint for the win before Paris but two small climbs in the finale means that it could be a day more for classics riders than real sprinters.

 

At 209km, it is another pretty long stage according to recent Tour de France standards and it will bring the riders from Moirans-en-Montagne to Bern. Starting at the foot of the mountains, the riders will first head north along mainly flat roads to make sure that they can get to Switzerland without having to go through the Alps. After around 30km, they will turn to the east and northeast which will be the direction for the final part of the stage. That doesn’t change the terrain as it will still be mainly flat, with the biggest challenge being 19.5km of gradual climbing starting at the 45km mark. Then more flat roads will lead to the French-Swiss border which will be crossed after 106km of racing.

 

In Switzerland, the terrain will be similar as the main challenge is a very small hill before the city of Brot-Dessous and then a short descent leads to another flat section that includes the intermediate sprint at the 167.5km. The final kilometre leading to the sprint is uphill at 2-3%. As the riders get closer to Bern, the terrain gets slightly more undulating and includes the category 4 climb of Cot de Mühleberg (1.2km, 4.8%) with 15.5km to go. However, the main challenge comes in the finale in the Swiss capital. A fast descent on technical roads with 4km to go leads to 1000m of flat roads and two small climbs. The first one is cobbled averages 7% over 250m, is very technical and ends at the 2km mark. 250m of flats will then precede a 600m climb that averages 6.5%. The top comes with 1.1km to go and from there it is a long, straight, 6m wide road all the way to the finish.

 

Bern has not hosted a finish of a Tour de France stage for more than a decade. It features regularly in the Tour de Suisse, most recently in 2015 when Alexey Lutsenko won a road stage and Tom Dumoulin a time trial here. In 2009, Fabian Cancellara beat Tony Martin in a lumpy time trial on the final day of the race to seal his overall victory. One year earlier he surprised the sprinters in a road stage on the final day when he beat Philippe Gilbert in a 2-rider sprint. In 2007, the Swiss won the time trial on the final day while it was Jan Ullrich who ended his professional career by winning the time trial and the overall in Bern in 2006.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The heat hit the riders hard in today’s stage and they will face another hot day on Monday. There will be bright sunshine all day and a maximum temperature at the finish of 28 degrees.

 

There will barely be any wind as there will only be a light breeze from a northeasterly direction. This means that the riders will first have a cross-headwind and then a headwind or a cross-headwind for the rest of the stage. In the finale, there will be a cross-headwind for the final 3km.

 

The favourites

The Jura Mountains didn’t do much damage in the overall standings but they may still play a significant role in the race. Sky controlled the race firmly and Wout Poels proved that he is just as strong as he was in the final week one year ago. The British team slowly reeled in all attackers and set a brutal pace that killed all desire to attack. With that kind of strength, the British team will be almost impossible to beat and it must have had a negative effect on the attacking spirit of most of the contenders. It is no surprise that almost everybody seems to have the eyes fixed on the battle for the podium.

 

We were surprised that Nairo Quintana did not even try to check whether Chris Froome had a bad day. The reason may be that he again had bad legs but it is more likely that it was a result of Sky’s massive strength. The team lost Geraint Thomas due to a puncture but they still had Mikel Nieve and Poels there at the top of the final climb. If Quintana had attacked, Froome would probably have let him go and then used his team to reel him in on the flats. Oliveira was up the road and would have been able to provide some support but it was an attack that was unlikely to yield much. Hence, it was probably a wise decision to save energy.

 

Instead, the stage ended as expected: it was a stage where you could lose the race but not win it. At least, that’s the lesson Tejay van Garderen has learned. Right from the start of the year, it has been evident that Richie Porte was the only realistic podium candidate for BMC and if it wasn’t clear yet, today’s stage should be the final confirmation that Porte deserves full leadership in a very defensive BMC team.

 

The stage also confirmed Jarlinson Pantan’s huge potential. His development has been gradual and it has taken some time for him to flourish but something has really happened this summer. He was flying in Switzerland and now he showed both great strength and maturity to win his first Tour stage. With his good climbing skills, excellent descending skills and very fast sprint, he is the complete package who should be able to win a lot more than he has done until now. Rafal Majka’s tactic was very strange as his best chance was for a regrouping to take place and then take advantage of a tactical battle. It was evident that he would never win a sprint as Pantano can even mix it up in reduced bunch kicks. Furthermore, it was a shame that Ilnur Zakarin lost his lens on the descent as it could have added some extra excitement to see a battle between Majka and the Russian on the final climb.

 

For now, the GC riders will step into the background and allow the sprinters and classics riders to come to the fore in the stage to Bern. The challenging finale makes it look like a small classic, with a short cobbled climb, some technical sections and another climb just before the flamme rouge. The organizer has compared it to Amstel Gold Race but it’s hard to regard it as a race like the Dutch classic which is much harder. This is a stage that the sprinters can also target and they would never have a chance in the Dutch race.

 

Katusha and Alexander Kristoff have been talking about this stage for days and it is the Norwegian’s best chance to win a stage. The same goes for Bryan Coquard so Katusha and Direct Energie will go all in for a sprint finish. However, the stage won’t be easy to control. If you are not a climber or a sprinter, this is the final chance to take a win and with the difficult finale, many hope that the sprint teams won’t control things. That means that we are very likely to have a very fast start with lots of attacks and it is one of those days when it can take more than an hour for the break to be formed.

 

Katusha and Direct Energie will be on their toes and try to make sure that the break is not too big or too strong and that won’t be easy. Fatigue has started to set in and at this point in a grand tour, the strongest riders can make a difference. They may opt to try to join some of the moves instead and if a strong group with representation from the key teams gets clear, it has a chance to stay away. The stage can definitely be won by a breakaway.

 

We are very curious to see how Tinkoff will approach the stage. Peter Sagan is one of the favourites in this kind of finale but Mark Cavendish also has a chance. If the Brit wins this stage and Sagan has bad luck in Paris and fails to score any points, Cavendish can win the green jersey. The safe option would be to let the break stay away but then they will miss a chance to win a stage. There are no guarantees that Tinkoff wil lend Katusha or Direct Energie a hand.

 

However, Dimension Data should do so. They have both Edvald Boasson Hagen and Cavendish as potential winners. Lotto Soudal haven’t won a stage with Greipel yet so they may also be keen to give it a shot. Kittel has not had much success yet so even Etixx-QuickStep may do some work. Finally, the stage will be a big goal for Orica-BikeExchange. They will probably allow local rider Michael Albasini to try to join the break but if they have no one on the attack, they will also try to control things.

 

Overall there are a lot of teams that want a sprint finish and as there will even be a headwind for most of the day, we expect it to come back together. However, there are no guarantees that we will indeed get a sprint. The finale is tricky and technical and there will definitely be attacks on the final climbs or in the flat section in the end. The finale is pretty similar to the one in Le Havre last year and back then Zdenek Stybar attacked over the top before soloing across the line to take the win. Positioning for the final climbs will be crucial so the sprint teams will have to use most of their resources in the run-in to the finale. That means that there may not be any domestiques left to close down an attack in the final flat section.

 

Still the most likely outcome is a sprint finish. Orica-BikeExchange have strong riders like Michael Albasini and Daryl Impey and they should be able to control things. The final climbs are not very hard and everybody should be able to survive. However, it will take the sting out of the legs of the likes of Cavendish, Greipel and Kittel. At the same time, they will drift backwards and if Tinkoff, Katusha or Direct Energie can keep a rider in reserve to string things out after the final climb, they won’t have time to get into position for the sprint. If not, they should be able to return to the front and then they definitely have a chance.

 

Peter Sagan stands out as the favourite. The Slovakian is in outstanding form, climbs better than his rival sprinters and recovers better than his rivals too. He is showing no signs of fatigue yet and this is a finale that suits him really well. Obviously he would have preferred it to be harder but he is still very strong in a finale like this.

 

Sagan will be the strongest on these climbs but the wise decision is to save energy for a sprint. No one wants to work with him so it will be a waste of energy to try to follow the moves. He has to rely on riders like Oscar Gatto, Michael Valgren and Roman Kreuziger to be up there after the climbs and then use his domestiques to string things out and keep it together.

 

On paper, Kristoff, Sagan, Kittel and Greipel are faster than Sagan but in this race he has been sprinting much better than usual. He is not far off the mark and at the end of such a tough race, the balance can be tipped. Kristoff will be a tough rival but we will put our money on the in-form world champion.

 

Alexander Kristoff had a bad start to the race but he has slowly built some form. He won the bunch sprint for fourth in the windy stage 11 and he was a strong seconds in the slow stage 14 which should usually have been way too easy for him. This shows that he is getting stronger which is no surprise as he always shines at the end of a grand tour.

 

The finale suits Kristoff really well. He is a former Tour of Flanders winner so the climbs are definitely manageable and he is the fastest in the world in a sprint at the end of a hard race. Usually, he is faster than Sagan but he won’t be as strong on the climbs. He may drift a little more backwards and probably has to dig a bit deeper to get back into position. That may cost him the final touch but if he can stay with the very first on the climbs, he is the favourite for the sprint.

 

This stage is also a very good one for Bryan Coquard. His main strength is an uphill sprint so he would have preferred if the finis came at the top of the final climb. However, he is no slouch in a flat sprint either and may even be slightly faster than Sagan. He has been riding really well in the mountains and seems to have recovered well.

 

The big issue for Coquard will be positioning. He doesn’t have the best team and he is not as strong in the fight for position as Kristoff and Sagan. He may have to use a bit more energy than those two riders to get to the front or he may have to start his sprint from too far back. He needs to get the positioning right but then he definitely has the speed to win.

 

The stage is also perfect for Michael Matthews. The Australian was disappointed with his sprinting at the start of the race but then suddenly produced better number than ever when he beat Sagan in stage 10. That really boosted his confidence and this stage will be a big goal. He is an outstanding climber so he should easily be up there but the stage is probably a bit too easy for him to beat the likes of Sagan, Kristoff and Coquard.

 

Marcel Kittel has been left frustrated but his lack of success has not been due to bad legs. He has been sprinting well and his form seems to be great. He has been riding really well in the mountains and is showing little sign of fatigue. These climbs are relatively short and he has the power to make it to the top with the best. The problem is that it may cost him too much strength and energy and that he may drift too far back to be competitive in the sprint. On the other hand, his form seems to be great and he is the fastest in a power sprint like this. Among the three big sprinters, Kittel probably has the best chances.

 

In his heydays, this stage would not have been too hard for Mark Cavendish. However, his focus on the track has clearly cost him a bit on the climbs. He is suffering more than usual in the mountains, much more than Kittel and Greipel. On the other hand, the effort here is much different, much more comparable to what he knows from the track. His confidence is excellent so it’s not impossible for him to be competitive in the sprint. After all, he has won harder stages than this.

 

On paper, it’s a great stage for André Greipel who is much stronger on these climbs than Greipel and Cavendish. However, nothing is really working for the German. Yesterday he was out of position but his sprint wasn’t very good either. His confidence is low and that makes it more likely that he will make mistakes. Still you can’t rule Greipel out. The power sprint suits him well and a rider that has been in the top 15 in the Tour of Flanders can definitely be up there on these climbs

 

It will be interesting to see how John Degenkolb handles the stage. He got a great confidence boost yesterday and usually he would have been one of the overwhelming favourites for this kind of stage. He is obviously getting better and better but he still needs more strength to really be in contention for a win in this kind of tough finale which would normally have been tailor-made for him.

 

Sondre Holst Enger, Christophe Laporte, Jasper Stuyven and Samuel Dumoulin are not pure sprinters. They all climb very well, still seem to be pretty fresh and are fast in a sprint. However, they are probably not fast enough to win. The same goes for Maximilano Richeze and Edvald Boasson Hagen who will be ready to sprint if it’s too hard for Kittel and Cavendish.

 

As said, there is a chance for a later attacker to surprise the peloton. Keep an eye on Julian Alaphilippe, Greg Van Avermaet, Tony Gallopin, Daryl Impey, Alexey Lutsenko, Jan Bakelants, Ramunas Navardauskas, Edvald Boasson Hagen and local riders Fabian Cancellara or Michael Albasini to try a repeat of a Stybar move. Those riders are also good candidates for a long-distance breakaway.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Peter Sagan

Other winner candidates: Alexander Kristoff, Bryan Coquard

Outsiders: Michael Matthews, Marcel Kittel, Mark Cavendish, André Greipel

Sprint jokers: John Degenkolb, Sondre Holst Enger, Christophe Laporte, Jasper Stuyven, Samuel Dumoulin, Maximilano Richeze, Edvald Boasson Hagen

Jokers for late attack or a breakaway: Julian Alaphilippe, Greg Van Avermaet, Tony Gallopin, Fabian Cancellara, Michael Albasini, Daryl Impey, Alexey Lutsenko, Jan Bakelants, Ramunas Navardauskas, Edvald Boasson Hagen