The first day after a rest day can be very dangerous but there will be room for errors or any chance to ease back into the rhythm. The race will be decided in the hardest four-day block of the entire race and it all kicks off with one of the hardest summit finishes of the race and the brutally steep climb to Finhaut-Emosson will give a very clear indication on who’s on form for the crucial final battles in the Alps

 

The course

Last year the organizers designed four tough mountain stages in the Alps held over four of the final five days after the second rest day. That made for an intensive and exciting end to the race where everything was almost turned around on the final climb of the race. Apparently, they liked the formula as they have repeated the idea in 2016. After the rest days, it will be all about the GC in the four days leading to the final parade into Paris. Three tough mountain stages – two of them with a summit finish – and one uphill time trial mean that the hardest part of the race comes at the very end. It all kicks off with a tough summit finish on the Swiss climb Finhaut-Emosson which was the scene of a thrilling spectacle in the 2014 Criterium du Dauphiné.

 

The 184.5km stage is held in Switzerland and will bring the riders from the capital of Bern to the top of brutal mountain at Finhaut-Emosson. Starting in the flatter part of the country, the riders will get a chance to get the legs going after the rest day as they will first travel along relatively flat roads in a southerly and southwesterly direction. As they approach the Alps, the road will gradually start to rise, culminating at the top of the category 3 climb of Cote de Saanenmöser (6.6km, 4.8%) at the 72.5km mark. Only a short descent will follow and it leads to more flat roads and the category 3 climb of Col des Mosses (6.4km, 4.4%).

 

A long descent now leads to Aigle where the UCI headquarters are located and then the riders will follow the flat valley road to the city of Martigny which often signals the start of climbing hostilities. It’s no different in this stage but first the riders will contest the flat, straightforward intermediate sprint at the 150km mark.

 

In Martigny, the riders will turn to the southwest and head into the mountains where they will go up the category 1 mountain Col de la Forclaz (13km, 7.9%). It’s a very regular climb with a constant gradient of 7-8.5%. The top comes with 18km to go and is followed by 7.6km of descending. There are no flat roads in between the final two climbs as the riders will head straight onto the lower slopes of the final climb which is of the HC category. It averages 8.4% over 10.4km and is pretty brutal. The first three kilometres are not that hard but from there the gradient doesn’t drop below the 8% mark. The finale is the hardest as the gradient stays above 9% and the final 400m even average a massive 12.3%. There are several harpin bends on the climb but the final 1600m are on a straight, 5m wide road.

 

As said, the climb made its debut at the 2014 Criterium du Dauphiné where it hosted the finish of the penultimate stage. Lieuwe Westra rode to victory from a breakaway but it was the battle between the GC riders that was the most exciting part. Chris Froome was on track for a second overall victory but after he had crashed in the flat stage one day earlier, no one knew how he was going. He turned out to be more injured than initially expected and he was unable to follow Alberto Contador who distanced him by 20 seconds and rode himself into yellow. Andrew Talansky was the second best GC rider and would go on to win the race one day later.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

There is a big risk that the riders will have rainy conditions for most of the Alpine stages but at least they should get the four-day block off to a sunny start. Wednesday will be a very hot day with bright sunshine and a maximum temperature at the finish of 28 degrees.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a westerly direction. This means that the riders will have a crosswind and a cross-headwind for most of the day. In the finale, there will be a cross-headwind on the first climb and the descent. There will be a cross-tailwind for the first three kilometres of the final climb and then a cross-headwind for the final seven kilometres.

 

The favourites

In the pre-race press conferences, all the favourites were keen to point out that the final week of the Tour de France was one of hardest in recent history. Three big mountain stages with steeper climbs than you usually find in the Tour de France and a time trial that is very close to being a real mountain time trial on four consecutive days form an unusually tough block for the French race and this has had an impact on the first part of the race and the preparation for the event. Everybody has always known that the race will be won in the Alps, not in the first two weeks, and this is part of the reason for the less aggressive racing from most of the GC riders. At the same time, many riders have gone into the race with the hope of building form throughout the race to be at their best for the next four days.

 

For many riders, the plan seems to work out. For the first time since 2012, Chris Froome is showing no signs of fatigue at this point in the race. All year he has planned to avoid the usual drop of form in the final week and so he has done far less racing in the sprint and been far less aggressive in the first part of the race. He has not made a very big attack yet and the strategy seems to pay off. If anything, Froome seems to be getting better and better which is a big contrast to 2013 and 2015.

 

Nairo Quintana is famously known for his ability to recover and he has always been very strong in the third week of his grand tours. This year his performance had been below-par and he is showing no sign of resurgence yet. However, his plan has always been to ride defensively until the final week and try to make a difference in the Alps. The first week went great but since then things haven’t worked out for the Colombian. The very strong wind in the second week didn’t do him any favour, neither on Mont Ventoux ror in the time trial, and it has been more tiring for the tiny climber than it has for Froome. That is definitely part of the explanation for his poor showing but we can expect a very aggressive Quintana in the next four days. The question is whether he has the legs.

 

His teammate Alejandro Valverde is also on an upwards trajectory. Like Froome, Valverde has often been riding poorly in the third week but last year he benefited from a new approach that saw him go into the race a bit below 100% and build form throughout the race. This year he has had a similar strategy but his plan has never been to go for GC. The main goal is the Olympics and no one can accuse him for not being the consummate teammate. He has spent a lot of energy by attacking from afar and chasing whenever Quintana has been dropped and the Spaniard would probably have been very close to the podium if he had been riding for himself. However, nothing is set to change in the final week and we can expect Valverde to ride very aggressively to really put Sky under pressure.

 

Fabio Aru and Romain Bardet are clearly also getting better and better and the same goes for the consistent diesel engine Louis Meintjes. Things look more difficult for Daniel Martin. It has always been a bit of a question mark whether the Irishman could maintain his form for three weeks and it looks like fatigue has really started to set in. He suffered on the Ventoux and even though he did a surprisingly good TT, he seemed to be close to his limit in the Jura Mountains. Adam Yates also seemed to suffer that day but the Brit is harder to read as he very often rides at the rear end of the group.

 

The fact that the riders have four difficult days in a row could again lead to some negative racing and it’s maybe a bit of a shame that the hardest summit finish comes one day before the mountain time trial. As it was the case on Mont Ventoux, many riders will be a bit reluctant to dig too deep with a very important test coming one day later. On the other hand, stage 17 is so hard that it can maybe do more damage than the TT. Mont Ventoux is a harder climb but Finhaut-Emosson is definitely the second toughest summit finish in this race. It’s rare for a Tour de France mountaintop finish to have so steep gradients.

 

To make things even harder, there are no valley roads in between the final two climbs and this means that it is possible to attack from afar and maybe even use the descent to increase the advantage. This is a day when a brave rider can really turn things around and where it is likely to be very evident who’s on form in the final week of the race. At the same time, it is important to notice that it comes one day after the rest day and this will make things even more difficult as many riders have a hard time one day after their chance to recover.

 

Another important characteristic of this stage is that it’s the longest of the three mountain stages and that it is the only one with a flat start. In fact, the only hard climbs come at the very end and this will have a big impact on how the race will pan out. First of all, it requires a lot more luck for the good climbers to make it into the break. In stage 15, it was pretty easy to predict that riders like Rafal Majka, Ilnur Zakarin and Vincenzo Nibali would be up there while it was much harder to predict the composition of the group in the Ventoux stage which had a completely flat start. It will be the same tomorrow and there is no guarantee that there will be any very strong climbers in the group that gets clear. The likes of Majka and Zakarin who seem to be on form, will have a much better chance in stages 19 and 20 where there are hard climbs right from the start.

 

Secondly, the flat start means that it will be much easier to control the stage. It will be easier to allow a small group to get clear and it will be easier to keep them at a reasonable distance. On the big mountain stages with numerous climbs, only Sky, Movistar and Astana are really strong enough to bring back the early breaks. Tomorrow a lot more teams have a chance to bring the break back and go for a stage win.

 

This also means that tomorrow’s stage could be a day for the GC riders. Usually the first stage in such a hard block is for a breakaway as the teams all want to save energy for later. However, for many riders Thursday is a small rest day and the stage is easier to control. Until now, the GC riders haven’t had the chance to go for the stage win in a summit finish but this could be their best chance.

 

In any case, it will be wat right from the beginning.  There is a still a very good chance that a break will make it so many teams want to go on the attack. It will probably be a very fast start and it will take time for the break to be formed. This is also where we will see whether the GC teams want to go for the stage. If Astana, Ag2r and Movistar want to win the stage, they will try to make sure that only a small group gets clear. If we get a very big breakaway, it’s an indication that it’s a day for the escapees. If those three teams make sure that only a small group makes it, the GC riders will battle it out.

 

When the break has gone clear, Sky will take control but we doubt that the British team will do much to bring the break back. Froome already has his stage win and his main goal is the overall victory. Sky want to get as easily through the stage as possible so it will be up to others to bring the break back.

 

There are three teams that are likely to try to bring the break back. Movistar still haven’t won their stage and this is maybe their best chance. The steep final climb suits Nairo Quintana very well and it has always been their plan to go for the win in the final week. It is very important for the Spanish team to show that they haven’t given up yet and so we expect them to put Imanol Eviti on the front to try to keep the break under control. At the same time, no break will go without a Movistar rider. As in every mountain stage, the Spanish team want to have riders in the break, both for the teams classification and for tactical reasons.

 

In stage 15, Astana showed that they are ready to fight and that Fabio Aru is getting better. They haven’t had much success yet and sports director Giuseppe Martinelli has been complaining about the defensive approach of the other teams. The Kazakhs will be ready to take the race on in the final week and Aru wants to win a stage. If they don’t have a rider in the break, we expect them to try to bring it back.

 

Romain Bardet is also getting better and he has always aimed to peak in the third week. Until now he has been less aggressive than usual and he has done nothing to hide that this will change in the third week. Ag2r are close to their home roads so there is a chance that the French team will try to chase the break down.

 

With a flat start, we believe that the break will be brought back and we expect it to be a day for the GC riders. However, much will depend on whether Astana have Vincenzo Nibali in the break or not. If Nibali is up there, the break has a much bigger chance but otherwise we will put our money on the GC riders.

 

When we get to the Col de la Forclaz, we expect Movistar and Astana to try to make the race hard and Alejandro Valverde will probably try to attack already here. Romain Bardet may also try to attack over the top of the climb to try to take advantage of his great descending skills but Sky will probably control things firmly. It should come down to a battle on the steep final climb. Unfortunately, there will be a headwind and this may prompt rider to be a bit defensive, especially with a  TT coming up.

 

Chris Froome is our favourite to win the stage. The Brit has proved that he is the best climber in the race and even though he hasn’t been able to ride away from his rivals in the way he has done in the past, it’s no indication that he is less strong. In fact, his form seems to be growing and he has clearly been riding more conservative than he has done in the past to arrive fresher for the third week. With a mountain time trial on Thursday, we don’t expect him to make any big attack from afar but he will definitely give it a go closer to the summit as he always does in a summit finish. With a steeper climb, there is a bigger chance that he will be able to ride away, especially as Richie Porte seems to be fading slightly. Furthermore, he is faster in a sprint than most of his rivals and as we don’t expect anyone to be able to get rid of the formidable Brit, he will be very hard to beat in this stage.

 

Until now Richie Porte has been the second best climber in the race. In fact, he is the only one that Froome hasn’t been able to drop yet. It’s no big surprise though. Porte has been the third best climber for a couple of years and at the Dauphiné he proved that he can match Froome. Until now he has avoided his usual bad day. Of course he did a poor time trial but that was no major surprise. The Australian has always had a hard time in windy TTs and his performance on the first climb underlines that his legs are good. In the past, he has often been strong one day after a rest day.

 

The main issue for Porte is whether he can maintain his level. There have been small indications that his level has dropped slightly but he is still one of the strongest. He still has a lot of time to make up so he can no longer allow himself to ride conservatively. If anyone can beat Froome in this stage, it will definitely be Porte whose poor GC position also means that he has a bit more freedom than a guy like Quintana.

 

Nairo Quintana has not been at his best yet but it is too early to rule him out. As said, he has been holding something back to be ready for the third week and the windy conditions can partly explain his poor performances. We expect him to be better in the Alps and we have little doubt that he will ride aggressively in this stage. The big problem is that he needs to get rid of Froome to win the stage as the Brit is faster in a sprint. Until now, nothing suggests that he will be able to drop the Brit but history shows that Quintana is flying in the third week of the Tour.

 

Fabio Aru has had a very poor 2016 season and he started this race badly. However, his legs seem to have come around in time for the Alpine stages. Astana’s showing in the Jura Mountains was a clear indication that he is feeling good and he should find the very steep final climb to his liking. Furthermore, he has lost lots of time so he won’t be too heavily marked by Froome. Aru has often proved that he knows how to take advantage of the battle between the big guns and this is what he will try to do in this stage too.

 

The same goes for Romain Bardet. The Frenchman has confirmed what he has shown all year: that he is better than ever. He was very strong in the Dauphiné and in this race he has shown very little sign of weakness. He is known for his aggressive riding style and he is not too far off the level of the very best. Like Aru, he will be ready to exploit the battle of the favourites to make an attack in the finale.

 

Bauke Mollema has proved that he is one of the best climbers in this race and he has definitely exceeded all expectations. Tomorrow he will again be one of the best but it won’t be easy for him to win the stage. His main goal is to defend second place so he won’t ride aggressively. Furthermore, he won’t get any freedom. On the other hand, only Martin and Valverde are faster in a sprint so if he can really keep up with Froome, there is a small chance that he can come out on top.

 

If a break makes it, we will put our money on Ilnur Zakarin. The Russian is here to prepare for the Olympics and go for a stage win in the final part and he seems to be on track. He is getting better and better, did a solid time trial and rode strongly in stage 15. In that race, he and Majka were the best climbers in the break but he dropped out of contention when he lost his contact lens on the penultimate descent. He is pretty strong on the flats so he has a solid chance to make it into the break and Katusha will do their utmost for him to join the break and may even chase down early moves until he is there.

 

Rafal Majka is another obvious breakaway candidate but the flat start is far from ideal for him. However, Tinkoff’s main goal will be to get him into the break and he will probably have a very strong Peter Sagan to help him make it happen. Like Zakarin, the Pole is getting stronger and stronger and the tough finale suits him ideally. If he can make it into the break, he will be very hard to beat.

 

As said, the break will have a much better chance if Astana have one of their best riders there. That opens the door for Diego Rosa and Vincenzo Nibali. Rosa has had a rocky start to the race but he made the race explode to pieces on the Grand Colombier in stage 15. Everybody was very impressed by his speed and this indicates that his form is growing. He may have to stay with Aru but if he is allowed some freedom, he is a very good candidate.

 

Vincenzo Nibali is clearly not at his best but there is no doubt that he will be very aggressive in the final part of the race. The Italian’s form is growing and unlike many other climbers, he is strong on the flats. He has lots of freedom in the Astana team and we have no doubt that he will try to join the break. He has been very inconsistent so far but if he has the legs he had in Andorra, he can win the stage.

 

Last year Serge Pauwels was one of the best riders in this race. This year his start was less good but he is getting stronger and stronger. He claims that his values are at his 2015 level and it is certainly true that he looked strong in stage 15. He probably did a bit too much work, otherwise he would have been much closer to the best. He is strong on the flats and a master in hitting the right break.

 

Alexis Vuillermoz wasn’t at 100% at the start of the race as he has had an injury-marred spring. Now he is getting better and he wasn’t far from victory in stage 15. This is another very good opportunity and Ag2r will be keen to have him in the break as they are riding on home roads. He excels on very steep climbs so the final ascent suits him very well.

 

Julian Alaphilippe was flying at the start of the race but then had a dip in form. Now he seems to be close to his best again. He was really impressive in stage 15 and he could very well have won if it hadn’t been for his mechanical. His attack on the Grand Colombier was impressive and if he has those legs again, he will be hard to beat from a break here. The very steep final climb suits him down to the ground. The main question is whether two days in the break have taken their toll.

 

Daniel Navarro has been in almost all the breaks in the mountain stages but he hasn’t been able to finish it off. That speaks volumes about his ability to hit the right break and even though the flat start is not ideal, there is a good chance that he will be there. In stage 15, he was set back by a crash one day earlier so we can expect him to be stronger this time.

 

Pierre Rolland is out of the GC battle and now wants to ride aggressively. He gave it his first go in stage 15 and he will definitely try again. He hurt his hand in stage 8 but it is now much better and so we can expect him to be getting better and better throughout the Alps. The steep final climb is not ideal for him but he should be one of the best climbers if he joins the break.

 

Finally, we will point to Kristijan Durasek. The Croatian is hugely inconsistent but on his best day he is a great climber. In stage 15 he showed that his legs have come around and this means that he is now ready to go for a stage win. Last year he beat all the stars in a stage at the Tour de Suisse so if he can overcome the flat start and make it into the break, he can win a stage like this.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Chris Froome

Other winner candidates: Richie Porte, Nairo Quintana

Outsiders: Fabio Aru, Romain Bardet, Bauke Mollema, Ilnur Zakarin (breakaway), Rafal Majka (breakaway)

Jokers: Diego Rosa, Vincenzo Nibali, Serge Pauwels, Alexis Vuillermoz, Julian Alaphilippe, Daniel Navarro, Pierre Rolland, Kristijan Durasek (all from a breakaway)