For the third time in four years, the sprinters will get a chance to go for the first yellow jersey at the Tour de France and July 2 has been marked out as one of the two most important days of the year for almost every fast finisher on the planet. However, their opportunity to show their speed in the power sprint at Utah Beach could very well be ruined by a strong wind that could cause mayhem and make the opening stage of this year’s Tour an epic affair!

 

The course

While Jean-Marie Leblanc was still in charge of the Tour de France, the race usually a lot more time trialling than it has done in recent years, and the event always kicked off with a time trial. When Christian Prudhomme took over the responsibility, he not only reduced the number of TT kilometres, he also deviated from the pattern of having a race against the clock on the opening day.

 

In 2008 the race opened with a traditional road stage for the first time in several years, with Alejandro Valverde winning an uphill sprint in Plumelec. In 2011, the time triallists again missed the chance to go for glory on the opening day when another uphill sprint on the Mont des Alouettes saw Philippe Gilbert take the first yellow jersey of the race.

 

Since the bonus seconds were skipped in 2008, the sprinters have had no chance to ride into yellow, and until 2013 the last bunch kick expert to wear the coveted leader's jersey was Tom Boonen in 2006 (if you omit Thor Hushovd's stint in yellow in 2011 which was not due to his ability as a sprinter). In 2013, Prudhomme not only kicked off the race with a road stage. As it was completely flat, he gave the sprinters what at the time seemed to be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to take yellow on the opening day of the race. Marcel Kittel made the most of it when he won a very confusing opening sprint that saw riders like Mark Cavendish, André Greipel and Peter Sagan being held up by crashes.

 

The sprinters got another opportunity to take yellow much earlier than expected as the 2014 edition of the race again kicked off with a mostly flat stage and again it was Kittel coming out on top on a dramatic day that saw Cavendish hit the deck in Harrogate.

 

Like Greipel, the Brit has missed out on his first two chances but both are likely to get a third chance already in 2016. After last year’s time trial, a flat road stage will again kick things off in 2016 and so Greipel and Cavendish will get an opportunity to take revenge and Kittel has a chance to take a third maillot jaune in just four years.

 

After the unusual two consecutive foreign starts, the Grand Depart will be back on French soil for the first time since the Corsican premiere in 2013. This year the race will kick off from the spectacular Mont-Saint-Michel which was the beautiful backdrop for the flat 2013 time trial where Tony Martin narrowly beat Chris Froome. The 188km will bring the riders to Utah Beach at Sainte-Marie-du-Mont and will be a mainly flat affair. The first 105km will follow the lumpy coastal road that includes two small category 4 climb, Cote d’Avranches (1.2km, 5.7%) and Cote des Falaises de Champeaux (1.3km, 4.8%) at the 20.5km and 39km marks respectively. There are still some smaller climbs further up the road but none of them will count for the KOM competition.

 

In the city of Creances, the riders will leave the coast as they will head inland to approach the opposite coast. The terrain is almost completely flat and the highlight is the intermediate sprint which comes at the 118.5km mark. Coming at the end of a long, straight, flat road, it is an uncomplicated affair that suits the fastest guys.

 

With 34km to go, the peloton will again hit the coast which they will follow for around 7km before they again turn inland. 12km later they will turn around and head back along flat roads to the finish at Utah Beach. There are no major technical challenges in the finale as the final turn comes with 5.5km to go. From there a long, straight road leads to the finish on a 6m wide road. There is a small descent with 3km to go but otherwise it is a flat finale, with the final kilometre being very slightly uphill at 0.2%.

 

Utah Beach has not hosted the finish of a major bike race before.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Ever since it was announced that the 2016 Tour de France will start with at the Normandy coast, many riders have been worried about the windy conditions that often mar the region. Everybody has been studying the forecasts carefully and it seems that there is every chance that the weather will make the race spectacular.

 

A few days ago, it looked like it could be a wet start but now it seems that the riders don’t need their rain jackets. There is a 25% chance of rain in the first part of the stage but the sun is set to come out in the afternoon and the riders should reach Utah Beach under a sunny sky and in a 17-degree temperature.

 

The big obstacle will be the wind. There will be a strong wind from a westerly direction which means that there will be crosswind in the long coastal section. The riders will later turn into a cross-tailwind and then it will be a cross-headwind when they again leave the sea in the finale. A short tailwind section will lead to the final 5500 where there will be a cross-tailwind.

 

The favourites

All year the best sprinters have had two key dates in their calendar: July 2 and October 16. In recent history, there has never been a season where the fast finishers have had a realistic shot at the two most coveted jerseys in cycling. However, that’s what they get in 2016 as the yellow jersey will be up for grabs in Saturday’s first stage of the Tour de France and the rainbow jersey will be the coveted prize at the end of an expected bunch sprint in Qatar in October.

 

When ASO decided to skip the bonus seconds for the 2008 edition of the Tour de France, it looked like they would never get the sprinters would never get the chance to take the yellow jersey again. For years, it had been part of the opening week that the sprinters used the bonifications to erase their deficit from the prologue and almost every year, the dominant sprinter spent some time in the coveted leader’s jersey. However, with the decision to take out the bonus seconds, the sprinters lost that opportunity and until 2013, no sprinter managed to take yellow by virtue of their speed.

 

That changed when ASO designed a flat opening stage for the 2013 edition. At that point, it looked like it was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for the sprinters and that made it a hugely stressful affair. Especially Mark Cavendish seemed to be very stressed by the chance to get the only major cycling jersey that he has never worn and it all came to a very chaotic conclusion – most will remember how an Orica-GreenEDGE bus made things even more nervous. However, it turned out that there would be lots of future chances for the fast finishers and this year they already have a third opportunity in four years.

 

This has dampened the pre-race hype a bit. For many, it is still a dream to wear yellow but the sprinters know that they are likely to chances in the future. Furthermore, the bonus seconds have returned and even though there are now only 10 seconds for a stage win – in the past it was 20 seconds – there may be opportunities even in years when the race starts with a prologue.

 

Nonetheless, tomorrow’s opener is a huge goal for the sprinters and a win here is maybe even more prestigious than a Champs-Elysees triumph.  That sets the scene for a very stressful and nervous opener and it will only be made even worse by the brutal weather that’s forecasted.

 

Today there is barely any wind in Normandy but tomorrow there will be a strong wind from a westerly direction. This is exactly what the organizers hoped for whey they designed the stage as it means that there will be a strong crosswind in the first coastal part. Later there will be a cross-tailwind so the race could split almost at every point. This will make things hugely chaotic.

 

In 2013 and 2014, many also feared the first stages but back then the weather was pretty nice and there seemed to be an agreement between the riders to avoid the worst stress. Hence, both stages were actually pretty calm and they only got very hectic in the finale. With his kind of weather forecast, that is unlikely to happen tomorrow and this could make the first stage one of the hardest and most dramatic of the race.

 

In recent years, the break has gone clear straight from the fun and that is very to be the case in this year’s race too. The escape has no chance and the only real incentive to go on the attack is the mountains jersey which will be at stake in the first half. Expect local rider Anthony Delaplace to attack from the start and he will probably be joined by riders from teams like Cofidis, Direct Energie, Lampre-Merida, Bora-Argon 19 and maybe Dimension Data.

 

However, they may not even get to the first KOM sprint. As soon as we hit the coast, the peloton will get nervous and the fight for position will be intense right from the start. The GC riders and sprinters all want to be in front and this means that it will be very fast already from the start. The peloton can potentially split at every point of the race as it will be either a crosswind or a cross-tailwind almost all day. There will be no chance to take it easy and so the early break will probably be swallowed up very early. From there, it will be hugely stressful day with all the big teams fighting hard to stay in front.

 

It is hard to say whether the peloton will actually split. When everybody knows about the risk, it takes a much stronger wind and a very strong team to actually split the bunch. Nonetheless, it happened in the Netherlands one year ago and it could happen again tomorrow. However, the biggest risk is that the selection could be made by crashes. Last year Quintana was really dropped in the wind but Nibali only lost contact with the lead group because of a crash. The first week of the Tour is famously known for its many incidents and it will be a bit of a miracle if no one hits the deck tomorrow.

 

If the peloton splits, it could be a very fast chase in the final part of the day so it could very well be the fastest stage of the race. In the end, there is very little doubt that there will be some kind of sprint in the end but there is no guarantee that it will be the expected big bunch kick. It could be a pretty small group like it was in the second stage in 2015 or a crash could take out several contenders like it happened in the first stage in 2013.

 

This means that you need a substantial amount of luck to win this stage but a strong team is a huge advantage as it minimizes the risks. A great team is also of utmost importance in the finale. The Tour sprints are extremely stressful and lead-outs are more important here than they are at any other race of the year.

 

On the other hand, the sprint is pretty straightforward. There are no turns or climbs in the final 5500m – just a long, straight road. This makes it a great sprint for the real power sprinters and it’s a day for the riders with the highest speed. At the same time, there will be a cross-tailwind in the finale so things could even split on the finishing straight. It will be very important to move to the front pretty early to avoid getting caught out and to have a strong team for protection.

 

A power sprint means that it’s the perfect stage for Marcel Kittel and André Greipel who are the two obvious favourites. However, they have different strengths and weaknesses. There is no doubt that Kittel is the fastest – he has proved that on numerous occasions, most recently at the Giro d’Italia. However, Greipel has the best lead-out train that has been gathered for years and this could be a massive advantage for the in-form Lotto Soudal captain who has been on a roll since he won his first Giro stage.

 

The finale will be a big battle between the two Belgian trains but it will be hard for Etixx to match Lotto. For several years, the train Hansen-Sieberg-Roelandts-Henderson-Greipel was the best in the world. Last year Roelandts skipped the Tour and Jens Debusschere stepped into his role as the third last rider in the train. This year the old train is back together but Debusschere is still here. This means that the train is better than ever. Sieberg who usually takes off under the flamme rouge, can now start a bit earlier and then it will be up to Roelandts and Debusschere to maintain a high speed and keep Henderson and Greipel on the front. That’s a formidable combination and it will be hard for anyone to match.

 

On paper, the Etixx-QuickStep train is strong but it has one big disadvantage: the three key riders have barely raced together. At the start of the year, it was the plan that Fabio Sabatini, Maximilano Richeze and Marcel Kittel should have almost identical schedules but things had to change already in January when Richeze crashed hard at the Tour de San Luis. The Argentinean was expected to be the final lead-out man for Kittel like he was for Modolo at Lampre-Merida but instead Sabatini has taken over that role. Those two riders worked excellently together at the Giro and this means that the Italian will now keep the role as the final link in the chain. Richeze will be the third last rider in the train as he has only done one race with Kittel all year as he helped the German win Scheldeprijs in April.

 

Tony Martin will have the job of bringing those three riders into position. The German has lots of power but he doesn’t have the speed of riders like Sieberg, Roelandts and Debusschere. It will be almost impossible for Etixx-QuickStep to dominate the finale and they will probably have to latch onto the back of the Lotto Soudal train. That won’t be easy as it’s the most coveted place in the peloton and everybody probably wants to grab Greipel’s wheel in the finale. Kittel is not bad at fighting for position but it won’t be easy to push Peter Sagan off the wheel that the Slovakian wants.

 

This sets the scene for an interesting battle between the best train and the fastest sprinter but Kittel must be the favourite. The German has been back to his best all year and he is usually very hard to beat at the start of a grand tour. His dominance wanes later in the race when fatigue starts to set in but when everybody is fresh, he is in a class of his own. His top speed is impressive and the way he crushed the opposition in the first Giro stages was just another confirmation of the fact that he is a level above the rest.

 

Furthermore, a flat power sprints suits Kittel better than anyone else and even though Etixx-QuickStep are not as strong as Lotto Soudal, they should be strong enough to bring him into a good position. If he is not too far back or boxed in when the sprint is launched, it will all come down to pure speed and then Kittel will be impossible to beat.

 

Much has been said about his defeat at the German Championships. However, that was a very strange sprint without any lead-outs and Kittel was boxed in when Greipel launched his sprint. No comparisons can be made with the first Tour sprint. It is not a disaster that he failed to win at the Ster ZLM Toer too as he opted for safety in the technical and stressful finale of the Dutch race. This finale is much better for Kittel who is our stage winner pick.

 

The second fastest rider in the bunch is André Greipel. The German won four stages at last year’s Tour and added another three to his growing palmares at the Giro. For this race, he is even in a better position as he has a much stronger train and he has again proved that only Kittel has the speed to beat him.

 

However, in this kind of finish, a lead-out will be less important than it is in a more technical finale. Here it will be more about speed and even Greipel has to admit that he can’t match Kittel when it comes to a real sprint. To beat his compatriot, he has to start from a better position but luckily he has the means to do so. Greipel will probably get the best lead-out and then it will all come down to where Kittel is at the start of the sprint.

 

The only rider with the speed to match the two Germans, is Mark Cavendish. The Brit may not have won as much as he has done in the past but don’t be fooled by the results. Cavendish has been riding a lot on the track and so he hasn’t done much racing. However, when he has, he has shown that he still has an impressive top speed. He was centimetres from beating Kittel at Scheldeprijs and at the Tour of California he made Kristoff and Sagan look like junior riders in the sprint on the final stage.

 

Cavendish goes into this race with a bit of uncertainty as he has had a different preparation. He doesn’t know how that will affect his sprinting and we remain to see what impact it will have. His lead-out train is not as strong as Etixx and Lotto and Dimension Data will have to work behind the two big Belgian teams. Luckily he can count on Mark Renshaw to drop him off on either Kittel’s and Greipel’s wheel and this year he has proved that if he can start the sprint from a decent position, he still has the speed to challenge the Germans.

 

The third strong train in this year’s race is LottoNL-Jumbo. An impressive first WorldTour season has allowed Dylan Groenewegen to get an almost full team at his disposal for his Tour de France debut. The team has worked a lot on its train and they have been highly successful. They did very well at the Tour de Yorkshire and most recently they proved that they can match the big teams at the Ster ZLM Toer. In that race, they delivered Groenewegen to victory in stage 2 and he finished second in the final stage even though the team gave priority to the protection of Vanmarcke’s overall lead.

 

LottoNL-Jumbo may not have the firepower to match Lotto Soudal but they can definitely challenge Etixx-QuickStep. Groenewegen is not far off the mark when it comes to pure speed and his confidence and form are great. Unfortunately, he had to skip the team presentation due to stomach problems but his team is not worried. He was back on the bike for some sprint training on Friday and if the illness hasn’t taken too much out of him, he should be up there to fight with the best.

 

Last year the Katusha train was the best. This year they are even stronger as Michael Mørkøv has been added to the trio of Marco Haller, Jacopo Guarnieri and Alexander Kristoff. They did pretty well at the start of the year but for some reason they haven’t been as strong recently. They didn’t excel in California and they were not strong at the Dauphiné either.

 

For some reason, the team has even made a late change to their plan. Mørkøv and Guarnieri will swap positions and the Dane will now be the final rider to lead Kristoff out. That’s a bit of a mystery as Guarnieri has proved to be one of the best lead-out men in the world and we doubt that Mørkøv has the speed to match the best trains. Unlike last year, Kristoff will probably have to come from behind and that will be hard in a flat finale. He doesn’t have the top speed of the likes of Greipel and Kittel. On the other hand, he is one of the most consistent sprinters as he positions himself very well. Furthermore, he benefits from the windy conditions which will make the race much harder. If the peloton is split to pieces, Kristoff has the power to be up there and at the end of a race of attrition, he is usually very hard to beat.

 

Peter Sagan won’t win a big bunch sprint as he doesn’t have the speed of Kittel and Greipel. He will probably use his usual tactic which is to ride safely to finish between second and fifth and score as many points for the green jersey as possible. He is a master in positioning and he usually gets the wheel that he wants. This year he even has a few more riders at his disposal and Tinkoff will have more of an eye on their Slovakian world champion than they had in the first stages last year. However, his only real chance to win the stage comes if the race splits to pieces. In that case, there is no doubt that he will be in the first group – we can’t remember him missing any split in windy stages – and if he doesn’t have to work for Contador, he could very well be one of the fastest survivors.

 

Bryan Coquard has had a fantastic season and he has stepped up his level massively. In the past, he always struggled in the fight for position but nowadays he rarely misses out. Adrien Petit has done a great job as a lead-out man and in general the Direct Energie train has become a lot stronger. However, this is not really a Coquard stage. He likes uphill sprints and this one is a bit too much about speed. Furthermore, Direct Energie don’t have the best team for the windy conditions and he is a likely loser if the peloton splits to pieces. On the other hand, his form is outstanding and his confidence is great so if he is there in the finale with his key lead-out riders of Petit, Angelo Tulik and Yohann Gene, he should be up there.

 

We are very curious to see what Daniel McLay can do. The Brit has proved to have an impressive turn of speed. His sprint at the GP de Denain became hugely popular on social media as it was one of the greatest sprints all year. Furthermore, he has improved his positioning a lot and he has been pretty consistent which was usual a weakness in the past. However, he doesn’t have a real lead-out train and these sprints are extremely hectic. He could also very well get dropped in the crosswind. He needs a bit of luck in the finale but he has the speed to be up there with the best.

 

Sam Bennett is also one of the fastest riders in the peloton but the Irishman doesn’t have much of his lead-out train at his disposal. In fact, only Shane Archbold has been selected and that’s a big disadvantage. For some reason, Bennett always loses his teammates in the finale and so he is very inconsistent. That won’t be made any easier at this level and with a much weaker team at his disposal. Like McLay he needs some luck to prove his speed.

 

Edward Theuns is making a surprise grand tour debut at the Tour. He is not a pure sprinter but his second place at last year’s Scheldeprijs proves that he can mix it up in the real power sprints. He is good at positioning which makes him very consistent and he has Fabian Cancellara and Jasper Stuyven for the lead-out. He is very likely to finish in the top 10 and his chances will become even better if the race becomes tough. As a classics rider, he likes hard conditions and Trek have a solid classics team to make the selection.

 

The list of sprinters also includes John Degenkolb, Michael Matthews, Christophe Laporte, Sondre Holst Enger, Samuel Dumoulin, Ramunas Navardauskas and Davide Cimolai but they are all very unlikely to win the stage.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: André Greipel, Mark Cavendish

Outsiders: Dylan Groenewegen, Alexander Kristoff, Peter Sagan

Jokers: Bryan Coquard, Daniel McLay, Sam Bennett, Edward Theuns