A hugely disappointing final mountain stage all but confirmed Chris Froome’s third overall victory and for him the final 113km of the race are just about survival. However, things are completely different for the fast finishers who have suffered through the Alps to get the chance to win on the most prestigious venue for a sprinter: the famous Champs-Élysées in Paris.

 

The course

This year’s course may include a few novelties but there is nothing new on the final day of the race. Three years ago it was rumoured that ASO were planning to end the race on the top of Alpe d’Huez but those ideas were never turned into reality. As usual, the race will come to an end with a largely ceremonial stage to Paris where the sprinters will get the chance to battle it out on the Champs-Élysées in the most prestigious stage for a fast finisher.

 

Tomorrow morning the riders will travel from the Alps to the northern suburbs of Paris for the final day of racing that follows a very traditional format. The stage usually starts a bit south of the capital and then makes a small loop in the area – often with one or two small categorized climbs to finalize the battle for the KOM jersey – before the riders head towards the city centre. Here they do a number of laps of the famous circuit on the Champs-Élysées, very often ending with a big bunch sprint.

 

This year’s stage starts in Chantilly north of Paris and of course the distance is rather short, even shorter than usual. At just 113km, the route makes a small loop in an easterly direction before it turns around and heads south towards the city centre. In the suburbs, they will reach the top of the final categorized climb of the race, the category 4 Cote de l’Hermitage (900m, 7%) after 32.5km of racing. Otherwise the terrain is almost completely flat as the riders continue towards the centre of Paris.

 

In this year’s unusually short stage, the riders will reach the finishing city circuit after just 57km of racing and 1.5km further up the road, they will cross the line for the first time. The stage ends with 9 laps of the 6.85km circuit that brings them up and down the famous avenue which is one lap less than last year. One of the novelties for the 2013 edition that was introduced to mark the 100thedition, was the fact that the riders went all the way around the Arc de Triomphe instead of doing a 180-degree turn in front of it. This adjustment to the circuit was maintained in 2014 and 2015 and will again be in place in 2016 but the stage won’t finish late in the evening as it did three years ago. It will still finish later than usual though as the arrival is scheduled around 19.15 local time, just like in the past two years.

 

The Champs-Elysées is cobbled and not flat as it ramps slightly upwards when one goes through the finish. The intermediate sprint will be contested at the highest point of the avenue on the third lap when 39.5km still remain. The final sprint is well-known by all the riders and pretty technical as there are two 90-degree turns just before the flamme rouge. Inside the final kilometre, two sweeping turns lead onto the short 400m finishing straight that is slightly uphill on a 9m wide road.

 

Last year André Greipel confirmed his status by taking his fourth stage win ahead of Bryan Coquard. In 2014, Marcel Kittel took his second consecutive win on the famous avenue when he narrowly held off Alexander Kristoff in a close sprint. One year earlier he had broken Mark Cavendish’s winning streak in a fantastic battle against the Brit and André Greipel. Before then, Cavendish won the stage four years in a row from 2009 to 2012. Before the Brit started to dominate the stage, Gert Steegmans, Daniele Bennati and Thor Hushovd won bunch sprints while the sprinters were last foiled in 2005 when Alexandre Vinokourov took a hugely surprising victory with a late attack.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Paris is not exactly known for its good weather and last year the final times were actually taken at the first passage of the line as rain was forecasted for the finale. This year the race will end in the most beautiful setting as Sunday will be sunny with a temperature of 28 degrees by the time the stage ends in the early evening.

 

There will be a light wind from a westerly direction which means that the riders will have a crosswind or a cross-headwind or most of the opening section until they turn into a tailwind when they approach the city centre. On the circuit, there will be either a tail- or a headwind and it will be a headwind sprint.

 

The favourites

That was a bit of an anticlimax. Everybody was looking forward to a big battle for the final podium spots but none of the contenders even tried. Fabio Aru and Richie Porte were most likely to make a move but when the Italian was dropped, it became evident that nothing was going to happen. Porte has clearly lost some form in the last few days and he seemed to have given up at the end of yesterday’s stage. Adam Yates was clearly no longer strong enough to attack and Nairo Quintana and Romain Bardet were satisfied with what they had. Hence, the stage became one of the least exciting of the mountain stages in this yea’rs Tour.

 

Actually, it’s no big surprise. Big dramas like the one we had last year or in the Giro are actually pretty rare. The final mountain stage often ends a bit of a disappointment as everybody is so tired that it’s often just a matter of survival. Many will remember the 2014 Giro stage to Monte Zoncolan and the Ventoux stage in the 2009 Tour as prime examples of how no one really moves in the final big showdown.

 

At the same time, Geraint Thomas really rode fast up that climb. Everybody was simply at the limit and only Joaquim Rodriguez had something left to make an attack. The fact that he managed to gain so much time speaks volumes about how strong he has been in the Alps. He had a hunger knock in the first stage but his time trial and final two performances were excellent. He must rue his poor showing in the Alps as he was definitely strong enough to be on the podium in this race. If the race had been a few days longer, he would be a lot closer but at least he can console himself with the fact that he has marked himself out as one of the big favourites for Clasica San Sebastian and the Olympics.

 

For Chris Froome, there were no issues. It was only a question of staying safe and he again reached the finish without going all out in an attack. His final victory is a dominant one but it is hard not to be left with the impression that he has never reached Paris in such a comfortable manner. Actually, it seems that he never went all out in an attack in the mountains and he probably only went 100% in the time trials and the crosswinds. He was evidently a much fresher in the final part of the race than he has been in the past and he delivered a very calculated effort. It speaks volumes about his superiority that he can win the hardest race in the world with such a measured effort, keeping an eye on both the Olympics and the Vuelta. He leaves France in an excellent position to challenge for the top positions in both of those events.

 

Richie Porte may only have finished fifth overall but the Australian can be pleased that he has emerged as a grand tour contender. Until now, there have always been questions about his ability to avoid a bad day but this year he was only set back by bad luck. Few can argue against the assessment that he was the second strongest rider in the race and this must have boosted his confidence hugely for next year’s Tour. If he had been closer in the GC, he could have pushed Froome a lot more and it doesn’t seem completely out of the world that he can realistically go for the top spot.

 

The other big winners are of course Romain Bardet who again proves that he has a remarkable recovery in the third week, and Adam Yates who has confirmed that he is a grand tour winner in the making. Louis Meintjes confirmed what he already showed in the Vuelta. He will never be a man for the shorter stage races but his excellent diesel engine makes him a real grand tour rider. Finally, you can only applaud the ever-consistent Alejandro Valverde for finishing sixth on the back of a third place in the Giro after a race where he did everything that Quintana asked for.

 

The riders now just need to survive one stage before they can step onto the podium. One of the exciting things about bike-racing is its unpredictability but one race is celebrated and famous for its predictable outcome. While the Tour de France is loaded with surprises and unexpected outcomes, everybody knows what will happen on the final day which is a day of celebration and paying tribute to the brave riders that have completed the hardest race of the world.

 

There will be no surprises in the early part of the race which takes place in a festive and relaxed atmosphere. In the 15km neutral zone and in the long opening run through the Parisian suburbs, there will be plenty of time to chat to the colleagues, congratulate each other, taking the traditional photos of the top 3 riders and the distinctive jersey holders and even enjoy a glass of champagne. Chris Froome will be riding prominently near the front and his rivals will move up to congratulate him with the win and pay tribute to his great exploits. All the competitions have been decided so there will be plenty of room to celebrate everyone. The early category 4 climb will probably be the scene of some action as some of the KOM contenders usually take the chance to show themselves in a non-serious sprint. Expect Thomas De Gendt to show himself here.

 

Last year the format of the stage slightly changed and it has been maintained for this year’s editio. The opening, ceremonial part has been shorted significantly and there will be more laps in the finale. This means that there will less relaxed racing and more fast racing at the end.

 

When the riders get closer to Paris, things will gradually get more serious and it is traditionally the job of the race leader’s team to pick up the pace and make sure that things don’t get too lazy. Sky will patrol the front and as they get closer to the city centre, things will get more serious and the speed a lot faster.

 

By the time, they hit the Champs-Elysees for the first time, the pace will be fully up to racing standards and now the riders will have turned their race faces on to provide the many spectators with a very fast criterium-like race in the French capital. Very often, one of the veterans who is doing is last Tour, has been allowed to lead the peloton across the line for the first time and maybe we will see Joaquim Rodriguez come to the fore here.

 

From there, the race will be a very fast affair and it won’t take much time to do the final 54.5km of the race. Even though they all know that their efforts are likely to be in vain, many riders are keen to go on the attack on the famous avenue and the racing is usually pretty aggressive.

 

Usually, a break goes clear in one of the first two laps but the sprint teams always make sure that it is not too big. They rarely gain much more than 30 seconds of advantage as the race is so short that no one dares to allow a few fresh legs to get too much leeway. Hence, we can expect to see Etixx-QuickStep, Lotto Soudal, Katusha and maybe Direct Energie to hit the front as soon as the break takes off and make sure that the break doesn’t get too far ahead.

 

In the past, Lotto Soudal have tried to send a rider to attack to avoid having to do any work but that is unlikely to happen in tomorrow’s stage. Etixx-QuickStep don’t have Dimension Data to assist in the chase so they will keep a close eye on the Lotto riders.

 

A few factors characterize the sprint on the Champs-Elysees that are well-known for most of the sprinters. First of all, it comes at the end of three weeks of hard racing which means that fatigue plays a big role and the hierarchy may not be the same as it was at the start of the race. On the other hand, the stage is so short and easy that the sprinters are usually all pretty fresh by the time they launch their sprint.

 

Secondly, there is a turn pretty close to the finish which means that lead-out and positioning are crucial and you can win a lot by being the first sprinter through the final turn. On the other hand, the avenue is very wide which means that it is hard to get boxed in and there is plenty of room to move up in the finale, meaning that top speed counts for a lot. Finally, the finishing straight is slightly uphill which suits some sprinters more than others.

 

Apart from Mark Cavendish who deliberately left the race, and Edward Theuns who crashed out last weekend, all the sprinters have arrived safely to Paris so the scene is set for a great battle. However, some have suffered more than others. Marcel Kittel and André Greipel have clearly had a hard time in the last few days while Alexander Kristoff and Bryan Coquard have been a lot fresher. Especially, Kristoff’s form has been on the rise so the hierarchy has definitely changed.

 

Nonetheless, we will put Marcel Kittel on top of our list of favourites. The German has contested the sprint in Paris twice and he has won on both occasions. However, his wins haven’t been as dominant as they have been in the first week and it is evident that he often suffers more than his rivals at this point in the race.

 

It seems to be the same this year. While he looked strong in the Pyrenees, Kittel has been one of the first to get dropped in the Alps and he was even distanced far from the finish on the stage to Bern. Luckily, he can console himself with the fact that Greipel seems to be equally tired and he is the only rider that can challenge Kittel when it comes to pure speed.

 

When we still regard Kittel as the favourite, it’s due to the nature of the final sprint. It’s a wide road where speed means a lot and no one can deny that Kittel is the fastest rider in the world. When he hasn’t won more stages in this year’s race, it has been due to poor timing and lead-outs which has forced him to hit out too early. Mark Cavendish has exploited that perfectly but the Brit is no longer here. Even though it’s a headwind sprint, it will be hard his rivals to come around him even if he goes from afar.

 

Secondly, Kittel is still supported by one of the best trains. On paper, Lotto Soudal are stronger but Greipel’s team hasn’t timed things well. That hasn’t been the case for Etixx either but they have clearly improved. Furthermore, Fabio Sabatini and Maximilano Richeze seem to be a lot fresher than Greipel’s lead-out guys who have suffered in the last few stages. They should make sure that Kittel is in a good position for a sprint that is less hectic due to the wide roads. If he can just be in a reasonable position, Kittel should use his speed to win this sprint.

 

The only rider who can usually challenge Kittel in this kind of sprint is André Greipel. However, the German hasn’t had much success in this race and he has really been suffering in the last few stages. Furthermore, Greipel seems to tire quite a bit in the third week and until he won the stage last year, he has never really had much success in Paris.

 

However, the Lotto Soudal train is intact and on paper it is the best train here. That’s a massive advantage for Greipel and if they can finally get their timing right, Greipel should get the perfect lead-out. If that’s the case, Kittel has to be on top of his game to come around and that’s probably not the case at this point of the Tour.

 

While Kittel and Greipel fade in the final part of a grand tour, Alexander Kristoff just gets stronger and stronger. Thing’s didn’t really work out for him last year but this year he is close to the level he had in 2014. Back then he was flying in the third week and he was agonizingly close to beating Kittel in this stage.

 

Kristoff has a few aces up his sleeve. First of all, the slightly uphill sprint on cobbles suits him down to the ground. Secondly, he is clearly fresher than most of his rivals. Finally, his lead-put men Jacopo Guarnieri and Marco Haller have really done well in the last few stages and it’s not impossible that Guarnieri will lead Kristoff and the rest of the peloton through the final turn. At the moment, Kristoff should then be strong enough to keep his rivals at bay.

 

The sprint suits John Degenkolb down to the ground. The German likes this kind of slightly uphill power sprint and his performances in the last two sprints prove that he is getting closer to his best level. He should be even stronger by now and his rivals are even more tired too. In the first sprints, he failed to stay with his teammates which has often been a problem for him but as he gets stronger, it’s easier for him to get into position. On paper, Albert Timmer and Ramon Sinkeldam should be able to do a good lead-out for him and if he is in a good position, he may be fast enough to win this power sprint.

 

Last year Bryan Coquard finished second in this stage. Usually such a short sprint stage doesn’t suit him but the slightly uphill finish and the fact that it comes so late in the race suit the Frenchman well. He was disappointing in Bern but apart from that he has been riding really well recently and he was even in the break in this stage. He would have preferred a steeper uphill finish but last year he proved that it’s not impossible for him to win. As always, the positioning will be a challenge as the loss of Angelo Tulik means that his train is far less strong than the best.

 

Usually, Peter Sagan is not fast enough to be competitive in these fast sprints and he has not had much luck in Paris in the last two years. However, he was still second in 2012 and fourth in 2013 so he has been up there. That’s due to the fact that the finishing straight is uphill and that Sagan is much fresher than his rivals at this last point of the race. The freshness is again a huge asset as is Sagan’s positioning. That makes him very consistent but it will be very hard for him to win.

 

Dylan Groenewegen has defied all expectations by making it to Paris in his grand tour debut. However, he is very tired and he admitted that he had very little power when he last sprinted in stage 14. Nonetheless, he is still a very strong contender. This shorter stage suits him really well as does the slightly uphill finish. Furthermore, he claims to have felt a lot better in the last few days and he has one of the best trains in the race. He is probably not fresh enough to win but if LottoNL-Jumbo can finally do a good lead-out, he should be up there.

 

Jasper Stuyven has been working for Edward Theuns and Bauke Mollema so he hasn’t had many chances to sprint. However, he will definitely take his chance here. Usually, he doesn’t have the speed for this kind of finish but at this point in a grand tour, he has a much better chance. He is still very strong and even survived in the break in today’s stage longer than many climbers. If he hasn’t spent too much energy, he should find the uphill sprint to his liking.

 

Daniel McLay proved his speed when he finished third in stage 6. It’s pretty impressive that he has made it this far as he has clearly suffered in the mountains. Usually, this kind of short sprint stage is very good for him but he is probably too fatigued to be really competitive. His team is not very strong either. On the other hand, he has one of the fastest top speeds here so if he can get into a good position, nothing is impossible.

 

Sondre Holst Enger is not a pure sprinter but he has really survived his first grand tour well. He finished third in the very hard stage to Bern and he has been dropped very late in the mountains. His freshness means a lot and he has proved that he positions himself really well. Furthermore, the IAM team seems to have one of the strongest and freshest teams to support him.

 

Finally, we will point to Sam Bennett. The Irishman crashed in stage 1 and so has only contested one sprint since then. Back then, he was still not competitive but he has really had a remarkable recovery. He has been climbing really well and doesn’t seem to be too tired. He is a very fast rider for this kind of finish but the problem will be his positioning. That has always been a challenge for him and without Shane Archbold for the lead-out, he won’t have much support.

 

Samuel Dumoulin, Ramunas Navardauskas, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Davide Cimolai, Christophe Laporte and Michael Matthews will probably also mix it up in the sprint but they are unlikely to win.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: André Greipel, Alexander Kristoff

Outsiders: John Degenkolb, Bryan Coquard, Peter Sagan

Jokers: Dylan Groenewegen, Jasper Stuyven, Sondre Holst Enger, Dan McLay, Sam Bennett