A smart sprint by Mark Cavendish allowed the Brit to achieve his life-long dream of taking the yellow jersey – the only cycling jersey that was still a realistic, unachieved objective – but he will have to enjoy his day in the coveted tunic maximally. The second stage offers the first hilly finale where narrow roads, wind and short, steep climbs should see the classics riders and puncheurs come to the fore.

 

The course

When the sprinters got a chance to wear yellow after the first stage in 2013 and 2014, it was always going to be a short-lived affair. In both editions, ASO had designed a tough, hilly stage already on the second day and so Marcel Kittel only got one day in the maillot jaune on both occasions. Apparently, race director Christian Prudhomme likes that formula so there will no second chance to strike back for the sprinters who missed out in the first stage. Like in the past two editions, the second stage will leave no room for the fastest guys and instead the puncheurs and classics riders look forward to one of their rare chances in this year’s edition of the Tour.

 

The second stage will bring the riders over 183km from Saint-Lo to Cherbourg-en-Cotentin and like stage 1, it has the potential to be a very nervous and stressful affair. For the second day in a row, the riders will follow the coastal road for most of the time and this could potential wreak havoc on the field if the conditions are right. From the start in Saint-Lo, the riders will briefly head south to go up the category 4 climbs of Cote de Tarigny-les-Villes (1.4km, 5.7%) and Cote de Montabot (1.9km, 5%) after 10km and 29.5km of racing respectively. Then they will turn around and head in a northwesterly direction towards the coast. Along the way, they will tackle the category 4 Cote de Montpinchon (1.2km, 5.9%) at the 52km mark before they get to the sea at the feed zone after 96.5km of racing.

 

After a lumpy start, the terrain gets significantly flatter as the riders approach the coast and there won’t be much climbing on the coastal road. Here the riders will contest the intermediate sprint at the 107.5km mark, an almost completely flat one with just a single turn 1200m from the line.

 

After around 140km, the riders will leave the coast and traverse the inland which makes the terrain significantly hillier. There are a few small climbs before the riders will again reach the coast with around 20km to go. From there, they will follow the coastal road to Cherbourg-en-Cotentin where they will go up the small, uncategorized climb of Cote d’Octeville (1.3km, 4.6%) whose top is located with 7.5km to go. From there, a short descent leads to the final challenge, the uphill finish on the category 3 climb of Cote de la Glacerie. It averages 6.5% over 1.9km and includes 500m at an average of 10.5% and with a maximum of 15% just 500m from the top. The KOM sprint comes with 1.5km to go and then a short 500m flat section leads to the final 700m which are uphill at 5.7%. It’s a technical finale too as there are numerous turns inside the final 10km. On the climb, there are several winding turns and a left-hand turn in a roundabout. After the top, there are two turns in quick succession but from there, it is a 5.5m wide road that only bends slightly to the right.

 

Although the finale of this year's stage has its own special flavour, the Tour paid quite a few visits to Cherbourg in the 1920s, when the organisers tried to follow the contours of the country. Some of these stages went down in history, like in 1923, when rookie Ottavio Bottechia launched an instinctive solo attack two kilometres from the finish of stage 2 to steal the win from under the favourites' nose. The cheeky rider went on to become the first Italian winner of the Tour and again won the race in 1925. In 1924, the stage from Cherbourg to Brest was marred by controversy shortly after the start: brothers Henri and Francis Pélissier, as well as Maurice Ville, withdrew 76km into the stage, furious at the organisers who supposedly forbade them from putting on several jerseys as protection against the cold. When journalist and writer Albert Londres joined them at the Café de la gare in Coutances, they vented their anger sprinkled with a few drops of chicanery. The resulting piece, published in Le Petit Parisien under the headline Les forçats de la route ("The Convicts of the Road"), became famous.

 

Cherbourg hasn’t hosted a stage for more than a decade.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Despite a brief attempt to split things at the midpoint, the wind turned out not to be strong enough to split things in the first stage. However, there will be more nervous riding on stage 2 as more bad weather is forecasted.

 

Today the riders had dry conditions but tomorrow there will be a 75% chance of rain for the first half of the stage. In the final, it may stay dry as the risk drops to less than 50% and the sun may even come out. The maximum temperature will be 18 degrees.

 

There will be slightly less wind as a moderate breeze will be blowing from a westerly direction. This means that the riders will mainly have a cross-headwind or a crosswind for most of the day until they leave the coast in the finale. Then it will mainly be a tailwind or a crosswind for the final part of the stage. It will be a crosswind for most of the final 10km.

 

The favourites

What a great sprint by Mark Cavendish! He didn’t have the best train but he stayed calm and made use of all of his experience to jump between the right wheels in the finale. Reinardt van Rensburg, Edvald Boasson Hagen and Mark Renshaw did a good job to keep him up there and close to the Lotto Soudal train and then the Brit finished it off in outstanding manner.

 

As expected, the Belgian train turned out to be clearly the strongest and they seemed to be in the perfect position when Jurgen Roelandts, Jens Debusschere, Greg Henderson and André Greipel hit the front just before the flamme rouge. Henderson proved his class and did the perfect lead-out but like so often before, Greipel had lost contact in the hectic battle for position. Instead, he had Cavendish on his wheel and he was attentive to jump onto Peter Sagan when the world champion launched from afar. In that way, he stayed out of the wind and as Marcel Kittel had to come from far back, the big German was unprotected and as he started to fade, Cavendish proved that he still has the speed to match the best.

 

There is little doubt that Kittel is the fastest but it is not the first time that Cavendish has shown that he is close. In Scheldeprijs, Kittel just beat him by a few centimetres and in the final stage of the Tour of California, he made Alexander Kristoff and Peter Sagan look like junior riders. He may no longer be the fastest but he is still in the top 3 and with his experience, he can still win the biggest races.

 

Etixx-QuickStep messed up the lead-out. Their train was strong but the wind was coming from the left. It was a big mistake by them to stay in that side of the road as it cost too much energy and Fabio Sabatini and Maximilano Richeze simply exploded too early. That forced Kittel to do a very long sprint and even if he did extremely well, it was not enough to win.

 

There will be no second chance for Kittel as stage 2 is way too hard for the sprinters and it will only be one day in yellow for Cavendish. However, the fight for yellow is still not over for Etixx-QuickStep as Julian Alaphilippe, Daniel Martin and Petr Vakoc can all mix it up with the puncheurs in the tough finale on Sunday. In general, tomorrow’s stage is a huge goal for lots of classics riders who don’t have many opportunities in a race that is geared towards climbers and sprinters.

 

Furthermore, the yellow jersey will be up for grabs and it has been a common expectation that a stage win will be enough to take the race lead. However, things became a bit more complicated when Sagan finished third in today’s stage. If it comes down to the expected uphill sprint, the Slovakian will take yellow with a second place as he will have the lowest sum of stage placings (Kittel and Cavendish will be nowhere to be seen in the finale).

 

To get the chance to sprint for the win, they need to survive what will be another very stressful stage. Today the wind was strong but the roads were never really exposed. It only briefly split at the midpoint but it soon became apparent that nothing would really happen. Tomorrow the wind will be less strong but everything will depend on how exposed the roads are. There will be crosswind for a big part of the stage and this could make things dangerous. On the other hand, it will be a bit more of a cross-headwind and this makes it unlikely that things will split.

 

Today Paul Voss did a great job to take the mountains jersey  but to defend it, he has to be in the break – unless he can score points in the climb in the finale. There are three early climbs so if one rider can will all of those KOM sprints, he will pass the German in the fight for the polka-dot jersey. This will be the only real incentive to go on the attack as everybody knows that a break has no chance at this early point in the race so we expect the group to get clear right from the gun. Voss could very well be there again as could local rider Anthony Delaplace. Cofidis, IAM, Direct Energie and Lampre-Merida may also show themselves in the early break.

 

When the break has gone clear, it is less evident who’s going to control the race. Today Etixx-QuickStep and Lotto Soudal were always going to take the responsibility but tomorrow they are likely to allow it to others to take control. However, it’s a very big thing for Dimension Data to lead the race and even though Cavendish won’ defend the jersey, they will do their utmost to honour their position. As Edvald Boasson Hagen is also one of the favourites, we can expect the African team to spend a lot of time on the front with riders like Bernhard Eisel, Mark Renshaw, Natnael Berhane and Daniel Teklehaimanot.

 

Like today it will be a very nervous stage so all the big teams will be riding attentively near the front. As said, we don’t expect the peloton to split but it’s not impossible that one or more teams will give it a try. This will make for another stressful day with the risk of big crashes and it will make sure that the gap automatically comes down. Hence, Dimension Data may not need much help but if the break turns out to be hard to catch, we should see Tinkoff come to the fore. Unlike last year when it was all about Contador, they have two leaders for his race and Sagan has even had Oscar Gatto selected for the role of lead-out man. This is his biggest chance to win a stage and take the yellow jersey so it makes no sense if the Russian team don’t lend a hand to the chase. Etixx-QuickStep, BMC and Orica-GreenEDGE also have their eyes on this stage so they should be ready to step in if the situation becomes dangerous.

 

In the end, it should all come down to an uphill sprint but it won’t be all about puncheur skills. The finale is very technical and the roads are narrow and winding. It will be just as important to stay in a good position and this will make things very dangerous. There is a big risk that there will be splits in the finale so we will probably see Chris Froome sprint into the top 10 with usual attentiveness. All the GC riders want to be up there so like today there is a big risk of crashes. To be up there in the finale, you need a bit of luck and we could very well see one or more GC riders be caught in or behind a tumble.

 

There is another risk for riders that want a sprint. These finales are very hard and there won’t be many domestiques left when we get to the top of the category 3 climb. If there’s a bit of hesitation in the flat 500m, a strong rider can make a solo attack here and there is no guarantee that any team will be strong enough to bring it back. That’s how Zdenek Stybar won in Le Havre last year so look out for Tom Dumoulin’s expected bid for yellow in this part.

 

One rider who will benefit from the stressful conditions is Peter Sagan. The Slovakian is a master in positioning, he almost never crashes and he has great technical skills for a technical finale. He may not have the best team to lead him out but that’s not necessary. He proved his immense class in today’s stage where he latched onto the most coveted wheel, Kittel’s, where he stayed until the finale. While everybody else will be struggling to find a good position, Sagan is almost a guarantee. Furthermore, he has become a lot calmer and now handles these stressful finales a lot better.

 

Sagan is in great form. Ever since his remarkable turnaround at last year’s Tour of California, he has been back at the level he had a start of his career. Today he did a fantastic sprint a he went from afar and still managed to take third despite spending a lot of time in the wind. In general, he has been sprinting better than ever in 2016 and he seems to be at an all-time high when it comes to speed. This kind of uphill finish that is not too steep, suits him down to the ground and we doubt that anyone will be able to beat him in a direct battle.

 

The big challenge will be to keep things together for a sprint. However, Gatto showed good form at the Italian Championships so he should be there. Roman Kreuziger is also good in stages like this and will be ready to lend a hand. If they can keep things together, Sagan should win the sprint so he is our favourite to get the victory.

 

His biggest rival could very well be Julian Alaphilippe. The Frenchman is one of the biggest talents as he can do almost everything on a bike. One of his greatest assets is his uphill sprint which is one of the best in the world. Impressively, he can both be there on the very steep gradients at Fleche Wallonne and on easier slopes like the one he will face on Sunday. In June, he did a remarkable uphill sprint at the Criterium du Dauphiné and if he had been in a better position, he would easily have beaten Boasson Hagen in that stage.

 

In fact, the positioning seems to be his weak point. He has the speed to win this uphill sprint but his Etixx-QuickStep team may not be strong enough to give him much support. Petr Vakoc will be crucial and an in-form Maximilano Richeze could also be up there. Of course Daniel Martin will be there too but he will do his own race as he is an outsider himself and has to avoid any splits. If he can stay in a good position, Alaphilippe could very well get the best possible start to his Tour career.

 

Greg Van Avermaet was once known as an eternal runner-up but things have changed in the last few years. Now he has become a real winner and he excels in uphill sprints. Interestingly, he has beaten Sagan in similar finales on several occasions. He did so in Rodez at last year’s Tour where he probably did the sprint of his life and he also got the better of the world champion in uphill sprints at this year’s Tirreno and at the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. Furthermore, he is great at positioning himself and he has a strong team to support him. Damiano Caruso can do an excellent lead-out as can Brent Bookwalter. Van Avermaet can definitely beat Sagan again.

 

Dimension Data are on a roll and they would love to make it two in a row with Edvald Boasson Hagen. The Norwegian has been back at his best level for most of the year and he seems to have timed his condition to perfection. His attack in the finale of the Norwegian Championships was impressive and he likes an uphill sprint like this one. He beat Van Avermaet in a slightly harder finale at this year’s Tour of Oman and he can do so again here. He has Reinardt van Rensburg for the lead-out and knows how to get into position. Unfortunately, he was involved in the last crash in today’s stage and even though he only has a bit of road rash, it could have an impact on his performance.

 

On paper, the stage is great for Alejandro Valverde who is hard to beat in an uphill sprint like this. However, the Spaniard’s form is very uncertain. He is mainly here to prepare for the Olympics and he has only done the Spanish Championships since the Giro. His condition will build up during the race but Valverde is never bad. He was fourth in the road race and third in the time trial in the battle for the national jerseys so he has definitely maintained a decent level. He has done nothing to hide that he targets a stage win but everything will depend on the level of stress in the finale. He won’t take any unnecessary risks so if it gets too hectic he will probably back off.

 

As said, we expect Tom Dumoulin to attack in the finale. The Dutchman can become of only a handful of riders to win a stage and take the leader’s jersey in three consecutive grand tours and he has admitted that this is his goal in this race. His biggest chance to take yellow comes in the first week as he is not here for the GC in the long term. He is fast in this kind of uphill sprint but his best chance is probably to anticipate the favourites. If he attacks in the flat section, he will be very hard to bring back.

 

Like Dumoulin, Tony Gallopin has different options. He is strong in an uphill sprint but the likes of Sagan, Alaphilippe and Van Avermaet are faster. His best chance is to follow a Dumoulin move in the finale but he will be in doubt about how to play his cards. On the other hand, he proved at the Duaphiné that he is not afraid of attacking in stages that suit him well and he will be looking for opportunities in the finale.

 

One of the big question marks is how Orica-GreenEDGE will handle the stage. Both Simon Gerrans and Michael Matthews are made for a final like this and they have said that they will make a decision on the leadership in the morning. Unfortunately, Simon Gerrans has not been at his best this year and it seems that Father Age is starting to catch up with him. We doubt that he is fast enough to win so their only real chance to win is probably to go for Matthews who is one of the best in the world in a finish like this. Unfortunately, he crashed in today’s stage and even though he didn’t suffer any major injuries, it probably means that the team will work for Gerrans.

 

One of the big outsiders is Bryan Coquard. The Frenchman has climbed excellently all year and even finished fourth in the Amstel Gold Race. He specializes in uphill sprints but this finale could be a bit too tough for him. If the finish was flat or if it had just been about the final 700m, he would have been an obvious favourite but the steep part could take the sting out of his legs for the sprint.

 

Fabian Cancellara will also be ready to go on the attack in a finale that suits him pretty well. He is fast in the sprint too so like Gallopin and Cancellara he has more options. The question is whether his form is at its best. He didn’t impress at the Tour de Suisse and he rode pretty poorly in the road race at the Swiss Championships. On the other hand, you can never rule out Cancellara who took the yellow jersey 12 months ago when he was not at his best either.

 

LottoNL-Jumbo are mainly here for stage wins and this one could be good for Paul Martens and Sep Vanmarcke. The latter is probably their best option as he won a similar stage and the overall at the recent Ster ZLM Toer. As a classics specialist, he is a master in positioning and he has a fantastic kick on short climbs like these.

 

Finally, we will point to Arthur Vichot. The French champion has put months of illness behind him and has returned to his best level. He rode outstandingly at the French Championships and he likes an uphill sprint like this. Unfortunately, the positioning could become an issue and there are no guarantees that he will get freedom in a team that is fully focused on Thibaut Pinot.

 

If you are looking for more candidates, keep an eye on Sondre Holst Enger, Jan Bakelants, Samuel Dumoulin, Alexis Vuillermoz, Paul Martens, Jarlinson Pantano, Jasper Stuyven, Daniel Martin, Petr Vakoc, Alexey Lutsenko, Ramunas Navardauskas, Rui Costa, Armindo Fonseca and Florian Vachon.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Peter Sagan

Other winner candidates: Julian Alaphilippe, Greg Van Avermaet

Outsiders: Edvald Boasson Hagen, Alejandro Valverde, Tom Dumoulin, Michael Matthews

Jokers: Tony Gallopin, Simon Gerrans, Bryan Coquard, Fabian Cancellara, Sep Vanmarcke, Arthur