Peter Sagan again proved that he is back at completely different level after his travails in 2014 and the first part of 2015 and lived up to his status as the big favourite in a dramatic second stage. He now has a chance to wear yellow until stage 7 and will try to score more bonus seconds in the long, flat third stage where the big Germans Marcel Kittel and André Greipel are looking for revenge after the disappointing outcome of the first stage.

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The course

Stage 2 took the pure sprinters out of contention for the yellow jersey but the fast riders will get an immediate chance to strike back and sprint for another stage win on the third day. Stage 3 will be the second-longest stage of the Tour but only the distance will challenge the riders as there’s juzt a single categorized climb on the menu. The mountains arrive early in this year’s race so the sprinters have to make the most of their opportunities in the first week and they will be keen not to miss out on this.

 

At 223.5km, the stage from Granville to Angers is one of only a few stages with a length of more than 200km. It consists of a long southerly run as the riders start the traditional journey from the northern part of the country to the mountains in the south. The first part is a bit lumpy and includes the category 3 Cote de Villedieu-les-Poeles (1.5km, 4.4%) at the 25.5km mark. Then the terrain gets significantly flatter and the final 150km barely have even the smallest climbs.

 

The highlight will be the intermediate sprint in Bouillé-Ménard after 171km of racing. It’s pretty straightforward as it comes at the end of a long, straight road. The final kilometre is slightly uphill at 1.3%.

 

In the last part, the riders will head in a southeasterly direction to Angers where a technical finale awaits the riders. After two roundabouts, the riders will take a sharp turn with 3800m to go. There’s another turn 1800m from the finish and then a straight road leads the final 90-degree right-hand turn which comes just 300m from the line and leads onto the 7m wide finishing straight. A small descent leads to the flamme rouge and the final kilometre is uphill at 2.5%.

 

Angers is known from the Cirucit Cycliste Sarthe where it hosts a morning sprint stage and an afternoon time trial every year. In 2015, Bryan Coquard and Anton Vorobyev were the winners, in 2014 Anthony Roux and Adriano Malori came out on top, in 2013 Jonas Ahlstrand and Alex Dowsett were the best while Nacer Bouhanni and Luke Durbridge were the strongest in 2012. Michel Kreder and Durbridge had the upper hand in 2011 and Kreder and Daniele Bennati took the wins in 2010. Among the current professionals, Tiago Machado, Samuel Dumoulin and Sylvain Chavanel have also won stages in Angers.

 

The city last hosted a stage of the Tour de France in 2004 when Tom Boonen beat Stuart O’Grady and Erik Zabel in a bunch sprint.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders had their first taste of rain in today’s stage and many will be pleased to know that they will be back on dry roads on Monday. It’s forecasted to be a cloudy day but there will be no rain on the menu. Furthermore, it will be warmer as the maximum temperature at the finish will be 23 degrees.

 

There will barely be any wind at all as just a very light breeze will be blowing from a westerly direction in the first part of the stage and southerly direction in the finale. This means that a tailwind start will be followed by a long day with a crosswind which gradually becomes a cross-headwind. In the finale, it will be a cross-headwind for the final 5km until the riders will turn into a headwind on the short finishing straight.

 

The favourites

No one still knows what happened to Peter Sagan during the 2013 season when his level suddenly dropped dramatically. His 2014 season was very poor and he was nowhere near his former level in the spring of 2015. However, since the 2015 Tour of California he has been back on track and today he again looked like the rider who dominated these punchy finales at his Tour debut in 2012.

 

Sagan let the legs do the talking and proved that he is almost impossible to beat in a finale like this. However, he also showed how much he has matured. When he reacted to Joaquim Rodriguez’ (poor) acceleration, he found himself in the wind too early. Instead of launching from too far out, he wisely hesitated for a moment and then waited for Julian Alaphilippe to hit out. The Frenchman did an amazing uphill sprint like he did at the Dauphiné but he was no match to Sagan.

 

It’s a bit of a shame that Michael Matthews cracked in the final metres as it cost Alejandro Valverde the chance to sprint for the win. The Spaniard had to close a gap which took him out of contention but he proved that he hasn’t lost all his form since the Giro. One month ago he said that he would deliberately lose time in the first week but now he may have his eyes on a second yellow jersey. If stage 5 turns out to be too hard for Sagan, Valverde will be ready to strike!

 

However, the real hero of the day was Roman Kreuziger. The Czech took a massive turn on the front in the finale and if it hadn’t been for him, Jasper Stuyven would maybe have made it. Furthermore, he made sure that no one managed to attack in the finale and such late moves have cost Sagan numerous victories in similar races in the past. With Alberto Contador clearly suffering from his injuries, Kreuziger could turn out to be a valuable back-up plan for Tinkoff.

 

For Richie Porte, the race was a huge disaster. The Australian’s run of bad luck in the grand tours continued and just like it happened in 2014, BMC found themselves in a difficult position. Back then, Tejay van Garderen crashed and the team opted to let Greg Van Avermaet stay in front to go for the stage win. Today they made a similar choice and that cost their leader valuable time. No one really doubts that Porte has the legs to match the best in this race but he has often shown mental fragility. The next few days will be a stern test of his ability to handle the numerous amounts of bad luck he has had in his grand tour career.

 

While Porte will have a few days to reflect on his situation, Sagan now finds himself in the race lead. Barring bad luck, he won’t lose it the next few days and he could keep it in stage 5 too. It’s a stage that he can even win but if the GC riders go full gas on the steep climb, it may be too hard for him. However, his yellow adventure will definitely come to an end in the Aspin stage on Friday.

 

For the next two days, he will have to get back into sprinting mode as we can expect two bunch kicks. The first week is the biggest goal of the entire race for Etixx-QuickStep and Lotto Soudal and both were left hugely disappointed in the first stage. They will be fully motivated for stage 3 and will leave nothing to chance when it comes down to the chase.

 

On paper, this stage could have been a dangerous one as the plains in Northern France can be windy. However, there will barely be any wind at all on Monday so it should actually be a rare calm day for the riders. No one can take the polka-dot jersey away from Jasper Stuyven so there is no real incentive to attack. Hence, we can expect riders from Fortuneo-Vital Concept, Cofidis and maybe Lampre-Merida and IAM to attack straight from the gun and they will be allowed to go clear immediately.

 

It will be up to Tinkoff to set the early pace but very soon Etixx-QuickStep and Lotto Soudal will lend a hand too. We expect to see Maciej Bodnar, Julien Vermote and Thomas De Gendt on the front for almost the entire stage and with no wind, it will probably be a pretty dull affair. The highlight will be the intermediate sprint which comes relatively close to the finish and so the sprinters will be doing it at 75% just to make sure that they don’t lose too many valuable points.

 

While most of the stage will be calm, it will be very hectic in the finale. The sprint is a very special one as there is this left-hand turn in a roundabout just 300m from the line. It will be of utmost importance to be one of the first 3-4 riders through that bend as there will be no chance to get the win if you are too far back. This means that it’s a day for the best lead-out trains and a strong team will be more important than pure speed. At the same time, the sprint is slightly uphill which favours certain sprinters.

 

This means that it should be another battle between the Lotto Soudal and Etixx-QuickStep trains. On paper, they are the strongest here and that was confirmed in stage 1. There was no doubt that those two teams had the most power but while Lotto Soudal seemed to do everything right, Etixx-QuickStep messed it up. The Belgians stayed in the wind in the left-hand side of the road and that cost them too much energy, leaving Kittel isolated way too early.

 

While the Etixx riders faded, Lotto Soudal were on track for victory when Jurgen Roelandts led them under the flamme rouge. At that point, Jens Debusschere, Greg Henderson and André Greipel were in the perfect position but then it all went wrong. Like it has happened so many times in the past, Greipel lost Henderson’s wheel and when the Kiwi did one of his excellent lead-outs, it was Mark Cavendish who benefited. Greipel had to come far from behind and did a very strong sprint to take fourth.

 

The result was not the expected outcome for Lotto Soudal but they can take consolation from the fact that their train worked well. In the past, the combination Sieberg-Roelandts-Henderson- Greipel was in a class of its own and with the addition of Debusschere in the position behind Roelandts, they have only become stronger. In a sprint where lead-outs are crucial, the team is a massive advantage for Greipel. He may not be as fast as Kittel but if he can get through the final turn in second position by Henderson, he will be very hard to beat. He loves this kind of uphill sprint which suits Kittel less. With a more experienced and better lead-out, Greipel is our favourite to win this technical sprint.

 

While Greipel has the best team, Marcel Kittel is the fastest. He proved so again in stage 1 but he spent too much time in the wind to hold Cavendish off. An uphill sprint is not perfect for him but he has won much harder sprints in the past and seems to be in excellent condition. If it comes down to a battle on pure speed, Kittel will win this stage.

 

It will all depend on how the Etixx-QuickStep train handles the lead-out. They don’t have the firepower of Lotto Soudal. Maximilano Richeze is one of the best lead-out men in the world but as he crashed in January, he has barely raced with Kittel. Hence, he has slotted into the position as the third last rider, with Kittel preferring to stick to the successful collaboration with Fabio Sabatini from the Giro d’Italia.

 

However, Sabatini didn’t really shine in stage 1. He stayed on Kittel’s wheel and cracked before he had even taken a single turn. He has to do much better tomorrow as Etixx-QuickStep need their full team to match Lotto Soudal. If Sabatini can step up and Richeze can prove his class, Kittel should be one of the first riders trough the turn and then no one is going to stop him.

 

Mark Cavendish did everything right in the first sprint. He made use of all his experience to stay protected and jump from wheel to wheel and then finally had a bit of luck when Sagan allowed him to pass on the right while the wind was coming from the left. That made him look superior in the sprint and as he already showed at Scheldeprijs and the Tour of California, he is still very close to Kittel and Greipel when it comes to pure speed.

 

However, it will be harder for him to win this stage. This is all about lead-outs and even though Dimension Data did well in stage 1, they don’t have the firepower to match the best trains. Reinardt van Rensburg, Edvald Boasson Hagen and Mark Renshaw have to drop him off on a good wheel before the final turn but that won’t be easy. He is probably not fast enough to beat Kittel in a direct duel on pure speed and he needs to be right behind Greipel to come around the Lotto sprinter. However, he has proved that he can handle these tricky finales well and he is one of the select few with the speed to win.

 

Peter Sagan is not a rider for the pure bunch sprints but this one suits him pretty well. He may not have much of a train but he doesn’t need one. He is a master in positioning and like he did in stage 1, he usually gets the wheel he wants. If Lotto Soudal is the first team in the final turn, there is a big chance that Sagan will be right behind Greipel. It won’t be easy for him to win but a short sprint suits his explosiveness better than Saturday’s power sprint. The uphill finale is good for him too and this year he has been sprinting better than ever. If the big sprinters hit out too early, Sagan could actually come around to make it two in a row.

 

Alexander Kristoff has not been sprinting well this year. He failed again in stage 1 where several riders were faster than him. However, he had to spend a bit too much time in the wind as he had lost position in the finale. In this stage, he will benefit from the Katusha lead-out which dominated the finales last year. With Michael Mørkøv suffering from injuries, he is back with his old train of Marco Haller and Jacopo Guarnieri. Guarnieri is one of the best lead-out men in the world and if he can return to his 2015 level, Kristoff could get the lead-out that will allow him to win this kind of sprint.

 

Dylan Groenewegen is one of the fastest riders here. At the Ster ZLM Toer, he proved that he has the speed to take on Kittel and Greipel and his confidence is high after his recent string of successes. Furthermore, LottoNL-Jumbo have proved that their train is one of the best. They had bad luck in stage 1 where Robert Wagner lost his teammates and Timo Roosen crashed and this left Groenewegen with just Maarten Wynants and Sep Vanmarcke. That was too little and they hit the front way too early. Finally, Groenewegen was taken out of contention by Mørkøv’s crash. If LottoNL-Jumbo can stay together, they should be able to bring Groenewegen into a good position and then he has the speed to finish it off.

 

Edward Theuns is not a pure sprinter but as he has proved on several occasions, he can mix it up with the best even in the big bunch kicks. He was a nice fifth in stage 1 where he again showed his great ability to position himself. With Fabian Cancellara and Jasper Stuyven at his side, he has a very strong lead-out which is crucial in this stage. Furthermore, he loves this kind of uphill sprint. He won’t win the stage but he could very well finish in the top 5 again.

 

Bryan Coquard has won more races than anyone else in 2016. In the past, he lost way too many races due to poor positioning but that has now changed. Now he is much more consistent and the Direct Energie train with Yohann Gene, Angelo Tulik and Adrien Petit has worked well. They don’t have the team to bring him into a winning position for this kind of sprint but if they time things well, a top 3 is definitely within his reach. This is his home stage so he will be very motivated.

 

Cofidis are without Nacer Bouhanni but they still have one of the best trains here. This means that Christophe Laporte has a formidable team at his side. He may not be the fastest sprinter here but he can benefit from his great support crew. Cyril Lemoine and Geoffrey Soupe did a good job to bring him into position on stage 1 and they have the power to do so again in this stage. Of course he won’t win the stage but good teamwork could allow him to get far.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: André Greipel

Other winner candidates: Marcel Kittel, Mark Cavendish

Outsiders: Peter Sagan, Alexander Kristoff, Dylan Groenewegen

Jokers: Edward Theuns, Bryan Coquard, Christophe Laporte