Mark Cavendish proved that he is back to his best by continuing his dominance of the Tour de France sprints but his rivals will get an immediate chance to get revenge. Stage 4 is an almost completely flat stage but a tough uphill sprint will add to the complexity and put the pure sprinters at a disadvantage in what should be a very exciting battle between both strong and fast riders.

 

The course

In recent years, the organizers have shortened the stages significantly and nowadays there aren’t many Tour de France stages of more than 200km. Hence, it’s a rare exception to find two pretty long stages in a row but that’s what the riders will face in the first week of this year’s race. Having started in the far north, the riders have a long way to travel to get to the mountains and that is reflected in the distances in the first week. One day after the second longest stage, the riders will face the longest route of this year’s race on stage 4 where the sprinters again hope to flex their muscles on an almost completely flat course. However, the stage has a small sting in its tail as an uphill finish could suit the stronger sprinters more than the really fast guys.

 

The 237.5km stage will continue the long southeasterly journey towards the mountains as it brings the riders from Saumur to Limoges. The first 150km are very straightforward as they are completely flat and barely include a single change of direction. Then the road starts to rise very slightly, culminating with the category 4 climb of Cot de la Maison Neuve (1.2km, 5.6%) at the 182km mark. Twelve kilometres earlier the riders will contest the intermediate sprint which is slightly uphill as the final kilometre averages 1.2%.

 

After the KOM sprint, the road continues to rise for a little while as they riders get to the highest point of the stage at the 210km mark. From there, the final 27.5km are mainly slightly descending.

 

In the finale, the riders will deviate slightly from the direct route to approach Limoges from a northeasterly direction. Unlike in the previous stage, they won’t face any major technical challenges in the city. They will pass straight through two roundabouts before they get to the 3km to go mark. Then there are a few sweeping bends, the final one coming with 1.3km to go. From there, it is a straight, 6.5m wide road.

 

While there aren’t any technical challenges, the sprint could still offer a few surprises for the fast guys. There’s a small climb with 8km to go and then the road is slightly descending until the riders get to the flamme rouge. After 500m of flat road, the final 500m are uphill at around 5%.

 

Limoges always hosts the final stage of the Tour du Limousin. Maurits Lammertink, Manuel Belletti, Stephane Rossetto, Jeremy Roy, Matthieu Ladagnous, Davide Appollonio, Romain Feillu, Benoit Vaugrenard, Aliaksandr Usau and Sebastien Hinault are the latest winners in the city where current riders Bernhard Eisel and Pierrick Fedrigo also have won stages in the past. The city last hosted a Tour de France stage in 2000 when Christophe Agnolutto held off the peloton to take a solo win. It was visited by Paris-Nice in 2010 and 2007 when William Bonnet and Franco Pellizotti emerged as the winners.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Today the riders had much better conditions than they had for the first two stages and things will continue to improve for tomorrow where summer will really arrive. It will be a day with great sunshine and a maximum temperature of 25 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a northwesterly direction and this means that the riders will have a tailwind and a cross-tailwind all day. In the finale, there will be a cross-tailwind until the riders gradually turn into a cross-headwind during the final 5km.

 

The favourites

In the world of cycling, things can change very quickly. Going into the Tour, Mark Cavendish barely got any attention at all. The Brit has been focused on the track and had a vastly different preparation than he has usually had. Since the Tour of California, he has only done the British Championships and one stage of the Tour de Slovenie which he had to abandon. He openly admitted that his different approach was a big question mark and that it could either be the best or the worst he had done.

 

After two sprint stages, a first conclusion can be made: it was one of the best things he has done. The Brit seems to be back at his best level and is now clocking up victories at a rate like he did during his heydays in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011. However, the circumstances are rather different. Back then, the HTC train dominated things and Cavendish just had to finish it off. In this race, Dimension Data don’t have the firepower to compete with the best trains and so he has to approach the sprints differently.

 

He is doing so very well. Making use of his vast experience and a great Mark Renshaw, he has managed to catch the right wheel in both sprints he has done. He may not be the fastest rider – there is little doubt that Kittel and Greipel have slightly more speed – but in the first sprints Cavendish has been smarter. Two days ago he came off Sagan’s wheel and today he managed to jump onto Greipel when Jurgen Roelandts brought the German to the front. Finally he timed his sprint to perfection and narrowly came around hi arch-rival.

 

The victories are great for Cavendish who now gets a much easier life. There is little doubt that he prefers to leave the race early to focus on the Olympics but for Dimension Data this is the biggest event. They pay his salary so if he hadn’t won anything, it would be hard to leave the race prematurely. Now he has already saved the race for the South Africans and he can easily bow out before we get to the difficult final week in the Alps.

 

For Greipel, it was a frustrating near-miss. The Lotto Soudal train is usually flawless but today they messed it up completely and Greiple was completely isolated at the flamme rouge. However, Jurgen Roelandts proved his immense class by moving up on the inside, taking Greipel with him in the process and giving him the perfect lead-out. As expected, Greipel was the first sprinter through the final turn and that would usually have been enough for him to win. He later complained about a stupid mistake of choosing too big of a gear for the uphill sprint and feels convinced that he would have won if he had just stayed in the gear he had.

 

The sprint also underlined what we had already mentioned yesterday: the Etixx-QuickStep train is still not working at 100%. Kittel and Richeze have barely been riding together this year and so Kittel has opted to keep Fabio Sabatini as his final lead-out man. Today Richeze did a great job to lead the peloton under the flamme rouge but when it was time for Sabatini to take over, the team was passed by several trains. For the second sprint in a row, Sabatini faded before he had even hit the wind and the Italian seems to be far from his best level. Even if the team was at 100%, they would have a hard time competing with Lotto Soudal but now they are clearly at a disadvantage. It may be time to use the in-form Richeze as the final lead-out man. Kittel is clearly fast enough but the team works poorly.

 

Stage 4 presents the penultimate opportunity for the sprinters in the first week but it’s a very different sprint from what we have seen until now. Stage 1 had a real power finale and stage 3 was all about positioning in the final turn. On Tuesday, the position will be less important as there aren’t many technical challenges but it will be all about power. 500m at 5% will make it a very tough finale and we should see an exciting battle between the three fastest riders Kittel, Greipel and Cavendish who can all handle this kind of finale, and the puncheur-like sprinters like Sagan, Matthews and Coquard who have a real shot at victory in this kind of sprint.

 

Before we get to the sprint, we should be in for another uneventful and boring stage. Hopefully, we can avoid today’s bizarre scenario but there is a risk of a repeat. Everybody knows that the stage will be firmly controlled so the break will probably go from the gun. Hopefully, the lumpier finale will inspire a few more riders but it will probably again be a very small break, mostly made up of local Frenchmen.

 

Today there was barely any reason to chase until Voeckler attacked. Tomorrow Tinkoff will again take the early control and then Lotto Soudal and Etixx-QuickStep will again come to the fore. Dimension Data briefly had Daniel Teklehaminanot on the front in today’s stage but tomorrow they will have a greater responsibility. With three teams and Tinkoff all willing to do some work, the stage will be held firmly under control and they will leave nothing to change. With very little wind, it should be a traditional sprint stage but the tailwind should at least make things a bit faster.

 

Again the sprinters will contest the intermediate sprint at 75% and then things will heat up in the finale. The roads around Limoges are definitely not flat and much rougher than they look like. Teams like Orica-GreenEDGE and Direct Energie have a clear interest in making the race hard so they may try to go fast on the climbs. This will make it even more difficult for the breakaway which will have no chance. There is little doubt that it will come down to a sprint but the many small climbs in the finale will take the sting out of the sprinters legs and more riders will definitely get dropped in the finale.

 

Despite the difficult nature of the last part, we will again put André Greipel on top of our list of favourites. The German may be known as a pure sprinter but what he really prefers are uphill sprints. He relished the uphill finish today which was perfect for him. Tomorrow it’s a bit steeper and that may suit him a bit less but he has won harder sprints in the past. Most will remember how he crushed the opposition in the uphill sprint on stage 5 of this year’s Giro and that was a harder finale than this one.

 

Furthermore, it’s a very long stage and that usually suits Greipel who has done well in the classics and likes races of attrition. Finally, he still benefits from having the best train. The difficult nature of the finale may chance the order a bit – Roelandts could very well be the final man in the lead-out – but his team still has an immense firepower and speed for the flat run-in to the final climb. They dominated the finale in stage 1 – where Greipel failed to keep up with the best – and today they saved themselves from what looked like a complete failure to deliver Greipel on the front.

 

Of course lead-outs are less important and it will be more about timing and power. Greipel is extremely powerful in these finishes and if he has the legs he had on that stage in the Giro, he will be hard to beat. The Lotto Soudal captain is our favourite.

 

Peter Sagan is not fast enough to win the real bunch sprints but in an uphill finale he has a real shot at victory. Today the finale was not steep enough but a 5% uphill sprint suits him down to the ground. This will put him on par with the more powerful guys like Kittel and Greipel. Furthermore, he is very good at positioning and this makes him and he usually finds the wheel that he wants. He has also become a lot more mature and handles the sprints much wiser than he did in the past when he often lost his head.

 

However, Sagan has not won the uphill sprints that one would usually expect. He was beaten by Ewan in a similar finale at last year’s Vuelta and this time Greg Van Avermaet beat him both at Het Nieuwsblad and at Tirreno-Adriatico. On the other hand, his sprinting form has been excellent all year and his condition is obviously great. He was superior yesterday and if he can time his sprint right, he won’t be easy to beat tomorrow either.

 

This sprint is not tailor-made for Marcel Kittel. The German is obviously the fastest in a flat sprint but things can quickly change on these gradients. However, he has won similar sprints in the past, most notably in Paris-Nice a few years ago. There is little doubt that he has the power and speed to win but his superiority will be less evident. Hence, he will be more reliant on positioning and so it’s a problem that his Etixx-QuickStep team is working so poorly. It is time to use Maximilano Richeze as the final lead-out man – especially for this kind of finish. If the Argentinean can return to his level for the 2015 Giro, Kittel may finally get a good lead-out and then his immense power will allow him to win even this kind of uphill sprint.

 

Mark Cavendish has already won two stages and he can definitely make it a hat-trick. He has won harder sprints in the past – remember stage 11 in the 2009 Tour or the 2011 Worlds in Copenhagen – but an uphill finish favours him less. Greipel is usually stronger in this kind of sprint and he again has to rely on his great positioning and ability to read the sprint. He needs more luck to win on Tuesday but if he again gets onto the right wheel, another win is within reach.

 

While Cavendish is less fond of an uphill sprint, this is what Bryan Coquard really likes. Many remember how he blasted past everyone and came from far back to take second in a stage at least year’s Paris-Nice and he has dominated uphill sprints in races like the Route du Sud in the past. This year he has even been faster than ever and he has improved his positioning massively. His train is not able to match the best but if he is not too far back at the start of the sprint, he is one of the big favourites for this stage.

 

Michael Matthews is not fast enough to win the real sprints but this one suits him really well. He would obviously have preferred it to be even harder but on a 5% climb he is in with a shot. The distance will make it a hard race and this favours him even more and with the likes of Albasini, Gerrans and Impey he has a solid lead-out. He may not be quite as fast as Sagan and Coquard but if he can time things well, he can win the stage.

 

Sondre Holst Enger proved his potential in today’s sprint but his best chance of a stage win comes tomorrow. The Norwegian is an excellent puncheur who made everyone look like junior riders when he won the final stage of this year’s Tour of Croatia. His form is very good and he has the speed to be up there in this kind of finish. The main challenge will be the positioning as he doesn’t have much experience. IAM don’t have the best train but if Naesen, Elmiger and Howard can drop him off near the front, he is capably of a surprise result.

 

The rider who finished second behind Enger in Croatia, was Edward Theuns. The Belgian is another specialist in these uphill sprints which he proved by winning the first stage of the Tour of Belgium. He has been riding very well and consistently in the first sprints and he has one big advantage: his team. Gregory Rast, Fabian Cancellara and Jasper Stuyven are really strong for this kind of finale. Theuns may not be fast enough to win but a podium is definitely possible.

 

Christophe Laporte has taken over the sprint role at Cofidis and has done really well in the first sprints. This one suits him even better as he is more of a puncheur than a real sprinter. He showed his class in a much harder finish at last year’s GP de Wallonie and he can even count on Bouhanni’s great train. They have done really well in the first stages and tomorrow Laporte should be able to finish it off even better.

 

John Degenkolb is still not at 100% and he is still not fully competitive in the sprints. Usually, this stage would have been perfect for him but we doubt that he is strong enough to win at the moment. Nonetheless, he should be much closer to the best in tomorrow’s stage. Giant-Alpecin have done a solid job in the lead-outs and Degenkolb has actually been able to stay with them which has been a problem in the past. If he can do so again tomorrow, it may be time for him to finally achieve a result.

 

Davide Cimolai is not a man for the flat sprints but he loves uphill sprints. He won a harder stage in last year’s Paris-Nice where he beat the likes of Coquard and Matthews. He has been at the same level since but he has the potential for this kind of sprint. Unfortunately, he doesn’t seem to be at 100% at the moment and his team is not able to provide him with much support as he only has Yokiya Arashiro and Luka Pibernik for the lead-out.

 

Finally, we will point to Samuel Dumoulin. The veteran is mainly here to work for Romain Bardet but he is keen to take his chances in the stages that suit him. Stage 2 was his big goal but it turned out to be too hard for the in-form Frenchman. This stage suits him much better and there is little doubt that he is in excellent form. He was fourth at the French Championships on a very difficult course and won a much harder uphill sprint at the GP de Plumelec. The main problem is the positioning as he won’t have any support but if he is not too far back, this is a great sprint for him.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: André Greipel

Other winner candidates: Peter Sagan, Marcel Kittel

Outsiders: Mark Cavendish, Bryan Coquard, Michael Matthews

Jokers: Sondre Holst Enger, Edward Theuns, Christophe Laporte, John Degenkolb, Davide Cimolai, Samuel Dumoulin