As expected, stage 5 didn’t do any major damage in the battle for the overall victory but it gave some indications of who’s on form at this year’s Tour de France. While the GC riders will prepare themselves for the first real battles in the Pyrenees, the sprinters will return to centre stage for what will be a final bunch sprint in a hectic first week of the race.

 

The course

Unlike last year, the first week is a bit of a festival for the sprinters and after the short foray into Massif Central, the fast riders will have one final chance before the race heads into the Pyrenees. Stage 6 is a typical transitional stage that will bring the riders from the hilly region in the centre of the country to the foot of the mountain range on the French-Spanish border and as it precedes three days of hard climbing, an eager group of fast riders will be keen to grab another opportunity to go for glory.

 

The 190.5km stage starts in Arpajon-sur-Cere and brings the riders in a southwesterly direction to Montauban close to the Pyrenees. Starting on the outskirts of Massif Central, the stage has a lumpy beginning before a long descent leads to a flatter part of France. The flat terrain will briefly be interrupted by the category 3 climb of Col des Estaques (2km, 6%) and the category 4 climb of Cote d’Aubin (1.3km, 5.4%) before a gradual uphill section leads to the intermediate sprint at the 77.5km mark. It’s a tough sprint as the final kilometre averages 3.6%.

 

After the sprint, the terrain again gets significantly flatter and only the category 3 climb of Cote de Saint-Antonin-Noble-Val (3.2km, 5.1%) will challenge the riders as they complete their journey to Montauban. The climb comes with 41.5km to go and the final part of the stage has no challenges at all. However, the finale is a bit technical as the riders will go straight through roundabout with 3000m, 1200m and 600m to go respectively. Then a sweeping turn leads onto the 380m finishing straight on a 6.5m wide road. The final kilometre is very slightly descending.

 

Montauban last hosted a Tour de France stage in 1998 when Jacky Durand beat Eddy Mazzoleni in a two-rider sprint. One year later it hosted two half-stages of the Route du Sud, a sprint stage won by Robbie McEwen and a time trial won by Christophe Moreau.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The last few days have been very pleasant but now it is time for the first serious heat. Thursday is forecasted to be sunny and hot with a maximum temperature at the finish of 33 degrees.

 

There will only be a very light wind from a northeasterly direction which means that the riders will have a combination of tailwind and cross-tailwind all day. As it will become more of a easterly wind in the finale, it will be a tailwind for most of the final 5km, mainly in the final 1300m.

 

The favourites

As expected, stage 5 ended as a bit of a waiting game. The stage was not hard enough to make a difference between the best and so it was not a stage where you could win the race. You could definitely lose it and that’s why the only reasonable strategy was to ride hard on the front. As we said yesterday, the initiative had to come from either Movistar or Sky and it was the Spanish team that made some damage. The goal probably was to test Alberto Contador but they didn’t get what they wanted. The Spaniard only lost 33 seconds so they didn’t take him completely out of contention. However, it is very hard to believe that he will recover enough to have a real shot even at the podium.

 

The stage still gave some clear indications. First of all, it again confirmed that Vincenzo Nibali is nowhere near his best. That makes things a lot clearer in the Astana camp that can now go fully for Aru and Nibali can still become a crucial domestique in the Alps when he has ridden himself back into form for the Olympics. On the other hand, the Astana team which probably is the second strongest on paper, performed really poorly as only Diego Rosa managed to stay with Aru until the penultimate climb where the climbing talent also had to surrender. Unless the Giro riders get better, there will be no chance for Astana to play the same prominent role as they have done in recent grand tours.

 

Secondly, the Sky team was not as strong as expected. The biggest surprise was to see Mikel Landa get dropped but Wout Poels should also have been there in the finale. Landa usually suffers in the heat so he could become better later. On the other hand, Sergio Henao looks very strong and Geraint Thomas bounced back well from his crashes. Mikel Nieve is his solid self and so Froome still has the best team even though it appears to be weaker than expected.

 

Froome briefly appeared to be dropped when Bardet attacked in the finale but there is no reason to be concerned. The Brit probably knew that there was no real danger and looked like he was trying to avoid getting into the red zone. He used Henao to pace him back and in general he looked very strong. That was also the case for Richie Porte who seemed to be at ease throughout the entire stage and most have boosted his morale after the disappointing time loss on stage 2. Daniel Martin also confirmed that he is climbing better than ever and that his training on the long climbs in Andorra has served him well.

 

Thibaut Pinot seemed to be in trouble of the Pay de Peyrol but he was up there with the attacks on the final climb. The Frenchman usually needs to get his climbing legs going and he is not comfortable in the heat. However, it is still hard to gauge how well the FDJ rider is going.

 

For Sky, it was the perfect scenario that Van Avermaet took the lead. This means that Froome may be able to stay out of yellow after Friday’s first big mountain stage. There are no guarantees but Van Avermaet can definitely defend his lead there. However, it will all come to an end for him on stage 8 which is too hard for him.

 

In general, the stage panned out as we predicted yesterday. Only Etixx-QuickStep had a real interest in bringing back the break but they didn’t have team to do so. As Julian Alaphilippe was clearly in trouble, it turned out to be a wise decision not to try and they saved important energy for Thursday’s sprint stage. As we said yesterday, it was the pace of Movistar or Sky that could spoil the party for the break but they started their effort too late.

 

 

For now, it will be time to recover from today’s effort in what should be a very easy stage 6. This is the final opportunity for the sprinters before we head into the Pyrenees and the fastmen will have to wait until stage 10 and 11 before they can again go for glory. Hence, there is little doubt that this stage will be firmly controlled by the sprint teams and as there won’t be any win, there is no risk for the GC riders either. The mountains jersey is not even up for grabs so there is no incentive to go on the attack. Prepare yourself for a stage that could be very similar to the bizarre third stage!

 

The start may be hilly but the early break will probably be formed straight from the gun, with riders from Fortuneo-Vital Concept, Lampre-Merida, IAM, Cofidis and Bora-Argon 18 the most likely to show themselves. BMC will hit the front but very soon Etixx-QuickStep, Dimension Data and Lotto Soudal will take over. Then Julien Vermote, Lars Bak, Thomas Degendt, Natnael Berhane and Daniel Teklehaimanot will spend the day on the front and make sure that the break will be caught in time. Meanwhile, the sprinters will contest the difficult uphill intermediate sprint at 75% to make sure that they don’t lose too many points in the battle for green. However, the battle for the points jersey now seems to be down to Kittel, Cavendish, Sagan and Coquard and the others sprinters will probably save their energy for the finale.

 

In the end, it will come down to a very fast, flat tailwind sprint which is great for the pure sprinters. However, it’s a pretty technical with numerous roundabouts so positioning will be very important. You can’t be too far back in the final roundabout and so lead-outs will be crucial. At the same time, the many roundabouts mean that it will be very difficult to stay together and we could very well have another hugely confusing sprint as we have had in the first sprint stages.

 

In the first two sprints, Etixx-QuickStep messed up the lead-outs and Marcel Kittel had to start from way too far back. They launched their train too early and then drifted backwards when their rivals came to the fore. However, Kittel did great sprints on both occasions and especially his power in the flat tailwind sprint on stage 1 was impressive.

 

Those sprints confirmed that Kittel is by far the fastest rider in the field. He has always claimed that he is feeling great and by winning the tough uphill sprint, he has fully confirmed that his legs are great. Tomorrow’s sprint suits him a lot better and we have little doubt that he will take the win if he is not too far back when the sprint is launched.

 

That’s the tricky part for Kittel. Etixx-QuickStep still don’t have the power of Lotto Soudal and they have to come from behind. It is still a concern that Fabio Sabatini is riding very poorly and has been unable to make much of a contribution. On the other hand, Maximilano Richeze is brutally strong and it must be time for him to slot into the penultimate position in the train. In any case, the team now know he formula which is to start late and come from behind. They have the confidence and still one of the best trains. They should be able to bring Kittel into a position that will allow him to use his extreme speed to win the stage.

 

His biggest rival will be André Greipel. The German ran out of power in stage 4 which was a bit of a surprise as it was a finish that suited him down to the ground. However, he was probably the strongest one day earlier so there is nothing wrong with his legs. He is a very strong guy who usually gets better when the racing gets harder so he should benefit from today’s tough stage.

 

Most importantly, Lotto Soudal still have the best train. Their lead-outs have not always been flawless but they have been the best in every sprint stage so far. The technical run-in is not ideal for Greipel as he usually has trouble keeping up with his teammates but if he can stay on Greg Henderson’s wheel, it should be another textbook lead-out. If Kittel is further back, Greipel has the speed to win.

 

The technical finale is probably great news for Mark Cavendish. The Brit doesn’t have a train that can match Etixx-QuickStep and Lotto Soudal but he has made use of his vast experience to take two stage wins. He has proved that he has the speed to challenge the two big Germans and as this could very well be another confused finale, he will again surf the wheels. He has proved that he knows how to pick the right one. When it comes to pure speed, he is very close to Greipel and not too far behind Kittel so if Etixx-QuickStep mess things up, Cavendish could very well be the one to capitalize on their mistakes.

 

There is little doubt that Dylan Groenewegen is the fourth fastest rider in this field. The Dutchman has proved that he can beat Kittel and Greipel if things work out but until now things haven’t worked out in the Tour. LottoNL-Jumbo have actually been very strong but the inexperienced sprinter has been unable to stay with his teammates. However, he proved his impressive speed in the uphill sprint on stage 4 where he came from far back to take fourth. With Maarten Wynants, Timo Roosen, Robert Wagner and Sep Vanmarcke, he the third most powerful train so if he can for once stay with them and start the sprint from a good position, he could potentially win this stage.

 

It has been a bad start for Alexander Kristoff and Katusha but in stage 4, they finally did a good lead-out. Last year Haller-Guarnieri-Kristoff dominated the sprints but this year they haven’t had the same power. Yesterday Guarnieri again looked like his former self and Kristoff could start his sprint from the front. That will be very important in this flat tailwind sprint. It’s not an ideal sprint for the Norwegian but with a good lead-out and a growing condition, he should be up there.

 

Bryan Coquard was very close to victory in stage 4 but this power sprint suits him less. In the smaller races, he can win these sprints but the tiny Frenchman doesn’t have the power of the big Germans. On the other hand, his confidence is very high and he is still one of the fastest in a flat sprint. Unfortunately, his train has not been working optimally and he has had to start his sprints from too far back. He has improved his positioning a lot but he still needs to be much closer to the front if he wants to win this kind of sprint.

 

Peter Sagan has failed to win the uphill sprints and he will have a much smaller chance in a power sprint like this. He doesn’t have the speed to match the best and his main goal will be to score as many points as possible. He is great when it comes to positioning and he will benefit from the technical finale. He’ll probably choose either Kittel’s or Greipel’s wheel and then try to stay there to probably take second place.

 

Edward Theuns has had a great race so far with two fifth places. He has again confirmed that he is great when it comes to positioning and the train of Cancellara-Stuyven-Theuns has done a great job. That lead-out is very important in this kind of finale and Theuns has proved that he can be up there in the flat sprints. He won’t win the stage but another top 5 is definitely within reach.

 

Sondre Holst Enger is not a pure sprinter and he doesn’t have much experience. However, we have been very impressed by his positioning in the first sprint stages where he has always been able to start his sprint near the front. That’s a very important skillset in this kind of finale. Of course he is not fast enough to win a flat sprint but his positioning skills should allow him to achieve another top result.

 

Finally, we will point to Christophe Laporte. The Frenchman has been doing some great sprints as the plan B at Cofidis, benefiting hugely from Bouhanni’s train. A flat sprint is far from ideal for him as he excels in uphill sprints so he won’t win the stage. On the other hand, his strong team will make a difference in this kind of finale so a top 5 is definitely possible.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: André Greipel, Mark Cavendish

Outsiders: Dylan Groenewegen, Alexander Kristoff, Bryan Coquard

Jokers: Peter Sagan, Edward Theuns, Sondre Holst Enger, Christophe Laporte