With another smart sprint, Mark Cavendish emerged as the sprinter of the first week but now it is time for the fast guys to step into the background. After one six days of patient waiting, it is finally time for the GC riders to show their cards in the first stage in the Pyrenees and even though the opening test is not the hardest of the race, the Col d’Aspin is going to give the first true indication of who’s going to win this year’s race.

 

The course

One of the most highly anticipated days of the entire cycling season is the first big day in the mountains at the Tour de France. Due to the French geography, ASO have often postponed the first big battle between the climbers to a relatively late point in the race as it has often come after the first rest day. One of the notable features in this year’s race is that the three days in the Pyrenees already come in the first week, starting with the short, intense stage 7 that brings the riders into the Pyrenean heartland. As it is often the case for the first mountain stage at the Tour, it is a classical stage with a long, flat run and one big climb in the end. There may not be a mountaintop finish but as the famous Col d’Aspin is followed by just a short descent to the finish at Lac de Payolle, this is the day when we will get the first indication of who’s going to win the Tour.

 

At just 162.5km, the stage from L’Isle-Jourdain to Lac de Payolle is relatively short. As usual for the first Pyrenean stage, the first part will see the riders complete the journey to the foot of the mountains as they travel along flat roads in a southerly and southeasterly direction. After an easy start, the terrain gradually gets lumpier but the real climbing only starts after the feed zone in Tournay at the 105.5km mark. Here the riders will hit the bottom of the category 4 climb of Cote de Capven (7.7km, 3.1%) which will bring the riders to a flat plateau.

 

The flat terrain comes to an abrupt end when the riders have contested the intermediate sprint at the 137km mark – a relatively straightforward sprint that is only very slightly uphill. After just a few more kilometres of flat roads, the riders will turn to the west to head up the famous category 1 climb of Col d’Aspin. It averages 6.5% over 12km but it can be split into two. The first 4km are relatively easy but then the gradient gets tougher and in the final 5km, it stays above 7.5% for most of the time.

 

The summit is located just 7km from the finish and this final part will be fast. The first part of the descent isn’t very difficult but then several hairpin turns in the final part will lead the riders to the final 1200m which are slightly uphill. The first 1000m average 4% and then it level out for the final 200m. This final section follows a long, straight, 5m wide road that only has a very slightly bend with 600m to go.

 

Lac de Payolle has not hosted the finish of a major bike race for more than a decade.

 

 

 

 

                                            

The weather

The Pyrenees are famously known for their brutal heat and it seems that it will again be a hot visit to the mountains. The maximum temperature at the bottom of the Col d’Aspin will be 27 degrees but the real challenge could very well be the rain. Thunderstorms are forecast and at the moment it seems unlikely that the riders will not face wet conditions at some point during the stage as a total amount of 19mm of rain is forecasted.

 

There will be a light wind from a northeasterly direction which means that the riders will have a tailwind in the first part and then a cross-tailwind then the terrain gets hillier. There will be a cross-headwind on the Col d’Aspin and a headwind on most of the descent. There will be a cross-tailwind in the final 1200m.

 

The favourites

Before the start of the Tour de France, Mark Cavndish said that his different preparation for a hectic summer could be either the worst or the best thing he had done. After less than a week of racing, we can draw the conclusion: it’s definitely among the best changes he has ever made. The Brit is back to his best and for the first time ever he has won three stages in just six days of racing.

 

Like we said a few days ago, Cavendish’s approach is much different from what it has been in the past. In his heydays, he used the formidable HTC train to lead him out but now he uses his head just as much as his legs. All his sprint victories have been based on great smartness and he has timed everything to perfection every time. While Marcel Kittel has done long sprint, the Brit has stayed out of the wind before launching his effort at the perfect moment. He has often admitted that he is no longer as fast as Kittel but if he can stay protected for a little bit longer, the difference is so small that Cavendish can beat the faster German.

 

Today Cavendish again grabbed Kittel’s wheel and then used his slipstream to get the jump on him. No other sprinter can use the same tactic as they are not fast enough to come around and hold Kittel off but Cavendish still has the famous and an impressive top speed. With three stage wins, he now carries the momentum into the Pyrenees and as we said a few days ago, his success will make it much easier for him to abandon the race before we get to the Alps.

 

At the same time, it’s a hugely frustrating for André Greipel. The Lotto Soudal train failed completely in the disorganized sprint. On paper, they have the firepower to dominate things but for some reason they have failed to stay together. In the first three sprints, they still managed to bring Greipel into a good position but today they messed it up completely. The pressure is growing and Greipel won’t have much fun when he suffers through the Pyrenees as he will have to wait almost a week before he gets his next opportunity.

 

The Etixx-QuickStep train is still not working well either but today there was also reason to blame Kittel. In fact, Fabio Sabatini finally stepped up and did a great lead-out. If he had stayed with his teammate, Kittel may not have been forced to start that early and then he may have been strong enough to win. Finally, it is also important to notice that the Katusha seems to be back at its high level and that is promising for Alexander Kristoff who usually gets better and better as the race goes on.

 

For now, the sprinters will turn into survival mode for the next three stages which is where the battle for the overall win really starts. The first big battle will come in Arcalis on Sunday but the first two Pyrenean stages can’t be underestimated. They offer the first chances for the GC favourites to attack each other and we will definitely see the first real moves among the riders that are going to battle it out for the win in Paris.

 

Stage 7 is the first opportunity for the riders to test themselves on a real climb. The Col d’Aspin is not the hardest climb in the Pyrenees but the final five kilometres are tough enough to make a difference. The finish doesn’t come at the top but with just 5.8km of descending and a short slightly uphill section to the finish, it is almost like a mountaintop finish. This is definitely a stage that can do some damage.

 

Rain is forecasted for the finale and this will add an extra level of complexity. It will make the descent more difficult and as there are some tricky turns in the final part, a good descender can use it to regain or gain ground. At the same time, it may prompt some riders to be a bit more conservative on the climb as they don’t want to risk too much on the descent if the roads are wet.

 

We are pretty confident that we will see a battle between the GC riders. Everybody knows that Chris Froome is usually in a class of his own in the first mountain stage and even though he aims to peak a little later this year, he simply has to test his rivals at a point where he is usually the best. The wet descent may prompt him to ride a bit more conservative as may the headwind but we will be surprised if Sky don’t take it on right from the bottom of the climb. That will make the race pretty selective and then Froome has to gauge whether the conditions are right to attack.

 

Nairo Quintana will probably opt for caution. He knows that this is the time where Froome is usually at his best and he will wait for the Alps to make his moves. At this point, it is all about trying to follow Froome’s attacks and he has specifically prepared for that. Hence, we expect him to ride defensively and leave it to Sky to take the initiative. Most of the other favourites will probably have a similar plan at this point of the race so unless Sky opt to ride completely passively, most are likely to have a wait-and-see approach.

 

In any case, the GC riders are unlikely to fight it out for the stage win. Two very tough stages are coming up and as this is not a mountaintop finish and the climb is not that hard, Sky are unlikely to spend too much energy on getting a first stage win here. They are likely to go full gas on the climb but in the flat section it will be up to others to take the initiative. As said, we expect Quintana to be on the defensive and even though it’s a great stage for Alejandro Valverde, their focus on the overall victory means that they are unlikely to bring the break back. It’s also a good one for Dan Martin but Etixx-QuickStep have been working so hard in the flat stages that they will have to save some energy.

 

Much will depend on whether BMC want to defend the jersey. It will be on the limit for Greg Van Avermaet to limit his losses if Sky go full gas from the bottom. Do BMC want to give him a chance or will they sacrifice his position as he will definitely lose it on Saturday? If the break contains a dangerous rider, they may keep them in check and then the fast pace on the climb will be enough to bring the break back. If not, they will let the break ride away and then it’s hard to imagine that they will be brought back.

 

That makes it very likely that we will get another breakaway win but with BMC probably defending their jersey, you probably need to be a bit back in the GC to have a chance. At the same time, it’s a flat start so it is always a big lottery to get into the break. In these stages, the break may not even contain a single climber and so it is very hard to predict who’ll take the win.

 

However, there are a few very good candidates. One of them is Rui Costa. The Portuguese wanted to focus on the GC but his team wanted him to target a stage win. The parties agreed that the main goal was a stage but that he didn’t have to lose time deliberately. However, the discussion has now become much easier as Costa had a bad day in Massif Central and he is now out of the GC battle. He can focus fully on a stage win and this is a great one for him.

 

In 2013, Costa won two stages in the Tour and he has always been a master in winning from breakaways. He is strong on the flats and one of the best climbers here, especially on a climb that is not too difficult. He is a great descender and he is fast in a sprint. In short, this stage suits him down to the ground.

 

Costa rode poorly in stage 5 but his form can’t be bad. After all he was good in the Tour de Suisse. He claims to have suffered in the heat and it is definitely true that he has always been a rider for the rain. That’s what he is likely to get in tomorrow’s stage. In general, the stars are aligning and so Costa is our favourite to win the stage.

 

Another great candidate is Stephen Cummings. The Brit is aiming for a stage win and he has an incredible success rate, having won stages in all the WorldTour races he has done this year. He claims to be even better than he was last year and that’s a pretty scary prospect. This stage must be a goal for him as it suits him well. He is one of the best on the flats and so has a bigger chance than most to get into the break. He is not a pure climber but he is strong on a climb like this. At the Dauphiné, he was impossible to catch in a much harder stage so if he has the same legs here, he will be very hard to stop.

 

Tom Dumoulin is mainly here to prepare for the Olympics but he still didn’t want to lose time deliberately as he was hoping for a stint in the yellow jersey. A sore throat in the build-up to the Tour destroyed his preparation and he has been disappointed by his level in the first stages. He dropped out of GC contention yesterday and has openly admitted that he wants to win one of the three stages in the Pyrenees. With his power on the flats, he has a solid chance to join the break and even though he is not at 100%, he is still riding well. The final climb is regular and so suits him very well. He is a good descender and very hard to beat in an uphill sprint.

 

If it comes down to a battle between the favourites, Chris Froome is our favourite. As said, the Brit usually demolishes the opposition in the first mountain stage and he will probably give it a go in this stage. As said the headwind and wet roads may put a dampener on his aggression but we still expect him to try. He has been very strong until now and didn’t seem to be in trouble in Massif Central where he rode wisely not to go into the red when Romain Bardet attacked. History shows that no one can follow him if he goes full gas and much will depend on whether Nairo Quintana has improved enough to do so. We doubt it and if he again rides away, Froome should be strong enough to maintain his lead on the descent.

 

If Froome can’t drop Quintana, the door is open for counterattacks. That makes Richie Porte a very strong candidate. In the last four years, the Australian has probably been the third best climber in the world which he recently proved at the Dauphiné where he matched Froome in the first mountain stage. There are some doubts about his ability to hold on for three weeks but at this point in the race he should be strong. He likes the heat and claims to be better than ever. He seemed to be at ease in stage 5 and as he has lost a bit of time, he will probably get a bit more freedom than his rivals.

 

If the favourites have a defensive approach or if Froome is unable to drop his rivals, it could also come down to a sprint from a select group. In that case, Alejandro Valverde is the favourite. In this kind of sprint, only Julian Alaphilippe can realistically beat him but we doubt that the Frenchman will be able survive. Dan Martin may challenge him but usually no one should be able to match Valverde in a slightly uphill kick like this. His form was uncertain when he started the race but he has been his usual consistent self and seems to be close to his best. He won’t be able to follow Froome and Quintana in the big attacks but if it comes down to a sprint, he will be the man to beat.

 

As said, Dan Martin can potentially challenge him. The Irishman has trained a lot on longer climbs and that pays off. He is climbing better than ever and he wasn’t far off the best at the Dauphiné. In this race, he seems to be at ease and we expect him to be up there with the very best on the Col d’Aspin. He has an outside chance to beat Valverde in a sprint but he could also be the one to exploit the tactical battle with one of his trademark attacks. Due to his poor time trialling skills, he won’t be too heavily marked.

 

Romain Bardet is one of the most aggressive riders in the peloton and he will definitely grab the opportunity if it’s there. He has been climbing excellently all year, most recently at the Dauphiné, and his form is clearly great. He was the one to take the initiative yesterday and if there’s a tactical hesitation, he will be keen to make a move. His great descending skills should help him stay clear on the descent.

 

Finally, we will point to a few more breakaway riders. Movistar are here for the GC but part of the plan is always to have riders in the breakaway. They can play a role later in the race but very often they are given the freedom to chase a stage win. That opens the door for riders like Winner Anacona, Ion Izagirre and Jesus Herrada. They are all among the best climbers here and they proved their great form in stage 5 where they made the race explode to pieces. Izagirre and Herrada are powerful on the flats which is important in the early part of the stage and they are both fast in a sprint, especially Herrada. Anacona is more of a pure climber but he is great at hitting the right break and if he is there, he is likely to be the best climber.

 

It’s no surprise that Ilnur Zakarin hasn’t got much attention. After all, this is his first race since his bad crash at the Giro and he is mainly here to prepare for the Olympics. However, his form doesn’t seem to be terrible and he was not that far off the mark in the first hilly tests. Katusha would love to have their Russian star win a stage here and he probably has the freedom to attack. Even though he is not at 100%, he will be one of the best climbers if he joins the right break.

 

Orica-BikeExchange haven’t have much success yet but they have one of the best cards for this kind of breakaway stage. Last year Ruben Plaza won stages at both the Tour and the Vuelta and he is free to take his chances here. He has been riding at the back of the field until now, saving energy for his key days, so his form is uncertain. He usually gets better and better so this stage may come a bit too early but he is very likely to give it a try. When at 100%, he is a great climber for his kind of mountain and he will be strong on the flats in the first part of the race. He has tons of experience when it comes to picking the right group.

 

Finally, we will point to Tony Martin. The German is preparing for the Olympic time trial so he has been working a lot on his climbing. The result is evident as he climbed excellently at the Dauphiné. This is a pretty good stage for him as he has the power to attack from the start and there is no guarantee that he will be up against pure climbers. Like Cummings did in the Dauphiné, he can anticipate the big climb and if he has the legs he had in the Dauphiné, he won’t be easy to bring back.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Rui Costa (breakaway)

Other winner candidates: Stephen Cummings, Tom Dumoulin (both from a breakaway)

Outsiders: Chris Froome, Richie Porte, Alejandro Valverde, Daniel Martin, Romain Bardet

Jokers: Ion Izagirre, Jesus Herrada, Winner Anacona, Ilnur Zakarin, Ruben Plaza, Tony Martin, Stef Clement (all from a breakaway)