While Steve Cummings confirmed his status as probably the best stage hunter in the peloton, the GC favourites opted for a ceasefire in the first mountain stage of this year’s Tour de France. The Pyrenees get progressively harder and they will have another chance to test each other in the tough stage 8 but with Arcalis looming on Sunday, there is a chance that it will again be a day without any initiative from the main candidates for the final victory in Paris.

 

The course

The design of the Pyrenean stages always vary a bit but almost every year there’s a big mountain stage with several mythical mountains and a downhill finish in one of the well-known Pyrenean cities. Very often climbs like the Col du Tourmalet, Col du Peyresourde and Col d’Aspin play a prominent role in that stage. Things won’t be any different in 2016 as stage 8 will send the riders up both the Tourmalet and Peyresourde on a brutally tough day that includes a total of four tough climbs. Coming one day after the first clash in the mountains and one day before the first major mountaintop finish, the tough stage may not be won by one of the favourites but it will play a big role in creating fatigue and potentially reveal weakness from one or more overall contenders.

 

The 184km stage will start in one of the most well-known Tour de France cities. Almost every year, the peloton visits the Pyrenean city of Pau which will send the riders off for stage 8. The city is located in a flat part of the country on the outskirts of the mountains and the first part of the stage will see the riders travel along flat roads in a southeasterly direction. They will have to make the most of the easy terrain as there will be no chance to recover later in the stage.

 

After 67km of racing, the riders will contest the intermediate sprint which is slightly uphill at an average of 3.1% for the final kilometre. Right after the sprint, they will turn east to head up the hardest climb in the Pyrenees, the legendary category HC mountain of Col du Tourmalet. It averages 7.4% over 19km and is a brutal, regular beast with a rather constant gradient. The descent leads straight to the bottom of category 2 climb of Hourquette d’Ancizan (8.2km, 4.9%).

 

After the descent, there is a very short valley section before the riders will tackle the category 1 climb of Col de Val Louron-Azet which averages 6.8% over 10.7km. The gradient is slightly deceptive as the first three kilometres are rather easy but from there, it rarely drops below 7%. The top comes with 36km to go and this final section is either uphill or downhill. The descent leads to the bottom of the famous category 1 climb of Col de Peyresourde which averages 7.8% over 7.1km. It’s a very regular climb with a constant gradient of 7-9%.

 

From the top, only 15.5km remain and they are almost all downhill. The descent is not very technical and ends at the entrance of Bagneres-de-Luchon with 2km to go. A 180-degree turn just after the 2km to go mark will be followed by no less than four turns inside the final kilometre which is completely flat. The final corner comes just 180m from the line on a 6m wide road.

 

Bagneres-de-Luchon has often been visited by the race in recent years. It last happened in 2014 when Michael Rogers rode away from Thomas Voeckler, Vasil Kiryienka, Jose Serpa and Cyril Gautier on the descent of Port de Bales to win his first Tour stage. In 2012, Voeckler was again part of the action as he rode to a solo victory from a breakaway on a day when the riders also tackled the Peyresourde in the finale. Voeckler was also the best on the memorable stage in 2010 when Andy Schleck dropped his chain and Alberto Contador gained important time on his arch rival. Before that stage, the last visit was in 1998 when Rodolfo Massi won a mountain stage.

 

Bagneres-de-Luchon is also a regular finish at the Route du Sud, most recently in 2015 when Alberto Contador dropped Nairo Quintana on the descent from the Port de Bales to ride to a solo victory. Voeckler won a four-rider sprint in 2013 and Jurgen Van Goolen took a solo win in 2011. Two years earlier Christophe Riblon was faster than Tomasz Marczynski in a two-rider sprint.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

There was no place to hide on another hot day in the Pyrenees but the riders were lucky to escape the forecasted thunderstorms. It will be more of the same in stage 8. Saturday will be another brutally hot day as the maximum temperature at the finish will be 32 degrees. There will be bright sunshine for most of the day but late in the afternoon, there is a 40% chance of a shower.

 

There will be a light wind from a northerly direction which means that the riders will have a cross-tailwind in the flat first part. It will be a cross-headwind on the Tourmalet and the descent and a cross-tailwind on the next two climb. It will be a crosswind on the Col de Peyresourde and on the descent. In the final 2km, it will mainly be a tailwind.

 

The favourites

Four WorldTour stage races in 2016 – four stage wins! We pointed to Stephen Cummings as our second biggest favourite yesterday but we had not expected him to be that strong. He has won stages in the Tour and the Vuelta in the past and this year he has won stages in all the WorldTour races he has done. However, this was probably his greatest ride. To ride away from Nibali and Navarro on the Col d’Aspin after having gone full gas for several kilometres on the flat was impressive and it confirms his status as one of the best stage hunters in the world.

 

It’s a remarkable turnaround from his time at Sky and BMC where he was an anonymous domestique who only showed his class occasionally. He looked for freedom to go for breakaway success and probably accepted a lower wage when he left one of the biggest teams in the world. The decision paid off and he must now be one of the hottest topics for future recruitment plans. His example should be inspiration for a lot of riders.

 

For the GC riders, it ended as a bit of a ceasefire. It was always doubtful whether they would make any moves on the Col d’Aspin but we were still a bit surprised that no one even tried to make it hard, at least to test Contador, Pinot and Barguil who all showed signs of weakness in Massi Central. However, as soon FDJ disappeared from the front and no one took off the initiative, it became clear that it was another ceasefire among the main contenders. The strong headwind and the fear for the next few stages made it a relatively easy day and the stage didn’t reveal much about to true form of the favourites.

 

Nonetheless, we got an interesting piece of information: Pinot’s poor ride in stage 5 was no fluke. For the second year in a row, the Frenchman cracked in the first mountain stage and as it is his second bad ride in a row, he is unlikely to get back into podium contention. It seems that he has trouble handling the pressure. He has been great all year, just like he was in 2015. However, as soon as he gets to his big target, he fails to deliver. The heat may have played a role – he is famously known for his preference for cold and rainy conditions – but as the signs were already there in the Dauphiné, it’s unlikely to be the full explanation. In 2014, the pre-race expectations were less and back then he delivered a magnificent performance. Maybe it’s time for him to give the Giro a shot to regain confidence under less pressure. Luckily, FDJ still have an in-form Sebastien Reichenbach who could very well be a revelation in this race.

 

In general, it was a bad day for the Frenchmen. In stage 5, Warren Barguil showed clear signs of wakness and today it happened again. Like Pinot, he showed confidence on the lower slopes but when Sky upped the pace in the finale, the Giant rider was dropped. He made it back but it is definitely a worrying sign. The Frenchman was the pre-race favourite for the white jersey but now we will point to Louis Meintjes as the main candidate. The South African looks extremely strong and is a proven grand tour contender. He is a bit of a diesel engine and while the likes of Julian Alaphilippe and Adam Yates probably lacks the consistency, Meintjes should only get stronger and stronger.

 

For Yates, it was a bit of a disaster that his strong attack was ruined by the collapse of the inflatable. Luckily, he seems to have escaped the incident without major injuries but he could very well pay a price tomorrow. It may even have cost him the yellow jersey. At the time of writing, there has been no decision about when the time will officially be taken so it’s unclear if he will gain those seconds he had at the 3km to go mark. If so, he will move into second overall and as Greg Van Avermaet has little chance to defend his position tomorrow, the Brit could move into the race lead if he can keep up with the best.

 

The fear for tomorrow’s stage was one of the reasons for the slow pace on the final climb but we can expect more action in stage 8. The Pyrenees get progressively harder and Saturday’s stage with its four big climbs is simply brutal. However, it’s a downhill finish and everybody will be wary of stage 9 which is where everybody expects Chris Froome to make his first big attack. That could lead to some conservative racing again and we don’t expect that Froome or Quintana will make a move.

 

Nonetheless, the race should be a lot more selective. Such a tough stage will always do a lot of damage and it’s a day when you can lose the Tour. Today massive differences could never be made but we will expect Movistar and Sky to put their rivals under a bit more pressure, especially on the final two climbs. They won’t necessarily set their captains up for attacks but a solid, steady pace can do reveal chinks in the armour for some contenders and maybe send Contador completely out of GC contention.

 

As we don’t expect Sky or Movistar to go for the stage win, it should be another day for a breakaway. It’s a good stage for Daniel Martin and Alejandro Valverde but Etixx-QuickStep don’t have the team to take control and Movistar are here for Valverde. BMC know that Van Avermaet won’t defend yellow so they won’t do too much. Everybody knows this so it will be another very fast start with numerous attacks. Like today it will probably take a long time for the break to be formed and it could again be a very big group. Unfortunately, it’s a flat start so the climbers are at a disadvantage when it comes to getting into the break and it takes a bit of luck to make it. On the other hand, you need to have excellent climbing legs to win here. Luck is needed to be in contention but only a great climber can win.

 

When the break has gone clear, BMC will take control but they probably won’t do anything to bring the break back. Instead, it will probably be up to Sky or Movistar to set the pace and make sure that the gap doesn’t get too big. On the final two climbs, they will probably try to put their rivals under pressure but only two things can really prevent a breakaway win. If one of the key contenders is dropped, they may want to ride him out of contention and this could spell the end for the break. Secondly, the group could contain a dangerous rider as it was the case today with Nibali and if that’s the case, the break could be brought back.

 

However, we will put our money on another escapee to take the win. Yesterday we pointed to Rui Costa as our favourite and the Portuguese gave it a try. He was in the 12-rider group which spent the first 40km in the lead. Unfortunately, Sagan and Cavendish were there and as Etixx chased hard for the green jersey, the group was brought back. Then the former world champion had nothing left and he took it easy in the finale, losing more than 18 minutes.

 

Tomorrow he will definitely try again and it’s another good stage for him. Hewanted to focus on the GC but his team wanted him to target a stage win. The parties agreed that the main goal was a stage but that he didn’t have to lose time deliberately. However, the discussion has now become much easier as Costa had a bad day in Massif Central and he is now out of the GC battle. He can focus fully on a stage win.

 

In 2013, Costa won two stages in the Tour and he has always been a master in winning from breakaways. He is strong on the flats and even though he is not a pure climber, he is still one of the best in the mountains. He rode poorly in stage 5 but his form can’t be bad. After all he was good in the Tour de Suisse. He claims to have suffered in the heat and it is definitely true that he has always been a rider for the rain. He may get a shower in tomorrow’s finale. Today’s stage suited him better but he is definitely one of the biggest favourites for this one too.

 

Yesterday we also pointed to Ruben Plaza but the Spanish veteran didn’t make it into the break. Orica-BikeExchange are here to win stages and they have selected Plaza to go on his trademark attacks in the mountains. Last he proved that he is one of the best in the world for this when he won stages in both the Vuelta and the Tour and especially his performance in his home grand tour must serve as inspiration. In the penultimate stage, he completed a marvellous solo ride on a day with several big mountains and this stage is pretty similar. He is a bit of diesel engine and he loves a stage like this one. Furthermore, he has the power on the flat to join the right break. His form is a bit uncertain as he has been saving energy until now but he arrived with Yates in today’s stage which shows that he is not going too badly. If he gets into his rhythm, Plaza will be difficult to stop in a stage like this.

 

After his excellent performance in the Tour de Suisse, Jarlinson Pantano was aiming for the GC here but a day in Massif Central took him out of contention. However, he bounced back in today’s stage where he attacked on the final climb and was part of the Costa group in the early part of the race. In Switzerland, he showed how much his climbing has improved and he is comfortable on the long climbs at altitude. Furthermore, he is pretty strong on the flats and has a very fast sprint. Obviously, the Tour is at a different level compared to the Tour de Suisse but last year he was not far off the mark. This year he will be strong enough to finish off a breakaway ride.

 

If it comes down to a battle of the GC riders, Alejandro Valverde must be the favourite. As said, we don’t expect the main favourites to attack but if the break is caught, it’s because it has been a fast, selective day. In that case, Movistar and Sky are likely to go hard on the final climb and it could very well come down to a sprint from a small group. Valverde seems to be in pretty good form so there is a big chance that he will be there. Unless Julian Alaphilippe has survived which is unlikely, no one is going to beat the Spaniard in a sprint.

 

The only rider with a real chance to do so is Daniel Martin. The Irishman has trained a lot on longer climbs and that pays off. He is climbing better than ever and he wasn’t far off the best at the Dauphiné. In this race, he seems to be at ease and we expect him to be up there with the very best in the finale. He has an outside chance to beat Valverde in a sprint but his best chance will be to do what he did today: launch an attack over the top of the final climb. Due to his poor time trialling skills, he won’t be too heavily marked.

 

Romain Bardet will have similar plans. Today he probably planned to make a move as Domenico Pozzovivo’s move didn’t make sense otherwise. Tomorrow’s harder stage suits him a lot better and he will be keen to exploit the tactical battle. He is one of the best descenders in the peloton so if he can get a gap over the top, he won’t be easy to bring back.

 

The same goes for Adam Yates. The Brit followed Martin in the finale of today’s stage and he is eyeing yellow, white and a stage win. Until now he has been at ease on the climbs and even though he should be less comfortable in the high mountains, he has still proved that he has what it takes to match the best in this terrain. He has the explosiveness to make a late attack, is a good descender and is fast in a sprint. No one really fears him in the long team so he won’t be marked too much. Of course much will depend on his recovery from today’s crash but if he is feeling ok, it’s a good stage for him.

 

Finally, we will point to a few more breakaway candidates. Today Domenico Pozzovivo attacked on the final climb and stayed away for a few kilometres, probably trying to set Bardet up for an attack. Tomorrow he may try to attack from afar in a stage that suits him a lot better. He is definitely not at 100% but his form is not that bad as he was up there in both stages 5 and 7. He is one of the best climbers in the race so the main challenge will be to join the break. That won’t be easy in a flat start but if things come together, he can win this stage.

 

Yesterday we already pointed to Ion Izagirre and Winner Anacona and we will do so again. Movistar always want riders up the road in these stage and Izagirre and Anacona are among their best cards. They may be used in a tactical game later in the stage but very often these domestiques get a chance to go for a stage win. Izagirre is strong on the flats and so has the best chance to make it into the break but Anacona is a better climber for the big mountains.

 

IAM have more cards to play. Stef Clement may be known as a TT specialist but he is actually an outstanding climber. In the Dauphiné, he was already climbing with the best and today he arrived with the favourites. His main goal is to win a stage and he has the power on the flats to get clear in this kind of stage.

 

George Bennett is less powerful so like Pozzovivo he needs more luck to catch the break. However, the Kiwi has really improved his climbing in 2016 and LottoNL-Jumbo have done nothing to hide that they want him to go on the attack. He is a pure climber so he likes the long climbs. If he has the legs he had in California anf the Dauphiné he can do well here.

 

Astana will probably ask one or two riders to go on the attack. Today Nibali gave it a go and tomorrow it could be Tanel Kangert. The Estonian rode the Giro so his form was uncertain but he has been riding solidlu in the first part of the race. He is a bit of a diesel engine who loves this kind of gruelling stage and he has the skills to escape on the flats too.

 

Finally, it’s a stage to Bagneres-du-Luchon so one has to mention Thomas Voeckler. The Frenchman has won here on more occasions and even though he is no longer the rider he once was, he is still very strong. At the Route du Sud, he was one of the best in the queen stage so the form is very good at the moment. He knows how to hit the right break and he can suffer more than most in this kind of terrain.

 

UPDATE: The times was taken with 3km to go so Yates will indeed start the race in second overall

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Rui Costa (breakaway)

Other winner candidates: Ruben Plaza, Jarlinson Pantano (both from a breakaway

Outsiders: Alejandro Valverde, Daniel Martin, Romain Bardet, Adam Yates

Jokers: Domenico Pozzovivo, Ilnur Zakarin, Ion Izagirre, Winner Anacona, Stef Clement, George Bennett, Tanel Kangert, Thomas Voeckler (all from a breakaway)