Chris Froome surprised everybody by attacking where you least expected it and dealt his rivals a major blow even before we have got to ‘Froome Day’. The first major summit finish in the race has usually been the scene of a dominant display of power and he will look to repeat that performance on the legendary climb to Andorra-Arcalis in what is set to be the first big battle between the best climbers.

 

The course

During the Armstrong years, ASO gradually made the visit to the first mountain range a bit easier. The American often crushed the opposition in the first mountain stage while Jan Ullrich slowly rode himself into form. To avoid too big time gaps early in the race and keep the excitement alive, the organizers tried to save the hardest stages for the final part of the race.

 

In recent years, that trend has changed. Last year the riders also visited the Pyrenees first and with two mountaintop finishes and a tough mountain stage in between, there was definitely nothing easy about the first mountain stages of the 2015 race. This year there will also be no chance to ease the legs into the race. The riders have already spent two days in the high mountains but there will be no chance to rest yet. The Pyrenean adventure will end with the hardest stage in the triptych as the riders will return to the famous uphill finish at Andorra Arcalis that has been a regular feature in the race. With four tough climbs preceding a mountaintop finish at high 2240m of altitude, stage 9 is one of the hardest of the race and it will give another firm indication of the climbing hierarchy on the eve of the first rest day.

 

The 184.5km will start in the Spanish city of Vielha Val d’Aran and end in Andorra Arcalis and it has one of those starts that everybody fears. After just 5.3km of light climbing, the riders will hit the bottom of the category 1 Port de la Bonaigua (13.7km, 6.1%) which will make sure that things explode right from the start. The sprinters will be pleased to know that there will be a chance to rejoin the peloton during the 30km of flat valley roads that follow after the descent. Then it’s time for the category 1 Port del Canto (19km, 5.4%) which has often been visited by the Volta a Catalunya, as the riders continue in a southwesterly direction.

 

After the descent, the riders will head in a northerly direction for the final 80km of the stage and they are almost all uphill. A long, gradual ascent will lead to the intermediate sprint in the capital of Andorra-la-Vielle. The sprint itself will be flat but it comes at the end of several kilometres of gradual climbing. Then it is straight onto the steep category 2 climb of Cote de la Comella (4.2km, 8.2%) which is a very regular climb. There will be almost no descent and just a short flat section before the riders get to the bottom of the category 1 Col de Beixalis (6.4km, 8.5%) which has a very steep first half and an easier final 2km.

 

The top comes with 27.5km to go and leads straight onto the descent. Then a short slightly uphill valley section will bring the riders to the bottom of the final category HC climb. It averages 7.2% over 10.1km and is a very regular ascent. The first part is the hardest but in general there is not much variation on a climb that will bring the riders up to more than 2000m of altitude. There are numerous hairpin bends in the penultimate kilometre before the riders get to the final kilometre which follows an almost straight 6.5m wide road. The final light bend comes with 250m to go.

 

Arcalis was last visited in 2009 when Brice Feillu emerged as the strongest from a breakaway while Rinaldo Nocentini rode himself into yellow. Alberto Contador attacked from the group of favourites and reached the finish alone to prove that he was the strongest rider in the race. In 1997, Jan Ullrich laid the foundations for his overall win by riding to a dominant solo win.

 

The climb has often been used by the Vuelta too. In 2007, Denis Menchov won a sprint from a small group of favourites while Francisco Mancebo launched a late attack to win the stage in 2005. Jose Maria Jimenez won a mountain time trial in 2001 while Roberto Laiseka took the victory in 2000. Igor Gonzalez de Galdeano took a solo win in 1999.

 

The Volta a Catalunya has also visited the climb. Denis Menchov won a mountain TT here in 2007 and Carlos Castano took a solo win one year earlier. Inigo Cuesta won another time trial in 2005 like Miguel Angel Martin Perdiguero did in 2004.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

It was another brutally hot day in the Pyrenees and there will be very little hope that things will be better for the final chapter in the triptych. Sunday is forecasted to be another sunny day with a maximum temperature at the finish of 27 degrees. However, like in the previous stages, there is a risk of thunderstorms in the finale. Tomorrow the chance is 75%.

 

There will be a light wind from a southwesterly and westerly direction, this means that the riders will have a crosswind or a cross-tailwind in the first part of the stage. After the descent from the Port del Canto, they will have a crosswind and then it will be a headwin d on the final two climbs with a crosswind in the section in between.

 

The favourites

For years, Chris Froome has had the reputation of being a poor descender. It has always been completely unjust as the Brit has never shown any signs of weakness on the descents. He matched Alberto Contador whenever the Spaniard made his attacks in the 2013 Tour and in fact he has never been dropped on a descent.

 

However, it is certainly true that Froome has never been on the offensive of the descents. He doesn’t excel in the terrain like Vincenzo Nibali, Alejandro Valverde and Romain Bardet. He has always been on the defensive and made sure that he didn’t lose any ground.

 

Hence, it probably came as a major surprise for everyone when he took off just after the top of the Col de Peyresourde. Just as it looked like status quo between the biggest favourites and a sprint win and yellow jersey for Alejandro Valvede, the defending champion caught everybody off-guard. Of course it was not a technical descent where he would never have made such a coup but he showed great progress in the discipline by constantly gaining ground on a strong descender like Valverde.

 

The move may not have been planned but it was definitely a smart one and it shows that Froome is a great tactician. Last year he picked out La Pierre Saint-Martin as the place to win the race because he knew that he could use the steep lower section to get a gap and then use his bigger power to gain time on the tiy climbers in the flatter section near the top. Today he knew that the descent was more about power than technical skills so if he could just get a small advantage, his rouleur skills would again come in handy.

 

The day was a hugely frustrating one for Nairo Quintana. The Colombian had one big goal for the first week: to get to ‘Froome Day’ – the first big mountaintop finish – without suffering any time loss. At the top of the Peyresoude, he was just 15.5km from achieving his goal but he was caught out when he least expected it. Froome is hard to beat in the time trials and on the climbs but today he proved that he can make use of every terrain to beat his rivals.

 

Another important aspect of today’s stage was the demonstration of force from the Sky team. Vasil Kiryienka whittled the group down to 40 riders on the Tourmalet and then an outstanding Mikel Landa silenced his critics by singlehandedly keeping the Pinot-Majka group under control and even almost bringing them back before Mikel Nieve took over. The latter again confirmed his great form after his impressive ride in Massif Central and Geraint Thomas is also riding solidly. Wout Poels doesn’t seem to be at 100% but that wasn’t the case in 2015 either and back then he was one of the best in the final week.

 

However, the biggest support is Sergio Henao. Those who have regularly read our previews, know that we have long regarded the Colombian as one of the greatest climbing talents. A lack of consistency, a big injury and his abnormal blood values – which have a natural explanation – have made his career pretty rocky but today he really proved what class he has. He had a mechanical in the finale but was impressive on the climbs where he was clearly one of the best. The big question is whether he can maintain his level for three weeks but as things stand now, Froome has a rider that can take over the role of Richie Porte. Will it be another 1-2 for Sky in Andorra as it has already been the case in the first summit finish in 2013 and 2015?

 

At the same time, the Movistar rode poorly. After their strong performance in Massif Central, only Ion Izagirre and an outstanding Nelso Oliveira lived up to expectations. Daniel Moreno again suffered on the long climbs as he usually does and Winner Anacona is far from his best. Movistar want to make the race hard and uncomfortable for Sky but that seems to be impossible. Quintana’s only way to win the race is by being the best climber in the race.

 

Until now, we have not had any real indications of the climbing hierarchy. Yesterday ended as a ceasefire and today Froome’s and Quintana’s attacks on the Peyresourde were clearly only halfhearted accelerations. They wanted to keep their powder dry for the first big summit finish. Sunday is the day that will put everybody in their place and reveal who are the best climbers in the race.

 

Today Sky probably didn’t have the intention to go for the stage win but the presence of Thibaut Pinot in the break forced them to ride hard as they didn’t want to bring the Frenchman back into GC contention. That meant that they suddenly got their stage win a bit earlier than expected. Going into the race, their plan was probably to set Froome up for his usual stage win on ‘Froome Day’ but now they may have less incentive to do so.

 

That could open the door for a breakaway and today’s result definitely gives the attackers a better chance. However, we still believe that Sky will go for the win. Froome has already been very ambitious and goes for the win whenever he sees the opportunity. He knows that he is usually the strongest in the first week of the race while he has often faded in the final week. This year he aims to peak a little later and hopes to be fresher in the Alps but he has no guarantees. He needs to make the most of this point in the race and with valuable bonus seconds on the menu, a rest day and two easier stages coming up, it would be stupid not to try to bring the break back. Today Sky proved that they can do so if they want.

 

Movistar and Quintana had the pre-race plan to follow wheels in the Pyrenees and then try to make the difference in the Alps. After today’s blow, Quintana may want to strike back immediately and so they may want to go for the win in a stage that passes through the team’s home country. In any case, they want the race to be hard so they may contribute to the pace-setting too. That makes it even more likely that the break will be brought back.

 

However, only those two teams will be strong enough to control the stage. It’s a brutal start to the stage and that means that the early break will be very strong. In these stages, the best climbers simply ride away and this makes it much easier to predict who’s going to be there. This will set the scene for a very tough and aggressive start and the early break will probably be established on the first climb where Sky will try to control things. This will make things tough for the gruppetto and it is one of those days when the time cut presents a big danger for riders that are dropped from the start.

 

As said, we expect Sky to control the stage and make sure that the gap doesn’t get too big. Movistar will probably lend a hand on the second, third and fourth climb to make things hard. Furthermore, there are lots of valley roads so it will be easier to bring a group of climbers back. Hence, we expect it to come down to a battle between the GC riders on the final climb.

 

Sky will probably set the pace for most of the climb and that will make it a gradual elimination. As said, Quintana is afraid of Froome at this point in the race so his main goal is to try to follow the Brit. We expect it to be an elimination race until Henao goes full gas and sets Froome up for his attack. That’s when we will see whether Quintana can follow the race leader.

 

In the past, he hasn’t been able to match Froome in the first summit finish but this year he has trained to be able to follow the impressive accelerations. Furthermore, he has clearly been climbing better than ever in the spring and it is evident that he has taken another big step in his development. This year he has a much better chance than ever before and the headwind will give him an even bigger chance.

 

Nonetheless, we still believe Froome to be the strongest. In the past, Quintana has not even been close to Froome in the first mountain stage and even though he is closer now, it’s a big gap to close. Froome is a lot more explosive than Quintana and if he gets a gap on this kind of climb, the combination of relatively easy gradients and a headwind will make it difficult for the tiny Quintana to get back. Until now, Froome has appeared to be at ease and he is brimming with confidence. Even if Quintana can match him, he will win the stage as he is faster in a sprint. On several occasions, he has proved that he is the best climber in the race and we expect him to do so again in Andorra.

 

Nairo Quintana is the second big favourite but to win the stage, he needs to get rid of Froome. He can’t match the Brit in a sprint so he simply needs to be the best. As said, his approach is probably defensive so he may not even try. On the other hand, he won’t hold anything back if he feels that he is the strongest. This year he has been the best climber in most of the spring races and he is obviously at a different level compared to previous years. On paper, the altitude should benefit him so it won’t be impossible for Quintana to finally beat Froome in a mountain stage in the first week.

 

It’s been proved on numerous occasions. Richie Porte is the third best climber in the world. It is definitely not a coincidence that Froome and Porte have made it a 1-2 in the first mountain stage in both 2013 and 2015. This year he will get his first chance to try to beat his friend and former captain and in the Dauphiné he proved that he can follow the Brit. He claims to be stronger than ever and until now he has been riding extremely well, showing no signs of weakness at all.

 

Porte is still frustrated by the time loss but he seems to have regained morale and his strong riding must have boosted his confidence. He may fade later in the race as his fragile health and inconsistency are the issues that could cost him but for now he should be strong. He is the only rider with a chance to follow Froome and Quintana and if he can do so, he is in with a great chance. He has lost a bit of time so if Froome and Quintana watch each other, he will be free to attack. If Porte and Froome can drop Quintana, it’s an easy choice for them to work together and give Porte the stage win. The Australian can win this stage from numerous scenarios if he is as strong as we expect him to be.

 

Daniel Martin can’t match the best climbers but he isn’t far off. He has moved to Andorra – which means that he is riding on home soil – and his training on longer climbs has really paid off. This year he has been climbing excellently and he wasn’t far off the best at the Dauphiné where he finished on the podium. He has shown no signs of weakness in this race yet and as he is a poor time triallist, he is not a big threat for the favourites. If it turns into a tactical battle between Froome and Quintana, he will be ready to grab his chance and use one of his trademark accelerations in the finale. Furthermore, the headwind could make the race less selective and if he can hang on, he is very likely to win a sprint.

 

Honestly, we can’t really imagine that the winner won’t be one of those four riders if it comes down to a battle between the favourites so the rest of our picks will be breakaway candidates. As said, Sky have their stage win and the break will undoubtedly be very strong. That makes it possible that a group will stay away.

 

Thibaut Pinot is an obvious pick. The Frenchman showed great character and morale in today’s stage and he will definitely try again tomorrow. He lost a lot of time today so he will now get more freedom and his legs seem to be getting better and better. No one can deny that he is one of the best climbers in this race and he is a master in winning from breakaways. At the Dauphiné, he was not at 100% either and he still managed to beat an in-form Romain Bardet in the queen stage. He has his eyes on the mountains jersey and a win here would bring him a long way.

 

Today he had Rafal Majka for company and the Pole also has his eyes on the polka-dot jersey. That means that he will probably attack again. He doesn’t seem to be at 100% but the plan has always been for him to get better and better. In the last two years he has been flying in his second grand tour and he could be so again in this Tour. Today he was not at Pinot’s level but things can quickly change. Majka could very well take a stage win in the Pyrenees for the third year in a row.

 

Domenico Pozzovivo has not been at his best since his horror crash at last year’s Giro. He is clearly not at 100% in this race either but he is not riding poorly. He has been with the GC riders for a long time in the big mountain stages and with an uphill start, he finally has a real chance to join the break. He may be asked to stay with Bardet but if he gets the freedom, he is strong enough to win this stage.

 

Bauke Mollema is looking strong so Trek will be focused on the GC. However, they have three climbers to support their leader so they will probably ride aggressively too. This could open the door for Frank Schleck who has been riding really well until now. He is coming back from injury and will progress throughout the race. He has lost time so he is not a big danger and last year his stage win in the Vuelta queen stage proves that he still has what it takes. The uphill start will make it possible for him to join the break.

 

Movistar always want riders in the breaks in these stages so they will attack from the start. With such a tough climb from the beginning, only one of their best can make it. That opens the door for Ion Izagirre. His main goal will be to work for his captains but very often this kind of tactic has given Movistar domestiques the chance to go for a stage win. Izagirre is not a pure climber but this year he has been climbing really well on long climb which has usually been his weakness. He was strong today so if he gets the opportunity he will go for it.

 

After a bad start, Jarlinson Pantano is getting better. The Colombian is very aggressive and has lost enough time to be given some freedom. In the Tour de Suisse, he proved how much he has progressed and he doesn’t seem to be far off that mark. As a Colombian, he will be comfortable at the altitude. Last year he was riding well in the breakaway but this year he should be strong enough to finish it off.

 

LottoNL-Jumbo’s main goal is a stage win so George Bennett should be given the freedom to attack. The Kiwi has always been a talented climber but this year he has really stepped up his level. He was great in California and solid in the Dauphiné and today he showed that he has carried his good form to the Tour. Last year he was close to winning the queen stage at the Vuelta and he would love to try his hand here. The uphill start definitely suits him.

 

Finally, we will point to Daniel Navarro. We had some expectations for him for this race as he has been very strong this spring. He seemed to suffer a lot in the first week though and so dropped out of GC contention. Nonetheless, he showed signs of progress in stage 7 where he finished third. With a long flat section, that stage didn’t really suit him and he had used too much energy on the flats to be fully competitive on the climbs. This stage is much better for him and on paper he should be one of the best climbers in this race.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Chris Froome

Other winner candidates: Nairo Quintana, Richie Porte

Outsiders: Daniel Martin, Thibaut Pinot (breakaway), Rafal Majka (breakaway), Domenico Pozzovivo (breakaway)

Jokers: Frank Schleck, Ion Izagirre, Jarlinson Pantano, George Bennett, Daniel Navarro (all from a breakaway)