The Giro d’Italia is barely over but it is already time to turn the attention to the Tour de France. The month of June is loaded with short stage races that mainly serve for the riders to prepare for La Grande Boucle and prove that they deserve a spot in the line-up. For some riders – mainly those who will use the Tour de Suisse as their most important preparation race – the lumpy Tour de Luxembourg is the first chance to get back into action and rediscover the racing legs.

 

While most of the cycling world is still looking back at three weeks of great racing in Italy, the many riders who had a big training block in May, are getting ready for one of the most important parts of their season. The month of June is one gradual build-up to the big climax at the Tour de France in July and from now on, the race calendar has been carefully designed with this purpose in mind. Apart from the National Championships, there’s barely a single major one-day race on the menu and instead the schedule is loaded with one-week stage races that serve as the perfect preparation for the biggest race in the world.

 

Some riders eased back into racing at the Tour of California, Belgium Tour, the Tour of Norway or some of the French one-day races but for many, the return to racing comes at the Dauphiné or the Tour de Suisse. However, the riders to will head to Switzerland in a few weeks, there’s another chance to ease back into competition before they take on one of the hardest one-day races on the calendar. The Tour de Luxembourg is a great race to get back into action, with the race offering a mixed course that is not overly hard and a nice and relaxed atmosphere.

 

Luxembourg has a great cycling history and so it is no wonder that the national tour is an old one. It was first held in 1935 and apart from a small break during World War II, it has been held every year since then. In the early years, it was dominated by the local riders before the Frenchmen and Belgian started to make an impact. However, since Arie den Hartog won the race in 1964, it has been a lot more international and in the last few decades, the winners have come from a large variety of countries. Interestingly, it was the scene of one of Lance Armstrong’s first big victories after his comeback from cancer as he won the race in 1998 before going on to finish fourth at the Vuelta.

 

Due to its long history, the Tour de Luxembourg has a high place in the UCI hierarchy. It is a 2.HC race and even though it hasn’t been able to attract a large number of WorldTour teams recently, its status has never been under threat. When the WorldTour was introduced in 2005, the organizers were initially part of the plans to merge the Tours of Luxembourg, Belgium and the Netherlands into a major Tour de Benelux. Those plans ultimately resulted in the Eneco Tour but the Belgian and Luxembourg organizers preferred to keep their own races alive as separate events and the Eneco Tour doesn’t even visit Luxembourg.

 

A few years ago, the organizers made the experiment to move the race to late June but that was no success. The third week of the month is one of the busiest of the year and it was always going to be a failure to have the race run alongside the Tours of Switzerland and Slovenia, the Route du Sud and the Ster ZLM Tour. Now it is back in the perfect spot just after the Giro d’Italia where it gets almost all the attention from the cycling world.

 

Luxembourg is a small county so it’s pretty impressive that the organizers can have a five-day race. Of course the size of the country means that there isn’t much room for experiments. Hence, many of the stage finales are used almost every year and the race follows a pretty fixed formula. The very explosive prologue in the capital which sees the riders power up a cobbled climb in one of the most iconic races in the calendar, is followed by a mix of sprint and lumpy stages that suit strong sprinters or Ardennes specialists. Luxembourg is by no means flat but it has no major mountains and so it has always been a great race for fast classics riders.

 

Last year it marked a bit of a comeback for Linus Gerdemann who took his second overall win in Luxembourg by riding to a solo victory in the queen stage. The Roompot pair of Marc De Maar and Huub Duijn completed the podium.

 

The course

As said, there’s not much room for variation in a small country like Luxembourg so the race usually follows a fixed pattern. The iconic evening prologue – for many a real indication of the arrival of the summer season – kicks things off, is usually followed by a stage for the pure sprinters and then two hillier stages that suit a mix of strong sprinters and classics riders. The queen stage usually comes on Saturday. In the past, the final stage was often for the sprinters but since 2013 it has been held on a tough circuit in the capital where the GC can change right until the very end.

 

In 2015, the organizers shook things up a bit and used new finales for the first three road stages but kept the overall format of the race. In 2014, the course was harder than ever before as there were three stages for the puncheurs and classics riders and just one for the sprinters. This year the course is almost completely identical to the one that was used back then, meaning that it will be an unusually hard edition of the race, just as it was when Matti Breschel won the race in 2014.

 

Prologue

One of the most iconic stages on the cycling calendar is the Tour de Luxembourg evening prologue. Even though the organizers tend to give slightly different distances every year, it is the same course that has been used for years. For many, the evening battle is a real indication that summer has arrived.

 

The 2.9km stage is held in the centre of the city of Luxembourg. The first part is slightly downhill and includes two iconic hairpin turns at the midpoint. Having reached the river, the riders will power along a relatively straight road until they get to the lung-busting finale. With 1km to go, they will hit the short, steep 490m climb that includes 354m of cobbles and averages 12.09%. The road levels out a big after the top but it continues to climb slightly. There’s another 190m of cobbles with 580m to go and there are several turns which make it very technical.

 

This prologue is a very special one which doesn’t suit the powerful time triallists. It’s a stage for puncheurs and strong sprinters who have the power and speed to sprint up the climb and the technical skills to handle the many corners. It’s known as Jimmy Engoulvent’s stage as the Frenchman took the win in 2007, 2010, 2012 and 2013, was second in 2008, third in 2011 and fourth in 2015. However, the Frenchman has now retired so there will be no fifth win in the stage that was won by Adrien Petit ahead of Bryan Coquard and Arnaud Gerard twelve months ago.

 

 

 

Stage 1

The first road stage has traditionally been for the sprinters and it will be no different in 2016. Like in 2014, the 170.6km stage will finish in Hesperange after the riders have travelled along mainly flat roads from the city of Luxembourg. There’s a category 2 climb (1.6km, 5.05%)at the 59.1km mark and then the riders will get to the 18.5km finishing circuit that will be covered thrice. 5.8km from the finish, it has a small climb (900m, 5.81%) that the riders will tackle a total of four times. The finale is completely flat and very technical as it includes three turns in quick succession inside the final kilometre.

 

The small climb on the circuit should do little to challenge most of the sprinters and we can expect the fast guys to battle it out in Hesperange like they did when André Greipel won here in 2014 and 2012.

 

 

 

Stage 2

In 2014, the organizers made the race more selective by including a puncheur finale in Schifflange on the second stage. After a one-year absence, that finish is back in 2016 when the riders will travel 162.6km from Rosport to the uphill finish on a course that is almost identical to the one that was used two years ago. After an early category 1 climb (2.1km, 7.97%) at the 29.3km mark, the riders will travel along mainly flat roads to the finishing city where they will pass close by the finish line with 41km to go.

 

Then they will tackle a mainly flat circuit that has a small category 2 climb (1.2km, 6.67%)with 37.7km to go but it is all just a warm-up for the finale. The stage has a nasty sting in its tail as it ends with a short, steep category 1 climb. Just after the flamme rouge, the riders will turn left to power up the 440m ascent that averages a massive 13.16%. The KOM sprint comes with 300m to go and then the road climbs slightly as the riders go through hairpin bends to get to the finish.

 

When this finale was used in 2013, the peloton split on the final climb as the puncheurs came to the fore. Matti Breschel beat Sergey Lagutin and Jempy Drucker in the uphill sprint on a day when only six riders finished in the time of the winner. This is the second chance for the punchy classics riders to make a difference after the prologue and it will give a big indication of who’s going to win the race.

 

 

 

Stage 3

Traditionally the queen stage has finished on a tough circuit around the city of Differdange. The organizers changed the script in 2013 and 2015 but this year the well-known key stage is back. It will bring the riders over 177.4km from Eschweiler to Differdange and is mainly flat as there’s just a single category 1 (3.5km, 7.24%) climb at the 74.3km mark during the opening run from the start to the finishing city. That’s where it will all explode as the riders will end the race by doing two laps of a 9.5km finishing circuit that includes the category 1 climb of the Col de l’Europe (1.52km, 7.5%) which they will tackle a total of three times. The top comes with 6.1km to go and the descent is followed by slightly downhill roads that lead to the finish. There are no major technical challenges as the road only has a mild turn 300m from the line.

 

Most of the riders know the Col de l’Europe which has always been the best change for the climbers to make a difference in this race and history shows that it’s usually possible for a single rider or a small group to ride away here. In 2014, four riders escaped and it was Matti Breschel who won the sprint. In 2012, Wout Poels beat Jakob Fuglsang and Frank Schleck in a 3-rider sprint while Linus Gerdemann rode to a solo win in 2011. In 2010, Frank Schleck and Matteo Carrera rode away on the climb while it was Andy Schleck who won an 8-rider sprint in 2009. The strongest sprinters have to dig deep to stay in the peloton and they hope for a regrouping and a sprint from a small group in the end while the climbers will try to blow the race to pieces and gain time on the faster guys in what is usually a very aggressive and entertaining finale.

 

 

 

Stage 4

The final stage has always finished in the capital of Luxembourg but the finishing circuit has varied a bit over the years. In the last three years, they have used a circuit that includes the short Pabeierbierg (825m, 9.05%) which has made it a perfect stage for puncheurs. That circuit will again feature in 2016 which marks the fourth year in a row with an unchanged finale.

 

The 178.2km stage starts in Mersche and covers early category 1 (2.3km, 6.90% and 2.7km, 5.62%) and category 2 (1.9km, 7.4%) climbs within the first 60km. There’s another category 2 climb at the midpoint but then the terrain gets flatter. However, the stage has a tough finale as the riders will end the race by doing four laps of a short 5.5km finishing circuit with the Pabeierberg. It’s pretty straightforward as it first consists of a gradually descending section along wide, winding roads before the riders hit the climb with 1800m to go. The top comes at the flamme rouge and then the road levels out for the final kilometre which just has a single turn with 800m to go.

 

While the GC riders have battled it out for seconds in a finale suited to punchy Ardennes specialists, the stage has often been won by a breakaway. That’s how Sean De Bie and André Greipel won the stage in 2015 and 2014 respectively. In 2013, the GC riders battled it out as Bob Jungels, Paul Martens and Jan Bakelants rode away and while the former won the stage, it was the German who took the overall. Traditionally a small group has escaped on the climb, with around 10 riders finishing in the same time as the best climbers.

 

 

 

The favourites

The Tour de Luxembourg has always been a race for puncheurs but it will be even more so in the very ard 2016 edition. Only one stage will be for the sprinters while the prologue and stage 1, 3 and 4 can all create decisive time gaps for the GC. As always, it will be a battle for seconds and the gaps will be very small but the stronger riders don’t have to rely on the Col de l’Europe to make a difference as they have so often had to in the past.

 

The prologue is the first test but don’t expect the stage to be won by the powerful TT specialists. This is much more about explosiveness and so the puncheurs and even the strong sprinters often come to the fore in this stage. This means that the riders who will be the strongest in the uphill sprints on stages 2 and 4 should already be able to do well here.

 

In the road stages, the puncheurs will be able to pick up valuable bonus seconds in stages 2 and 4 where small time gaps will be created. However, it could all be lost in stage 3 if you miss the decisive split on the Col de l’Europe. This is where the climbers will try to get rid of the faster guys but it is still a relatively short climb so it suits the punchy Ardennes specialists really well. A regrouping can take place after the climb but history shows that a small group usually goes on to battle it out for the win in a sprint.

 

One factor that could come into play is the weather. Rain is forecasted for every stage, most notably in the prologue whose cobbles will be very dangerous in wet conditions. There won’t be much wind so that is unlikely to have an impact but the rain will make the race a lot harder.

 

Overall the race will be won by a puncheur who can be in the mix for the stage wins and score bonus seconds in the two uphill sprints, be one of the best in the prologues and stay with the best on the Col de l’Europe while also handling the difficult weather.

 

The dominant team in the race is likely to be BMC that have by far the strongest roster and multiple potential winners. On paper, Philippe Gilbert is the leader and the course suits him down to the ground. The former world champion would usually be the favourite for the uphill sprints on stages 2 and 4 and he would definitely be one of the strongest in stage 3 where he could very well win a sprint from a small group. Furthermore, the explosive prologue is great for him and he could even win that stage too.

 

However, Gilbert’s form is uncertain. This is his first race since the classics where he was far from his best level as he had broken a finger in a training altercation. Furthermore, he admitted that he had been searching for form throughout the entire spring and he has not been at his best this year. This means that it is uncertain whether he will be ready to go for the win. However, on this kind of course, Gilbert can win even if he is not at 100% as it is simply tailor-made for him. He has set an optimistic tone and his form is never bad. As he has had a solid build-up for the race, we expect him to be so competitive that he is our favourite to win the race.

 

If Gilbert is not at 100%, BMC may decide to support local rider Jempy Drucker. On paper, one would expect that the course is too tough for the sprinter but in 2014 he was second overall on a route that was almost identical. He was second in the prologue, third in the uphill sprint on stage 2 but missed the decisive split on stage 3 before he made it into the group with the best on the final stage. Again his big challenge will be stage 3 as the Col de l’Europe could be too hard for him. However, if he is given leadership of his team, he will be supported by the strongest block of climbers as he can rely on Gilbert, Floris Gerts, Loic Vliegen and Dylan Teuns who are all great in this terrain. This could make all the difference for Drucker who showed decent form by working for the team in California. He is always very motivated for his home race and if he has the level he had two years ago, he could very well win the race.

 

Cofidis have always done well in this race with Rudy Molard but this year their leader is Anthony Turgis. The U23 Worlds silver medallist is starting to show himself in the pro ranks. Last year he won the Boucles de la Mayenne and this year he won Classic Loire Atlantique. Most important he showed his class in this kind of terrain by taking third in Yorkshire. His form is good as he was fifth in the uphill sprint in Plumelec last Saturday and in general the uphill sprints here suit him really well. His big challenge will be the prologue as he is not a good time triallist. However, this is much more about explosiveness and this should allow him to be one of the best on the first day too.

 

IAM are here with Matthias Brändle and we are very curious to see what he can do. On paper, the prologue may seem to be a bit too explosive for him even though he is one of the best prologue riders in the world. However, he finished fifth when he did the race in 2013 and now he is a much better time triallist. He is definitely one of the favourites for the opener and then it will all depend on how he can defend himself on the climbs. He is a big guy and has no chance to sprint for bonus seconds in stages 2 and 4 which could be too tough for him but when is on form he is not bad on short climb. Stage 3 could be too hard for him but if he can get an advantage in the prologue, it’s definitely not impossible for him to win the race.

 

On paper, the race is tailor-made for Oscar Gatto who would usually have been one of the obvious favouites. The uphill sprints in stages 2 and 4 suit him well and if he can hang onto the best on stage 3, his fast sprint can allow him to win that stage too. However, he has never done good time trials and even this kind of explosive prologue may not suit him. Furthermore, his form seemed to be very bad in California.

 

Stölting are without defending champion Linus Gerdemann but they still have a formidable winner candidate. Rasmus Guldhammer has all the skills to do well here as he is fast in a sprint, especially when it’s uphill. The prologue will be a challenge but he should be able to limit his losses on such an explosive course. He was flying in this kind of terrain in 2015, most notably at the Tour of Britain, and he finally seems to have found some form after a very bad start to the year. He may not be at 100% yet but if he can continue to show progress, he will be very dangerous in this race.

 

Roompot have Maurits Lammertink as a solid contender. The Dutchman took a massive step up in the Ardennes where he was one of the strongest riders at Brabantse Pijl and Amstel Gold Race. He is strong in this kind of terrain and fast in both flat and uphill sprints. The big challenge will be the prologue as he did very poorly last year and he doesn’t seem to be in the form he had in the Ardennes.

 

We look forward to seeing Olivier Pardini. The Belgian has been very strong this year and is realy suited to this course. He is a great prologue rider, strong in hilly terrain and fast in a sprint. He was very strong in March but h hasn’t raced since he abandoned in Dunkirk. Hence, it remains to be seen what kind of form he has.

The best climber in the race is definitely Pieter Weening who has just won the Tour of Norway. However, he is not an explosive rider so this race doesn’t really suit him. He should be with the best in the hard stages but he won’t be able to pick up bonus seconds and he will also lose time in the prologue. His only chance is to ride away on the Col de l’Europe but that’s not totally impossible.

 

Topsport Vlaanderen have two good cards to play in Pieter Vanspeybrouck and Floris De Tier who both showed great for at the Belgium Tour. The former is probably their best option as he is faster in a sprint ad will be better in the prologue.

 

BMC have Loic Vliegen and Dylan Teuns as third and fourth options. They are both great in this terrain but the former probably has the best chance as he is faster and more explosive than the latter.

 

It will also be a good idea to keep an eye on the in-form Sander Armee. He was very strong in Norway but he is not fast enough to win the race and he will lose too much time in the prologue. Furthermore, he will pay for his poor positioning in the uphill finales. Alex Kirsch is also always very strong in his home race and should find the course to his liking as he has often been one of the best in the prologue.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE will be riding for Christopher Juul who is strong in this terrain and a good time triallist. However, the course is too explosive to make him a potential winner of the race. In fact, Caleb Ewan will probably be their best chance to win the race even though it’s a bit of a long shot. However, the Australian will probably be one of the best in the prologue and as he proved at the Sun Tour, he is very strong on short, steep climbs. The big challenge will be the Col de l’Europe but if there’s a regrouping in that stage, he may be able to limit his losses in the uphill sprints and win the race by doing a good prologue and scoring bonus seconds in stage 1.

 

Finally, Gaetan Bille deserves a mention. The Belgian would usually be one of the favourites as he excels in this kind of prologues and is fast in an uphill sprint. However, he crashed at the GP de la Somme and missed the Belgium Tour which was a big goal for him. Hence, his form is unlikely to be good enough to be competitive.

 

***** Philippe Gilbert

**** Jempy Drucker, Anthony Turgis,

*** Matthias Brändle Oscar Gatto, Rasmus Guldhammer, Maurits Lammertink, Olivier Pardini

** Pieter Weening, Pieter Vanspeybrouck, Sander Armee, Loic Vliegen, Alex Kirsch, Christopher Juul, Caleb Ewan, Gaetan Bille

* Stephane Rossetto, Dylan Teuns, Floris De Tier, Huub Duijn, Marco Marcato, Tom Bohli, Mathias Frank, Dion Smith, Romain Hardy, Nicolas Edet, Luis Angel Mate, Arnaud Gerard, David Tanner, Tom Bohli, Fabian Wegmann, Mads Pedersen, Gijs Van Hoecke, Florian Vachon