The Tour de France gets almost all the attention in the cycling world but for once the biggest race will face competition from another WorldTour event. Due to the Rio Olympics, the Tour de Pologne will shift from its usual August slot to the middle of July where it serves as the perfect alternative preparation for the battle for gold in Brazil. The race offers 7 days of tough racing and while it mainly serves as a solid warm-up for some, the race still offers important WorldTour points and has traditionally been the scene of breakthrough performance by some of the sport’s most exciting stars.

 

The European part of the WorldTour calendar is almost solely made up of historical races in cycling’s traditional hotbeds but one event stands out. The Tour de Pologne was the surprise inclusion on the calendar when the UCI introduced the ProTour in 2005as the Eastern European country has never been a major powerhouse in cycling. However, the event has flourished over the last few years and the combination of a very talented generation of Polish cyclists and a big event in the finest race series has contributed to a cycling boom in the country.

 

The Tour de Pologne is actually a very old race but it has only made its existence known to the general cycling public in the last decade. First held in 1928, it enjoyed a mostly anonymous life as a national tour that mostly attracted Polish riders and did little to make an impact on the international cycling scene. Up until the 1990s, the winners were almost all national riders but during the last decade of the 1900s, the end of the Cold War and the fall of the Berlin Wall opened the door for international riders to target the Polish rce.

 

The major breakthrough as an international event came with the launch of the UCI ProTour in 2005. To avoid building the series of only races in cycling's traditional powerhouses, the UCI decided to include the Polish national tour on the list of the world's leading events – a further step in its attempt to globalize cycling. Suddenly, the biggest teams in the world were obliged to enter the race which enjoyed a special position as the only Eastern European event on the sport's finest calendar.

 

Since then the race has maintained its position on the UCI ProTour which later evolved into the UCI WorldTour and gradually the event has found its feet. In 2005, it was mostly a race for sprinters with often just one slightly hilly stage to spice things up. Most of the stages were excessively long, flat runs through Poland. The race was held in early September and so was seen as a perfect preparation event for the Worlds. Hence, it was no surprise that the organizers managed to attract many classics specialists who needed the race to polish their form for the battle for the rainbow jersey. The winner's list was an illustrious one as Kim Kirchen, Stefan Schumacher, Johan Vansummeren and Jens Voigt took home the first 4 editions of the rejuvenated race.

 

However, those races were all plagued by bad weather, with extreme rain even forcing the riders to neutralize a stage. To avoid those conditions, the race was rescheduled to become a late-July/early-August event in 2009. It lost its status as preparation event for the Worlds but instead it gained a new position as an almost indispensable part of the race schedule for those Vuelta contenders who had not raced the Tour. At the same time, the race managed to attract some of the Tour riders who hoped to use their post-Tour condition to pick up a few good results.

 

The race has maintained that role and has also found a much more attractive and thoroughly tested format. For several years, the courses were all very similar, with a couple of flat stages mixed up with a testing stage to Cieszyn and the queen stages to Zakopane and Bukowina Tatrzanska being the fixed core of the race itinerary. With no time trial and no long climbs, it was a race for puncheurs who could score bonus seconds by sprinting up the short, steep climbs in the southern part of the country and it was no surprise to see the race being won by riders like Alessandro Ballan, Daniel Martin, Peter Sagan and Moreno Moser.

 

While those courses have all been rather successful, the organizers used the 2014 edition to develop the race a bit further. To celebrate the relationship between Poland and the Italian Trentino region, the race started in Italy which allowed the race to kick off with two very tough mountain stages. A rest day on Monday brought the race back to its home country where the challenging and well-tested stages to Zakopane and Bukowina Tatrzanska made further ground for aggressive racing. To spice things up even further, the traditional final sprint stage to Krakow had been replaced by a difficult, hilly 39km time trial. For the first time, the race suited the real stage race specialists with a mini-grand tour format.

 

To add further to the spectacle, the race had been chosen as a test event for the UCI to try out new rules that should create more attractive races. First of all the usual 8-rider teams were replaced by reduced 6-rider rosters. Secondly, a rule change had been included to force the GC riders to race more aggressively. A daily points competition offered significant time bonuses for the main contenders who suddenly had an incentive to take part in the intermediate and KOM sprints. However, those experiments didn’t bring a lot of extra excitement and have been abandoned.

 

Of course the Italian visit was a special event and so the massive climbing that featured in 2013 haven’t be repeated. In 2015, the race ventured into Slovakia for a new summit finish and the time trial on the final day was maintained. With less hard climbing and a crucial race against the clock, the race was more suited to time triallists – a strange evolution as the race was once one of the only WorldTour stage races where TT skills counted for nothing. Last year the race is back to its traditional format with four opening sprint stages and the classic stages to Zakopane and Bukowina Tatrzanska. The stage to Zakopane was made significantly harder, meaning that there were two days of solid climbing. However, the final time trial was maintained, meaning that the time triallists were still favoured. This year the organizers have designed an almost identical course, with the three key stages being almost unchanged.

 

However, the role of the race has changed significantly. Like in 2012, the early August slot is taken by the Olympics and it is not feasible for a WorldTour race to take place during the biggest sport event in the world. In 2012, the organizers saw an opportunity to move to a spot in July where it would be a perfect preparation event for the Olympics. After all, there is barely any other races than the Tour de France at this time of the year so for riders vying for Olympic gold and aren’t going to France, there is no place to get the racing kilometres in the legs. Knowing that it is hard to compete with the Tour de France, the 2012 race was a solid success even though the race was always going to be caught between a rock and a hard place.

 

For the Olympics 2016 season, the organizers have opted for a similar plan and this year the race will again be held during July. Unfortunately, it has failed to attract the same kind of field as it did in 2012. Back then the Olympic course was a lot flatter and many sprinters and classics riders opted for the Polish race as the best preparation. With the Rio course suited to the climbers and grand tour specialists, it is a common assessment that there is no way around the Tour de France if you want to be competitive on the Brazilian climbs. Hence, almost all the Olympic contenders are gathered in France and the field in Poland is less star-studded. However, riders like Philippe Gilbert, Jonathan Castroviejo and Diego Ulissi using the race to prove themselves worthy of selection for Rio while riders like Andrey Amador, Rigoberto Uran, Michal Kwiatkowski and Rein Taaramae who have already been selected, will use the race to fine-tune their condition.

 

However, this could pen doors for others. In recent years, it has given some of the most exciting talents the possibility to pick up a big result. In 2010 Daniel Martin took his only stage race win to date while a certain Peter Sagan denied the Irishman a repeat win one year later. In 2012, the race also came down to a battle between the young guns. Moreno Moser made it two in a row for Liquigas as he won a tight battle with Michal Kwiatkowski and Sergio Henao.

 

Last year it was another young talent who proved his potential by claiming his first WorldTour stage race win. After two consecutive podium places, Ion Izagirre finally got the elusive win. The Basque stayed close to the puncheurs in the two hilly stages and then claimed victory after a hugely exciting time trial. In the end, he beat Bart De Clercq by just two seconds while Ben Hermans was just one second further adrift in third. Izagirre is doing the Tour so he won’t try to defend his title but De Clercq and Hermans who were both overlooked for their respective Tour teams will try to take the elusive win that they narrowly missed 12 months ago.

 

The course

As said, the race has traditionally suited the puncheurs who could use the medium mountains and their explosive climbing skills to score bonus seconds in a race that was often decided by the tiniest margins. After the grand tour format in 2013, the race has now been turned into one for time triallists and this year the trend will continue. Last year the race returned to having its two key stages in Zakopane and Bukowina Tatrzanska while the flat time trial in Krakow was maintained. This year the format is almost identical, with the two hilly stages and the time trial being largely unchanged.

 

At the same time, the sprinters will lick their lips in anticipation of this year’s event. The race has traditionally had several sprint stages in the flat northern part of the country but in 2013 the fast finishers didn’t have many chances to shine. Like last year, the race will again allow the sprinters to shine in the first four stages which seem destined to end in bunch sprints. However, the courses have been made a bit hillier. Last year only one of the four opening stages had some real climbing but this year both stages 3 and 4 will include some climbs that will whittle down the bunch before we get to the expected sprints.

 

While the sprinters are likely to shine in the first half, the second part is where the GC will be shaped. On Saturday, the traditional stage to Zakopane is back and like last year it has been made a lot harder compare to what it was when it was dominated by strong sprinters.  One day later, the well-known stage to Bukowina Tatrzanska will be the queen stage and it will be the big day for the climbers. On the final day, the time triallists will have their day in the spotlight on a 25km mostly flat route in Krakow. The time trial is shorter and flatter than it was two years ago but is unchanged compared to the last two years.

 

 

Stage 1:

In the early years as a WorldTour race, the Tour de Pologne sometimes started with a short team time trial but since it has found a more fixed format, the sprinters have always had their say on the first day – with the very special 2013 edition being the exception. This year it will be no different as the opening stage will mostly be held on a difficult circuit in the capital of Warsaw where the fast riders are expected to shine.

 

From 2007 to 2011, the capital always hosted the finish of the opening stage but in recent years the race has mainly been held in the southern part of the country. Since then, the race has rarely ventured into the northern part but in 2014 the race finally returned. During their journey to the hilly south, the riders visited Warsaw on stage 2 and so the capital was back after a two-year absence. Last year the opening stage was the only one not to take place in the south and this year the riders will again race do their stage in Warsaw earlier than usual to make room for an evening travel to the south where the rest of the race will take place.

 

Last year the opening stage was held entirely on a circuit but this year the riders will start in Radzymin before they head to the capital where they will do most of the stage on a new circuit with a similarly tricky finale. At just 135km, the opening stage is a very short one, with the first 35.6km bringing the riders from the starting city to the circuit in the city centre. After 37.9km of racing, they will cross the finish line for the first time and then the rest of the race consists of seven laps of a 13.8km circuit.

 

The first part of the circuit is mainly made up of a long, straight road but the second part is a bit hillier with two small climbs. Importantly, one of them is very technical and comes with just 1.5km to go. Last the sprint came just after that climb but this year the finish line comes a little later. After the technical section, the riders will pass the flamme rouge and then there’s sharp right-hand turn. Finally, there is a sweeping left-hand bend and a sharp left-hand turn inside the final 500m, the final of those leading onto the 280m finishing straight. There will be cobbles between the 850m and 280m to go marks.

 

There will be an intermediate sprint on the fifth lap while there will be KOM points on offer on the first climb in lap four and on the second climb in lap 6.

 

The Tour de Pologne has always been a festival for sprinters and it doesn’t make much sense to go to the race without a fast finisher. Hence, the start list is loaded with fast guys who will be eager to strike on the opening day, get a stage win and wear the yellow jersey. Hence, it is very hard to imagine that the opening stage won’t come down to a big bunch sprint in the streets of Warsaw. However, the very tricky finale will make lead-outs much more important than pure speed. Last year it was a hugely confusing finale and even though the finish line has been moved a bit, it will still be very technical. This sprint is all about positioning as it was the case in 2015 when Marcel Kittel took the win.

 

Before Kittel’s win, Warsaw last hosted the Tour de Pologne in 2014 when Petr Vakoc took a hugely surprising solo win on a day that was expected to be for the sprinters. In 2011 Marcel Kittel took his first ever WorldTour victory on the opening day before going on to win another three stages of the race. In 2010, Jacopo Guarnieri was the fastest in the opening bunch sprint while Borut Bozic was the first winner in 2009. In 2007 and 2008, the race opened with a team time trial in the capital and they were won by Lampre-Fondital and Team CSC-Saxo Bank respectively, with Roberto Longo and Lars Bak becoming the first race leaders.

 

 

 

Stage 2:

The sprinters that were left disappointed on the opening day will get an immediate chance to take their revenge as the second stage is another one for the fast riders. After a travel overnight, the riders are now in the hilly southern part of the country but they will wait another days before they go into the hills. That will give the sprinters another day to chase success before they head into survival mode.

 

One of the classic stages in the Tour de Pologne is the one that finishes in Katowice which has been visited every year since 2010. This year the city will welcome the event on the second day and it will use largely the same circuit that has been used every time. A few modifications were made in 2015 to increase the length from 12.3km to 14.7km and this year the same circuit will be used.

 

With the long travel, it is no surprise that the second stage is another short one. At just 153km, it brings the riders from Tarnowskie Gory to Katowice and it is another almost completely flat affair. Having done tackled a small circuit in the starting city, the riders will travel south for most of the day. There are a few rolling hills but they will do nothing to challenge the riders.Along the way, they will contest intermediate sprints at the 41.5km, 62.2km and 72.3km marks respectively.

 

The riders will enter the finishing circuit after 79.5km of racing and after crossing the finish line just 1km later, they will end the stage by doing five laps of the 14.7km circuit that is almost completely flat. However, there are two small climbs that will be used to hand out KOM points. The hardest comes in the first half of the circuit and will offer points on the fourth lap while the second ascent comes just 1.2km from the finish and will offer points on the second lap.

 

The circuit is pretty technical and has several corners interspersed with long, straight roads. However, the finale is not too complicated. The riders will turn left just before the 2km mark and then go straight through a roundabout before they head up one of the small climbs. The summit comes just before the flamme rouge which is located in a roundabout where the riders will turn around to get onto the finishing straight which is slightly descending.

 

This could be the final opportunity for the sprinters and so there is little chance that they will miss out on the chance to sprint for the win. The late climb has often been used to make late attacks but it is no major challenge and even though it comes a bit closer to the finish than it has done in most of the past editions, it is unlikely to prevent the sprinters from having their say. The downhill sprint on a long, straight road is usually one of the fastest in the WorldTour and will be the perfect scene for the riders with the highest speed.

 

Last year Matteo Pelucchi continued his success by claiming his second straight stage win here ahead of Giacomo Nizzolo and Tom Van Asbroeck. In 2014 it was Jonas Van Genechten who took the biggest win of his career by holding off Jacopo Guarnieri and Luka Mezgec. One year earlier Taylor Phinney did what most thought to be impossible by making a brave move and narrowly holding off the sprinters before Steele Von Hoff beat Yauheni Hutarovich in the sprint for second. In 2012, Aidis Kruopis prevailed in a bunch sprint while Marcel Kittel was the fastest in 2011. In 2010, Hutarovich took a big WorldTour win when he beat Lucas Haedo and Allan Davis in the Polish city.

 

 

 

Stage 3:

This year the course has been described as one of the hardest yet and one of the main reasons for that is the inclusion of the third stage. This year the riders will hit hillier terrain a bit earlier than usual as this third leg will see them tackle a few climbs that can create an initial selection. For the second year in a row, they will finish in the city of Nowy Sacz where Maciej Bodnar took a breakaway win and denied the sprinters in 2015 but this year a hillier run-in means that the stage will be harder. With a downhill finish, it’s not a day to win the race but it’s a day when you can definitely lose it.

 

What will make the race even tougher is the distance. The Tour de Pologne has been known for its many very long sprint stages. This year they have been shortened significantly but the hilly stages are long. This one covers a massive 240km and brings the riders from Zawiercie to Nowy Sacz where the riders will end the race with their usual circuit finish.

 

In the first part of the stage, the riders will travel in a southerly direction along mainly flat roads until they get to the city of Wadowice after 78.3km of racing. Here they will contest the only intermediate sprint and turn to the east to approach the finishing city. The roads are still flat but gradually the terrain gets more difficult as they venture into the hills.

 

The feed zone is located at the 109.2km mark and then it is time for the climbing to start. The next part has several smaller climbs which will have taken their toll when they reach the bottom of the first category 1 climb whose summit is located 61.1km from the finish.

 

The riders will now descend towards the finishing city but instead of going to the finish line, they will head into the hills on the eastern outskirts of the city. Having contested a special sprint at the 193.9km mark, they will tackle two category 3 climbs in quick succession with 33.3km and 26.7km to go respectively. Then it’s time to again descend to the finishing city where the riders will get onto the finishing circuit with 22.4km to go

 

200m later, the first passage of the finish line signals the start of the first of 3 laps of the 7.4km finishing circuit. It is mainly flat and very straightforward, with only a few technical challenges. The riders will make a U-turn with 1.5km to go and then it’s a straight road to the finish. The stage includes 1860m of climbing.

 

Compared to last year, the stage has been changed. The category 1 climb is the same as the one that was used last year but back then they turned around to tackle it again from another direction. This year they will do the two category 3 climbs instead and they come closer to the finish. However, they are both relatively short and with the flat circuits in the end, there will be time for a regrouping to take place. Last year a breakaway stayed away and it’s definitely not impossible that we will have a similar scenario if the break doesn’t contain riders that are dangerous for the GC. The sprinters will be a bit uncertain about their chances so it’s not evident who’s going to do the chase. On the other hand, the GC riders don’t want to let their overall ambitions slip away so they will probably control things and the most likely outcome is a reduced bunch sprint which should suits riders like Fernando Gaviria, Sacha Modolo and Niccolo Bonifazion who are known for their ability to survive late climbs.

 

Last year Maciej Bodnar, Kamil Zielisnki and Gatis Smukulis held the peloton off by 20 seconds, with Bodnar taking the victory. Caleb Ewan beat Luka Mezgec and Tom Van Asbroeck in the reduced bunch sprint for fourth.

 

 

 

Stage 4:

The first part of the race has mostly been a sprint festival. This year two of the four first stages are a bit hillier but the fast finishers should still find plenty of room to shine. They will hope to get their finale opportunity on the fourth day. The city of Rzeszow has featured on the course regularly and has mostly hosted a sprint stage. After a one-year absence, the race will return to the city but this year a hillier run-in to the finish could change the nature of the race.

 

At 218km, the fourth stage is another very long one which will bring the riders from Nowy Sacz to Rzeszow. It mainly consists of a long easterly and northeasterly run through relatively flat terrain. However, the organizers have added an interesting sting in its tail which will make things harder. Instead of continuing straight to the finishing city, the riders will digress from the direct tour to tackle two category 3 climbs on the southern outskirts of the city at the 110.2km (1.2km, 8.4%) and 117.7km (3km, 5.8%)respectively. Then they will head along flat roads to the finish where they will cross the line for the first time with 78.9km to go.

 

The riders will now take on a 60.9km circuit that includes a category 2 climb (2.3km, 8%) and the two category 3 climbs that have already been tackled once. They come with 56.1km, 47.7km and 40.2km respectively. Having returned to the finish, the riders will end the stage by doing three laps of a 6km circuit, with the only intermediate sprint coming with 17.3km to go. The circuit is flat and doesn’t include many technical challenges. There are turns with 2.75km, 1.6km, 1.05km and 0.85km to go but from there it is a straight road to the finish. The stage include 2000m of climbing.

 

The total amount of climbing will be bigger than it was in the previous stage and two of the climb are pretty steep. However, they come way too far from the finish for the GC riders to make a move but they will definitely be too hard for the pure sprinters. As some riders will have lost time in the previous stage, it could be another good opportunity for a breakaway so it will probably be a very fast stage. On the other hand, a rider like Fernando Gaviria is a great climber and he should usually be able to overcome these challenges. As it’s the final chance for the sprinters, there will probably be a few teams going for the win so another reduced bunch sprint is the most likely outcome.

 

Rzeszow last hosted a stage finish in 2014 when Theo Bos beat Luka Mezgec and Michael Matthews in a sprint. One year earlierThor Hushovd marked his return to form by beating Mark Renshaw and Steele Von Hoff in a bunch sprint. It 2009 his compatriot Edvald Boasson Hagen held off Jürgen Roelandts and Danilo Napolitano in the final dash to the line but in 2008, Roelandts did one better when he beat Jose Joaquin Rojas and Steven De Jongh to take a big WorldTour win in his first year as a professional.

 

 

 

Stage 5:

After four days with flat finales, it is finally time for the first serious climbing day in this year’s Tour de Pologne when the riders tackle the stage to Zakopane which has often welcomed the city. In the past, it always had the same layout and been a perfect stage for strong sprinters and puncheurs who have excelled in the moderately hilly terrain and the uphill sprint as the climbs were never very steep. However, the stage was markedly different in 2015 as the climbing was made a lot tougher and this year it will be almost identical, meaning that it is the first chance for the GC riders to make their mark.

 

At 225km, it is another very long stage that brings the riders from the Wieliczka to Zakopane. The first part of the stage is made up of a predominantly flat southerly journey but the road gradually starts to rise as the riders approach the finishing circuit which they will enter after 109.2km of racing. At the 102.5km mark, they will contest a special sprint.

 

The circuit is 50.1km long, includes three category 1 climbs and is a bit short than last year’s. Before getting to the finish line, the riders will do the final 15.5.6km and that includes one of the climbs. It is the Koscielisko Butorwy Wierch which is 4.2km long and has kilometres that average 9.2%, 6.2%, 7.8% and 4.8% respectively. The steepest section of 18.4% comes at the bottom. From the top, there are still 8.7km to the finish.

 

After the first passage of the line, the riders will do two full laps of the circuit. The first part is almost all uphill and culminates at the top of the category 1 Glodowka climb which is 8km long and mostly averages around 4-5%. There’s a flat section near the top before it ramps up for the final kilometre where it reaches it maximum gradient of 8.8%. The summit comes with 31.1km to go and then the riders will descend to the bottom of the Zab climb which is 4km long with kilometres averaging 4.0%, 7.5%, 6.4% and 7.3% respectively and a steep 11.4% section at the midpoint, and then it’s time for Koscielisko Butorwy Wierch  again. The final two ascents will be tackled with 15.8km and 8.7km to go respectively. The final part is mainly descending but the final 3km are very slightly uphill. There are two turns in quick succession just before the flamme rouge but the final kilometre is straight. There will be intermediate sprints on the final lap with 20.3km and 5.6km to go respectively.

 

Compared to last year, the circuit has been changed slightly in the end, meaning that the climbs come around 2km closer to the finish. However, the final 3km are unchanged. The total amount of climbing is 3370m.

 

The climbers don’t have many chances to make a difference in this year’s Tour de Pologne so they need to make the most of the two opportunities they have got. One of them is stage 5 which has some very significant climbing. The first climb is not very hard but to the two ascents inside the final 25km are definitely perfect opportunities to go on the attack. With a mostly downhill finish, it won’t be impossible for a single rider or a small group to make it to the finish even though the final 3km favour a bigger group. At the same time, the selection could leave many teams with limited domestique resources and this opens the door for late attacks in the final 3km which will be very hard to control. A sprint from a small group or success for a late attack is the most likely outcomes of what will be a tough day in the Polish hills.

 

Last year it was such a late move that worked out. After the climbs, a select 12-rider group was formed but it was impossible for the fast riders to hold it together for a sprint. Bart De Clercq made a late win for freedom and held off his chasers to claim a surprise win and take the leader’s jersey. Pre-stage favourite Diego Ulissi did his best to catch him in the finale but had to settle for second.

 

Zakopane also hosted stage finishes in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 and 2013 but in those editions it was the well-known, easier final circuit that suited the strong sprinters. That is clearly reflected in the list of winners. In 2013, Thor Hushovd powered to an uphill sprint win by beating Matthieu Ladagnous and Daniele Ratto while Ben Swift was faster than Elia Viviani in 2012. In 2011, it was Peter Sagan who laid the foundations for his overall win by taking the stage victory and in 2009 Edvald Boasson Hagen was the fastest from a 19-rider group. In 2008, Jens Voigt rode away to a solo win that later would secure him the overall win.

 

 

 

Stage 6:

It has become a tradition for the Tour de Pologne to have the classic stage on the hilly circuit in Bukowina Tatrzanska on the penultimate day of the race. It made its debut in 2010 and since then it has been on the course every year and so it well-known by many of the riders. This year there is no doubt that it will the queen stage of the race and with the only uphill finish in the race, this is the day for the climbers to really make their mark.

 

The exact lay-out of the stage varies a bit from year to year. The 2015 edition of the stage is 194km long, brings the riders from the Bukovina Resort to the finish on the top of the Bukowina Tatrzanska climb. The main change is that this year’s stage is held entirely as a circuit race as it is made up of five laps of a 38.9km circuit but the circuit has also been modified a bit to include an extra climb.

 

It consists of three climbs, their subsequent descents with no flat roads in between and the uncategorized climb to the finish. The category 1 Zab climb (4.5km, 5.8%) which the riders already did in the previous stage is the first challenge. The kilometres average 4.0%, 7.5%, 6.4% and 7.3% respectively and it has a steep 11.4% section at the midpoint. The top comes with 26.8km to go. Then it is time for the category 1 Sciana Bukovina (5.5km, 5.6%) is the first. The first half is relatively easy but it gets much steeper near the top and has a tough 21.5% section at its midpoint. The top comes with 13.2km to goThe next difficulty is a small category 2 climb that comes just 3.8km later. The final difficulty has not been categorized but the 5.0km ascent with an average gradient of 4.4% has the finish line located at its top. After an easy start, the third kilometre is the hardest with an 8.1% gradient and an 11.5% maximum but the final two kilometres are much easier at 2.6% and 3.8% respectively. The finish line comes at the end of a long only slightly winding road. There will be an intermediate sprint 31.3km from the finish on the final lap. The total amount of climbing is 3690m.

 

The addition of the category 2 climb is new but otherwise the circuit is unchanged. It has been used in the five most recent editions. In 2010, Bauke Mollema attacked from a long distance to open up a 7-second gap on a small group at the finish, in 2011 Daniel Martin put 1 second into his nearest chaser Wout Poels while race leader Peter Sagan lost 13 seconds, and in 2012 Sergio Henao was reeled in by Moreno Moser and Michal Kwiatkowski just on the line, with the Italian coming out triumphant. In 2013, Christophe Riblon made a brave attack on the final lap and made it up to the remnants of a big early break. Darwin Atapuma was able to hang onto his wheel and while the Frenchman rode himself into yellow, the Colombian took the stage win. 22 seconds later Leopold König narrowly held off Diego Ulissi who won the sprint of a 15-rider group of favourites. In 2014 it was a 12-rider group that reached the finish and Rafal Majka was able to open a 10-second advantage over Benat Intxausti and Ion Izagirre on the final climb. Last year Henao attacked on the final climb and reached the finish with an 8-second advantage over a 10-rider which split slightly on the final climb. Ulissi beat Lawson Craddock in the sprint for second.

 

The climbs may all have some steep sections but their average gradients are not fearsome and the final few kilometres are pretty easy. In fact, only Riblon, Majka and Henao have been able to make a bigger difference and the time gaps will definitely be a matter of seconds. It’s a day more for puncheurs than real climbers but the riders who excel on the climbs need to gain as much time as possible ahead of the final time trial. Usually, the final lap is very aggressive and turns into an elimination race as not one can allow themselves to wait for the final climb if they want to gain a significant amount of time. In any case, it will be important to distance the best time triallists and this means that many teams have an interest in making the race hard. At the same time, the 2013 edition of the race proved that the circuit is very hard to control and it won’t be impossible for someone to do what Riblon did three years ago.

 

 

 

 

 

Stage 7:

In 2013, the organizers introduced the novelty of holding a time trial on the final day and apparently they liked the idea. In 2014 and 2015, the final stage was again a race against the clock and again Krakow was the scene for the end of the race. In fact, the race has ended here every year since 2008. This year the final stage will be the exact same that ended the two latest editions of the race.

 

There are not many similarities between the 2013 and 2016 time trials. At 37km, the 2013 course was longer as the riders will only have to cover 25km in this year’s edition of the race. Furthermore, the 2013 stage was held on a point-to-point course that was pretty hilly and included some nasty climbs. This year’s stage takes place on a completely flat out-and-back course that is held entirely within the city. There are a few turns at the start and the finish but otherwise, it is made up of long, straight roads. After just a few kilometres, the riders get to main road which will be the scene of most of the stage. They will simply travel along the flat road for several kilometres until they turn around and head along the same road back to the finish. In the end, they will approach the line from a slightly different direction, meaning that there are another few turns in the finale.

 

This stage definitely suits the biggest specialists and for the climbers, it could be a very costly day. There is little doubt it will be the most important stage in determining the overall winner of the Tour de Pologne and if one of the best time triallists can limit his losses reasonably in stages 5 and 6, he can do a lot of damage on this stage. With stage 7 set to decide the overall victory, the 2016 Tour de Pologne seems to be one for the time triallists and no one will win the race without possessing decent TT skills.

 

The fact that the course suits the specialists is evident from the previous results. Last year Marcin Baloblocki delivered a major surprise by beating Vasil Kiryienka by just 2 seconds. The best GC riders was Ion Izagirre in sixth, 1.24 behind the stage winner. In 2014, was Kristof Vandewalle who beat Adriano Malori by 3 seconds while Stephen Cummings was third at 10 seconds. The best of the riders in winning contention was again Izagirre who was seventh with a time loss of 29 seconds while Rafal Majka’s 13th place was enough to take the overall win. In 2013 Bradley Wiggins beat Fabian Cancellara by almost a minute in a true demonstration of force. Otherwise, the final stage has been one for the sprinters and it has been completely dominated by Germans. Robert Förster won the first battle in 2008 while André Greipel was the fastest in both 2009 and 2010. Marcel Kittel took a fourth stage win on the final day in 2011 while in 2012 his teammate John Degenkolb became the latest sprinter to win in Krakow.

 

 

 

The favourites

The Tour de Pologne is one of the harder races to predict as most riders enter the race just off the back of a mid-season break and many riders haven't raced since their national championships. This year the July slot and its status as a preparation race for the Olympics mean that more riders should be at a more advanced level. Furthermore, the fact that it comes during the Tour means that it is a perfect chance for riders who were overlooked for Tour selection to make use of their great form. Still the condition of the riders is a bit up in the air and not even the teams themselves have a clear idea of what to expect. For most of the biggest names, the race is also mostly a preparation for upcoming bigger objectives and so it is no surprise that some of the young guns have beaten all the stage race stars in recent editions.

 

Most of the recent editions of the race have been suited to puncheurs who excel on the short, not very steep climbs in the southern part of Poland, and this is reflected in the list of winners. The 2013 race was one for the true stage race specialists who can both climb and time trial but the two latest editions wwere more for the time triallists.

 

This year’s course is very similar to the one that was used 12 months ago. Again there are two climbing stages and it all ends with the exact same time trial. Both of the hilly stages are almost identical and we know what to expect. They will whittle the list of contenders significantly down but history shows that the best riders will only be separated by seconds in these stages. The flat finish in stage 5 means that the gaps could be nothing between the best riders. They will have to make the difference in the well-known stage to Bukowina Tatrzanska. While the heavy guys usually lose a lot of time on that day, the difference between the best will still be small Only a superior rider can create bigger gaps in that stage, with Rafal Majka’s performance in 2014 and Sergio Henao’s in 2015 probably being the best ever on the short, steep climbs in that area. However, the biggest time gaps in the top of the GC will definitely be made in the final time trial and so no one will win this race without possessing solid TT abilities. As the TT is completely flat and non-technical, it is not a stage that offers the climbers many chances to limit their losses.

 

The amount of climbing means that the heaviest specialists have no chance but a strong time triallist can allow himself to lose a few seconds in the finales of the two climbing stages as the time trial is long enough to take it back. The final factor that could come into play is bonification. There are 10, 6 and 4 seconds for the first three riders across the finish line and 3, 2 and 1 seconds at the intermediate sprints. A fast sprint is definitely an advantage and a good puncheur can potentially gain 20 seconds in the two climbing stages which will be a significant advantage for the time trial. Nonetheless, the most important set of skills required to win this race is a solid pair of TT legs.

 

With the time trial set to be decisive, it is a perfect race for Bob Jungels. Among the good climbers in this race, the Luxembourger is one of the best time triallists and he is even powerful enough to potentially win the final stage. Jungels has always been a great talent but he had his big breakthrough at the Giro d’Italia where he finished sixth overall and did some of the best time trials of his life. He was seventh in the opening test in Apeldoorn which is not too different from the TT in Krakow and he would probably have won the long time trial if it hadn’t been for the rainy weather.

 

Jungels has always been a good time triallist but he has lacked a bit of consistency, especially on the flat courses. In fact, we have been pretty disappointed with his performances on several occasions but at the Giro he seemed to have taken a step up. Furthermore, most of the GC contenders in this race are not really specialists so he doesn’t need to win the final stage to take the overall victory.

 

To be in with a chance, Jungels has to do well in the hilly stages too. However, he is a great climber and he is actually pretty explosive too. He even has a fast sprint which may allow him to pick up bonus seconds in the two key stages and then it will all come down to the final time trial.

 

However, there is some uncertainly about his form. He will skip the Olympics and he hasn’t raced since the National Championships. He is unlikely to be at 100%. On the other hand, he was very strong at Nationals where he won both titles in dominant fashion and already at that point, he spoke about this race. He shouldn’t be too bad so if he can stay with the best in the two hilly stages, he will be ready to win the race in the time trial.

 

The race is tailor-made for local hero Michal Kwiatkowski and if it had been the 2014 season, we would have no doubt that he was going to win this race. However, the former world champion has been far from his best since the start of the 2015 season and this season has been pretty bad too. He may have won E3 Harelbeke but that was by anticipating the favourites and his Ardennes campaign was a real disaster.

 

It’s hard to say what has happened to Kwiatkowski but no one can deny that he is no longer at his best. However, there were signs of improvement at the Dauphiné where he did a very good mountain prologue but then he fell ill. That cost him the selection for the Tour de France and his performance in Poland will depend on his motivation. If he has maintained his form and the signs in the Dauphiné were an indication of a return to his best, he will win the race. If the non-selection was a big blow and he has failed to keep his good condition, this race could be another disaster.

 

In any case, the course suits him excellently. He is very fast in a sprint and an excellent puncheur so he will be one of the favourites for the two hilly stages where he can pick up bonus seconds. At his best level, he is outstanding time triallist and on a flat course like this he is usually better than Jungels. In general, the course is better suited to Kwiatkowski than it is to Jungels so everything depends on whether he will return to his best level. If he does, he will win this race.

 

We are very curious to see how Primoz Roglic will do in this race. He was known as one of the biggest climbing talents but no one had any expectations for him in the time trial. That all changed at the Giro where he was a surprise second in the flat opener in Apeldoorn and then he won the hilly long time trial later in the race.

 

Since then he has been working even more on his TT skills and he has won his national championships in dominant fashion. Already at the Giro, he was speaking about this race as a big goal and if he is at his Giro level in the time trials, he could very well take the overall victory. The final time trial is similar to the one in Apeldoorn so if he is riding at a similar level he could even win the stage. This year he has not been climbing at his best level but his natural asset is his climbing. He should be able to keep up with the best in the two hilly stages and then he will be hard to beat in the TT.

 

Is Philippe Gilbert returning to his best level? Things indicate that he is getting better. He put a difficult spring season behind him when he won two stages in Luxembourg and he was clearly the best rider at the Belgian Championships. He is up against Greg Van Avermaet in the battle for Olympic selection and this race is his chance to prove himself. Hence, his form should be very good and he is brimming with confidence. The two hilly stages are tailor-made for him so he should do well in both of them and pick up as many bonus seconds as possible. Then it will all come down to the final time trial. In 2011 when he could do almost everything, he was a great time triallist but since then he has not been time trialling well. However, if he has a bit of a buffer from the road stages, this is a great race for him.

 

Usually, Jonathan Castroviejo would have been one of the big favourites for this race. The Spaniard was fourth at the World Championships and so is one of the best time triallists in the world, even on a flat course like this. At the same time, he has improved his climbing massively so if he is in great form, he should be able to stay with the best. However, his season was ruined by a bad crash in Algarve and he only made his comeback at the Tour de Suisse. He was much better than expected though and was hoping to be selected for the Tour. That failed but he still has his eyes on the Olympics. This is his chance to prove his form but it remains to be seen how far he has come. If he is back at 100%, he will be very hard to beat in the time trial.

 

Rein Taaramae is always difficult to predict. He can be absolutely great or he can be riding very poorly. Last year he was amazing in August where he won both the Vuelta a Burgos and the Arctic Race of Norway and after a slow start he was flying in the final part of the Giro where he won the queen stage. Furthermore, he dominated the Tour de Slovenie in June where he was second in the time trial and won the queen stage. Since then he has been preparing for the Olympics and the Vuelta so he should still be riding very well but with Taaramae you never know. He should be one of the best in the hilly stages but unfortunately he lacks the explosiveness. On the other hand, he could turn out to be the best on the climbs. He is not a TT specialist for this kind of flat course and he hasn’t really been time trialling well in the last couple of years. However, he has done good time trials in the past so if his form is great, he can win this race.

 

Andrey Amador returns to action after the Giro so no one knows how he is going. On paper, the race suits him pretty well though. He is a great time triallist, even on a flat power course like this, so everything will depend on his climbing. Unfortunately, he is a bit of diesel engine and he is not suited to the explosive Polish climbs. It will be about limiting his losses and then trying to strike in the time trial. There are better time triallists than him but among the GC riders he is one of the best. He is pretty inconsistent though and as he hasn’t raced for a while, his form is uncertain. However, he is preparing for the Olympics so he should be pretty good.

 

Leopold König’s season has been ruined by a knee injury but he returned to action at the Tour de Suisse. He was much better than expected and then went on to beat Jan Barta at the Czech TT Championships. He should be even better by now and this makes him a strong contender for this race. He is a very good climber but he is not explosive so it will be about limiting his losses in the hilly stages. He will be ready to strike in the time trials where he has improved a lot. His win at Nationals proves his progress, just like his amazing fifth place in the final Tour TT two years ago. If he can deliver a similar performance here, he will be one of the favourites.

 

Dario Cataldo was the final rider to be deleted from the Astana roster from the Tour de France and now he will have to focus on the Tour de Pologne instead. Much will depend on whether he has maintained his motivation and form but if he is at his best, it’s a great race for him. He is a good climber with a fast sprint so he should be able to pick up bonus seconds in the hilly stages. He is a very good time triallist too even though he prefers hillier courses. Unfortunately, he has not been time trialling at his usual level in recent years so he needs to return to his best to win the race.

 

Tim Wellens is aiming for the GC in this race and he is always hard to predict as he is very inconsistent. He seemed to be very tired at the end of the Giro but then marked his return to form with a great performance at Nationals where he was second behind Gilbert. Last year he was also very tired at the Tour and then he was flying a few months later. If it’s the same this year, he should be one of the best in the hilly stages which suit him pretty well. He is not a real TT specialist but sometimes he does surprisingly good TTs. If he can do so again, he is a contender in this race.

 

Nicolas Roche was disappointed not to get selected for the Tour but he proved his form by winning the double at the Irish Championships. He will be keen to show himself here and he seems to be very motivated. With his explosive climbing skills and fast sprint, the two hilly stages suit him really well. The big challenge will be the time trial. He has done some good TTs in the past but he has been a bit inconsistent. This course may be a bit too flat for him.

 

Diego Ulissi is a perennial contender in this race. He is tailor-made for the hilly stages where he is one of the favourites after having finished second in both two years ago. That should allow him to pick up bonus seconds but the time trial will be a problem. He is an excellent time triallist on hilly, technical courses but this one is too much about power. Last year he was far behind the best in the TT and unfortunately there is a big risk that it will be the same this year.

 

One of the big question marks is Simon Yates. The Brit is returning to racing following his short suspension and reports are that he has been training well during his break from racing. He is one of the most talented puncheurs in the world and has proved his class at the WorldTour level on numerous occasions. Much will depend on his form as he usually needs a bit of racing to be at 100% but if he is good, he could be flying in the queen stages. Unfortunately, the time trial will make it hard for him to win the race.

 

A few years ago it looked like Sergei Chernetskii was destined for a great future but then everything seemed to go wrong. For a few years, he was far from his best level and he did very little to confirm his potential. However, this year he seems to have returned to his former level. He was flying at the Tour de Suisse where he finished in the top 10 overall and he won the Russian TT championships. He has always been a good time triallist but he has failed to do well at the international level in recent years. The course is a bit too much about power so it will be hard for him to win the race but with his fast sprint and good climbing skills, he should do very well in the hilly stages if he has his Tour de Suisse form.

 

Zdenek Stybar is suited to the hilly stages. The Czech was disappointed to miss out on Tour selection so much will depend on his motivation and form. However, he will be one of the favourites for the hilly stages if he is at his best level as he is both an explosive climber and a fast sprinter. Unfortunately, he has never really done a good TT so he needs a solid buffer for the final stage to take the overall win.

 

Finally, we will point to Giovanni Visconti. The Italian is a fast sprinter and so he is tailor-made for the two hilly stages. In the past, he was also a pretty good time triallist but unfortunately he has not been at his best level in recent years. Furthermore, he finished the Giro with a small fracture so we doubt that he is in a good condition. However, he is one of the riders with the skillset to win this kind of race.

 

***** Bob Jungels

**** Michal Kwiatkowski, Primoz Roglic

*** Philippe Gilbert, Jonathan Castroviejo, Rein Taaramae, Andrey Amador, Leopold König

** Dario Cataldo, Tim Wellens, Nicolas Roche, Diego Ulissi, Simon Yates, Sergei Chernetskii, Zdenek Stybar, Giovanni Visconti

* Rigoberto Uran, Bart De Clercq, Victor De La Parte, Pieter Serry, Kanstantsin Siutsou, Ben Hermans, Sergey Firsanov, Simon Spilak, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Felix Grossschartener, Ryder Hesjedal, Louis Vervaeke, Jack Haig, Laurens De Plus, Koen Bouwman, Davide Formolo, Michael Woods, Victor Campenaerts, Tobias Ludvigsson